Mike Augello: Toronto Maple Leafs Top-40 Prospects - #38

Really?

Too bad about tarasenko

Really?
- Pacificgem

Troll.

Too bad about tarasenko
- Fakepartofme

Because he now makes Samsonov angrily believe he’s worth more?

Mike Augello: Toronto Maple Leafs Top-40 Prospects - #38
- mikeinbuffalo

I love your upbeat, optimistic take on him - while failing to note he dropped 7 spots from your last year's list.

Adjusting for eras is a hard game. My uncle will fight to the death that Bobby Orr was the best player he ever watched. I can't change his mind and I can't form a proper opinion because I only have highlights/numbers. We have mystery guys like Mike Bossy that have an air of mystique about them (could he have hit 1000 goals without blowing out his knees?) or some of the Soviet players who had small sample sizes. Then you have to bring in longevity and how much guys like Howe or Jagr being able to play competitively until they were 50 years old vs their prime years of dominance etc.

Complex questions.
- AdamFrench

A friend asked me about this recently, and we thought that perhaps one of the better ways is to simply compare the player to their peers within that year and determine how much larger their points lead was over the next player as a percentage - because the number of games year over year did vary, but the subset of competition within a given year should have been relatively the same. I didn't have the strength of schedule numbers available or any other advanced metric to consider in this, so it was strictly using points by season as a comparative value. The top-20 leaders in NHL history:

Wayne Gretzky in 1986-87 was 41.53% ahead of the next closest.
Wayne Gretzky in 1983-84 was 40.49% ahead of the next closest.
Phil Esposito in 1973-74 was 40% ahead of the next closest.
Wayne Gretzky in 1984-85 was 37.5% ahead of the next closest.
Phil Esposito in 1970-71 was 36.84% ahead of the next closest.
Wayne Gretzky in 1982-83 was 36.73% ahead of the next closest.
Gordie Howe in 1952-53 was 35.79% ahead of the next closest.
Wayne Gretzky in 1985-86 was 34.42% ahead of the next closest.
Connor McDavid in 2020-21 was 34.29% ahead of the next closest.
Wayne Gretzky in 1981-82 was 30.66% ahead of the next closest.
Bobby Orr in 1969-70 was 28.33% ahead of the next closest.
Stan Mikita in 1966-67 was 27.84% ahead of the next closest.
Connor McDavid in 2022-23 was 26.61% ahead of the next closest.
Mario Lemieux in 1995-96 was 25.47% ahead of the next closest.
Gordie Howe in 1951-52 was 24.42% ahead of the next closest.
Gordie Howe in 1950-51 was 23.26% ahead of the next closest.
Phil Esposito in 1972-73 was 20% ahead of the next closest.
Wayne Gretzky in 1990-91 was 19.63% ahead of the next closest.
Bobby Hull in 1965-66 was 19.59% ahead of the next closest.
Phil Esposito in 1971-72 was 18.05% ahead of the next closest.

The things that stood out to me here, having not seen many of these guys play in their prime:

1. For a defenseman like Bobby Orr to do it, it was preposterous - especially to have the 11th most dominant scoring season in NHL history.

2. I had always thought of Gordie Howe as a good player who played a long time - not the best player in the league for YEARS who also played for a long time.

3. I knew Phil Esposito had that 76G/76A season, but I didn't realize that he was that dominant for that long.

4. Connor McDavid is ridiculous.

Edit: You're right though that this excludes some of the historical Soviet greats that we have no objective way to measure at all.

Because he now makes Samsonov angrily believe he’s worth more?
- Dozzer

No, the two arent comparables.
Just too bad he signed with ottawa, was hoping he coule be a replacement for willie if he got moved out this off season

A friend asked me about this recently, and we thought that perhaps one of the better ways is to simply compare the player to their peers within that year and determine how much larger their points lead was over the next player as a percentage - because the number of games year over year did vary, but the subset of competition within a given year should have been relatively the same. I didn't have the strength of schedule numbers available or any other advanced metric to consider in this, so it was strictly using points by season as a comparative value. The top-20 leaders in NHL history:

Wayne Gretzky in 1986-87 was 41.53% ahead of the next closest.
Wayne Gretzky in 1983-84 was 40.49% ahead of the next closest.
Phil Esposito in 1973-74 was 40% ahead of the next closest.
Wayne Gretzky in 1984-85 was 37.5% ahead of the next closest.
Phil Esposito in 1970-71 was 36.84% ahead of the next closest.
Wayne Gretzky in 1982-83 was 36.73% ahead of the next closest.
Gordie Howe in 1952-53 was 35.79% ahead of the next closest.
Wayne Gretzky in 1985-86 was 34.42% ahead of the next closest.
Connor McDavid in 2020-21 was 34.29% ahead of the next closest.
Wayne Gretzky in 1981-82 was 30.66% ahead of the next closest.
Bobby Orr in 1969-70 was 28.33% ahead of the next closest.
Stan Mikita in 1966-67 was 27.84% ahead of the next closest.
Connor McDavid in 2022-23 was 26.61% ahead of the next closest.
Mario Lemieux in 1995-96 was 25.47% ahead of the next closest.
Gordie Howe in 1951-52 was 24.42% ahead of the next closest.
Gordie Howe in 1950-51 was 23.26% ahead of the next closest.
Phil Esposito in 1972-73 was 20% ahead of the next closest.
Wayne Gretzky in 1990-91 was 19.63% ahead of the next closest.
Bobby Hull in 1965-66 was 19.59% ahead of the next closest.
Phil Esposito in 1971-72 was 18.05% ahead of the next closest.

The things that stood out to me here, having not seen many of these guys play in their prime:

1. For a defenseman like Bobby Orr to do it, it was preposterous - especially to have the 11th most dominant scoring season in NHL history.

2. I had always thought of Gordie Howe as a good player who played a long time - not the best player in the league for YEARS who also played for a long time.

3. I knew Phil Esposito had that 76G/76A season, but I didn't realize that he was that dominant for that long.

4. Connor McDavid is ridiculous.

Edit: You're right though that this excludes some of the historical Soviet greats that we have no objective way to measure at all.
- Monkeypunk

It continues to boggle my mind that Esposito was so dominant - he couldn't skate.

My dad is also one of the "nobody was better than Orr" guys.

I'm taking Gretzky, but Orr winning the Art Ross - twice! - is insane.

Never before, never again.

No, the two arent comparables.
Just too bad he signed with ottawa, was hoping he coule be a replacement for willie if he got moved out this off season
- Fakepartofme

Patty Kakes is still available 👍

39th at best

Patty Kakes is still available 👍
- mr.sir

And Toronto is just a cab ride away from his hometown!

Oh, wait...

It continues to boggle my mind that Esposito was so dominant - he couldn't skate.

My dad is also one of the "nobody was better than Orr" guys.

I'm taking Gretzky, but Orr winning the Art Ross - twice! - is insane.

Never before, never again.
- Atomic Wedgie

Erik Karlsson feeding AusTon of fun Matthews will win the Art Ross after McDavid blows a tire.

No, the two arent comparables.
Just too bad he signed with ottawa, was hoping he coule be a replacement for willie if he got moved out this off season
- Fakepartofme

You’re really against just using Willie and risking him walk aren’t you?

I’m not. If the leafs still end up with a JT, Matthews, Marner, Rielly core to hell with it, use him this year and risk losing him.

You’re really against just using Willie and risking him walk aren’t you?

I’m not. If the leafs still end up with a JT, Matthews, Marner, Rielly core to hell with it, use him this year and risk losing him.
- Dozzer

Also known as the Shohei strategy...

Also known as the Shohei strategy...

- dozerD10

A heavenly decision

I love your upbeat, optimistic take on him - while failing to note he dropped 7 spots from your last year's list.
- Atomic Wedgie

A heavenly decision
- Dozzer

I've said this before but it needs repeating.

Arte Moreno makes Ballard look like Jerry Buss.

He simply could not have fck'd up the Trout / Shohei years any more than he has...

You’re really against just using Willie and risking him walk aren’t you?

I’m not. If the leafs still end up with a JT, Matthews, Marner, Rielly core to hell with it, use him this year and risk losing him.
- Dozzer

Im ok with doing that for non core players for sure, like the leafs have done for years.
But weve been spoon fed this core for years and to let willie walk without acquiring a piece(s) to fill another place of need seems foolish.
But, I firmly believe the Tree wont let that happen anyway.
If he doesn't sign an extension he'll be traded by the deadline or after their playoff exit in a sign and trade....similar to tkafack.
But willie wont be walking for free....so im not too worried.

You’re really against just using Willie and risking him walk aren’t you?

I’m not. If the leafs still end up with a JT, Matthews, Marner, Rielly core to hell with it, use him this year and risk losing him.
- Dozzer

In a cap world, you always get cap space back when a guy walks as a UFA. Then you can use that space to sign guys. If the Leafs are a top seed at the deadine and Willy is still not extended, they ain't trading him for picks and prospects going into the playoffs.

I've said this before but it needs repeating.

Arte Moreno makes Ballard look like Jerry Buss.

He simply could not have fck'd up the Trout / Shohei years any more than he has...

- dozerD10

Nah, harold was a piece of poop that tried to ruin the team and screw the players. Arte just seems incompetent

Also known as the Shohei strategy...

- dozerD10

The Shohei strategy is weird to me. So this is year-over-year since the Angels got Ohtani, starting in year 1:

80-82 4th of 5
72-90 4th of 5
26-34 4th of 5
77-85 4th of 5
73-89 3rd of 5
54-49 3rd of 5

As of today, they are 6 back of Texas in their division, and 3 games out of a wildcard position pursuing Tampa, Houston and Toronto - while competing amidst the Yankees, Red Sox and Mariners.

I think they know that Shohei is leaving. He has said he's tired of losing. I can't imagine one season of finally giving a crap is going to change his mind that this team doesn't do enough. I think the Angels are just figuring - "This is it. Our shot. Go for it and see if win it, because next year he's gone and we'll still have nothing and we have to rebuild."

But they feel like a team that is and has been basically Mike Trout and Ohtani and everything else is simply not good enough.

I've said this before but it needs repeating.

Arte Moreno makes Ballard look like Jerry Buss.

He simply could not have fck'd up the Trout / Shohei years any more than he has...

- dozerD10

Nah, Ballard was 100% obvious nothing mattered more than money. Moreno is only about 80% lol

Erik Karlsson feeding AusTon of fun Matthews will win the Art Ross after McDavid blows a tire.
- AdamFrench

I know this is a bit of a joke but Karlsson for nylander probably makes this team better for a year or 2.

Karlsson on the powerplay alone makes it worth it. The leafs haven’t had a #1 pp qb since kaberle, McCabe?

Im ok with doing that for non core players for sure, like the leafs have done for years.
But weve been spoon fed this core for years and to let willie walk without acquiring a piece(s) to fill another place of need seems foolish.
But, I firmly believe the Tree wont let that happen anyway.
If he doesn't sign an extension he'll be traded by the deadline or after their playoff exit in a sign and trade....similar to tkafack.
But willie wont be walking for free....so im not too worried.
- Fakepartofme

I disagree with you on this.

I won’t be shocked if the 5th most important player is used and let walk at all.

Seriously… 5th most important, becoming the 6th of Samsonov has a stellar year as well. Those guys get used and let walk, if he got moved at the deadline for picks and prospects the majority of the fanbase would want Treliving’s head.