Sens Writer: All good things must come to an end. Hawks end Senators winning streak

Sens Writer: All good things must come to an end. Hawks end Senators winning streak
- Eklund

Geez....cmon guys. Da Hawks???? And you don't score a goal???.

Absolutely ridiculous!!!!

Excellent blog.
Good summary of things.
Well done.

positive but not too positive
negative but not too negative


let the commenters form their own thoughts

Carried over from the previous thread...

The team has been very cautious not to mention playoffs as the expectation, and this game is an indicator of why that's the case. It's impressive how far they've come this year, but it's hard to sustain a major winning streak late in the season when so many teams are in the hunt. Case in point, their next 10 games are about as hard as you could imagine, with the next 4 on the road vs. SEA, VAN, CGY, and EDM, followed by a barrage of COL, TOR, PIT, BOS, TBL, and NJD. If they're still within striking distance after that meat-grinder, then they'll have a chance. But it will be an important learning experience for them regardless of outcome.

One thing I did like hearing from DJ Smith was an acknowledgement that they simply weren't ready to play this game, and that it's his job to make sure they are (i.e. showing accountability). Also liked the comments from both Tkachuk and Chabot about talking to Sogaard and making sure he knew it wasn't his fault. It's not to say that Sogaard couldn't have been better on some of those goals, but there was just no structure to their game and far too many odd-man rushes against. When they play a crappy game like that you just need to find a way to learn from it, turn the page, and move on.

Solid job with the blog.

The team lost its composure in the second period, with far too many defensive zone breakdowns and odd man rushes against. The team has played poorly against the west so it will be interesting to see if they can quickly rebound.

Stutzle is absolutely the real deal and will be a top 10 player in the league before too long.

Good job with the blog. FYI, they also set it up so that the Guest Writer pieces are going to be linked to the actual OTT section (i.e. so you can find them somewhere other than the Guest Writer section).

Well now that they've got the dynamic duo of Sanderson and Chychrun manning the blueline they can dump that loser, Chabot, and have plenty of cash to throw at "THE CAT" to entice him into leading the Sens to the promised land.

On a more serious note what is wrong with Zub? Are they playing him injured?

LOVE that last post.
Stirring the pot

Well now that they've got the dynamic duo of Sanderson and Chychrun manning the blueline they can dump that loser, Chabot, and have plenty of cash to throw at "THE CAT" to entice him into leading the Sens to the promised land.

On a more serious note what is wrong with Zub? Are they playing him injured?
- Whatisavailable

Agree 100%. If Ottawa has to make a cap decision on defence, Chabot would be the guy to dump. He is the highest paid but only the third best at the position.

Great write up overall, with one comment for consideration.

I don't think it's fair to pin things on Sogaard as him being unprepared. Other than the first goal that he should have had, where he got a piece of it and it went in off his glove he didn't have any help. The rest of the goals were either off odd-man rushes or missed coverage leading to open shots from the slot. The team didn't support him, or give him the run support needed.

I don't think shots on goal always tell the story when almost every shot was a grade A scoring chance from in close.

Just my thought.

Agree 100%. If Ottawa has to make a cap decision on defence, Chabot would be the guy to dump. He is the highest paid but only the third best at the position.
- SensFan25

Then they need to dump those two losers, Batherson and Pinto, and get people good enough to play with "THE CAT" because no matter who they've tried, Stutzle, Tkachuk and even Norris for a few games before he got hurt, it turns out that nobody on the team is good enough to play with "THE CAT" and if you have any hope of convincing "THE CAT" to continue playing with these losers you're going to have to give him BIG BIG BIG money for 8 years and a full NMC.

People might as well start leaning into the discomfort of the reality that the top-4D is not going to be affordable for long. Depending on the development of the younger D-men (e.g. JBD, Kleven, Thomson), it could very well lead to one of them being traded. Map out next 4 seasons for the current top-4D mix of Chabot, Sanderson, Zub, and Chychrun, you'll get something along the following lines:

2022/23 - $17.2M ($8.0M, $4.6M, $2.5M, $2.1M)
2023/24 - $19.7M ($8.0M, $4.6M, $4.6M, $2.1M)
2024/25 - $22.2M ($8.0M, $5.0M, $4.6M, $4.6M)
2025/26 - $25.6M ($8.0M, $8.0M, $5.0M, $4.6M)
2026/27 - $28.6M ($8.0M, $8.0M, $8.0M, $4.6M)

This accounts for Zub making $4.6M/yr starting in 2023/24, assumes Chychrun will re-sign long-term at $8M/yr in 2025/26, and assumes Sanderson could be signed to a 2yr-$5.0M AAV bridge deal, before signing a long-term $8M/yr deal in 2026/27. So the same 4 players may end up costing over $11M more before the end of the Zub extension, plus Chabot would be heading into the final year of his contract the year after that.

So while it's not an imminent concern, it's also not clear that the salary cap will necessarily increase to >$93M by 2026/27. Things will get a lot spicier on that front in the summer of 2024, when Sanderson will hit RFA status, and a UFA extension could start to be negotiated for Chychrun.

Then they need to dump those two losers, Batherson and Pinto, and get people good enough to play with "THE CAT" because no matter who they've tried, Stutzle, Tkachuk and even Norris for a few games before he got hurt, it turns out that nobody on the team is good enough to play with "THE CAT" and if you have any hope of convincing "THE CAT" to continue playing with these losers you're going to have to give him BIG BIG BIG money for 8 years and a full NMC.
- Whatisavailable

Debrincat Signing Apocalypse!!!

Great write up overall, with one comment for consideration.

I don't think it's fair to pin things on Sogaard as him being unprepared. Other than the first goal that he should have had, where he got a piece of it and it went in off his glove he didn't have any help. The rest of the goals were either off odd-man rushes or missed coverage leading to open shots from the slot. The team didn't support him, or give him the run support needed.

I don't think shots on goal always tell the story when almost every shot was a grade A scoring chance from in close.

Just my thought.
- JoelytheGoalie

Fair assessment. My language was hard towards Sogaard. I also felt the team hung Sogaard out to dry but at the same time, key saves, at key times are key to any victory. Talbot did that in the Rangers game. Sogaard didn't provide that against the Hawks.

However, Sogaard could have stopped everything and the Sens still scored zero times. The skaters deserve the bulk of the blame for sure. It was refreshing to hear DJ Smith take some accountability for the poor effort.

Watched the Coming In Hot podcast where they said that Ottawa allowed 92 (not a typo - that's 92) odd man rushes against in that Chicago game. Not sure if that's ever happened in an NHL game ever before. Must be some kind of record.

It's all Chabot's fault. How can the team win when they've got this 8 million dollar Dman allowing 92 odd man rushes against. Trade him for a bag of pucks first chance you get. DJ has got to stop covering for him.

Coming in Hot Podcast said the Sens gave up 32 odd-man rushes. 92 was said as a joke from Wally.

I didn't see the game. Either number is ridiculous.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iPhPEWWT6ac

The Coming In Hot Podcast 19:40 on the timeline - 92 odd man rushes against - they did laugh and so did I. Must have missed that 32 number because I listened to it again and missed it again.

Just after the 22 minute mark they analyze the second goal on the 4 on 4
Objective analysis is refreshing.

Nice blog.

poope happens.

Have a good belly laugh, move on..

Still a long way to go.

Nice blog.

poope happens.

Have a good belly laugh, move on..

Still a long way to go.
- spatso

Agreed, mostly. Need a real strong push back game vs seattle though

People might as well start leaning into the discomfort of the reality that the top-4D is not going to be affordable for long. Depending on the development of the younger D-men (e.g. JBD, Kleven, Thomson), it could very well lead to one of them being traded. Map out next 4 seasons for the current top-4D mix of Chabot, Sanderson, Zub, and Chychrun, you'll get something along the following lines:

2022/23 - $17.2M ($8.0M, $4.6M, $2.5M, $2.1M)
2023/24 - $19.7M ($8.0M, $4.6M, $4.6M, $2.1M)
2024/25 - $22.2M ($8.0M, $5.0M, $4.6M, $4.6M)
2025/26 - $25.6M ($8.0M, $8.0M, $5.0M, $4.6M)
2026/27 - $28.6M ($8.0M, $8.0M, $8.0M, $4.6M)

This accounts for Zub making $4.6M/yr starting in 2023/24, assumes Chychrun will re-sign long-term at $8M/yr in 2025/26, and assumes Sanderson could be signed to a 2yr-$5.0M AAV bridge deal, before signing a long-term $8M/yr deal in 2026/27. So the same 4 players may end up costing over $11M more before the end of the Zub extension, plus Chabot would be heading into the final year of his contract the year after that.

So while it's not an imminent concern, it's also not clear that the salary cap will necessarily increase to >$93M by 2026/27. Things will get a lot spicier on that front in the summer of 2024, when Sanderson will hit RFA status, and a UFA extension could start to be negotiated for Chychrun.
- khawk

I udnerstand your concern but this is not going to be that* big of a problem if the cap + contracts are managed properly.

Sign Jake Sanderson 3 years @5.5M (3rd and qualifying year can be 7M). Sign Jakob Chychrun to 8 years @7.25M

So here it is after this season:

(8.00, 8.00, 8.00, 8.00, 8.00) - Thomas Chabot
(4.60, 4.60, 7.25, 7.25, 7.25) - Jakob Chychrun
(4.60, 4.60, 4.60, 4.60, UFA) - Artem Zub
(0.93, 5.50, 5.50, 5.50, RFA) - Jake Sanderson

At that time maybe Zub takes a pay cut as he's older or we replace him with a younger, more affordable D-man

Cap Management starting 2024-2025

Top 9 Forwards

8.350 (x6) - Tim Stutzle
8.206 (x4) - Brady Tkachuk
7.950 (x6) - Josh Norris
6.500 (x1) - Claude Giroux
4.975 (x3) - Drake Batherson
2.950 (x2) - Mathieu Joseph

Top 4 D-men

8.00 (x5) - Thomas Chabot
5.50 (x3) - Jake Sanderson
4.60 (x1) - Jakob Chychrun
4.60 (x3) - Artem Zub

If Alex DeBrincat wants more than Tim Stutzle, someone explain to me why he's worth it on a EIGHT YEAR term. I wouldn't go beyond 8.5 and in order to maintain an internal budget, I would keep it at 8.30 max and trade him if he doesn't agree

I udnerstand your concern but this is not going to be that* big of a problem if the cap + contracts are managed properly.

Sign Jake Sanderson 3 years @5.5M (3rd and qualifying year can be 7M). Sign Jakob Chychrun to 8 years @7.25M

So here it is after this season:

(8.00, 8.00, 8.00, 8.00, 8.00) - Thomas Chabot
(4.60, 4.60, 7.25, 7.25, 7.25) - Jakob Chychrun
(4.60, 4.60, 4.60, 4.60, UFA) - Artem Zub
(0.93, 5.50, 5.50, 5.50, RFA) - Jake Sanderson

At that time maybe Zub takes a pay cut as he's older or we replace him with a younger, more affordable D-man
- AlfieisKing

Agreed that the path forward with Jake Sanderson is a bridge deal at a more workable price point. The same will be true for Shane Pinto and Ridley Greig.

Cap Management starting 2024-2025

Top 9 Forwards

8.350 (x6) - Tim Stutzle
8.206 (x4) - Brady Tkachuk
7.950 (x6) - Josh Norris
6.500 (x1) - Claude Giroux
4.975 (x3) - Drake Batherson
2.950 (x2) - Mathieu Joseph

Top 4 D-men

8.00 (x5) - Thomas Chabot
5.50 (x3) - Jake Sanderson
4.60 (x1) - Jakob Chychrun
4.60 (x3) - Artem Zub

If Alex DeBrincat wants more than Tim Stutzle, someone explain to me why he's worth it on a EIGHT YEAR term. I wouldn't go beyond 8.5 and in order to maintain an internal budget, I would keep it at 8.30 max and trade him if he doesn't agree
- AlfieisKing

Debrincat is a 0.85 PPG player. While he is a UFA for most of his next contract, I would want his number to come in under both Tkachuk and Stutzle. He could potentially get $9M+ if he hits the open market but Ottawa would absolutely have to walk away from that.

If Alex DeBrincat wants more than Tim Stutzle, someone explain to me why he's worth it on a EIGHT YEAR term. I wouldn't go beyond 8.5 and in order to maintain an internal budget, I would keep it at 8.30 max and trade him if he doesn't agree
- AlfieisKing

Great contribution! Thanks much. Have to believe everybody here would agree that if you got Cat to sign Batherson's contract it'd be a sing in the streets coup. And I think we can all agree him being paid more than Stutzle or Tkachuk is ludicrous, so the magic number is somewhere between 5-8. His QO is already higher than that, and it's his prerogative to take it. 100k per point is a good value contract for top six forwards, and the player is going to get around 75pts this year. He's younger and cost a lot to acquire so maybe boost the price a touch, 8M for any contract with term. Wouldn't like that as I am still not sold on the fit, but the point is it would be decent value IE not unmovable. It's a tricky situation to be in, but even if the player takes the QO and keeps his current production, he'll still have Tarasenko value with half retained next deadline. Plus if he bets on himself like that, I am expecting a point per 100k to be happy - 92 points. I actually hope Debrincat goes that route and succeeds, proves everyone wrong. He's been doing it since he was drafted, I wouldn't bet against the player.

And don't look now, Sens have TWO blogs on the main blogroll lol.