Jacob Billington: Welcome to the Jets Mailbag; Comparing Lowry, Scheifele league-wide

Well done Jacob. Thanks for doing this.

Well done Jacob. Thanks for doing this.
- Ross77

Thanks, Ross! I hope I gave you the kind of answer you were looking for. I appreciate the question, and loved having that in-depth look at Scheifele. I would love to find a model that I can look at more specific comparisons, but in the meantime, I hope this sufficed!

I would appreciate if you could all share the article with your fellow Jets friends, or even just some folks that would like the aspect of comparing the league's 1C and 3C's, as well as some explanations on many of the advnaced stats used. Thanks everyone!

I looked up some fun things on money puck,
Lowry has 145 defensive zone starts compared to Shief 119. Did you find Lowry’s QOC? Shief has a team worst X goals against at 58 where Lowry is 31.

My assessment, Shief is now a number 2 Center because of he is poor defensively and Lowry should be our 4th line Center and PK’er next year. It’s time to let Barron and Gus fight it out or play together on third line. Winner gets Center and loser plays wing but both on third line.

I looked up some fun things on money puck,
Lowry has 145 defensive zone starts compared to Shief 119. Did you find Lowry’s QOC? Shief has a team worst X goals against at 58 where Lowry is 31.

My assessment, Shief is now a number 2 Center because of he is poor defensively and Lowry should be our 4th line Center and PK’er next year. It’s time to let Barron and Gus fight it out or play together on third line. Winner gets Center and loser plays wing but both on third line.
- Ross77

I fully agree. If Dubois was a very good defensive/two-way guy, which he is headed in the right direction in some aspects, the 1A/1B could work great. Lowry would be an ideal 4C, and also agree on Barron and Gus. Very good assessment.

In terms of Lowry's QoC, he is in the 27th percentile among 3rd liners. His offense ranks at the 40th, but his defense is in the 87th. Pretty much exactly as I would predict, strictly based off of the eye test

Lots of work put in here Jacob, good job!

I'll take more time to read this more in depth later but just quickly looking at that 3C list I'm not sure all those guys are their teams 3C's so not sure those are the right comparisons, not a criticism of the work you did but for example I'm pretty sure Cirelli is Tampas 2C, not sure these are all apples to apples comparisons if you get what I'm saying. I know for quite awhile now Haula has been the 2C with Pastrnak and Hall in Boston and Coyle has been the 3C, also RNH plays a lot of wing with Draisaitl and Jarnkrok was just acquired at the TDL by Calgary so he hasn't been their 3C for long if he even is now and Idk if he was playing center in Seattle.

"We established that among 3rd line centers, Adam Lowry is on the lower end of the ratings, but the on-ice production and impact is what is really important, and I do not believe that he is causing any kind of hindrance on this team."

I really disagree with this line of thinking, a 3C that only has 12 even strength points and will likely finish with 20-24 points is a hindrance, being an offensive black hole that also sucks the offense out of his linemates games negates whatever positive impacts he supposedly has.

Great piece. I dont read many bloggers on here, but between you and Kevin F, I make a point of reading your guys stuff. Nice work and I hope the Jets fans appreciate it.

Lots of work put in here Jacob, good job!

I'll take more time to read this more in depth later but just quickly looking at that 3C list I'm not sure all those guys are their teams 3C's so not sure those are the right comparisons, not a criticism of the work you did but for example I'm pretty sure Cirelli is Tampas 2C, not sure these are all apples to apples comparisons if you get what I'm saying. I know for quite awhile now Haula has been the 2C with Pastrnak and Hall in Boston and Coyle has been the 3C, also RNH plays a lot of wing with Draisaitl and Jarnkrok was just acquired at the TDL by Calgary so he hasn't been their 3C for long if he even is now and Idk if he was playing center in Seattle.

"We established that among 3rd line centers, Adam Lowry is on the lower end of the ratings, but the on-ice production and impact is what is really important, and I do not believe that he is causing any kind of hindrance on this team."

I really disagree with this line of thinking, a 3C that only has 12 even strength points and will likely finish with 20-24 points is a hindrance, being an offensive black hole that also sucks the offense out of his linemates games negates whatever positive impacts he supposedly has.
- JetFuel

Yeah it was really hard to establish the 3C on a lot of teams. Cirelli was list as 3C behind Point and Stamkos on DailyFaceoff, and as I mentioned in the article, many teams have middle six lineup changes often, so it is hard to tell with some. Stamkos played a lot of wing beside Cirelli on the 2nd line, but that has been about 50/50. For a lot of teams I went with TOI. The Islanders, for example, had Barzal listed as their 3C, but I went with Pageau for the 3C, as him, Barzal and Nelson are all within like 45 seconds of TOI of each other. It was tough to define each team's 3C.

As for the Lowry quote, I guess I could've worded it better. His defensive numbers are quite good, and though the low PPG can be a hindrance, the Jets could absolutely build a competitive team with Lowry as the 3C. As the 4C is most idea as I mentioned, but he is not the biggest issue the Jets need to solve in my opinion.

**Added note, in a previous comment, I had noted that Gus and Barron should absolutely be fighting for that 3rd line C spot, moving Lowry down. A combination of Harkins, Lowry, Toninato, Barron, Stastny, Sanford, Appleton, Gustafsson, Brooks, and eventually Torgersson will make for a great bottom six, plus any UFA signings

I appreciate the feedback!

Great piece. I dont read many bloggers on here, but between you and Kevin F, I make a point of reading your guys stuff. Nice work and I hope the Jets fans appreciate it.
- LawyerSens4Life

Thank you very much! This is great to hear. Glad I am putting out content people enjoy, especially from other fan-bases! Side note to that, Kevin is great at what he does! Highly reccommend his work as well

Great piece Jacob! I really appreciated the Scheifele look. I have always believed that he has had to deal with the toughest competition. Lowry has always excelled against other 3rd and 4th liners as I have always stated.

I don’t understand where Scheifele’s offensive production would come from if he is traded. Offence cannot be taught. Structure and defense can be taught!

One thing is for sure the Jets without Mark Scheifele are not much better. See the 6 goals given up to the Panthers tonight!

Great piece Jacob! I really appreciated the Scheifele look. I have always believed that he has had to deal with the toughest competition. Lowry has always excelled against other 3rd and 4th liners as I have always stated.

I don’t understand where Scheifele’s offensive production would come from if he is traded. Offence cannot be taught. Structure and defense can be taught!

One thing is for sure the Jets without Mark Scheifele are not much better. See the 6 goals given up to the Panthers tonight!
- TheUltimateJet

The QoC is an incredibly important stat. Scheifele has some of the hardest matchups among 1st liners, while Lowry is a lot lower among 3rd liners. I would disagree that offense can't be taught, but I get what you are saying.

I don't think anybody thinks the Jets get better by losing Scheifele, rather the argument of having a more well-rounded 1C. Connor, Ehlers, and Dubois all have 30+ goal potential, when given the opportunity to thrive. Add in Perfetti and a great RW with the money Wheeler makes, and that well rounded center, and I don't think the Jets suffer losing Scheifeles offense. Obviously, just taking him out is a loss, but depending on the returning assets in a trade, or the FA acquisition, it is not a losing battle

Great piece Jacob! I really appreciated the Scheifele look. I have always believed that he has had to deal with the toughest competition. Lowry has always excelled against other 3rd and 4th liners as I have always stated.

I don’t understand where Scheifele’s offensive production would come from if he is traded. Offence cannot be taught. Structure and defense can be taught!

One thing is for sure the Jets without Mark Scheifele are not much better. See the 6 goals given up to the Panthers tonight!
- TheUltimateJet

Lowry does not just play against bottom 6, common. You think Lowry starts so many more times in the defensive zone cause the other teams coach through out the 3rd or 4th line. Shief is protected by starting more of his shifts in the O zone

We are not a winning team with Sheif. I’m not saying we have to trade him, but we are losing with him, and losing a lot.

Maybe we should trade him and Helle, tank for Bedard while adding a few other picks and prospects?

Great job Jacob. I wonder how Scheifele and the defense will do with better defensive systems and different fore checking and back checking philosophy's? The Jets traded Laine to get another #1 center so trading Scheifele now would mean they will be looking for another replacement. This doesn't make sense. I want to see what a new head coach and staff will do with some of the existing players before trading Scheifele.

Great job Jacob. I wonder how Scheifele and the defense will do with better defensive systems and different fore checking and back checking philosophy's? The Jets traded Laine to get another #1 center so trading Scheifele now would mean they will be looking for another replacement. This doesn't make sense. I want to see what a new head coach and staff will do with some of the existing players before trading Scheifele.
- islansjet

I really wonder what impact a new coaching staff will have. It's so hard to judge, as Lowry is just a product of Maurice. Now, I don't think any major sources indicated the interest of a trade for 55, but if that's the case, I wonder how they look at Perfetti and his future down the middle. Could they sign an aging mentor, teach Perfetti in a year they expect to finish low. Time will tell

A new coaching staff is the next logical step. Star goalie, experienced defense, star centers, several star wingers and then a season like this? They haven’t been more (or even equal to) the sum of the parts since 2018. It doesn’t make sense to trade away talent without making significant coaching changes first, and the GM too for failing to see the issue a couple years ago… and a decimated defense after 2018 was likely what bought Maurice more time was caused by the same GM being caught unaware or unprepared or both. All fireable offenses.

Great job Jacob. I wonder how Scheifele and the defense will do with better defensive systems and different fore checking and back checking philosophy's? The Jets traded Laine to get another #1 center so trading Scheifele now would mean they will be looking for another replacement. This doesn't make sense. I want to see what a new head coach and staff will do with some of the existing players before trading Scheifele.
- islansjet

Exactly. And while we were at it let’s not talk about a coaching change without stating the obvious- that it is Chevy’s time to go too.

Exactly. And while we were at it let’s not talk about a coaching change without stating the obvious- that it is Chevy’s time to go too.
- 2.0

I'm fairly neutral on keeping/moving on from Chevy, but what are the big standouts for you, in favour of moving on?

I see the biggest one, as I mentioned in the article, being the lack of a plan, especially with the NHL-ready prospects. But I would like to hear what some of you have to say in favour of moving on

Lowry does not just play against bottom 6, common. You think Lowry starts so many more times in the defensive zone cause the other teams coach through out the 3rd or 4th line. Shief is protected by starting more of his shifts in the O zone

We are not a winning team with Sheif. I’m not saying we have to trade him, but we are losing with him, and losing a lot.

Maybe we should trade him and Helle, tank for Bedard while adding a few other picks and prospects?
- Ross77

I guess you missed Jacob’s reply to this post, where he pointed out that Scheifele takes on some of the hardest competition amongst first liners.

Yeah it was really hard to establish the 3C on a lot of teams. Cirelli was list as 3C behind Point and Stamkos on DailyFaceoff, and as I mentioned in the article, many teams have middle six lineup changes often, so it is hard to tell with some. Stamkos played a lot of wing beside Cirelli on the 2nd line, but that has been about 50/50. For a lot of teams I went with TOI. The Islanders, for example, had Barzal listed as their 3C, but I went with Pageau for the 3C, as him, Barzal and Nelson are all within like 45 seconds of TOI of each other. It was tough to define each team's 3C.

As for the Lowry quote, I guess I could've worded it better. His defensive numbers are quite good, and though the low PPG can be a hindrance, the Jets could absolutely build a competitive team with Lowry as the 3C. As the 4C is most idea as I mentioned, but he is not the biggest issue the Jets need to solve in my opinion.

**Added note, in a previous comment, I had noted that Gus and Barron should absolutely be fighting for that 3rd line C spot, moving Lowry down. A combination of Harkins, Lowry, Toninato, Barron, Stastny, Sanford, Appleton, Gustafsson, Brooks, and eventually Torgersson will make for a great bottom six, plus any UFA signings

I appreciate the feedback!
- Jacob Billington

Yeah Barzal is definitely the Islanders 1C and Pageau is their 3C, damn the Islanders are strong down the middle.

I really don't see any way they can build a competitive team with Lowry at 3C, this team struggles to score at even strength and a BIG part of that is cause they get nothing from Lowry's line! I do think getting a better 3C is close to the biggest issue they need to solve, secondary scoring would solve sooo many of this team's issues but that's never happening with Lowry at 3C.

Look at what Appleton has done since coming over from Seattle, 1 frigging goal! He was a lot more productive on an apparently worse team in Seattle. Sanford's points in Winnipeg came from when he was on the 2nd line, there's a common denominator at play here...

Florida like other top teams gets scoring throughout their top 3 lines with some contributions from their 4th whereas the Jets have constantly relied on their top 2 lines and PP to do all the scoring, it won't work.

Great piece Jacob! I really appreciated the Scheifele look. I have always believed that he has had to deal with the toughest competition. Lowry has always excelled against other 3rd and 4th liners as I have always stated.

I don’t understand where Scheifele’s offensive production would come from if he is traded. Offence cannot be taught. Structure and defense can be taught!

One thing is for sure the Jets without Mark Scheifele are not much better. See the 6 goals given up to the Panthers tonight!
- TheUltimateJet

Lowry excels at faceoffs, hitting and fighting which are all things fancy stat believers hate and think aren't necessary or important yet they think Adam Lowry is irreplaceable...

I guess you missed Jacob’s reply to this post, where he pointed out that Scheifele takes on some of the hardest competition amongst first liners.
- TheUltimateJet

Saying it another way opposing coaches put their best players against 55 to exploit a weakness while Jets coaching is waiting for him to elevate the rest of his game. He hasn’t risen to the whole challenge.

I'm fairly neutral on keeping/moving on from Chevy, but what are the big standouts for you, in favour of moving on?

I see the biggest one, as I mentioned in the article, being the lack of a plan, especially with the NHL-ready prospects. But I would like to hear what some of you have to say in favour of moving on
- Jacob Billington

*12 years starting nearly blank slate, full cap budget, middling results
*has hired three coaches
*gave pavelik a 5 year, 5 mil contract
*allowed 4 years of floundering after a single playoff run: poor defensive play, inconsistent efforts, bad special teams play with exception of a few runs on the pp, doesn’t trust his scouts enough to call up the players they choose and prefers players cast off by other teams, zero pre-emptive roster moves - all are forced
*12 years

Saying it another way opposing coaches put their best players against 55 to exploit a weakness while Jets coaching is waiting for him to elevate the rest of his game. He hasn’t risen to the whole challenge.
- 2.0

Even during Jets home games, when they have the last change? Maurice consistently put Scheifele against other teams top lines. There was a website that I saw a couple of years ago and for some reason I have not been able to relocate it. The QoC clearly showed Scheifele up against top lines whether at home or on the road. I have pointed this out in the past, especially when highlighting his ice time.

Its amazing that this team turned what should have been a clear advantage against other teams into one of its weaknesses. Seeing what Copp is doing in NYR, it really makes me question this teams talent evaluation.

Lowry excels at faceoffs, hitting and fighting which are all things fancy stat believers hate and think aren't necessary or important yet they think Adam Lowry is irreplaceable...
- JetFuel

Lowry will; become the first bottom 3 forward to spend his entire career with the same franchise.