Trevor Shackles: Cost Per Pointcast Ep. 51: Not a Stellar Draft for the Senators The Senators left lots of value on the board at the 2019 NHL draft

I’m a big fan of the Søgaard pick, however the rest is meh. Not a fan of the Finn D in round 1.

And I’m a life long UND Sioux fan, but Pinto was a reach at 32. Especially with Kaliyev, Lavoie, and Puistola on the board still. Seems Dorion wants all UND kids so they’re “friends” like Norris and Tkachuk.

Ottawa scouting staff seems to relish searching out the diamond in the rough.

It means a lot when a guy drops in the rankings on actual draft day. A consensus takes shape within the pro scouting community. If multiple teams pass on a prospect it says something substanial. So, for example, if a guy you might have taken at 19 is still available at 32, upwards of 12 teams have confirmed your evaluation of that player.

Newsmedia and other commentators will second guess every pick because a top name still remains on the board. On draft day, commentators do not want to ask the simple question, why teams are passing on this kid?

The easy pick on draft day is to take the guy with the reputation. Scouts earn their money when they go beyond and pluck out the guy that has not earned the headlines.

Hardest thing for amateurs to understand is that scouts evaluate how much more is left on a kid's projected improvement arc. Nial Yakupov was the best player in his draft...but we now know there was nothing left in terms of potential for improvement.

Scouts look at the results in an upside down manner when a kid does poorly on the fitness tests at the combine. They reason, if that is what he did on the ice at a poor fitness level, imagine where he will be when we develop his fitness by 25%.

I thought the drafting of Tkachuk last year was a wasted opportunity. So, much more skill was available at #4. Most of the commentators hinted at similar opinions. Yet all the scouts (except for Montreal) thought Tkachuk was an exceptional prospect despite his mediocre numbers at BU.

Amateurs need to start their assessment of draft day by repeating:

We don't know what we don't know.

We don't know what the pro and amateur scouts know.

Character, both on and off the ice, is a huge factor."

Trajectory is an important element in player evaluation. The pace of a players improvement arc is important. Shane Pinto was not even able to make a top team in his age group when he played minor hockey in the NY city area.

He was drafted #330 overall by Lincoln Stars in the 2017 USHL Entry Draft

Going into the NHL draft ISS Hockey ranked him at #50 on their prospect list
(#106 by Future Considerations),(#44 by Hockeyprospect.com),(#105 by McKeen's Hockey),(#45 by TSN/McKenzie),(#28 of N.A. skaters by NHL Central Scouting). He is now a top recruit at North Dakota and the first pick in the second round by the Ottawa Senators.

He is a rocket rising up the ranks. We will know early into the Fighting Sioux' season if it is just hype or an emerging talent.

Last year I was not happy with the Tkachuk pick. I wondered why they used a 1st round pick for Bernard-Docker when he was ranked well below other players. But if you read a more recent assessment of that pick it looks very good and you get a feel for what Ottawa wants, especially when it comes to character.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/...docker-defying-odds-ncaa/

I’m not gna pretend I knew about the prospects in this years draft because I didn’t. Lassi seems like an ok first round pick based on our hole on right d and the thought he may have been taken by another team before the sens got to their 2nd rounder doesn’t bother me, even if he was projected to go later.

The Sogaard pick seemed like a bit of a reach and a head scratcher based on our crease prospects (and how Dorion has boosted gustavsson) but again I don’t know anything about these guys. He better work on that 5 hole though because that’ll be a huge issue.

I’m more looking forward to seeing how Dorion utilizes his cap space.

I’m also looking forward to the REAL draft next year.

So off topic, but does Alfi get elected into the HOF tomorrow?

I say yes!! How many 6th round picks have done and accomplished what he did in his career.

Ottawa scouting staff seems to relish searching out the diamond in the rough.

It means a lot when a guy drops in the rankings on actual draft day. A consensus takes shape within the pro scouting community. If multiple teams pass on a prospect it says something substanial. So, for example, if a guy you might have taken at 19 is still available at 32, upwards of 12 teams have confirmed your evaluation of that player.
- spatso

This is categorically untrue. Teams can only pick one player, so the fact that 12 teams passed on Kaliyev does not mean that he was not a player worth taking at 19, it only means that everyone one of those teams had at least one player ranked higher than Kaliyev.

The fact that both Kaliyev and Lavoie were drafted *immediately* after the picks used by the Senators on Pinto and Sogaard is far more indicative of those player's perceived value.

The unquestionable weak point of the Senators is a complete lack of highly skilled, game breaking forwards up front beyond Tkachuk and passing on opportunities to draft the likes of Kaliyev, Brink and Lavoie to add more "safe" character picks like Shane Pinto or defensive and goaltending prospects like Thomsson and Sogaard (when we already have Chabot, Brannstrom, JBD, Wolanin, Tychonik on defense and three young goalies with potential in Higberg, Gustavsson and Daccord) is a huge missed opportunity.

This is what our future depth chart could have looked like after the draft:

Tkachuk - Norris - Kaliyev
Brink - Brown - Batherson
Formenton - White - Lavoie
Abramov - Chlapik - Balcers
Veronneau - Davidsson

Chabot - JBD
Brannstrom - Demelo
Wolanin - Jaros
Lajoie - Tychonik

Hogberg
Gustavsson
Daccord

This is categorically untrue. Teams can only pick one player, so the fact that 12 teams passed on Kaliyev does not mean that he was not a player worth taking at 19, it only means that everyone one of those teams had at least one player ranked higher than Kaliyev.

The fact that both Kaliyev and Lavoie were drafted *immediately* after the picks used by the Senators on Pinto and Sogaard is far more indicative of those player's perceived value.

The unquestionable weak point of the Senators is a complete lack of highly skilled, game breaking forwards up front beyond Tkachuk and passing on opportunities to draft the likes of Kaliyev, Brink and Lavoie to add more "safe" character picks like Shane Pinto or defensive and goaltending prospects like Thomsson and Sogaard (when we already have Chabot, Brannstrom, JBD, Wolanin, Tychonik on defense and three young goalies with potential in Higberg, Gustavsson and Daccord) is a huge missed opportunity.

This is what our future depth chart could have looked like after the draft:

Tkachuk - Norris - Kaliyev
Brink - Brown - Batherson
Formenton - White - Lavoie
Abramov - Chlapik - Balcers
Veronneau - Davidsson

Chabot - JBD
Brannstrom - Demelo
Wolanin - Jaros
Lajoie - Tychonik

Hogberg
Gustavsson
Daccord
- ATrainTwentyFour

Looks great as a theoretical construct of a future line up. Can they play D?

I have not looked into this draft at all so can’t really comment on the players taken, but I am surprised not more forwards were taking considering the lack of elite talent we have in the system. Granted, elite prospects aren’t readily available after the first few picks. It’s more of a crapshoot after that.

I do like adding some goalies in the system. I don’t mind adding more defensive depth, particularly on the right side. I am just still unsure the teams plan amongst forwards. While there are bodies there, the ceilings do not appear to be that high. What forward in the current system has the ability to be a point per game player? While Tkachuk is a fan favourite, I am not sure he has the natural skill set to be a point per game player.

I have not looked into this draft at all so can’t really comment on the players taken, but I am surprised not more forwards were taking considering the lack of elite talent we have in the system. Granted, elite prospects aren’t readily available after the first few picks. It’s more of a crapshoot after that.

I do like adding some goalies in the system. I don’t mind adding more defensive depth, particularly on the right side. I am just still unsure the teams plan amongst forwards. While there are bodies there, the ceilings do not appear to be that high. What forward in the current system has the ability to be a point per game player? While Tkachuk is a fan favourite, I am not sure he has the natural skill set to be a point per game player.
- Gord_Wilson_2.0

I could be wrong, but I have to think the plan is to solidify from the net out this year, with a plan and f loading up on skilled forwards next year (when they’ll have more high end picks). After the top 5-6 forwards in this draft, there was a real lack of high end elite potential in the forward group.

I’d rather take a flyer on a guy who could be a top 4 dman, rather than a forward who likely projects as a 3rd or 4th line forward

Looks great as a theoretical construct of a future line up. Can they play D?
- spatso

It's alot easier to add defensively sound players through other means (trade, free agency or coaching) then adding game-breaking forwards.

The draft should be a vehicle for adding elite talent for free, not stocking up on run of the mill middle roster players.

This team places too much emphasis on character and not enough on skill and find itself continuously drafting mediocre players that are "safer" early on (like Andreas Englund in 2014 or Shane Bowers in 2017).

This team is lucky to have hit on later picks, because between 2010 and 2017 our best 2nd or 3rd round pick is probably Shane Prince or Marcus Hogberg (though Formenton might finally develop into an actually steady NHLer).

If it was not for the likes of Stone (6th round in 2010), Pageau and Dzingle (4th and 7th round in 2011) Wolanin and Jaros (4th and 5th in 2015), Lajoie (4th in 2016) and Batherson (4th in 2017), otherwise we would have a similar reputation to Edmonton of bein unable to draft past the first round.

I could be wrong, but I have to think the plan is to solidify from the net out this year, with a plan and f loading up on skilled forwards next year (when they’ll have more high end picks). After the top 5-6 forwards in this draft, there was a real lack of high end elite potential in the forward group.

I’d rather take a flyer on a guy who could be a top 4 dman, rather than a forward who likely projects as a 3rd or 4th line forward
- sensarmy_11

Ya. I don’t disagree with that ideology. Can only wait and see, I guess. Defensemen generally take longer to develop as well, so get a head start there, then start to build up front.

I’ve said it before, this year is a write off, so it doesn’t really matter. Complaining for the sake of complaining.

I am disappointed Ceci wasn’t moved. Still can happen, but I just have the feel they will lock him up for the rebuild years to get an NHL body in there.

The fact that both Kaliyev and Lavoie were drafted *immediately* after the picks used by the Senators on Pinto and Sogaard is far more indicative of those player's perceived value.
- ATrainTwentyFour

Sorry, you mean *immediately* after both Kaliyev and Lavoie fell like wet bricks out of the 1st round, along with Brink? Scratch the surface, and you'll find that all 3 of those players had identified concerns around both their skating and consistency. When you're a team that's rather obviously drafting for speed and character, those are both significant barriers.

Ultimately, players who fall in the draft generally do so for a reason. If your scouting staff is excited about the pick in spite of that reason, then go ahead. The Senators scouts clearly weren't okay with that, and we'll see in a couple of years' time whether they made the right call.

Sorry, you mean *immediately* after both Kaliyev and Lavoie fell like wet bricks out of the 1st round, along with Brink? Scratch the surface, and you'll find that all 3 of those players had identified concerns around both their skating and consistency. When you're a team that's rather obviously drafting for speed and character, those are both significant barriers.
- khawk

I guess that must mean that the Senators scouting staff is infinitely smarter than L.A.'s, Philadelphia's and Edmonton's (OK, that last one is a bad example because they are in fact smarter than the Oilers staff), since they saw through the shiny skill and knew that those three couldn't cut it.

The fact of the matter is that these are 17 and 18 year old teenagers. Issues like "character" and "consistency" can be taught to immature teenagers if they are surrounded by a solid support system. These are lessons that young men continue to develop well into their early to mid 20s. The skill those players have cannot be taught this late, they either have it or they don't.

As for skating, while none of them could be identified as the best skaters of the draft, their skating is perfectly doof enough to be an NHL player. Even if it needed work, this is also a skill that can be developed. Just look at Mark Stone, he was a terrible skater and fell to the 6th round in his drat year, but he worked on his skating and is now a bonafide top winger in the NHL.

I guess that must mean that the Senators scouting staff is infinitely smarter than L.A.'s, Philadelphia's and Edmonton's (OK, that last one is a bad example because they are in fact smarter than the Oilers staff), since they saw through the shiny skill and knew that those three couldn't cut it.
- ATrainTwentyFour

No, it just means the Senators scouting staff had a different opinion. Much like the ~1/3 of other teams in the NHL who passed on those 3 players in the latter half of the 1st round, despite many pundits suggesting they should have been off the board before the 2nd round even started. Pretending that the Senators were the only team passing on these players is simply not accurate.

Plus, I'm sorry but the Kings have been one of the worst drafting teams in the NHL over the past few years (seriously... go look at their drafts from 2011-2018), and the Flyers just showed the limitations of their wisdom by signing Kevin Hayes to a $7Mx7yr contract despite him only having 1 season where he scored >20G or had >50Pts.

And as for your skating comment, sure Mark Stone is an example of a very good player who worked on his skating successfully... but why do you think Stone was a 6th round pick in the first place? It's because for every Stone you could probably name five or ten others who couldn't overcome that limitation, and were quite justifiably passed over at the draft. And the collective wisdom of NHL scouts certainly reflected those concerns by picking 177 players ahead of him in what was objectively a weak draft.