I disagree there.

It looks like this season's most straight comparable in terms of shot volume and production is '13-'14 when he took 274 shots (projected 270 this year), scored 33 goals and shot 12%

I think Eichel's vision adds 7 goals to that total and makes him a consistent 40 goal guy even while shooting at a reduced 12% which is his career average (11.4).
- jcragcrumple

Sure but you're also disregarding the seasons when he scored 13 (in 42 games), 18, 28 and 24 goals.

He's pretty consistently had 250+ shots over the last 6 years and has been all over the map in his percentages.

Also if you just look at his total shot attempts, you'll notice that they're all pretty consistent for the last 6 years...The lowest being 434 and the highest being 490. In fact, this season he's on track for his fewest shot attempts since he was 19 years old. He's just hitting the net a lot more this year and a lot more consistently than he ever has.

Sure but you're also disregarding the seasons when he scored 13 (in 42 games), 18, 28 and 24 goals.

He's pretty consistently had 250+ shots over the last 6 years and has been all over the map in his percentages.

Also if you just look at his total shot attempts, you'll notice that they're all pretty consistent for the last 6 years...The lowest being 434 and the highest being 490. In fact, this season he's on track for his fewest shot attempts since he was 19 years old. He's just hitting the net a lot more this year and a lot more consistently than he ever has.
- BINGO!

New team new skinny. Not disregarding your numbers but it makes a difference. Eichel is a game changer.

0 people have said it’s just about shots.

What are you arguing? That just taking shots and getting scoring chances doesn’t mean you will score? Of course? But you cannot score without them. Period
- sbroads24

No poop, Sherlock. But it is infinitely more complex than that. I just showed that it really makes no difference to the Sabres this year whether or not they get more shots than the competition. So using shots and shot attempts to validate something is crazy.

No poop, Sherlock. But it is infinitely more complex than that. I just showed that it really makes no difference to the Sabres this year whether or not they get more shots than the competition. So using shots and shot attempts to validate something is crazy.
- Wetbandit1

What. Is.? What are you arguing?

Shooting and creating chances = good

There is no debate.

No player creating shots or chances is hurting there team.

Literally 0.00 statistics line up to match the standings. So that point is blatantly obvious and not necessary.

New team new skinny. Not disregarding your numbers but it makes a difference. Eichel is a game changer.
- Sabre_Tooth

Oh he absolutely is. That's why I say it's not unreasonable to expect him to be a 35ish goal guy consistently with Eichel.

Because let's be honest here, he's been great but unless he's the greatest shooter the world has ever seen, he's not going to keep this pace up forever.

Even at 14.4% over 270 shots that's 39 goals.

The guy has a career average shooting percentage of 11%, which is probably a bit low. With Eichel he should pretty consistently hit around 15%

I'm not saying he's bad or anything, just that he probably isn't going to be consistently netting 40+ per year or anything.

30-35 with Eichel is a pretty reasonable expectation for him going forward for the next couple years at least.
- BINGO!

If Skinner stays I think he can score 200 with Eichel.

Sure but you're also disregarding the seasons when he scored 13 (in 42 games), 18, 28 and 24 goals.

He's pretty consistently had 250+ shots over the last 6 years and has been all over the map in his percentages.

Also if you just look at his total shot attempts, you'll notice that they're all pretty consistent for the last 6 years...The lowest being 434 and the highest being 490. In fact, this season he's on track for his fewest shot attempts since he was 19 years old. He's just hitting the net a lot more this year and a lot more consistently than he ever has.
- BINGO!

His 3 lowest goal totals correspond with his 3 lowest shot total seasons

210
159
235

When you say you expect 30-35 goals when playing with Eichel, and he would have scored 38 goals with 270 shots (his current pace) at his previous high of 14.4% I'm confused. 14.4% is 3% off his his average. If he reached his career high in shots at 280 and shot 14.4%, that's 40 goals. And that doesn't factor Eichel in at all.

I'd say shooting at 14-15% for 270-280 shots with Eichel would equal 40g. The stats say as much

What. Is.? What are you arguing?

Shooting and creating chances = good

There is no debate.

No player creating shots or chances is hurting there team.

Literally 0.00 statistics line up to match the standings. So that point is blatantly obvious and not necessary.
- sbroads24

Good, but not indicative of anything. Kind of like faceoffs, yes, winning them is better than losing them, but in the end it has no bearing on the outcome because everyone is so close. It's not perfect, it's theoretically possible to win a game without winning a faceoff, but on the other hand, I guess it's also theoretically possible to win a game without a SOG, so maybe it is a better comparison than I thought.

Good, but not indicative of anything. Kind of like faceoffs, yes, winning them is better than losing them, but in the end it has no bearing on the outcome because everyone is so close. It's not perfect, it's theoretically possible to win a game without winning a faceoff, but on the other hand, I guess it's also theoretically possible to win a game without a SOG, so maybe it is a better comparison than I thought.
- Wetbandit1

No, it’s nothing like face offs. Not at all.

You could theoretically go 82-0 without scoring a single goal in regulation or OT so I guess saying goals are important isn’t a smart thing to say

No, it’s nothing like face offs. Not at all.
- sbroads24

The numbers say otherwise. It's a scattergun plot, just like faceoffs. The Sabres are a perfect example, right around .500 and there is no statistically significant difference in wins when outshooting vs being outshot. Just like with faceoffs.

You could theoretically go 82-0 without scoring a single goal in regulation or OT so I guess saying goals are important isn’t a smart thing to say
- sbroads24

It's not about "oh there's an outlier or 2" there's literally no pattern.

0 people have said it’s just about shots.

What are you arguing? That just taking shots and getting scoring chances doesn’t mean you will score? Of course? But you cannot score without them. Period
- sbroads24

The question is the efficacy of the shots taken. Thompson is currently a 6.5% (career) shooter. So it's great that he's taken a lot of shots, buts it's not indicative of future team or personal success until he has a shooting percentage higher than Johan Larsson. Shots, in a vacuum, prove nothing

No, it’s nothing like face offs. Not at all.
- sbroads24

I think you're talking about individuals scoring goals, which, obviously, you have to shoot to score, unless you're Sam Reinhart, and I'm talking about collective team success, which, at the end of the day, is what matters.

I think you're talking about individuals scoring goals, which, obviously, you have to shoot to score, unless you're Sam Reinhart, and I'm talking about collective team success, which, at the end of the day, is what matters.
- Wetbandit1

Enjoy your samcakes

The question is the efficacy of the shots taken. Thompson is currently a 6.5% (career) shooter. So it's great that he's taken a lot of shots, buts it's not indicative of future team or personal success until he has a shooting percentage higher than Johan Larsson. Shots, in a vacuum, prove nothing
- jcragcrumple

That is very true. Although when a guy is on the ice I’d rather be getting more scoring opportunities then having a higher chance of being scored on. A guy might be on the ice for 10 chances against and not be scored on once. A guy could be on the ice the only darn time there is a solid scoring chance and it can go in our net. There are a variety of factors that play into everything. Thompson has earned his promotion to the first line and that’s all I’ll say about that.

The numbers say otherwise. It's a scattergun plot, just like faceoffs. The Sabres are a perfect example, right around .500 and there is no statistically significant difference in wins when outshooting vs being outshot. Just like with faceoffs.
- Wetbandit1

Lol, no they don’t. I have 0 idea what you are even trying to say.

This conversation started over Thompson

Thompson is a forward, a forwards objective is to score, you score by shooting and scoring chances. Goals help you win games. Therefore- Thompson is doing things that help win hockey games. The bounces and nuances are secondary, and Thompson has gotten 0 fortunate bounces.

There is 0 argument otherwise. I don’t get wtf you are trying to say

That is very true. Although when a guy is on the ice I’d rather be getting more scoring opportunities then having a higher chance of being scored on. A guy might be on the ice for 10 chances against and not be scored on once. A guy could be on the ice the only darn time there is a solid scoring chance and it can go in our net. There are a variety of factors that play into everything. Thompson has earned his promotion to the first line and that’s all I’ll say about that.
- Pegullaville

I'm super excited for him. These kids need a shot. If Thompson can gel with Eichel, and Reinhart can produce without him, we might really have something.

Lol, no they don’t. I have 0 idea what you are even trying to say.

This conversation started over Thompson

Thompson is a forward, a forwards objective is to score, you score by shooting and scoring chances. Goals help you win games. Therefore- Thompson is doing things that help win hockey games. The bounces and nuances are secondary, and Thompson has gotten 0 fortunate bounces.

There is 0 argument otherwise. I don’t get wtf you are trying to say
- sbroads24

Read 3 more posts from the one you just responded to.

I'm super excited for him. These kids need a shot. If Thompson can gel with Eichel, and Reinhart can produce without him, we might really have something.
- jcragcrumple

I'd say we are more likely to be 0 for 2.

Some players do not gel with eichel
Some players do not gel without eichel.

On a positive note- this exact senario would get us in the playoffs.

Jbotts and phil have been patient with tage/eich combo

Lol, no they don’t. I have 0 idea what you are even trying to say.

This conversation started over Thompson

Thompson is a forward, a forwards objective is to score, you score by shooting and scoring chances. Goals help you win games. Therefore- Thompson is doing things that help win hockey games. The bounces and nuances are secondary, and Thompson has gotten 0 fortunate bounces.

There is 0 argument otherwise. I don’t get wtf you are trying to say
- sbroads24

Nathan Beaulieu is a defender, a defender's objective is NOT primarily as a goal scorer.

He has the same g/pg as Tage this season. Actually, 0.01 less. By your standard, Beualieu is doing things that help win hockey games, but people are questioning whether he should come back to the team. I can't imagine that's over 0.01 g/pg.

What I'm trying to say is take a cold shower.

Caps are 6th in goals per game, but 23rd in shots for per game. Carolina is 1st in shots for per game and tied for 27th in goals per game. Yes, Tampa is 1st in goals and 5th in shots. NJ and Boston are also 7th and 8th in shots, but 18th and 17th respectively in goals.

San Jose allow the least shots but give up the 18th most goals per game. Nashville allows the 3rd fewest shots and gives up the fewest goals. Ottawa allows the most shots and goals. St Louis allows the 7th fewest shots and gives up the 9th most goals.

It's clearly about more than just shots. Yes, there's a strong correlation, and yes you should try and get guys who generate shots, but if there are that many outliers, in a single season, your thesis is very flawed. Hockey is probably the most complex of the major sports and to try and boil success down into one thing is, frankly, asinine.

There are 2542 regular season games played, I wonder how many times a team that gets outshot wins?

I did the Sabres games from this year: when the Sabres outshoot their opponent they are 10-8, when they get outshot they are 12-12, with one tie in shots against the Pens that the Sabres won. Make of that what you will.
- Wetbandit1

Especially when you’re talking about individual players
And even moreso on a per game basis

Nathan Beaulieu is a defender, a defender's objective is NOT primarily as a goal scorer.

He has the same g/pg as Tage this season. Actually, 0.01 less. By your standard, Beualieu is doing things that help win hockey games, but people are questioning whether he should come back to the team. I can't imagine that's over 0.01 g/pg.

What I'm trying to say is take a cold shower.
- Der Kaiser

NB has had two open net tap in goals from beautiful feeds from forwards who generated offense by possessing the puck and getting pucks to the net. Any other questions?

NB has had two open net tap in goals from beautiful feeds from forwards who generated offense by possessing the puck and getting pucks to the net. Any other questions?
- sbroads24

What has Tage done with the chances when he got them?

The organization apparently believes so. I think it's due to his ELC technically sliding because he's eligible to play in the AHL at 18 and 19. Or something odd like that.
- BINGO!

Gotcha
Yeah, that could affect things