Ryan Wilson: Jake Guentzel update Jake Guentzel update

The key question is how do you balance potentially losing Jake for nothing and possibly relying on him to get you into a playoff spot.

I've said before that I am perfectly okay traveling down the road we are on. Middle of the road club that finishes either missing a playoff spot or making the playoffs by a few points. I dont expect them to compete for a Cup nor get a top 3 1st round pick.

For Jake though, I cannot justify losing him for nothing. He is worth a solid 2-3 assets for a team with no assets. Even if you take those young assets/draft picks and send them for NHL quality talent, that's better than losing him for nothing

This is how I am leaning as well. Say you get what the rumored value is for Guentzel on the trade market which is a 1st, a prospect, and a player. I think you have to at least consider listening and trading him for that type of package. Sadly if you listen to trade offers for Guentzel I think Karlsson would also be on that list. Then I think you load up in the off-season with the money saved especially with some potential big names being available this offseason.

Honestly looks pretty poopty on Jake not just being straight with the team. He’s kind of a little female dog though so not too surprised. Great player but his shine has long worn off on me. Plus I think getting rid of him jump starts changing the culture around the team.

Ek just reported that if Pitt falls out of the race he could be moved. Whereas you have pointed out the short-term thinking about that, given all of the other pieces suggest the window to compete isn't just this year, but also the imminent future.

Who to believe?

Ek just reported that if Pitt falls out of the race he could be moved. Whereas you have pointed out the short-term thinking about that, given all of the other pieces suggest the window to compete isn't just this year, but also the imminent future.

Who to believe?
- Cooleus

I mean, who ever believes Ek.. is that a real question?

Kevin Stevens found out that the grass is not always greener when he left for the monay angle If Jake wants to stay offer him a contract that matches the expiration date of the core. Then he is officially part of the core. Then they can all leave at the same time. If he want long term contract say good bye Without Sid he will be OK but not premier Sid Makes Jake better and I think JAKE himself knows that

Jake long term should NOT be considered Pay him a fair price while he is here but long term NOOOOOOOOOOOOO

Trade Jake, Drew can take his place.

Kevin Stevens found out that the grass is not always greener when he left for the monay angle If Jake wants to stay offer him a contract that matches the expiration date of the core. Then he is officially part of the core. Then they can all leave at the same time. If he want long term contract say good bye Without Sid he will be OK but not premier Sid Makes Jake better and I think JAKE himself knows that

Jake long term should NOT be considered Pay him a fair price while he is here but long term NOOOOOOOOOOOOO
- broncohorvath

Assuming he signed max term of 7 more seasons....why would it matter that much if he had 3, maybe 4, more seasons with the Pens after Sid and Geno were gone?

I mean, who ever believes Ek.. is that a real question?
- j.boyd919

He(?) certainly doesn't believe Ek. No one gives Ek as hard of a time in the comments of Ek's stories/rumours as Cooleus hahaha

Assuming he signed max term of 7 more seasons....why would it matter that much if he had 3, maybe 4, more seasons with the Pens after Sid and Geno were gone?
- MattStrat

It will only matter if/when McDavid wants out of Edmonton in a year or two lol.

I think it is pretty telling that Dubas hasn't come out and said "our priority is to re-sign Jake".

Jake has been a great player from day one with the Pens but this is his only real chance to cash out. Sad to say but aside from that, he might also be considering his best chances to win moving forward. Getting paid is most important but if it looks like the Pens are done being legit contenders, I could definitely see him wanting to join a younger team on the come up.

Ideally they sign him for 8/$8M but with the Nylander contract, he might be looking for $10M per. I just can't imagine Dubas doing that, but then again quite a few of his moves have baffled me.

I don't think it matters if we are in the playoff race or not. If you can't get him signed by the deadline you trade him and try to bring him back in the offseason. Edmonton would be desperate to get him (especially 1/2 retained) and I think Vancouver should have legitimate interest. Vancouver has Kuzemenko who would be a really interesting guy to give a shot running with Geno. You would run into the same contract dilemma with him next year but worth a shot. You could do Jake for Kuzemenko and a 1st and still have a shot at pushing toward the playoffs.

I think it is pretty telling that Dubas hasn't come out and said "our priority is to re-sign Jake".

Jake has been a great player from day one with the Pens but this is his only real chance to cash out. Sad to say but aside from that, he might also be considering his best chances to win moving forward. Getting paid is most important but if it looks like the Pens are done being legit contenders, I could definitely see him wanting to join a younger team on the come up.

Ideally they sign him for 8/$8M but with the Nylander contract, he might be looking for $10M per. I just can't imagine Dubas doing that, but then again quite a few of his moves have baffled me.

I don't think it matters if we are in the playoff race or not. If you can't get him signed by the deadline you trade him and try to bring him back in the offseason. Edmonton would be desperate to get him (especially 1/2 retained) and I think Vancouver should have legitimate interest. Vancouver has Kuzemenko who would be a really interesting guy to give a shot running with Geno. You would run into the same contract dilemma with him next year but worth a shot. You could do Jake for Kuzemenko and a 1st and still have a shot at pushing toward the playoffs.
- MacPatty

Nah.

Personally I'd like the pens to sign him to a long term deal (say 7 or 8 years since he is gonna want to get his big pay day which is deserved). The pens could offer a no trade of some sort which would allow guentzel to sort of choose who he can be traded to after the pens core retires and they become a bottom team. He'd still get his chance to win now with the pens and then the pens can trade him with money retained for assets in a few years.

It will only matter if/when McDavid wants out of Edmonton in a year or two lol.
- madmike71

Hahaha 🤞

I think the fourth period said something to the effect that Jake wants to wait and see how competitive the Pens look both now and into the future. He's comfortable waiting to see how the season goes.

IF that's true, he's probably going to leave for a team that's window isn't closing. I can also not blame Dubas for wanting to keep that option open as long as possible as you just don't replace a player like Jake.

As far as can they let him walk for nothing? The time to trade him and get value back was last year. As a rental, they can recoup the first they traded for EK but probably not get much more than that. It won't be enough now to kick off a rebuild. And if you traded for EK and are in the playoff hunt, it's kind of dumb to blow it up before you even have one playoffs.

TLDR, the window to make the playoffs might actually close after this season or be very difficult to keep open. But you committed so much to Malkin, Letang, Rust, and EK that you might as well at least take one last shot, because the return for Jake won't be enough as a rental that you HAVE to get it.

Assuming he signed max term of 7 more seasons....why would it matter that much if he had 3, maybe 4, more seasons with the Pens after Sid and Geno were gone?
- MattStrat

Because he would be dead weight for those season with a big contract You could use the youth in this organization Jake alone is not going to make a difference by then
Let them all finish and start over but you will have some youth which does not exist now in the whole organization Jake without Sid equals disaster

Personally I'd like the pens to sign him to a long term deal (say 7 or 8 years since he is gonna want to get his big pay day which is deserved). The pens could offer a no trade of some sort which would allow guentzel to sort of choose who he can be traded to after the pens core retires and they become a bottom team. He'd still get his chance to win now with the pens and then the pens can trade him with money retained for assets in a few years.
- lemieux_66

Bt

By then he will have no value Too old and fragile for that length of contract
Long term with big money is not a good path going forward

Because he would be dead weight for those season with a big contract You could use the youth in this organization Jake alone is not going to make a difference by then
Let them all finish and start over but you will have some youth which does not exist now in the whole organization Jake without Sid equals disaster
- broncohorvath

I have pondered this myself. If he didn't have Malkin or Crosby and was with a team who really didn't have a good center is he able to improve that line. He is 29 years old and I would say he will probably play well for 5 more seasons. The more I think about it, the more I am ok if he said he wouldn't resign and gets traded at the deadline. If he stays do we may it to the playoffs? Probably. Do we get past the 1st round of the playoffs? Maybe? I fear they will be lethargic once again towards the end of the season so I would say no.

Because he would be dead weight for those season with a big contract You could use the youth in this organization Jake alone is not going to make a difference by then
Let them all finish and start over but you will have some youth which does not exist now in the whole organization Jake without Sid equals disaster
- broncohorvath

Jake is an elite winger. There are more elite centers outside of Sid. Jake will be fine on another team producing similar statistics.

I think the fourth period said something to the effect that Jake wants to wait and see how competitive the Pens look both now and into the future. He's comfortable waiting to see how the season goes.

IF that's true, he's probably going to leave for a team that's window isn't closing. I can also not blame Dubas for wanting to keep that option open as long as possible as you just don't replace a player like Jake.

As far as can they let him walk for nothing? The time to trade him and get value back was last year. As a rental, they can recoup the first they traded for EK but probably not get much more than that. It won't be enough now to kick off a rebuild. And if you traded for EK and are in the playoff hunt, it's kind of dumb to blow it up before you even have one playoffs.

TLDR, the window to make the playoffs might actually close after this season or be very difficult to keep open. But you committed so much to Malkin, Letang, Rust, and EK that you might as well at least take one last shot, because the return for Jake won't be enough as a rental that you HAVE to get it.
- Tojo.

If I’m being honest, seeing this team play… they have definitely had inconsistencies this season but I don’t see anything from them that says they definitively couldn’t win a seven game series or two. We’ve seen them beat top tier teams, we’ve seen them come from behind to lose in OT to top tier teams, and we’ve seen them lose games to middling teams but all in all they’ve been competitive in mostly every game except that Toronto ass kicking they received.

I have pondered this myself. If he didn't have Malkin or Crosby and was with a team who really didn't have a good center is he able to improve that line. He is 29 years old and I would say he will probably play well for 5 more seasons. The more I think about it, the more I am ok if he said he wouldn't resign and gets traded at the deadline. If he stays do we may it to the playoffs? Probably. Do we get past the 1st round of the playoffs? Maybe? I fear they will be lethargic once again towards the end of the season so I would say no.
- 123Kid

What do you mean they will once gain look lethargic towards the end of the season? They looked anything but lethargic in that 7 game series vs the Rags the season before last mostly dominating them, or the season before it in the 6 game series vs the Isles in which they mostly outplayed the Isles but Jarry was terrible and Sorokin played like a demi-god in each of the Isles wins.

I watched almost all of the games last season including all the ones in the final weeks when they missed the playoffs by a point. They didnt look tired or lethargic in that 2nd last game game vs the BHawks that basically eliminated them. . They tried hard. They mostly controlled the play that game with SCF% of 65.22, HDSC% of 57.89 and xGF% of 53.31....they just couldnt finish. Few mental lapses defensively and the puck was in their net, playoff streak done....

The Pens problems last year were the roster wasn't constructed as good but remember that when January 1st 2023 hit the Pens were 4th overall in the league. Jarry went down in the Winter Classic on January 2nd, after being the best goalie in the league the previous two months, and for a lot of the games after that the Pens were missing 3 and 4 starting defensemen a lot of nights.

I just think that the "they're old so they must be tired" narrative is tossed around too easily. They are professional hockey players, they have the cardio of horses. Now if you want to say they've slowed down a bit, sure, I can have that chat, but these guys are in tip top shape even in their 30's.

Jake is an elite winger. There are more elite centers outside of Sid. Jake will be fine on another team producing similar statistics.
- j.boyd919

Agreed.

What do you mean they will once gain look lethargic towards the end of the season? They looked anything but lethargic in that 7 game series vs the Rags the season before last mostly dominating them, or the season before it in the 6 game series vs the Isles in which they mostly outplayed the Isles but Jarry was terrible and Sorokin played like a demi-god in each of the Isles wins.

I watched almost all of the games last season including all the ones in the final weeks when they missed the playoffs by a point. They didnt look slow or lethargic in that 2nd last game game vs the BHawks that basically eliminated them. . They tried hard. They mostly controlled the play that game with SCF% of 65.22, HDSC% of 57.89 and xGF% of 53.31....they just couldnt finish. Few mental lapses defensively and the puck was in their net, playoff streak done....

The Pens problems last year were the roster wasn't constructed as good but remember that when January 1st 2023 hit the Pens were 4th overall in the league. Jarry went down in the Winter Classic on January 2nd, after being the best goalie in the league the previous two months, and for a lot of the games after that the Pens were missing 3 and 4 starting defensemen a lot of nights.

I just think that the "they're old so they must be tired" narrative is tossed around too easily. They are professional hockey players, they have the cardio of horses. Now if you want to say they've slowed down a bit, sure, I can have that chat, but these guys are in tip top shape even in their 30's.
- MattStrat

The Guentzel is a product of Sid is a tiring, but equally terrible argument too.

If I’m being honest, seeing this team play… they have definitely had inconsistencies this season but I don’t see anything from them that says they definitively couldn’t win a seven game series or two. We’ve seen them beat top tier teams, we’ve seen them come from behind to lose in OT to top tier teams, and we’ve seen them lose games to middling teams but all in all they’ve been competitive in mostly every game except that Toronto ass kicking they received.
- j.boyd919

Agree. This looks like a team that can play a little spoiler, which is really the best we could expect. Now is not the time to pull the plug to get back the pick we traded for EK.