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Forums :: Blog World :: Peter Tessier: Jets fly past Avs in high-scoring affair
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Peter Tessier
Joined: 10.11.2011

Jan 9 @ 8:27 AM ET
Peter Tessier: Jets fly past Avs in high-scoring affair It was a rodeo on Portage last night in a 11 goal game.
islansjet
Winnipeg Jets
Joined: 03.13.2017

Jan 9 @ 9:24 AM ET
The Jets can't afford to be out shot by such a large margin every game and expect to win against teams with good goaltending. With the talent the Jets have they should be controlling play and getting more chances than they give up.
JimmyJet
Winnipeg Jets
Joined: 06.03.2014

Jan 9 @ 11:35 AM ET
CORSI is a garbage stat. It doesn't matter how many shots on goal or shot attempts there are, it matters from where those shot attempts take place and how the puck arrived at that area. (i.e. was it a seam pass to the slot, was the shot contested, was it a one-timer, was there a screen, did the player just screw up and miss a wide open net?

You need to examine all these variables including score effects. Being up 3 goals teams will bleed shots as the opposition just tosses pucks at the net from everywhere. Look no further than the Hurricanes as proof that this strategy won't work in the long run, even if you may get lucky in the short term.

I thought the Jets played fine against the TOP SCORING TEAM IN THE NHL. You need to give the Avs some credit. They can bring the offense. We put up 7 against them though so you can't complain too much. After-all big picture we are 1st in the Central with 2 games in hand and this win puts us 8 points ahead of the Avs with us having a game in hand.

2 for 2 versus central division playoff teams this week. Can we go 3 for 3 against the Wild? I think we can.

bikeguy99
New Jersey Devils
Joined: 09.05.2017

Jan 9 @ 11:59 AM ET
The Jets can't afford to be out shot by such a large margin every game and expect to win against teams with good goaltending. With the talent the Jets have they should be controlling play and getting more chances than they give up.
- islansjet


On one hand, you are right, on the other, the jets should win a run-and-gun game as well. Who do you think are the Jet's biggest opposition in the West? Preds have been faultering, I just dont think Col is a big threat with one line, but I think Calg and Sjs look pretty good these days
Rexypoo
Winnipeg Jets
Location: Yes
Joined: 02.08.2016

Jan 9 @ 12:43 PM ET
CORSI is a garbage stat. It doesn't matter how many shots on goal or shot attempts there are, it matters from where those shot attempts take place and how the puck arrived at that area. (i.e. was it a seam pass to the slot, was the shot contested, was it a one-timer, was there a screen, did the player just screw up and miss a wide open net?

You need to examine all these variables including score effects. Being up 3 goals teams will bleed shots as the opposition just tosses pucks at the net from everywhere. Look no further than the Hurricanes as proof that this strategy won't work in the long run, even if you may get lucky in the short term.

I thought the Jets played fine against the TOP SCORING TEAM IN THE NHL. You need to give the Avs some credit. They can bring the offense. We put up 7 against them though so you can't complain too much. After-all big picture we are 1st in the Central with 2 games in hand and this win puts us 8 points ahead of the Avs with us having a game in hand.

2 for 2 versus central division playoff teams this week. Can we go 3 for 3 against the Wild? I think we can.

- JimmyJet


The Hurricanes have ass goaltending, and a deficiency of Jeff Skinner scoring talent by the number of yes.

Of the past 10 cup winners, 7 have been top 3 Corsi teams. This is from memory, but I believe only Washington won out of the top 10.
Rexypoo
Winnipeg Jets
Location: Yes
Joined: 02.08.2016

Jan 9 @ 12:44 PM ET
On one hand, you are right, on the other, the jets should win a run-and-gun game as well. Who do you think are the Jet's biggest opposition in the West? Preds have been faultering, I just dont think Col is a big threat with one line, but I think Calg and Sjs look pretty good these days
- bikeguy99


San Jose and a healthy Nashville.

Realistically, the only team that will stop the Jets is the Jets. We’re one Scheifele injury away from dead in the water.
2.0
Winnipeg Jets
Location: Dauphin, MB
Joined: 09.11.2017

Jan 9 @ 1:43 PM ET
The Hurricanes have ass goaltending, and a deficiency of Jeff Skinner scoring talent by the number of yes.

Of the past 10 cup winners, 7 have been top 3 Corsi teams. This is from memory, but I believe only Washington won out of the top 10.

- Rexypoo



from 2006-2014 10% of teams with a top 10 Corsi played in the final

https://thehockeywriters.com/stanley-cup-recipe/

not really a useful stat game to game, but may have some significance when considering larger sample size (20+ games)
islansjet
Winnipeg Jets
Joined: 03.13.2017

Jan 9 @ 2:07 PM ET
On one hand, you are right, on the other, the jets should win a run-and-gun game as well. Who do you think are the Jet's biggest opposition in the West? Preds have been faultering, I just dont think Col is a big threat with one line, but I think Calg and Sjs look pretty good these days
- bikeguy99


Calgary is hot now but in the playoffs the Jets should be able to out muscle them. SJS are good but old so as the season go on I can see them fading in the playoffs. To me Nashville will be tough in the playoffs as they are big and dirty and will be able to take advantage of the way the refs call a game in the playoffs.
Pastor_Matt
Winnipeg Jets
Joined: 03.05.2018

Jan 9 @ 2:34 PM ET


Realistically, the only team that will stop the Jets is the Jets.

- Rexypoo


I agree with that Rex.
TheUltimateJet
Winnipeg Jets
Joined: 07.16.2013

Jan 9 @ 2:37 PM ET
Its official, Paul Maurice is the Dwayne Casey of the NHL. This team has too much talent to lose, however when push comes to shove, I am unsure if this team will succeed.

CharlieDog
Winnipeg Jets
Location: MB
Joined: 01.17.2017

Jan 9 @ 2:39 PM ET
Its official, Paul Maurice is the Dwayne Casey of the NHL. This team has too much talent to lose, however when push comes to shove, I am unsure if this team will succeed.
- TheUltimateJet


Wise words Rexy.
CharlieDog
Winnipeg Jets
Location: MB
Joined: 01.17.2017

Jan 9 @ 2:43 PM ET
San Jose and a healthy Nashville.

Realistically, the only team that will stop the Jets is the Jets. We’re one Scheifele injury away from dead in the water.

- Rexypoo


Well, when Scheifs went down last year, it didn't slow the team down.

Using your analogy, you could say we are one serious Hellebucyk injury away from dead in the water if that injury happens "after" the trade deadline. Otherwise, keep calm and carry on!
Ross77
Winnipeg Jets
Joined: 11.21.2014

Jan 9 @ 2:58 PM ET
Well, when Scheifs went down last year, it didn't slow the team down.

Using your analogy, you could say we are one serious Hellebucyk injury away from dead in the water if that injury happens "after" the trade deadline. Otherwise, keep calm and carry on!

- CharlieDog


correct, when Shief, buff or Trouba were all out we had the worst record with trouba out.
CharlieDog
Winnipeg Jets
Location: MB
Joined: 01.17.2017

Jan 9 @ 3:08 PM ET
correct, when Shief, buff or Trouba were all out we had the worst record with trouba out.
- Ross77


Last year when Scheifs was out, Wheeler moved to the middle and performed awesome for a right winger turned centre man.

I have actually wondered to myself, and now on HB,.... if we can't find that elusive 2nd line centre like we did last year with Statsny, do you dare even think of splitting up the first line and moving Wheeler to centre the second line?

I was hesitant to ask this but there are lots of comments to break up the #1 line and spread the talent around, but if you do, do you just stick Wheeler on the 2nd line wing or plug him into centre? We know that is not his first choice but just wondering what the thoughts are on this question??
JimmyJet
Winnipeg Jets
Joined: 06.03.2014

Jan 9 @ 3:40 PM ET
The Hurricanes have ass goaltending, and a deficiency of Jeff Skinner scoring talent by the number of yes.

Of the past 10 cup winners, 7 have been top 3 Corsi teams. This is from memory, but I believe only Washington won out of the top 10.

- Rexypoo


I'm going to suggest to you that they had more dangerous scoring chances than their opposition and that is what drove the results. Not the shear barrage of pucks being flung at the net from all over the ice.

I believe expected goals tries to account for this. What were the expected goals for these teams? (I don't think it was tracked)

If you know that a weak backhand from the point with no traffic will be stopped 100% of the time and a backdoor tap in will be a goal nearly 100% of the time, how could you count those 2 shots as being equal? I would take 2 back door tap ins instead of 500 weak backhands from the point. CORSI would show I'm getting caved in but I'd win every game. a.k.a. CORSI doesn't show what people think it does. It's just a volume measure that doesn't account for how likely any of the shots will result in goals.

You need to weigh the shot attempts based on where they come from and the difficulty of the save (lateral movement, screen, deflected, low to high shot, uncontested shot, breakaways) Without doing that CORSI doesn't actually tell you anything.
2.0
Winnipeg Jets
Location: Dauphin, MB
Joined: 09.11.2017

Jan 9 @ 4:40 PM ET
Last year when Scheifs was out, Wheeler moved to the middle and performed awesome for a right winger turned centre man.

I have actually wondered to myself, and now on HB,.... if we can't find that elusive 2nd line centre like we did last year with Statsny, do you dare even think of splitting up the first line and moving Wheeler to centre the second line?

I was hesitant to ask this but there are lots of comments to break up the #1 line and spread the talent around, but if you do, do you just stick Wheeler on the 2nd line wing or plug him into centre? We know that is not his first choice but just wondering what the thoughts are on this question??

- CharlieDog


every option should be on the table but the Sheifle Wheeler combo is working and the team is winning games. My preferred change is to move Laine up to the first line to see if he can be 'jump-started' and dangerous there again. If not 1st then maybe 4th line is the place for him.

I am not a fan of having 4 equally talented lines, the best players see reduced ice time and performance is watered down. A stacked line somewhere will take advantage of opportunity. Rolling lines with a lead is important, and also on back-to-backs and some stretches of schedule (like jets are in now). If they chase the game though the bench needs to be shortened, 4th line used opportunistically.
Rexypoo
Winnipeg Jets
Location: Yes
Joined: 02.08.2016

Jan 9 @ 4:57 PM ET
Wise words Rexy.
- CharlieDog


I don’t watch basketball. Do not do this
Rexypoo
Winnipeg Jets
Location: Yes
Joined: 02.08.2016

Jan 9 @ 4:59 PM ET
Last year when Scheifs was out, Wheeler moved to the middle and performed awesome for a right winger turned centre man.

I have actually wondered to myself, and now on HB,.... if we can't find that elusive 2nd line centre like we did last year with Statsny, do you dare even think of splitting up the first line and moving Wheeler to centre the second line?

I was hesitant to ask this but there are lots of comments to break up the #1 line and spread the talent around, but if you do, do you just stick Wheeler on the 2nd line wing or plug him into centre? We know that is not his first choice but just wondering what the thoughts are on this question??

- CharlieDog


No. Wheeler got destroyed on a nightly basis. Ran a 35% for Corsi, and it actually dropped his entire stat line to the point I thought he might be hitting the age cliff
Rexypoo
Winnipeg Jets
Location: Yes
Joined: 02.08.2016

Jan 9 @ 5:15 PM ET
I'm going to suggest to you that they had more dangerous scoring chances than their opposition and that is what drove the results. Not the shear barrage of pucks being flung at the net from all over the ice.

I believe expected goals tries to account for this. What were the expected goals for these teams? (I don't think it was tracked)

If you know that a weak backhand from the point with no traffic will be stopped 100% of the time and a backdoor tap in will be a goal nearly 100% of the time, how could you count those 2 shots as being equal? I would take 2 back door tap ins instead of 500 weak backhands from the point. CORSI would show I'm getting caved in but I'd win every game. a.k.a. CORSI doesn't show what people think it does. It's just a volume measure that doesn't account for how likely any of the shots will result in goals.

You need to weigh the shot attempts based on where they come from and the difficulty of the save (lateral movement, screen, deflected, low to high shot, uncontested shot, breakaways) Without doing that CORSI doesn't actually tell you anything.

- JimmyJet


This is a good argument when looking at on a game by game basis, but it doesn’t do much for me in large samples. Everything you’re talking about levels out over time, and makes this unimportant in the long run. In the same way quality of competition levels out, and doesn’t really affect a players numbers.
liverpoolnhl
Winnipeg Jets
Joined: 02.06.2018

Jan 9 @ 6:10 PM ET
Pete,
What's your status for the Saturday get together at The Pint?......
liverpoolnhl
Winnipeg Jets
Joined: 02.06.2018

Jan 9 @ 6:13 PM ET
BE THERE OR BE SQUARE!

SATURDAY 3:00-5:30 at THE PINT. FREE BEER AND WINGS........
Ross77
Winnipeg Jets
Joined: 11.21.2014

Jan 9 @ 6:47 PM ET
Last year when Scheifs was out, Wheeler moved to the middle and performed awesome for a right winger turned centre man.

I have actually wondered to myself, and now on HB,.... if we can't find that elusive 2nd line centre like we did last year with Statsny, do you dare even think of splitting up the first line and moving Wheeler to centre the second line?

I was hesitant to ask this but there are lots of comments to break up the #1 line and spread the talent around, but if you do, do you just stick Wheeler on the 2nd line wing or plug him into centre? We know that is not his first choice but just wondering what the thoughts are on this question??

- CharlieDog

I think personally I’d prefer we try Lowry as 2nd line Center with more offensive wingers and then have little and Copp to Center more checking 3rd and 4th lines
Ross77
Winnipeg Jets
Joined: 11.21.2014

Jan 9 @ 6:49 PM ET
BE THERE OR BE SQUARE!

SATURDAY 3:00-5:30 at THE PINT. FREE BEER AND WINGS........

- liverpoolnhl

I’ll be there
Ross77
Winnipeg Jets
Joined: 11.21.2014

Jan 9 @ 6:49 PM ET
BE THERE OR BE SQUARE!

SATURDAY 3:00-5:30 at THE PINT. FREE BEER AND WINGS........

- liverpoolnhl

Hey, how will we know what table???
Rexypoo
Winnipeg Jets
Location: Yes
Joined: 02.08.2016

Jan 9 @ 6:55 PM ET
Hey, how will we know what table???
- Ross77


I’ll also be there. And instantly recognizable.
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