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Forums :: Blog World :: Justin Lowe: Off-Season Checklist
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DarthKane
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 5.13.4.9
Joined: 02.23.2012

Apr 15 @ 11:53 AM ET
But is Cozens an real NHL center next year, or the next year, or the year after that? Hard to say exactly when a guy will be ready and effective at an NHL level. I wouldn't pencil a 2019 draft pick into the lineup until they prove it.
- breadbag



That is true, and that's why I qualified my statement by saying "if he makes the team". If he doesn't then I wouldn't be surprised to see AA stick around.
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Apr 15 @ 11:54 AM ET
Assume the cap goes up 3.5M to 83M. The following teams will have some cap trouble this year per capfriendly. These teams will have to move someone like the Hawks did in past years to alleviate their cap problems. Like the Hawks they may not be moving out their core pieces, but there should be depth players on the market. I would think the Hawks would be able to get a useful part or two from any of these teams.

Tampa Bay has 16 players signed and 10M in cap space. Have to sign RFA's Point and Paquette. 3 veteran D Stralman Coburn, Giradi will be UFA so they may resign one of them or have to bring in replacements. Any takers for Callahan's 5.8M for or year if TB throws in a sweetener?

Winnipeg has 12 players signed and 27M in cap space. RFA's are Laine, Trouba, Copp and Connor.

Las Vegas has 17 players signed and is already at about next year's cap. Top RFA is William Karlsson. I may have mentioned before some VGK players I like... Eakin, McNabb, Miller.

Toronto has 19 players signed and 7M+ in cap space. Guess who has to be signed yet? Yes Marner, Kapanen and Johnsson. They probably need a veteran D also to replace Gardiner or Hainsey. I can see Kadri being one of the odd men out, but after his actions on Saturday, he would be a risk to take on.

Washington has 16 players signed and 11M in cap space. Burakovsky and Jaskin are RFA's.

Pittsburgh has 18 players signed and 3M in cap space. Seen a rumour about Kessel and his 6M being put on the market.

- boilermaker100

Since when have you liked Eakin, McNabb, and Miller? Just kidding.

Poaching from cap impacted teams is definitely an option. And that’s totally fine if the players available are depth players. Many of them are pretty good depth pieces.

The Hawks are fine in the top 6. Could always use another weapon but it’s not a weakness. Strengthening the bottom 6 and obtaining 1-2 reliable defenders who can eat minutes are critical. Those new D men don’t necessarily need to be 1/2/3 material as long as they are solid in their own end.

So depth players from other teams may be sufficient. Helps to preserve cap space for later.
paulr
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: YYZ
Joined: 06.26.2011

Apr 15 @ 11:59 AM ET
That is true, and that's why I qualified my statement by saying "if he makes the team". If he doesn't then I wouldn't be surprised to see AA stick around.
- DarthKane

Qualified statements don't count around here Palie.
MjulQvist
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 04.22.2012

Apr 15 @ 12:00 PM ET
R.I.P Dmitri Nabokov. Blackhawks first round pick in 1995.
PatShart
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Vegas, NV
Joined: 06.25.2015

Apr 15 @ 12:02 PM ET
AA is now soft?

Up until this year - when he moved down to the 4th line and wing...he was a consistent 20/20 guy that plays a full 200ft game, goes to the net..

He is/was (when they trade him) one of the better 2 way forwards whose ice time was cut when JC took over (and subsequently the whole team D took a dump when matchups and an actual defensive system became a thing of the past)

I'm for trading him if it improves the team, but the false narrative that he is now or was useless is wrong.

The organization should look to see if they can get a guy like Hitchcock to be an assistant coach to teach JC the concept of a team D and how to manage a bench/get favorable matchups
-Doh-
Location: VA
Joined: 10.05.2015

Apr 15 @ 12:02 PM ET
Adding the right defensemen is key. I am not sure who that is or how much it will cost. I am not sure if it is a UFA, RFA or someone we acquire in trade. Barring a major surprise 5 of the other 6 defenders will be Joki, Keith, Seabs, Murphy, and Gus. The 7th defender could be Hillman, Dahlstrom, Koekkoek.

But just as important to the team defense is building forward lines the right way.
1) With the correct wingers (not Kane) the Toews line should be a 200' line. Saad? Caggiula? Podkolzin?
2) ADB, Strome, Kane will never be a strong defensive line. But that's ok.
3) Is Kampf a shut down center for the 4th line with the right linemates? Caggiula? Tanev? If Kampf is not the guy you need to go out and get one.
4) the Hawks have enough talent to form a decent 3rd line. AA if he is not moved? Kahun if he does not play on the top line? Kuablik if he does not play on the top line? A first round pick if they do not play on the top line? Perlini? Sikura? Hayden? Highmore?

Somehow they need to add 2 or 3 players (1 defender and 2 forwards) that play a physical game, preferable with some size, speed, toughness (mean streak) and some offensive skills. With cap space, the #3 pick in the draft, and maybe an extra really good defensive prospect or two Bowman can be creative in reworking this roster.

A healthy Crow and full training camp with Colliton won't hurt either.
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Apr 15 @ 12:13 PM ET
Adding the right defensemen is key. I am not sure who that is or how much it will cost. I am not sure if it is a UFA, RFA or someone we acquire in trade. Barring a major surprise 5 of the other 6 defenders will be Joki, Keith, Seabs, Murphy, and Gus. The 7th defender could be Hillman, Dahlstrom, Koekkoek.

But just as important to the team defense is building forward lines the right way.
1) With the correct wingers (not Kane) the Toews line should be a 200' line. Saad? Caggiula? Podkolzin?
2) ADB, Strome, Kane will never be a strong defensive line. But that's ok.
3) Is Kampf a shut down center for the 4th line with the right linemates? Caggiula? Tanev? If Kampf is not the guy you need to go out and get one.
4) the Hawks have enough talent to form a decent 3rd line. AA if he is not moved? Kahun if he does not play on the top line? Kuablik if he does not play on the top line? A first round pick if they do not play on the top line? Perlini? Sikura? Hayden? Highmore?

Somehow they need to add 2 or 3 players (1 defender and 2 forwards) that play a physical game, preferable with some size, speed, toughness (mean streak) and some offensive skills. With cap space, the #3 pick in the draft, and maybe an extra really good defensive prospect or two Bowman can be creative in reworking this roster.

A healthy Crow and full training camp with Colliton won't hurt either.

- -Doh-

Getting 1-2 defenders and 2 bottom 6 forwards shouldn't have to break the bank. No high-end free agents needed. One option is what boilermaker and others have proposed, i.e. deal with teams up against the cap for their depth players. There could be a middle 6 forward or 2nd pair defender in that mix.

Some internal growth amongst the youngsters is to be expected. Maybe a surprise prospect or two but wouldn't bank on this too much.

Other wild cards: #3 draft pick, Kubalik, and fate of both Anisimov and Gustafsson.

EbonyRaptor
Joined: 03.28.2013

Apr 15 @ 12:22 PM ET
The worst to first "Goals Against" turnaround by the Islanders is remarkable. The went from an 80 point team to a playoff team with 103 points. Their goals-for/goals-against numbers from the last 2 seasons are:

2017/18: GF=264, GA=296
2018/19: GF=228, GA=196

The players did see their scoring numbers decrease significantly though and that may or may not be accepted well. Their leading scorer (Barzal) went from a 85 point season in 2017/18 to a 62 point season this year. Other Islander players had significant drop offs as well. Like it or not - players earn bigger paychecks based on scoring numbers and the defensive system Trotz has them playing is good for team success but not so much for personal earnings.

But, it doesn't have to be an all or nothing thing either. Many of the goals against were preventable by better 5-man defense when the opponent has possession in our d-zone, which really isn't a result of playing fire engine offensive hockey - it's a result of poor defensive play. There were some goals scored by giving up breakaways and 2-on-1's because the d-men got caught in the o-zone but those were fewer by far than the goals given up by poor d-zone defense.

EbonyRaptor
Joined: 03.28.2013

Apr 15 @ 12:24 PM ET
I also am curious if our defense is going to be different since JC has a summer to work with the team.
- BetweenTheDots


If they aren't than Colliton is not the guy for the job. There must be organic growth, both in terms of individual play and team defense.
Chunk
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Why did I move back here again?, IL
Joined: 11.06.2015

Apr 15 @ 12:29 PM ET
AA is now soft?

Up until this year - when he moved down to the 4th line and wing...he was a consistent 20/20 guy that plays a full 200ft game, goes to the net..

He is/was (when they trade him) one of the better 2 way forwards whose ice time was cut when JC took over (and subsequently the whole team D took a dump when matchups and an actual defensive system became a thing of the past)

I'm for trading him if it improves the team, but the false narrative that he is now or was useless is wrong.

The organization should look to see if they can get a guy like Hitchcock to be an assistant coach to teach JC the concept of a team D and how to manage a bench/get favorable matchups

- PatShart


Yeah, I never understood that either. The main knocks on him are that he doesn't put up "enough" points and that he is slow. In his time here, I think AA has provided very strong two-way play and contributed a lot offensively. I also think that once he gets going he has pretty good speed, it just takes him an extra couple of strides to get there.


-Doh-
Location: VA
Joined: 10.05.2015

Apr 15 @ 12:29 PM ET
Getting 1-2 defenders and 2 bottom 6 forwards shouldn't have to break the bank. No high-end free agents needed. One option is what boilermaker and others have proposed, i.e. deal with teams up against the cap for their depth players. There could be a middle 6 forward or 2nd pair defender in that mix.

Some internal growth amongst the youngsters is to be expected. Maybe a surprise prospect or two but wouldn't bank on this too much.

Other wild cards: #3 draft pick, Kubalik, and fate of both Anisimov and Gustafsson.

- AEL_Fox


Totally agree. Bowman has a lot of options this summer for a change. I would expect a few minor (yet significant) signings and/or trades. But I would not be surprised with something major.
-Doh-
Location: VA
Joined: 10.05.2015

Apr 15 @ 12:34 PM ET
Yeah, I never understood that either. The main knocks on him are that he doesn't put up "enough" points and that he is slow. In his time here, I think AA has provided very strong two-way play and contributed a lot offensively. I also think that once he gets going he has pretty good speed, it just takes him an extra couple of strides to get there.
- Chunk


At $4.55 mil AA is ok. 3C (could play 2C in a pinch), 20/20 player, not fast, not great at the dot, not overly physical or outstanding on D. I would not mind seeing him back next year. But I would not mind seeing a better 3C either at about the same price or even slightly more.
EbonyRaptor
Joined: 03.28.2013

Apr 15 @ 12:39 PM ET
My opinion on Anisimov is that he is more valuable than given credit for. He is the low hanging fruit when looking for someone to trade because he doesn't put up big scoring numbers and has a wart or two in his game. But he does some things very well and one of those things is in short supply on the Hawks and that is stand in front of the net and take the goalie's eyes away. He stands there and takes the cross checks to the back and he's pretty darn good at deflecting/tipping shots and tapping in rebounds.

I'm not against replacing Anisimov but I don't see it as a requirement either. Any 3C that is better than Anisimov isn't going to save much or any salary cap space. He is a place holder until the Hawks have a prospect on his ELC ready to replace him in either 2020/21 or after Anisimov's contract runs out heading into the 2021/22 season.
Elbows15
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I was going to do the math on this but I don't think it will help., IL
Joined: 08.04.2013

Apr 15 @ 12:40 PM ET
A number of People have wanted him gone for a while for various reasons. Kubalik I believe is a wing so you still need a 3C if AA is dealt.

Maybe the Jets would deal Copp as their impending Cap hell is about to begin since he’s an RFA and I think Roslovic could slot in at 3C for him.

Someone like that would be a good add and satisfies for me as well another player in the Caggiula mold for your 3rd line.

Also, addressing Taylor’s point from the last blog. I think it’s more than just a little bit wrong to label Kampf soft or lacking grit or whatever he leveled at him.

Watch his play along the boards and tell me he isn’t a perfect bottom 6 player. Here we go again with the silly narrative that because a guy isn’t knocking players into next Tuesday they are somehow soft.

- HawkintheD


Both Copp and Roslovic play the wings for the most part. Tho, Copp takes a lot of FOs but I have always seen him on the wing with Winny. Not sure he has the offense for a 3C role in today's NHL. Roslovic may, tho. Not saying I wouldn't want either player but as of right now, AA provides more production. Both of them get predominantly O-zone starts.

Of the two, Roslovic would appear to have a better chance of increased offensive output with different usage. Copp has never really put up big numbers at any level.
scottak
Location: I am serious. And don't call me Shirley!
Joined: 08.06.2010

Apr 15 @ 12:42 PM ET
The worst to first "Goals Against" turnaround by the Islanders is remarkable. The went from an 80 point team to a playoff team with 103 points. Their goals-for/goals-against numbers from the last 2 seasons are:

2017/18: GF=264, GA=296
2018/19: GF=228, GA=196

The players did see their scoring numbers decrease significantly though and that may or may not be accepted well. Their leading scorer (Barzal) went from a 85 point season in 2017/18 to a 62 point season this year. Other Islander players had significant drop offs as well. Like it or not - players earn bigger paychecks based on scoring numbers and the defensive system Trotz has them playing is good for team success but not so much for personal earnings.

But, it doesn't have to be an all or nothing thing either. Many of the goals against were preventable by better 5-man defense when the opponent has possession in our d-zone, which really isn't a result of playing fire engine offensive hockey - it's a result of poor defensive play. There were some goals scored by giving up breakaways and 2-on-1's because the d-men got caught in the o-zone but those were fewer by far than the goals given up by poor d-zone defense.

- EbonyRaptor

Preventing scoring remains more important, in all sports, than scoring. Until they get the GA straightened out, they're going nowhere.

Maybe JC can get it done, but I’m not hopeful. I didn’t check his numbers in Sweden, but the Ice Hogs ranked 22nd in GA in his only year there.
Elbows15
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I was going to do the math on this but I don't think it will help., IL
Joined: 08.04.2013

Apr 15 @ 12:45 PM ET
Those are the type of UFAs Stan should pursue, I'd take one of them in addition to Tanev. The Hawks need options on the PK, so I would take Nelson over Dzingel.

Nelson - Toews - Kane
Debrincat - Strome - Kahun
Kubalik - Cozens - Saad
Cagguila - Kampf - Perlini
Hayden/Veteran UFA

I don't have an issue with Anisimov, but if the Hawks draft Cozens (and he makes the team) there isn't much room for #15 on the team. Other teams like Ottawa and Florida will pick up AA for a couple mid-round picks.

- DarthKane

Perlini isn't capable of a 4th line role. IMO, to get the best out of him, if possible, he would need to be in a scoring type role. Putting him in a shutdown type of role wouldn't be placing him a role to succeed. Hayden would be better suited for that type of role.
frafra
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 10.21.2011

Apr 15 @ 12:45 PM ET
If Anisimov is not moved this summer, then the Hawks should look to move him to wing. Go out this summer and add strong center depth during free agency, or do it through the draft. I hope that with the #3 pick they get a center.
Elbows15
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I was going to do the math on this but I don't think it will help., IL
Joined: 08.04.2013

Apr 15 @ 12:50 PM ET
Since when have you liked Eakin, McNabb, and Miller? Just kidding.

Poaching from cap impacted teams is definitely an option. And that’s totally fine if the players available are depth players. Many of them are pretty good depth pieces.

The Hawks are fine in the top 6. Could always use another weapon but it’s not a weakness. Strengthening the bottom 6 and obtaining 1-2 reliable defenders who can eat minutes are critical. Those new D men don’t necessarily need to be 1/2/3 material as long as they are solid in their own end.

So depth players from other teams may be sufficient. Helps to preserve cap space for later.

- AEL_Fox

I would definitely take on Callahan' contract if the accompany piece(s) were good enough. His contract only has one year so its not an issue moving forward. He would definitely help in a 4th line role and the PK. He seems to be considered a good team mate and would fit into the locker room.
Elbows15
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I was going to do the math on this but I don't think it will help., IL
Joined: 08.04.2013

Apr 15 @ 12:53 PM ET
But is Cozens an real NHL center next year, or the next year, or the year after that? Hard to say exactly when a guy will be ready and effective at an NHL level. I wouldn't pencil a 2019 draft pick into the lineup until they prove it.
- breadbag


While I think this draft is loaded with talent, I think its a group that needs some development time. Kakko and Hughes? appear to be the only ones most scouts think can step into the NHL.
breadbag
Location: Edmonton, AB
Joined: 11.30.2015

Apr 15 @ 12:55 PM ET
I read and RESPECT YOUR BULLET POINT OPINIONS, BUT, I think Anisimov is a a role of a centre who by definition has to play a "engagement" style, so, I don't view him as a non-contact centre, because it ii /was always part of his job with Kane and Panarin.
When we talk about limited offensive game, well, I have seen some nice NHL goals by him. I am not so sure you can just find another replacement ready in the system or a team has a real ent they are giving away.(I love Jack rosovic, but I think there is little chance the Jest are not seeing the upside I see for him, so probably not trading him...)
Well conditioned athletes can be very effective after 30 now.
The face off h% as always been about where it is, not sure you want to look for the face off attribute over the entire package with another guy, but there is no way this team can afford a "specialist' in the area, and guys good in the dot are less likely to get moved also.

I am certain once the replacement is there, whether by the #3 overall or a trade, or the really feel they have a guy that they are gonna sign as an UFA and they need hisCap space this summer, he plays out the contract.

- wiz1901


I also respect your response and opinion. I full admit I could be dead wrong about him. I just don't feel like AA is the guy who shows up game after game with the competitive spirit we need. He isn't the guy that will use his size to shove someone off the puck, but will just shadow more passively until the attacker finds another option as they breakdown our D coverage. I just feel like we need someone with more bite to play on line 3. When the guy is on, he is really good, but seems like that is only 1/4 of the time. He can chip in goals on occasion, but his somewhat "average" production drops when he isn't with top 6 talent. I'm not expecting that we move him specifically for a "perfect" 3C or a true faceoff specialist. Just hoping we can find someone for that role with more edge, who is near 50%, and is on the right side of their prime (possibly). If they can use AA as part of a deal to get D help, I think they should consider it. I don't think filling holes on the team is a one trade fix all or sign one guy deal. I think Stan could find some under the radar help for line 3 and what AA brings isn't irreplaceable. We might not have a guy who is sure fire ready to step in today, but it is a long off-season and we can't ignore there are areas the team can improve.

I think the Hawks had a below average 3rd line for a few seasons now and that has to change if they want to really get into contention.
paulr
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: YYZ
Joined: 06.26.2011

Apr 15 @ 12:56 PM ET
Perlini isn't capable of a 4th line role. IMO, to get the best out of him, if possible, he would need to be in a scoring type role. Putting him in a shutdown type of role wouldn't be placing him a role to succeed. Hayden would be better suited for that type of role.
- Elbows15

My fear with Perlini is the Hawks move him and he goes to a team where a coach is able to get his ear and get him to play to his potential. We saw a few games what he can be, a big, fast, confident forwrd with a big shot and quick release. I really want to see Colliton work with him to try to motivate him and define a role for him.
Elbows15
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I was going to do the math on this but I don't think it will help., IL
Joined: 08.04.2013

Apr 15 @ 12:57 PM ET
Yeah, I never understood that either. The main knocks on him are that he doesn't put up "enough" points and that he is slow. In his time here, I think AA has provided very strong two-way play and contributed a lot offensively. I also think that once he gets going he has pretty good speed, it just takes him an extra couple of strides to get there.
- Chunk

Big dudes never look like they are fast. The knock on AA was his effort was inconsistent. I have never seen that from him in his time here. I always felt he gave an honest effort. He definitely is not soft.
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Apr 15 @ 1:00 PM ET
My opinion on Anisimov is that he is more valuable than given credit for. He is the low hanging fruit when looking for someone to trade because he doesn't put up big scoring numbers and has a wart or two in his game. But he does some things very well and one of those things is in short supply on the Hawks and that is stand in front of the net and take the goalie's eyes away. He stands there and takes the cross checks to the back and he's pretty darn good at deflecting/tipping shots and tapping in rebounds.

I'm not against replacing Anisimov but I don't see it as a requirement either. Any 3C that is better than Anisimov isn't going to save much or any salary cap space. He is a place holder until the Hawks have a prospect on his ELC ready to replace him in either 2020/21 or after Anisimov's contract runs out heading into the 2021/22 season.

- EbonyRaptor

Good summary of what Anisimov brings and the value he brings. Yes, not a requirement to retain him if a better option is attainable but he's a contributor more than he is a liability to the Blackhawks.
breadbag
Location: Edmonton, AB
Joined: 11.30.2015

Apr 15 @ 1:02 PM ET
That is true, and that's why I qualified my statement by saying "if he makes the team". If he doesn't then I wouldn't be surprised to see AA stick around.
- DarthKane


My bad. I'm not running on enough sleep today and I am too on edge about expectations on our theoretical draft picks. I really do hope we hit it out of the park with the draft. I'm not the guy who analyzes or puts too much thought into the picks.

I like the direction we are heading though as a team. The Hawks could be in much worse shape right now if the moves this season played out differently.
Elbows15
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I was going to do the math on this but I don't think it will help., IL
Joined: 08.04.2013

Apr 15 @ 1:02 PM ET
My fear with Perlini is the Hawks move him and he goes to a team where a coach is able to get his ear and get him to play to his potential. We saw a few games what he can be, a big, fast, confident forwrd with a big shot and quick release. I really want to see Colliton work with him to try to motivate him and define a role for him.
- paulr

I think that is exactly what JC has done with him. His team mates, Kunitz especially, were in his ear this season. How many times does a coach have to sit you before you get it?

I have said this before. His problem is he stops moving his feet and glides all over the ice. If its noticeable to us watching on TV, it must be a huge red flag on the coach's video. JC seems to be good at communicating to the players and I would venture to guess, his expectations have been given to Perlini multiple times.

At some point, the player has to take ownership of his motivations.
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