Jeremy Laura: Wings sign Axel Sandin-Pellikka to ELC, 3/4 of league working on next seaso

ASP could turn into a Letang type player. Just need to be patient. How the roster plays out through the offseason will likely determine if he’s in GR or loaned back to Sweden.

I also wouldn’t pencil in Edvinsson yet either because Yzerman has shown a willingness to logjam the roster and screw waiver exempt players out of a roster spot. I’m sure he learned that from tire kicking Kenny.

Seider and Raymond are going to get big raises. Kane is almost certainly gone (and even if he does come back, you're not going to get that level of production for a pro-rated $2.75m).

Last year Detroit's No. 1 defenseman, No. 1 goalie, and top scorer made less than $3 million combined. And it still wasn't enough to get them into the playoffs, even though Detroit spent to within $3 million of the cap (albeit with an extra $5 million in dead cap via buyouts/buried/retained salary contracts).

Now, consider that this upcoming year Seider and Raymond alone are going to cost a combined $14-$18 million more than what they cost last year.

It's really hard to put together a contending team without at least a few guys contributing solid production on an ELC-sized budget. Especially if you don't have any legit superstars (who also tend to be underpaid relative to their on-ice impact).

For the first time in a long time the cap ceiling is going to be super relevant for Detroit and if they want to take another step forward they are quite frankly going to have to find a way to drastically cut costs to the bottom half of the roster. Hard to see how they do it withing (1) clearing out at least a couple of veterans and (2) promoting some of their prospects sooner rather than later.

Seider and Raymond are going to get big raises. Kane is almost certainly gone (and even if he does come back, you're not going to get that level of production for a pro-rated $2.75m).

Last year Detroit's No. 1 defenseman, No. 1 goalie, and top scorer made less than $3 million combined. And it still wasn't enough to get them into the playoffs, even though Detroit spent to within $3 million of the cap (albeit with an extra $5 million in dead cap via buyouts/buried/retained salary contracts).

Now, consider that this upcoming year Seider and Raymond alone are going to cost a combined $14-$18 million more than what they cost last year.

It's really hard to put together a contending team without at least a few guys contributing solid production on an ELC-sized budget. Especially if you don't have any legit superstars (who also tend to be underpaid relative to their on-ice impact).

For the first time in a long time the cap ceiling is going to be super relevant for Detroit and if they want to take another step forward they are quite frankly going to have to find a way to drastically cut costs to the bottom half of the roster. Hard to see how they do it withing (1) clearing out at least a couple of veterans and (2) promoting some of their prospects sooner rather than later.
- Sven22

Kane is gone, absolutely. A friend of mine found a Perron interview in French where it sounds like he may be as well. Sprong and Christensen testing the market.

As for the scoring, the goals against was murder. They went up in scoring but very near an even rating. Husso could well be on the shelf (no problem with that). All of last summer was focused on adding goals. We heard it in every press conference. I will be shocked if there’s not some effort made to knock .5 gpg off the against sheet. Lyon still signed for an unreal low amount. I would also factor in decline. Tampa, Detroit swept the series. At some point the Bruins will likely fall off. the Panthers will have tough decisions but will still be at the top (opinion). Ottawa has kicked around some crazy scenarios with a fairly unhappy group and owner.

Until we know the numbers we just don’t know. That “4 year” buzz is floating around. It is really going to depend on the sell to Raymond and Seider and if the priority is there to build a team or to cash in. I can’t blame anyone for getting every cent they can in pro sports. I’m still hearing more chatter on the 4 year timeline. I know there’s some unfriendly financial news coming but I’m kicking that can far down the road. Lottery is coming, extensions are coming, and it will be interesting to see if any more ELCs are signed.

ASP could turn into a Letang type player. Just need to be patient. How the roster plays out through the offseason will likely determine if he’s in GR or loaned back to Sweden.

I also wouldn’t pencil in Edvinsson yet either because Yzerman has shown a willingness to logjam the roster and screw waiver exempt players out of a roster spot. I’m sure he learned that from tire kicking Kenny.
- Feds91Stammer

ASP has been a bit of a shock for me. I think the Swedes are developing new skating forms/angles. As for Eddie, hearing a lot of high praise especially as he uses his size. Also skates surprisingly well. Unless something goes off the rails (injury/personal) I think they want him up. I’ve only briefly talked to someone in GR and that seems to be the assumption. Feels like everyone else is a ? That waiver thing, man that makes me think of Jurco. Was pissed at how he was handled. Felt shameful

Seider and Raymond are going to get big raises. Kane is almost certainly gone (and even if he does come back, you're not going to get that level of production for a pro-rated $2.75m).

Last year Detroit's No. 1 defenseman, No. 1 goalie, and top scorer made less than $3 million combined. And it still wasn't enough to get them into the playoffs, even though Detroit spent to within $3 million of the cap (albeit with an extra $5 million in dead cap via buyouts/buried/retained salary contracts).

Now, consider that this upcoming year Seider and Raymond alone are going to cost a combined $14-$18 million more than what they cost last year.

It's really hard to put together a contending team without at least a few guys contributing solid production on an ELC-sized budget. Especially if you don't have any legit superstars (who also tend to be underpaid relative to their on-ice impact).

For the first time in a long time the cap ceiling is going to be super relevant for Detroit and if they want to take another step forward they are quite frankly going to have to find a way to drastically cut costs to the bottom half of the roster. Hard to see how they do it withing (1) clearing out at least a couple of veterans and (2) promoting some of their prospects sooner rather than later.
- Sven22

I would add that the other thing that fell into place was that a pitiful total of 91 points was enough to make the playoffs. If you look back at previous years you'll see that totals of 95, 96, 97 points is more typical. Two years ago the 8th place team had 100 points. So take the massive contributions from ELCs, take Kane's output on a cheap deal, take Lyon's cheap deal, take the miraculous 3 games to finish the year, and that gets you 91 points. Now somehow do all that and get closer to 100 points. Taking a step back is a real probability, especially with Yzerman bloating the cap with a bunch of bad contracts.

I would add that the other thing that fell into place was that a pitiful total of 91 points was enough to make the playoffs. If you look back at previous years you'll see that totals of 95, 96, 97 points is more typical. Two years ago the 8th place team had 100 points. So take the massive contributions from ELCs, take Kane's output on a cheap deal, take Lyon's cheap deal, take the miraculous 3 games to finish the year, and that gets you 91 points. Now somehow do all that and get closer to 100 points. Taking a step back is a real probability, especially with Yzerman bloating the cap with a bunch of bad contracts.
- HockeyBuzzed

I also look at the insane point totals the Bruins put up early. A step back is always a possibility and we have talked at length about the bad deals. There are some really bad signings. At the same time, is Tampa going to move forward or potentially take a step back? The Bruins? Ottawa? Montreal? Last fall I said the Wings wouldn’t be in the playoffs. I had no idea how close. The insane run of the Caps and some seriously bad stretches for several teams play a part as well. When do the Pens “blow it up”? There were 4 teams fighting for those 2 bubble spots. That’s why the moves of several teams against the cap are going to be so fascinating. This summer could see some serious face lifts. Until we see who shows up to camp and what the organization can or can’t pull off it’s going to be impossible to tell.

I would add that the other thing that fell into place was that a pitiful total of 91 points was enough to make the playoffs. If you look back at previous years you'll see that totals of 95, 96, 97 points is more typical. Two years ago the 8th place team had 100 points. So take the massive contributions from ELCs, take Kane's output on a cheap deal, take Lyon's cheap deal, take the miraculous 3 games to finish the year, and that gets you 91 points. Now somehow do all that and get closer to 100 points. Taking a step back is a real probability, especially with Yzerman bloating the cap with a bunch of bad contracts.
- HockeyBuzzed

Yeah, I have a hard time seeing how this team makes any significant improvements next year.

No more steep discounts for Seider/Raymond/Kane. Limited free agent market and cap space. Limited market for bad contracts to unload. Few highly desirable assets to offer in trade. The prospects that are potentially NHL-ready are unlikely to be impact players this year.

Honestly this very well could be a "hoping to just tread water" year. Be a bubble team again. Then try to take the next big step in another year, when some of those bad contracts are (hopefully) easier to unload and the young players in the system are more ready to step into those roles.

I'm cautiously optimistic that Seider/Edvinsson/ASP will be a nice little D corps in a few years. I'm more concerned that Kasper and Danielson will both top out as utility two way middle six centers. Nothing wrong with having those kinds of players around for a fair price, but hopefully by the time they get there Copp and/or Compher will either already be gone or easier to move.

Yeah, I have a hard time seeing how this team makes any significant improvements next year.

No more steep discounts for Seider/Raymond/Kane. Limited free agent market and cap space. Limited market for bad contracts to unload. Few highly desirable assets to offer in trade. The prospects that are potentially NHL-ready are unlikely to be impact players this year.

Honestly this very well could be a "hoping to just tread water" year. Be a bubble team again. Then try to take the next big step in another year, when some of those bad contracts are (hopefully) easier to unload and the young players in the system are more ready to step into those roles.

I'm cautiously optimistic that Seider/Edvinsson/ASP will be a nice little D corps in a few years. I'm more concerned that Kasper and Danielson will both top out as utility two way middle six centers. Nothing wrong with having those kinds of players around for a fair price, but hopefully by the time they get there Copp and/or Compher will either already be gone or easier to move.
- Sven22

If you fast forward say 3 years...Seider, Edvinsson, ASP could be a strong d-corps. Agree there. But if Danielson/Kasper top out at middle 6 centers...then we have 30-year old Larkin with a ton of mileage while Danielson/Kasper push out Copp/Compher who will be 32 by then. That's a disaster. That's not a playoff team and we've just wasted Larkin's prime years, not to mention a decent chunk of Seider's as well. This is my fear actually. Danielson and Kasper are nothing more than a Michael Backlund and Lars Eller. Decent NHL'ers but nothing to really support Larkin. But hey, if one of those guys develops into a Barkov or Kopitar then you have a true contender. A hockey trade might be the remedy.

If you fast forward say 3 years...Seider, Edvinsson, ASP could be a strong d-corps. Agree there. But if Danielson/Kasper top out at middle 6 centers...then we have 30-year old Larkin with a ton of mileage while Danielson/Kasper push out Copp/Compher who will be 32 by then. That's a disaster. That's not a playoff team and we've just wasted Larkin's prime years, not to mention a decent chunk of Seider's as well. This is my fear actually. Danielson and Kasper are nothing more than a Michael Backlund and Lars Eller. Decent NHL'ers but nothing to really support Larkin. But hey, if one of those guys develops into a Barkov or Kopitar then you have a true contender. A hockey trade might be the remedy.
- Cooleus

I don’t think there’s anything wrong with that big move. Florida has brought in a lot of talent, Vegas obviously didn’t have a home grown cup. I think it’s fair to think that bringing Shanny in had a big impact on Detroit. Yzerman whittled down to one leg and we have no idea what the cap landscape will bring. I’m (cautiously) optimistic about next year’s team in terms of internal growth but there’s nothing to commit to yet (opinion). We don’t know if anyone can be moved in the coming months and we are surrounded by teams in cap trouble that far outweighs Detroit’s issues. Tampa has decisions to make. Toronto has decisions to make. Florida has a UFA who had a career year and may be the “belle of the ball”. Part of this is exciting. We don’t know. But we’re seeing glimpses, as I think you’ve put as well as anyone, of potential.

I walked back the story that the one person I trust knew for sure about Yzerman potentially going to Ottawa after the 1995 loss. The “sensationalist” version had him actually on the plane when Mr. I called it off. My hope is that something will shift some bad deals out and a possible valuable player in. But, since 2019 we’ve kind of seen it all. Spittin’ chiclets had some rough takes today about not building a core. Right now I don’t think any of the well thought out concerns or potential optimism can be ruled out. The moves that are made will determine quite a bit. I hope that there is some fun to be had along the way. Those nights this year when LCA was jumping were awesome. Something for fans to cheer for. It would be nice to see more of that.

Next year Florida, Toronto, and Boston are likely top 3. I mean the Leafs can simply bring back the same top 4 and tinker with the supporting cast. They have Bertuzzi, Domi, Brodie, Klingberg, Samsonov coming off the books. So $20M+ to work with. Boston doesnt have a cap problem. Florida loses Tarasenko and Okposo to give that money to Reinhart. Lets say Tampa regresses. But then maybe a healthy New Jersey flirts with 100 points. Maybe a young team like Buffalo or Philly takes a step forward. Point is...we're probably getting worse by losing Kane when we need to get better.

To me it all depends on what Yzerman does this off-season. If he doesn't bring in a solid top 4 RHD and we are stuck with Petry or Holl again, this team isn't going to be better. If he does, then that alone would be a very good improvement over this years version even with losing Kane.

I think some of you are making way too much about losing Kane. He was good offensively but he was garbage defensively. For all his points at ES, he was still a -5. PP might suffer a bit and so will shootouts but i don't think it's that big of a deal if they improve the defense. Wings were still one of the top scoring teams before they signed Kane with a top PP. They just need to have a similar scoring depth and if they can at least be decent defensively, it could make them better.

If they add that top 4 RHD then if Seider got injured, they could maybe survive it but they won't as is. Losing Larkin is what cost them the playoffs since they don't have the offensive depth at center to replace him. Not sure that Yzerman is going to sign another center unless he can get rid of Copp. Kasper or Danielson might be options short term if Larkin gets injured as call ups (unless they make the team).

ASP has been a bit of a shock for me. I think the Swedes are developing new skating forms/angles. As for Eddie, hearing a lot of high praise especially as he uses his size. Also skates surprisingly well. Unless something goes off the rails (injury/personal) I think they want him up. I’ve only briefly talked to someone in GR and that seems to be the assumption. Feels like everyone else is a ? That waiver thing, man that makes me think of Jurco. Was pissed at how he was handled. Felt shameful
- Jeremy Laura

I thought Jurco was going to be a beast. But you get the Babcock treatment and end up stuck with Miller and Glendening you’re screwed. Injuries didn’t help him either.

I thought Jurco was going to be a beast. But you get the Babcock treatment and end up stuck with Miller and Glendening you’re screwed. Injuries didn’t help him either.
- Feds91Stammer

Jurco left Detroit 7 years ago. Had multiple chances with several NHL teams. Now is a depth player in the KHL. Babcock didn't help at the time, but he had numerous other chances. He's just another skilled winger that couldn't translate to NHL success. See Pulkinnen. See Zadina. Probably Berggren too. Also the easiest position to fill via ttade/ free agency. See Kane. See Perron. See DeBrincat. It's the reason I would only draft centers and d-men.

Jurco left Detroit 7 years ago. Had multiple chances with several NHL teams. Now is a depth player in the KHL. Babcock didn't help at the time, but he had numerous other chances. He's just another skilled winger that couldn't translate to NHL success. See Pulkinnen. See Zadina. Probably Berggren too. Also the easiest position to fill via ttade/ free agency. See Kane. See Perron. See DeBrincat. It's the reason I would only draft centers and d-men.
- HockeyBuzzed

Cooleus that’s a long winded way of saying you don’t understand aging/development curves.

Jurco left Detroit 7 years ago. Had multiple chances with several NHL teams. Now is a depth player in the KHL. Babcock didn't help at the time, but he had numerous other chances. He's just another skilled winger that couldn't translate to NHL success. See Pulkinnen. See Zadina. Probably Berggren too. Also the easiest position to fill via ttade/ free agency. See Kane. See Perron. See DeBrincat. It's the reason I would only draft centers and d-men.
- HockeyBuzzed

What exactly is it that makes you so pessimistic on Berggren ?? He's developed as well as anyone could have hoped. It's not like he was expected to be elite. He was drafted 33rd overall in his draft. He's 23. I don't see any red flags indicating he won't be a legit serviceable NHL player at this point. He's been clutch in the playoffs so far and his trade value keeps climbing almost every game the Griffins play. I think it's too early to write him off... let's see what happens when he's spent more time in the NHL.

Cooleus that’s a long winded way of saying you don’t understand aging/development curves.
- Feds91Stammer

OK. Sure. I don't know anything about the ageing/development curve? Here is something I know. Look at any legit contender today. Their roster is full of guys drafted between 2010-2020. How did we do? It's pretty wild. Even when we did find a player they have been traded away with little to show for it. Starting from 2010...

2010 - Sheahan, Jarnkrok, Mrazek - gone
2011 - Jurco, Oullete, - gone
2012 - Athanasiou - gone
2013 - Mantha, Bertuzzi, Janmark - gone
2014 - Larkin
2015 - Svech - gone
2016 - Cholowski, Smith, Hronek - gone
2017 - Rasmussen - yeah. Lindstrom - gone
2018 - Zadina - gone. Veleno Berggren - yeah
2019 - Seider. Not much else.
2020 - Raymond. Not looking good on the other 11 picks.

So in 10 years we have Larkin, Rasmussen, Veleno, Seider, and Raymond. All first round picks. Everything else was a bust or have moved on with nothing to show for it.

I just watched Boston last night - Pastrnak, DeBrusk, McAvoy, Carlo, Swayman, Frederic, Lohrei.

Carolina plays tonight featuring Anderson, Slavin, Pesce, Aho, Necas, Svechnikov, Jarvis.

Our drafting sucks. Yzerman hasn't really fixed it based on missing every single pick outside of round 1. That should be the sole focus. Not can we sign another 2nd pair free agent d-man.