Kevin Francis: Better effort, same result as Ottawa loses to Toronto again

Beautiful irony in Amadio sinking their ship right at the end there... revenge of the misjudged trade return for Christian Wolanin. Way to pick up a young C, then not even offer a QO... you know, because Belleville is just loaded with great C prospects at the moment. I mean, at least make another team use a waiver claim vs. just losing him for absolutely nothing... he was a 25yo PPG AHL player, if nothing else. Not to mention that if White is hurt, it means they have no choice but to overplay Pinto/Tierney, and then God knows who at #4C.

They really need a 2nd line so badly. Don't get me wrong, I really like Pinto, but I'm not convinced that he's a #2C in the NHL yet. In fact, Norris is only barely established as a #2C in the NHL... and that's assuming he doesn't take any have any kind sophomore slump. Add it up, and they're effectively going to hang Stutzle out to dry, without any kind of decent offensive support. Case in point, the guy in camp with the most career points in an NHL season is still on a PTO... though I think everyone would like to see Ennis signed, as he's certainly played his way onto the roster in the pre-season.

Again, this is why I have sympathy for Tkachuk... why on Earth would he sign for 8yrs with this horse$hit going on? Of course, if White's injury is serious it might have just put $1M or $2M on the table in terms of reclaimed insurance money, given his $4.75M salary for the coming year. Maybe that will become the cherry on top for a Tkachuk deal, which either way needs to get done very soon. Because Tierney, Sanford and Watson just became the team's 3rd/4th/5th highest paid forwards, and that's simply not acceptable.

Beautiful irony in Amadio sinking their ship right at the end there... revenge of the misjudged trade return for Christian Wolanin. Way to pick up a young C, then not even offer a QO... you know, because Belleville is just loaded with great C prospects at the moment. I mean, at least make another team use a waiver claim vs. just losing him for absolutely nothing... he was a 25yo PPG AHL player, if nothing else. Not to mention that if White is hurt, it means they have no choice but to overplay Pinto/Tierney, and then God knows who at #4C.
- khawk

I will answer this one first for you. Sens wouldnt pay him what he asked on the 2 way deal. Leafs are paying 400k in AHL, 750k in Toronto. Once again, our owner hurts the GM in this spot. It's absolutely amazing! Then everyone asks why only 1500 fans showed up tonight.

You said it Khawk…

Also, if White is injured long term? What’s the cap ramifications? How far under the floor are we?

They really need a 2nd line so badly. Don't get me wrong, I really like Pinto, but I'm not convinced that he's a #2C in the NHL yet. In fact, Norris is only barely established as a #2C in the NHL... and that's assuming he doesn't take any have any kind sophomore slump. Add it up, and they're effectively going to hang Stutzle out to dry, without any kind of decent offensive support. Case in point, the guy in camp with the most career points in an NHL season is still on a PTO... though I think everyone would like to see Ennis signed, as he's certainly played his way onto the roster in the pre-season.
- khawk

I truly believe we will find out in the first 20 games exactly where the Sens stand with the top 2 center spots. But you make great points my friend.

You said it Khawk…

Also, if White is injured long term? What’s the cap ramifications? How far under the floor are we?
- riceroni

Great point. Sens are -1,151,667 away from the floor as it stands. Sign Ennis and then they get there I guess.

Again, this is why I have sympathy for Tkachuk... why on Earth would he sign for 8yrs with this horse$hit going on? Of course, if White's injury is serious it might have just put $1M or $2M on the table in terms of reclaimed insurance money, given his $4.75M salary for the coming year. Maybe that will become the cherry on top for a Tkachuk deal, which either way needs to get done very soon. Because Tierney, Sanford and Watson just became the team's 3rd/4th/5th highest paid forwards, and that's simply not acceptable.
- khawk

Ah very true on the injury! The longer the Tkachuk saga goes, the worst this is all going to get for both sides. Nobody wins in the long run. As I mentioned in the last blog comments section. Dont think Brady didnt forget what happened to Mark Stone a few years ago, he was living with him then and saw it all unfold!

Man, to think those 3 you mentioned about salaries, yikes!

I don't understand why anyone would think this is a playoff team. They are at the very least one year away from challenging for a playoff spot and three years away from being a legitimate contender.

They are young and filled with promise and need to add some high end talent up front and hope something gells in net but they will be a very good team and possibly a multi year juggernaut if only given a little time.

Edmonton is a perfect example. When they won the lottery to get Mcdavid I thought the cup was coming back to Canada in two or three years but they couldn't wait so now they will never win a cup.

Take a pill, Ottawa. It's in the palm of your hands. Be patient.

I don't understand why anyone would think this is a playoff team. They are at the very least one year away from challenging for a playoff spot and three years away from being a legitimate contender.

They are young and filled with promise and need to add some high end talent up front and hope something gells in net but they will be a very good team and possibly a multi year juggernaut if only given a little time.

Edmonton is a perfect example. When they won the lottery to get Mcdavid I thought the cup was coming back to Canada in two or three years but they couldn't wait so now they will never win a cup.

Take a pill, Ottawa. It's in the palm of your hands. Be patient.
- Whatisavailable

Well said, they will be a tough out each night they play that is for sure! Too thin up the middle and their D is missing pieces too.

Bruins placed RW Zach Senyshyn on waivers. He is an Ottawa kid, former 1st round pick. Should the Sens take a flyer on him?

Definitely worth keeping an eye on this player!

https://www.nhltraderumor...gers-may-trade-young.html

Reports regarding Tkachuk appear to be indicating that it's actually term that's the issue, not $$$. This is absolutely not a surprise to me, given the number of times I've been saying that it's the team that's pushing the 8yr deal so hard. All the more reason to just move forward with a bridge deal... $6M x 3yrs would put him right on par with Dahlin, a fellow top-4 pick from his draft class. Then give the "C" to Chabot, and just move things forward.

Bruins placed RW Zach Senyshyn on waivers. He is an Ottawa kid, former 1st round pick. Should the Sens take a flyer on him?
- Kevin Francis

No.

Seriously, they just ended the drama of the Logan Brown situation... Zach Senyshyn has even more drama in his draft story, and has accomplished far less in the AHL than Logan Brown. I really have no idea why they'd take a chance on him as a 24yo RW, when they could just sign Ennis as the #3RW.

Reports regarding Tkachuk appear to be indicating that it's actually term that's the issue, not $$$. This is absolutely not a surprise to me, given the number of times I've been saying that it's the team that's pushing the 8yr deal so hard. All the more reason to just move forward with a bridge deal... $6M x 3yrs would put him right on par with Dahlin, a fellow top-4 pick from his draft class. Then give the "C" to Chabot, and just move things forward.
- khawk

I have never been a fan of the 8 year deal for Tkachuk. Cannot reason through why that option would appeal to the Sens. This is not a McDavid or a McKinnon. This, at best, is a Landeskog. Great team player, but $7m x 3 seems the right number at this time. I believe, if the Sens manage this situation prudently they should be able to produce a very positive outcome.

Injury to White makes me think Sens may have been too quick to send Ridley Greig back to Brandon.

I don't understand why anyone would think this is a playoff team. They are at the very least one year away from challenging for a playoff spot and three years away from being a legitimate contender.

They are young and filled with promise and need to add some high end talent up front and hope something gells in net but they will be a very good team and possibly a multi year juggernaut if only given a little time.

Edmonton is a perfect example. When they won the lottery to get Mcdavid I thought the cup was coming back to Canada in two or three years but they couldn't wait so now they will never win a cup.

Take a pill, Ottawa. It's in the palm of your hands. Be patient.
- Whatisavailable

A+

Making the playoffs has always been an overrated measure of success for a developing team in the NHL. It was different for a mature team like Montreal. They were able to sneak into the playoffs and have a great run with a mix of young guys and veterans. For the Canadiens it was a last gasp, not a step forward towards the ultimate triumph.

Folks need to get their head around the idea that the Sens will want to move Brady sometime in the next 3 years. It is a very long time to be able to manage an outstanding result.

Injury to White makes me think Sens may have been too quick to send Ridley Greig back to Brandon.
- spatso

Give the guy time to gain the strength etc to be an NHLer.
Rushing guys into the league who aren't quite ready sets them back in the long run, look at KK in Montreal as an example.
Patience is key!
I think Ottawa has a chance to be a very deep team up front, not so sure about the defense and goaltending though.

Injury to White makes me think Sens may have been too quick to send Ridley Greig back to Brandon.
- spatso

I think Greig needs more time regardeless. He still only 19. Spend a year in Brandon, then compete for a spot in camp next year.

I hope you all listened to the Cam and Strick podcast. They have said Dorion didnt get back to Tkachuk's camp for 4-5 days last week. They want a bridge deal now! Way to go Dorion, way to piss off Brady with silence. Your coach says Brady drags the team into battle and is your leader yet, you go silent on your teams future captain!!!!!!!!!

I think Greig needs more time regardeless. He still only 19. Spend a year in Brandon, then compete for a spot in camp next year.
- david22

Agreed!

A+

Making the playoffs has always been an overrated measure of success for a developing team in the NHL. It was different for a mature team like Montreal. They were able to sneak into the playoffs and have a great run with a mix of young guys and veterans. For the Canadiens it was a last gasp, not a step forward towards the ultimate triumph.

Folks need to get their head around the idea that the Sens will want to move Brady sometime in the next 3 years. It is a very long time to be able to manage an outstanding result.
- spatso

If you listened to the podcast that I mentioned in my blog, you are correct, he will be moved in the next 3 years! Yet again, our owner and management have failed another star player. NO wonder NOBODY is going to the games!

I hope you all listened to the Cam and Strick podcast. They have said Dorion didnt get back to Tkachuk's camp for 4-5 days last week. They want a bridge deal now! Way to go Dorion, way to piss off Brady with silence. Your coach says Brady drags the team into battle and is your leader yet, you go silent on your teams future captain!!!!!!!!!
- Kevin Francis

But it does not work that way.

Tkachuk camp might want a bridge deal now. But, the Sens believe that a bridge deal is not the outcome that works best for the Sens. So, if Brady does in fact sign a bridge deal, he will not be captain. And, if the Sens decide to offer the bridge deal, they also turn on the clock leading to the date where he is finally traded.

The fact that the issue goes public in St. Louis tells me the Tkachuk camp has blinked. This is now an entirely different negotiation. It the Sens best interest to continue to slow down the process.

Sens must avoid signing a deal that would require a $10m qualifying offer for year 4. Long term is now off the table unless the Tkachuk camp wants to revisit the option. 2 years at $6m. is a great number if you are looking to trade the asset during or at the end of year 2.

Nobody has been more critical of Melnyk than what I have. But, he not the villain. In fact, there is no villain or failure. Brady has an option to go UFA in four years. He wants to preserve that option. So, how do the Sens exploit the opportunity?

Sens must avoid signing a deal that would require a $10m qualifying offer for year 4. Long term is now off the table unless the Tkachuk camp wants to revisit the option. 2 years at $6m. is a great number if you are looking to trade the asset during or at the end of year 2.

Nobody has been more critical of Melnyk than what I have. But, he not the villain. In fact, there is no villain or failure. Brady has an option to go UFA in four years. He wants to preserve that option. So, how do the Sens exploit the opportunity?
- spatso

There's no reason whatsoever to believe that Tkachuk is trying to get paid $10M in the 3rd year of a bridge deal. The only $$$ we know of are what the team has leaked to the media despite the "we don't negotiate in the media" claim... which is $7Mx6yr, and $8Mx8yr. By that compensation logic, a 3yr deal for Tkachuk would come in at the $6M range, and could easily have something like a 4-6-8 payout structure... for comparison, Dahlin's deal is more like 5-6-7. Pettersson got the $10.2M 3rd year payout, but he's: a) the more established offensive player, and b) far more underpaid at $7.4M/yr than Tkachuk would be at $6.0M/yr.

If Melnyk wants to keep Tkachuk long-term, he's going to have to actually put his money where his mouth is... and NOT just in terms of Tkachuk's contract. If the team payroll isn't up to at least $75M/yr by Tkachuk's 3rd year, then he will leave because Melnyk will have lied about his intention to spend to the cap limit. If the team is playing well, and rounding into true contender form, then I have a hard time not seeing Tkachuk staying to help lead that team. It's really as simple as that, but Melnyk isn't going to get away with just signing Tkachuk/Chabot long-term to sell jerseys, but keep the team down at the salary cap floor.

Any teams over the cap, or in a real cap crunch that could be a trade target for the sens if they need to get over the floor?

Seems like a couple people might not realize, but FYI qualifying offers can never be more than 120% of the AAV of a contract. That changed summer of 2020, though it isn't retroactive to contracts signed prior to 2020. Meaning Brady's QO will be either his salary of the last year of his bridge contract, or 120% of the cap hit of his bridge contract, whichever is lower.