Ryan Wilson: Penguins get torched + Phil Kessel enters record book in style Penguins get torched + Phil Kessel enters record book in style

Rutherford also took a team being run into the ground and turned them into B2B champs....then ran them into the ground hahah

Crazy that as bad that looked at times last night, at 5 on 5, the Flames only had 2 more HDCF's than the Pens....13-11. Penguins outshot them 25-24 at 5 on 5 and had the higher team xGF% at 5 on 5.

1st period was really bad but it seemed to me like the Flames, even though they didnt convert, gained a lot of pep and momentum from the very early power play they had, that carried through that whole period...then the Pens utterly dominated the 2nd period.

Mental gaffes aside, probably nervous finally getting a big league chance and knowing how hard it is for young guys to get time with Sully, I thought Poulin had a good battle level, hustle and speed. I wouldn't mind seeing some more of him with the big club. So early in the season, and Pens have a good point % in standings, why not give him an extended look. If one of Jake or Zucks comes back next game and they opt to sit Poulin for Cags...well....I wont agree with it haha.

Very cerebral pass off the pads by Carter to give Malkin the easy tap. Wish more guys would make the smart play rather than miss high and wide on 60percent of their shots.

Mental gaffes aside, probably nervous finally getting a big league chance and knowing how hard it is for young guys to get time with Sully, I thought Poulin had a good battle level, hustle and speed. I wouldn't mind seeing some more of him with the big club. So early in the season, and Pens have a good point % in standings, why not give him an extended look. If one of Jake or Zucks comes back next game and they opt to sit Poulin for Cags...well....I wont agree with it haha.
- MattStrat

Poulin was one of the better players all night last night. Full of energy being his first game , but he is absolutely a better payer that Caggiula. He's the only player that's more invisible then McGinn, (who actually wasn't horrible last night).

The coaching staff needs to dedicate multiple practices to exiting the zone under pressure. We're awful at it.

Poulin was one of the better players all night last night. Full of energy being his first game , but he is absolutely a better payer that Caggiula. He's the only player that's more invisible then McGinn, (who actually wasn't horrible last night).

The coaching staff needs to dedicate multiple practices to exiting the zone under pressure. We're awful at it.
- Thorny87

I feel like I saw the Dmen with the puck in their zone multiple times with time to make a pass or chip it out, but they let the forecheck come in, tried to peel to the boards, and then lost the puck which led to sustained zone time. These were forechecks coming from line changes, so it wasn't even established zone time yet.

I feel like I saw the Dmen with the puck in their zone multiple times with time to make a pass or chip it out, but they let the forecheck come in, tried to peel to the boards, and then lost the puck which led to sustained zone time. These were forechecks coming from line changes, so it wasn't even established zone time yet.
- j.boyd919

Yeah... They had time to move the puck. They kept playing hot potato once the forecheck arrived. Then the forwards got beat on the boards when the puck got to them.

Poulin was one of the better players all night last night. Full of energy being his first game , but he is absolutely a better payer that Caggiula. He's the only player that's more invisible then McGinn, (who actually wasn't horrible last night).

The coaching staff needs to dedicate multiple practices to exiting the zone under pressure. We're awful at it.
- Thorny87

I would love to see video of the Pens practicing defending sustained pressure in the defensive zone. Like the defending lobe and d men have no sticks or sticks turned up side down like little kids.

I feel like I saw the Dmen with the puck in their zone multiple times with time to make a pass or chip it out, but they let the forecheck come in, tried to peel to the boards, and then lost the puck which led to sustained zone time. These were forechecks coming from line changes, so it wasn't even established zone time yet.
- j.boyd919

Haha. Yup. Any time they reversed it resulted in getting pinned in. Like they all need 2-3 seconds to re read the play before making a pass.

Also, the ring up the boards to no one, or that half ass'd angle off the skate to the center over and over again. The Flames just pinched and smothered that every time.

It looked like the first time we played the Isles in the playoffs in 2019. It's a win just to clear the zone.

I saw someone post this on Pens Twitter.

In 31 minutes of PP time Letang has registered 0 shots!

That can't happen.

I saw someone post this on Pens Twitter.

In 31 minutes of PP time Letang has registered 0 shots!

That can't happen.
- Thorny87

All of the good we saw on the Penguins powerplay in the first game or two has quickly disappeared.

All of the good we saw on the Penguins powerplay in the first game or two has quickly disappeared.
- SuperHenderson13

No Jake.

I saw someone post this on Pens Twitter.

In 31 minutes of PP time Letang has registered 0 shots!

That can't happen.
- Thorny87

hahah what a crazy sh!tty stat....thats ridiculous, actually. I know Petry has been out there on top PP since Jake went down but I wonder if he will ever take over Tangers spot...or at least get an extended look. He has a good shot from the point, whether clapper or wrister, and isn't afraid to do it

Given Phil Kessel was a huge part of two Stanley Cups, one of which he should have won the Conn Smythe, has 400 goals, and is the NHL’s ironman, I’m not sure how you can keep him out of the Hall of Fame. I think he deserves it. If Guy Carbonneau and Kevin Lowe are in…
- Ryan_Wilson

Hard to disagree with the bolded, although Carbonneau at least has 3 Selke's to his name. Lowe was a very good dman on a stacked team, that's about it. I think the Montreal people got Guy in, and Lowe seems like a guy that everyone generally likes. Good old Canadian boys.

And I agree that Kessel should have won the 2016 Conn Smythe as opposed to Crosby's lifetime achievement award, but I never saw Kessel as elite at his position for any substantial length of time, which is my ultimate criteria. A really good player, a really good guy, but Hall of Fame? Not quite. If 400 goals and Cup(s) is reason enough, then Jeff Carter and Corey Perry should get in as well.

I saw someone post this on Pens Twitter.

In 31 minutes of PP time Letang has registered 0 shots!

That can't happen.
- Thorny87

Are you new here? Shots and goals don't matter. How many shots has he attempted, and what is his xSF%?

I was glad Poulin got some real ice time and not tossed on the third line. Makes you wonder though why he didn't get the nod in Edmonton. Not like he doesn't have experience at wing.

Hard to disagree with the bolded, although Carbonneau at least has 3 Selke's to his name. Lowe was a very good dman on a stacked team, that's about it. I think the Montreal people got Guy in, and Lowe seems like a guy that everyone generally likes. Good old Canadian boys.

And I agree that Kessel should have won the 2016 Conn Smythe as opposed to Crosby's lifetime achievement award, but I never saw Kessel as elite at his position for any substantial length of time, which is my ultimate criteria. A really good player, a really good guy, but Hall of Fame? Not quite. If 400 goals and Cup(s) is reason enough, then Jeff Carter and Corey Perry should get in as well.
- jmatchett383

Yes, because Sid didnt do anything to deserve that in 2016 and Kessel, with his 3 more points than Sid, did so much more than Sid to deserve it. I think Kessel deserved it, and would of been totally fine with that, but also think Sid and Murray at least equally are in that chat, Sid more so...scoring 3 of the 4 game winners in an ECF is pretty f'n clutch and I dont think there's anything you can say about Kessel in that run that comes close to that.

Yes, because Sid didnt do anything to deserve that in 2016 and Kessel, with his 3 more points than Sid, did so much more than Sid to deserve it. I think Kessel deserved it, and would of been totally fine with that, but also think Sid and Murray at least equally are in that chat, Sid more so...scoring 3 of the 4 game winners in an ECF is pretty f'n clutch and I dont think there's anything you can say about Kessel in that run that comes close to that.
- MattStrat

It's a joke...calm down.

It's a joke...calm down.
- jmatchett383

Calm AF.

Are you new here? Shots and goals don't matter. How many shots has he attempted, and what is his xSF%?
- jmatchett383

He's definitely over achieved in UEPF% (Unnecessary Extra Passes For)

He's definitely over achieved in UEPF% (Unnecessary Extra Passes For)
- Thorny87

Off-topic but related general bullpooptery stats:

If Alex Ovechkin and I each attempt 100 slap shots from the exact same spot on the ice, uncontested, on the exact same goalie, would we have an identical xGF?

Off-topic but related general bullpooptery stats:

If Alex Ovechkin and I each attempt 100 slap shots from the exact same spot on the ice, uncontested, on the exact same goalie, would we have an identical xGF?
- jmatchett383

Is the exact same person keeping these stats?

Off-topic but related general bullpooptery stats:

If Alex Ovechkin and I each attempt 100 slap shots from the exact same spot on the ice, uncontested, on the exact same goalie, would we have an identical xGF?
- jmatchett383

Shooting Talent Adjusted Expected Goals

While the expected goals model does not factor in a player's shooting skill, we know that some players are better shooters than others. By using bayesian statistics, we can estimate the shooting skill of snipers like Patrick Laine. The problem we are trying to solve is "What is the probability that a player is actually a certain shooting talent level given their performance in the NHL so far?". As there is a lot of luck involved in whether a shot goes in the net or not, a player may get more or less goals over the course of a season than their true shooting talent would reflect.

For a mathematical example: the probability that a shooter is actually a 10% above average talent shooter given their goals exceeds their expected goals by 20% over 1,000 career shots = The percent of skaters with 1,000 career shots so far with historically turn out to be 10% above average shooters during their career multiplied by the chance a truly 10% above expected shooter talent would have exceed their expected goals by 20% over the course of 1,000 random shots divided by the percent of players who have taken 1,000 shots that have 10% goals above expected.

By simulating each player's career shots thousands of times, we can see the probability that a simulated player set to any true shooting talent level (such as 10% above average), would do as well as that player actual has. MoneyPuck ran over 10,000,000 simulations in total for the 800+ players who have played in the 2019-2020 NHL season. The result of this is probability distribution graphs of the likelihood of every player truly being a given shooting talent level, which you can see on the bottom of the player shooting maps. We then take the weighted average of the probabilities to get the best estimate of the player's true shooting talent.

Is the exact same person keeping these stats?
- Thorny87

Yes

Shooting Talent Adjusted Expected Goals

While the expected goals model does not factor in a player's shooting skill, we know that some players are better shooters than others. By using bayesian statistics, we can estimate the shooting skill of snipers like Patrick Laine. The problem we are trying to solve is "What is the probability that a player is actually a certain shooting talent level given their performance in the NHL so far?". As there is a lot of luck involved in whether a shot goes in the net or not, a player may get more or less goals over the course of a season than their true shooting talent would reflect.

For a mathematical example: the probability that a shooter is actually a 10% above average talent shooter given their goals exceeds their expected goals by 20% over 1,000 career shots = The percent of skaters with 1,000 career shots so far with historically turn out to be 10% above average shooters during their career multiplied by the chance a truly 10% above expected shooter talent would have exceed their expected goals by 20% over the course of 1,000 random shots divided by the percent of players who have taken 1,000 shots that have 10% goals above expected.

By simulating each player's career shots thousands of times, we can see the probability that a simulated player set to any true shooting talent level (such as 10% above average), would do as well as that player actual has. MoneyPuck ran over 10,000,000 simulations in total for the 800+ players who have played in the 2019-2020 NHL season. The result of this is probability distribution graphs of the likelihood of every player truly being a given shooting talent level, which you can see on the bottom of the player shooting maps. We then take the weighted average of the probabilities to get the best estimate of the player's true shooting talent.
- Feds91Stammer

Okay, now THAT makes more sense.

Yes



Okay, now THAT makes more sense.
- jmatchett383

From MoneyPuck