Great points! If we are going full REBUILD then out of those teams listed above, Toronto would be my choice for a variety of reasons: Babcock loves Keith (inflate the deal) good talent especially the young ones. So back to the original question: How about Keith for Kadri and and young D prospect (hopefully big and mean that can skate)?
- D2D

Keith to Toronto is the very best fit I know of. They will be in cap hell in 2 yrs, might have to trade Nylander, and defense is their most pressing need. They need to win this yr! Also think Keith would waive to go there.

I guess they can work out the details. Always been a fan of 27 yr old Kadri. Plays center, has some grit, can score and has shown he can be a 2C in this league. Love Kapanen's speed at 21 yrs old as well.

Grew up in Portland, OR. Sat at my dad's knee watching and learning about every sport EXCEPT for hockey (unless you count the Miracle on Ice game). We had the Winterhawks, but they were a blip on my radar. Was a gymnast, dancer, softball, basketball, and soccer player while growing up. Went to NBA games off and on, then got swept up in Blazers fervor in the Drexler/Kersey/Porter years when they were challenging for the title. Fell out of obsession (but not love) after moving to Chicago and after watching most of our starting five spend time in jail one summer and seeing the bingo-bango-bongo team play replaced with selfish showboating.

After 12 years in Chicago, I went to a Hawks game in March 2013 on a lark. It was the Wild game where we were celebrating Hossa's (coincidentally, a former Winterhawk) 1000th game and that amazing 2013 winning streak. The crowd in the 300-level was electric, but that was nothing compared to the action on the ice. I fell in love with the speed, skill, and the intensity of the game. I was fascinated with the rules about when you could and couldn't leave your seat and the blowback that engendered.

After that, I started reading and watching everything I could about the Hawks. I almost fell out of my office window leaning out to watch them parade by for the 2013 Cup parade. I have bought the sweaters and gone to as many games and player-sponsored charity events as I could reasonably afford since. And, yes, McD's marketing of them as personalities worked on me. I still cry if I watch Sharpy's post-trade video and shedding the core (or watching them retire) hurts, even while I constantly question what the hell is going on with Keith and Toews. I've watched almost every game the past couple of seasons and it was hard to see the deterioration, but even more painful to see a lack of effort.

Finding this community in the summer of 2015 when I was looking for a place full of hockey fans that was not advocating a lynch mob for the Hawks and Kane (I was in the "wait and see what the evidence shows" camp) was a godsend. I'll be forever grateful for the chance to learn from the much more experienced folks here. Justin is a fantastic read and an even better conversation facilitator, so I'll stick around through the team's ups and downs.

So thanks to you all!


- pdx2ord

Nice post!! Loved those Blazer teams as well, especially Clyde The Glide. Kike Vandewhege was something too. IIRC Duckworth grew up here in Harvey.

Tell that to Kyle Dubas, Oakland A's (Moneyball), etc. Simply said, while it is not the end all be all, it certainly should factor somewhat in an organizational decision especially doling big contracts via re-up, UFA's and RFA's!
- D2D

Thought of Dubas right away. Did he play hockey or is just a pointy headed braniac?

In this day and age if you don't use fancy stats you will be a bottom feeder. But if you think it's the fountain of youth and an answer to all questions you too will be a bottom feeder.

Gotta find a balance. Your eye can deceive but the fancies can't measure things like what a player brings to chemistry/harmony/culture/deterence/knowledge/experience. There is a middle ground.

Thought of Dubas right away. Did he play hockey or is just a pointy headed braniac?

In this day and age if you don't use fancy stats you will be a bottom feeder. But if you think it's the fountain of youth and an answer to all questions you too will be a bottom feeder.

Gotta find a balance. Your eye can deceive but the fancies can't measure things like what a player brings to chemistry/harmony/culture/deterence/knowledge/experience. There is a middle ground.
- Mr Ricochet

I will correct the "Kyle Dubas is only into advanced stats" narrative right now.

I know people who went to University with him and who have worked directly with him and he's so much more.

He gets typecast as this fancy stat wiz and he does has have a strong background/focus in the area but has a really got a strong overall business acumen and feel for the game. He watches a TON of hockey and uses advanced stats as a compliment vs. a crutch/go-to.

Just wanted to add my $0.02 on him as I know second-hand what he's all about.

I will correct the "Kyle Dubas is only into advanced stats" narrative right now.

I know people who went to University with him and who have worked directly with him and he's so much more.

He gets typecast as this fancy stat wiz and he does has have a strong background/focus in the area but has a really got a strong overall business acumen and feel for the game. He watches a TON of hockey and uses advanced stats as a compliment vs. a crutch/go-to.

Just wanted to add my $0.02 on him as I know second-hand what he's all about.
- Justin Lowe

What is his background? Business, scouting, video guy, coaching? Only know the fancy stats background.

Enzo is a big boy so I'll let him defend himself. And I respect all efforts involved in the game, agree or disagree. And I have to admit I don't understand a lot of your advanced stats. But I'll give you a stat that is a slam dunk. 100% of the people who say size doesn't matter in a competitive high level hockey game are people who never participated in a full contact high level game, especially if fighting is allowed, and sometimes even if it's not.

Staged fights are ridiculous and a clown show. But digging the puck out of a corner or battling for position in front of a net with the possibility of getting your ass handed to you if the opposing player gets pissed takes guts. Believe me, size matters.

There's not as much fighting as there used to be in the NHL and that's a good thing. But the game is (or should be) emotional, tough, difficult. And sometimes poop is gonna happen. If there is a badass on the ice his team mates play bigger and the other team plays more careful. Once in a while there comes along a small guy who doesn't care about size. Like Shaw, but they tend to not last real long. Why? Size. It just (frank)ing matters over the course of a season.

I wish there was a way to measure heart and passion with your advanced stats. College womens teams played with more passion last year than the Hawks did. I'm not trying to be condescending, I have coached girls teams and they give an effort that's amazing and even saw one of the girls go on to play in the Olympics. Huge thrill for this guy.

You and Enzo both make sense most of the time. At least until you two start the sniping. Go pound an old fashioned while he has a smoke and everyone be well.
- 6628

Well first, let me offer that if I ever post something you don't understand, feel free to ask for clarification. When I talk stats, I try hard to combine them with my own observations and/or context for reasonable assertions but that doesn't mean I'm doing it in an accessible way for most people. Stats people often get caught up in their own communities where everyone knows all the terms and phrases and methodologies that they / we forget they're not always spoken about in a "normal" way. I have no problem admitting I fall into that category more often that I'd like lol. Doesn't help I'm pretty blunt/direct so it can come off methodical instead of intelligible, if that makes sense.

But I'll add to your slam dunk stat with one of my own: 0% of the people here said size didn't matter in a competitive high level hockey game. Can you name a single person who legitimately said this? I can't think of a one. What I do remember is people saying that they look at skill before size, don't want a bad player on his team just because of his size, smaller guys shouldn't be judged purely on their size (they could be Shaw/Marchand types), that smaller skilled team have been successful, and things like that. None of which is "size doesn't matter at all in a contact sport" - just that being hyper focused on the size of a player in their evaluation is as silly as being hyper focused on almost anything else.

Sometimes we when get into heated debates, we start to see the other side as an extreme but that's not usually the case. Like I have never said I think size doesn't matter and have advocated many times about balance in a lineup (though I also think you can be hard to play against in ways outside of size); and I don't think Enzo or many others only care about size (obvs if someone's fav player is Kane), just that they've been harping on it for a while in an obsessed fashion. It's like any dead-horsing beating topic that comes up here and I was hoping to prod people into varying their analysis to further discussion. That's all.

Anyway, I'll have you know that I just had a lot of frosé at an open bar event for my work so I'm pretty well already lol

Born and raised in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada. Always been a hockey fan for as long as I can remember. I recall those Saturday nights as a young boy watching Hockey Night in Canada and hoping my dad would let me stay till the very end so I could see the credits with all the logos and that catchy tune. For whatever reasons I never played ice hockey (yeah I know Canadian gut who does not play hockey) I blame that on my mom who was afraid of me getting hurt. Ball hockey I enjoyed a lot later on and made up for what I missed in my youth.

Growing up in Canada you were either a Habs fan or a TO fan. There were a few Boston fans but not very many. Being French everyone I knew was a Habs fan but I always thought the fans were a bit annoying to some degree and I had to be different so for sure another team would have to be my favorite.

I was always fascinated by Tony Esposito, man I thought did he ever look cool in that mask and Jersey that was so unique. So initially that’s what drew me to the Hawks. Since then, now 55, I have always cheered for the Hawks regardless. The games were never broadcasted in Canada unless they were playing MTL or TO and that rarely happened. That being said I remember catching a faint signal in my basement and able to hear the games called on WGN radio. I did that so many times it was hard to do my studies which is what I was supposed to do!

I have fond memories of watching Denis Savard and my favorite Steve Larmer play that high powered offence. That one series against Edmonton and Gretzky that one year was crazy even though they lost. Ever since the hockey TV packages came out I watch nearly every game and I never get bored. Those three cups were awesome and will never forget the rush …. Amazing!

I finally got to go to see a game at the United Center a few years back and it was a dream come through. Wearing my Roenick Jersey and walking around was so much fun. The atmosphere was incredible. I can’t wait to go back one day…..bucket list minus one.

I have fun following the blog and the business side of the sport. I find the banter interesting and always entertaining and will continue following your blog Justin.

I will also try to avoid writing any more “get rid of Toews” write ups….but no promises 

Red skeleton or uncle miltie would be an old person’s reference. Cheers was great in it’s day; some intelligent writing given the subject matter. I see cheers or fraiser as a middle age reference.
- Spec41971

I'll accept middle aged though tbf I'm not sure I was alive during most of the run of Cheers. I think it ran on Nick at Night or TV Land when I was a kid.

Thought of Dubas right away. Did he play hockey or is just a pointy headed braniac?

In this day and age if you don't use fancy stats you will be a bottom feeder. But if you think it's the fountain of youth and an answer to all questions you too will be a bottom feeder.

Gotta find a balance. Your eye can deceive but the fancies can't measure things like what a player brings to chemistry/harmony/culture/deterence/knowledge/experience. There is a middle ground.
- Mr Ricochet

Sure Dubas is the stats guy, but does anybody here think for a second that Uncle Shanny is not heavily involved in roster moves??

I’d be very surprised if Dubas has the autonomy of, say, George McPhee. So, Toronto is doing it right with the HOFer Shanaban, I mean Shanahan , and the stats guru Dubas.

Keith to Toronto is the very best fit I know of. They will be in cap hell in 2 yrs, might have to trade Nylander, and defense is their most pressing need. They need to win this yr! Also think Keith would waive to go there.

I guess they can work out the details. Always been a fan of 27 yr old Kadri. Plays center, has some grit, can score and has shown he can be a 2C in this league. Love Kapanen's speed at 21 yrs old as well.
- Mr Ricochet

Except they really need a top pairing right defenceman. If Keith is traded I think some of you will be underwhelmed by the return. Who is gonna give a top prospect and a first for a 35 year old dman whose game fell off a cliff last year? Unless he has a rebound year I just don't see that big of a return. Also I doubt he gets traded anyway.

I will correct the "Kyle Dubas is only into advanced stats" narrative right now.

I know people who went to University with him and who have worked directly with him and he's so much more.

He gets typecast as this fancy stat wiz and he does has have a strong background/focus in the area but has a really got a strong overall business acumen and feel for the game. He watches a TON of hockey and uses advanced stats as a compliment vs. a crutch/go-to.

Just wanted to add my $0.02 on him as I know second-hand what he's all about.
- Justin Lowe

Here is question to you Justin if the wheels come next year for the hawks and clearly not going to make the playoffs do the hawks start trading players like Keith towes crawford if healthy. IMO they already should have started that.

Well first, let me offer that if I ever post something you don't understand, feel free to ask for clarification. When I talk stats, I try hard to combine them with my own observations and/or context for reasonable assertions but that doesn't mean I'm doing it in an accessible way for most people. Stats people often get caught up in their own communities where everyone knows all the terms and phrases and methodologies that they / we forget they're not always spoken about in a "normal" way. I have no problem admitting I fall into that category more often that I'd like lol. Doesn't help I'm pretty blunt/direct so it can come off methodical instead of intelligible, if that makes sense.

But I'll add to your slam dunk stat with one of my own: 0% of the people here said size didn't matter in a competitive high level hockey game. Can you name a single person who legitimately said this? I can't think of a one. What I do remember is people saying that they look at skill before size, don't want a bad player on his team just because of his size, smaller guys shouldn't be judged purely on their size (they could be Shaw/Marchand types), that smaller skilled team have been successful, and things like that. None of which is "size doesn't matter at all in a contact sport" - just that being hyper focused on the size of a player in their evaluation is as silly as being hyper focused on almost anything else.

Sometimes we when get into heated debates, we start to see the other side as an extreme but that's not usually the case. Like I have never said I think size doesn't matter and have advocated many times about balance in a lineup (though I also think you can be hard to play against in ways outside of size); and I don't think Enzo or many others only care about size (obvs if someone's fav player is Kane), just that they've been harping on it for a while in an obsessed fashion. It's like any dead-horsing beating topic that comes up here and I was hoping to prod people into varying their analysis to further discussion. That's all.

Anyway, I'll have you know that I just had a lot of frosé at an open bar event for my work so I'm pretty well already lol
- L_B_R

-- No question skill is first. Back in the day we had a saying "first can he, then will he." All the talent in the world doesn't matter if a player can be intimated. Size tends to have a little something to do with this. If I was a scout I would look for a player who had a fear of failure as motivation. That's the kind of player I'd want.
-- I recall you mentioning balance more than once and that's important for sure
-- If a stable got bombed there's still more dead horses here, have to give you that.

So all good, you make sense even when you're not throwing stats around. Enjoy your function this evening.

What is his background? Business, scouting, video guy, coaching? Only know the fancy stats background.
- Mr Ricochet

Took Business and Sports Management in school at Brock University in St. Catherines (near Niagara).

Then worked his way up to become the Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds (OHL) GM at a super young age. He always had a great eye for talent and took a strong interest to advanced stats.

Then moved to the Leafs a few years ago.

Sure Dubas is the stats guy, but does anybody here think for a second that Uncle Shanny is not heavily involved in roster moves??

I’d be very surprised if Dubas has the autonomy of, say, George McPhee. So, Toronto is doing it right with the HOFer Shanaban, I mean Shanahan , and the stats guru Dubas.
- EnzoD

Shanahan is heavily involved, yes.

The Leafs are no different than the Hawks in terms of the amount of people involved in day-to-day decisions... MLSE is quite an operation. A lot of cooks in both kitchens.

The big difference I see know is that the Leafs have surrounded themselves with seriously strong hockey people while the Hawks have executives like John McDonough and Jay Blunk that did not.

Obviously for the Hawks it worked, it's just interesting to see the differences between NHL clubs and how they handle the business side of their teams.

Do you think that they sent the weakest boys first?I understood when they felt that it was a daunting task so send out the strong in order to build moral but it sure looks like these cave divers have game.Go asst coach#buddhistmonk.

Here is question to you Justin if the wheels come next year for the hawks and clearly not going to make the playoffs do the hawks start trading players like Keith towes crawford if healthy. IMO they already should have started that.
- Scott1977

Hey Scott - even if the wheels come off next year, I think the Hawks are in a tough spot with a lot of their contracts.

It all depends on their play obviously, but I don't think you find a home for Toews or Seabrook.

Keith and Crawford (if healthy) could be moved and maybe they should. That would really signal the official rebuild and the Hawks would have to see some serious production from the baby core + excitement with those in the system (like Boqvist, Jokiharju, etc) that leads them to believe they are only a few years off from rebounding.

The Hawks exec team are ticked off and want to win. Guys like Duncan Keith and Corey Crawford give them a chance and the fans hope. I guess it depends how realistic they can be the roadmap.

My first exposure to NHL hockey was in the early 80s when we first got cable and Dan Kelly and Gary Green called the games on the USA network. I got to go to my first Hawks game shortly thereafter and I was hooked for life. The old barn on Madison. There was nothing like it.

Hey Scott - even if the wheels come off next year, I think the Hawks are in a tough spot with a lot of their contracts.

It all depends on their play obviously, but I don't think you find a home for Toews or Seabrook.

Keith and Crawford (if healthy) could be moved and maybe they should. That would really signal the official rebuild and the Hawks would have to see some serious production from the baby core + excitement with those in the system (like Boqvist, Jokiharju, etc) that leads them to believe they are only a few years off from rebounding.

The Hawks exec team are ticked off and want to win. Guys like Duncan Keith and Corey Crawford give them a chance and the fans hope. I guess it depends how realistic they can be the roadmap.
- Justin Lowe

Thanks for feedback.

Here is question to you Justin if the wheels come next year for the hawks and clearly not going to make the playoffs do the hawks start trading players like Keith towes crawford if healthy. IMO they already should have started that.
- Scott1977

Here’s another spin to the big PR machine. I’m sure that the higher ups as they’re called already gave their instructions no effing way, not with them going to Notre Dame to play the Winter classic in front of 80,000 people. And if they start out like a bunch of step and fetch’s and fall flat on their face I am sure they don’t want to get the proverbial PR kick in the ass with 70,000 fans cheering for the Bruins .My gut feeling, is if there were no winter classic this year, they would be more forthright on what they are going to plan for this year. They’re riding on a wing and a prayer that they start out good. Just my opinion.

Took Business and Sports Management in school at Brock University in St. Catherines (near Niagara).

Then worked his way up to become the Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds (OHL) GM at a super young age. He always had a great eye for talent and took a strong interest to advanced stats.

Then moved to the Leafs a few years ago.
- Justin Lowe

Brock??? When there for a year, nice school.

Here’s another spin to the big PR machine. I’m sure that the higher ups as they’re called already gave their instructions no effing way, not with them going to Notre Dame to play the Winter classic in front of 80,000 people. And if they start out like a bunch of step and fetch’s and fall flat on their face I am sure they don’t want to get the proverbial PR kick in the ass with 70,000 fans cheering for the Bruins .My gut feeling, is if there were no winter classic this year, they would be more forthright on what they are going to plan for this year. They’re riding on a wing and a prayer that they start out good. Just my opinion.
- wonthecup10

They've been in so many winter classics so far (feels like 100) and it's only 1 day, I don't know how much that is a factor for them.

I'm sure it does play into their thoughts a bit but can't see it changing their day-to-day. The overall thought should be to improve this team for 82 games. That hasn't happened yet. They are still the same(ish) team from last year.

Brock??? When there for a year, nice school.
- DarthKane

I've spent a lot of time their (dated a girl who went there + a lot of friends went there).

When were you there DK?

Enzo is a big boy so I'll let him defend himself. And I respect all efforts involved in the game, agree or disagree. And I have to admit I don't understand a lot of your advanced stats. But I'll give you a stat that is a slam dunk. 100% of the people who say size doesn't matter in a competitive high level hockey game are people who never participated in a full contact high level game, especially if fighting is allowed, and sometimes even if it's not.

Staged fights are ridiculous and a clown show. But digging the puck out of a corner or battling for position in front of a net with the possibility of getting your ass handed to you if the opposing player gets pissed takes guts. Believe me, size matters.

There's not as much fighting as there used to be in the NHL and that's a good thing. But the game is (or should be) emotional, tough, difficult. And sometimes poop is gonna happen. If there is a badass on the ice his team mates play bigger and the other team plays more careful. Once in a while there comes along a small guy who doesn't care about size. Like Shaw, but they tend to not last real long. Why? Size. It just (frank)ing matters over the course of a season.

I wish there was a way to measure heart and passion with your advanced stats. College womens teams played with more passion last year than the Hawks did. I'm not trying to be condescending, I have coached girls teams and they give an effort that's amazing and even saw one of the girls go on to play in the Olympics. Huge thrill for this guy.

You and Enzo both make sense most of the time. At least until you two start the sniping. Go pound an old fashioned while he has a smoke and everyone be well.
- 6628

Disagree there is no such thing as a staged fight. You fight for momentum for revenge of a teammate or personally or you do it to keep your spot in the lineup. I hate when people say staged fights if a fight is off a faceoff or if there is s fair square off.
And the level fighting at now 17 percent is a shame the nhl is missing that excitement factor that things could get intense at any moment. Today you look at some rosters and I've seen pee wee teams 5 years ago with more toughness. It's a shame all they have to do is just make sure if a guy is concussed he doesn't come back early. Even though it's a fact that less then 5 percent of concussions in hockey are caused by fighting.

And he'll be skating with a Hayden, Edjsell, Martinson, Luke Johnson, Kampf. Maybe playing with Kunitz bottom 6 guys will learn about compete and physical play, playing with an edge from a real pro at that style?
- Mr Ricochet

I just accept the fact that Kunitz is being brought in not for what he is going to do on the ice but more for his competitive mindset, work ethic and experience. He might even score a couple of goals and drop the mitts once or twice and that's gravy worth paying for.

Its even possible that the GM and Coach might be in agreement that a couple of young guys need some firm 'prodding' a couple of times a season. (Nick Schmaltz is a name that comes to mind).

And we also don't know if there is an agreement with Kunitz that he could go to Rockford at some point and do some of the things down there with the kids that Franson and Bouma did last season.

They've been in so many winter classics so far (feels like 100) and it's only 1 day, I don't know how much that is a factor for them.

I'm sure it does play into their thoughts a bit but can't see it changing their day-to-day. The overall thought should be to improve this team for 82 games. That hasn't happened yet. They are still the same(ish) team from last year.
- Justin Lowe

And I’m one of those guys that is not buying what they’re doing this summer. I got to see more Justin. I refuse to believe that Rocky and John are going to let them trot Out a team that has no intention of improving over last season or making the playoffs. If they think they are a playoff team right now is this roster is currently constructed they are sadly mistaken. And by January you will see about 8000 empty seats a night. And I know that will piss off Rocky and John big-time.So that’s why I am not buying this take a backseat and rebuild crap not with 22,000 seats a night. I just think Stan Bowman is in over his head and is unable to get done what he set out to do.