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Forums :: Blog World :: Michael Pachla: The many layers of the Alexander Nylander for Henri Jokiharju trade
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sbroads24
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We are in 30th place. It's 2017 , NY
Joined: 02.12.2012

Jul 11 @ 12:19 PM ET
poopty
- TheSabresTaco

Yeah, screws up for me every time
TheSabresTaco
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I would pick Heiskanen and Provorov over Dahlin. But still not in my top 10. - MaximusAurelius, NY
Joined: 05.05.2011

Jul 11 @ 12:23 PM ET
Yeah, screws up for me every time
- sbroads24


I'm not on my desktop right now.. try to shorten the link on bitly or something
sbroads24
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We are in 30th place. It's 2017 , NY
Joined: 02.12.2012

Jul 11 @ 12:24 PM ET
Penalties drawn last three years

Skinner - 75
Laine -32

SDSabre
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 02.05.2014

Jul 11 @ 12:24 PM ET
What about the year before that, and the year before that?

This was Laines worst season as a pro and he easily put up 50 points.

But nah, 21 year olds with the ability to score 40 goals grow on tress.

- ImThatGuy


Hate when people say that. What does that mean, easily put up 50. So could he easily put up 60. What about moderately challengingly put 70. Challengingly 80? I think he was trying his ass off and put up 50. That's not good enough for 9+M. Sorry it isn't. If he's that player forward, Skinner is better. If he's the 44 goal scoring machine, he's better. End of story really. Skinner got 9M because he had a career year in his contract year. You don't have your worst season then command dollar contract. It's like this "Patrik, you didn't have a great year, we need to get you back to where you were" "Ok, but while we're working on my game, I'd like a 10M long term contract." Doesn't happen.
SDSabre
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 02.05.2014

Jul 11 @ 12:25 PM ET
Penalties drawn last three years

Skinner - 75
Laine -32

- sbroads24


But do special teams matter?

And does Laine snarl at his opposition after drawing such penalties? That is worth an extra M.
jcragcrumple
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Reluctant bridge jumper; 6th round OHL draft pick, YT
Joined: 04.04.2016

Jul 11 @ 12:30 PM ET
Hate when people say that. What does that mean, easily put up 50. So could he easily put up 60. What about moderately challengingly put 70. Challengingly 80? I think he was trying his ass off and put up 50. That's not good enough for 9+M. Sorry it isn't. If he's that player forward, Skinner is better. If he's the 44 goal scoring machine, he's better. End of story really. Skinner got 9M because he had a career year in his contract year. You don't have your worst season then command dollar contract. It's like this "Patrik, you didn't have a great year, we need to get you back to where you were" "Ok, but while we're working on my game, I'd like a 10M long term contract." Doesn't happen.
- SDSabre


His first 2 years he shot 17% and 18% and this year he shot 12% which explains the goal decline

His first 2 years would make him the current NHL shooting percentage leader.

Currently Stamkos leads the league in career % at 16.9

It's fair to ask whether his first two years sh% is sustainable, just as it's fair to say it about Skinner this year
Slump Buster
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I design websites! PM me, NY
Joined: 10.24.2006

Jul 11 @ 12:32 PM ET
I didn’t realize I was talking to Schoop and Jeremy White today on this board.

Advanced stats are the only thing that matters, I need nothing else to show who is better.


Fack, where is Bingo when I need him.

- ImThatGuy


Torts, is that you? There isn't a grit-and-snarl-ometer, if that's what you're wondering
SDSabre
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 02.05.2014

Jul 11 @ 12:33 PM ET
His first 2 years he shot 17% and 18% and this year he shot 12% which explains the goal decline

His first 2 years would make him the current NHL shooting percentage leader.

Currently Stamkos leads the league in career % at 16.9

It's fair to ask whether his first two years sh% is sustainable, just as it's fair to say it about Skinner this year

- jcragcrumple


Agreed. He has a lethal shot. My point is if you have a career year, you get paid. If you have a moderate season, you don't get to command as much dollars. Reality, he shot 12% and still had 30 goals. He's a great player, but because of everything he brings, I don't want another 10M strapped up in him. If we do, I'll cheer just as much as everyone when he rifles one in. Just from my perspective.
ImThatGuy
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I would bet my life savings that Cody Franson would outplay Ristolainen if given 20 minutes per nigh, GA
Joined: 11.04.2010

Jul 11 @ 12:36 PM ET
Torts, is that you? There isn't a grit-and-snarl-ometer, if that's what you're wondering
- Slump Buster


These same charts show that IafAllo and Joel Armia are better than Anze Kopitar.

They show Jake Gardiner is better than some of the top d-men in the league.

Advanced stats are deadly if not used in context.
jcragcrumple
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Reluctant bridge jumper; 6th round OHL draft pick, YT
Joined: 04.04.2016

Jul 11 @ 12:38 PM ET
Agreed. He has a lethal shot. My point is if you have a career year, you get paid. If you have a moderate season, you don't get to command as much dollars. Reality, he shot 12% and still had 30 goals. He's a great player, but because of everything he brings, I don't want another 10M strapped up in him. If we do, I'll cheer just as much as everyone when he rifles one in. Just from my perspective.
- SDSabre


I would want him for an AAV he wouldn't want, so I guess I don't want him
ImThatGuy
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I would bet my life savings that Cody Franson would outplay Ristolainen if given 20 minutes per nigh, GA
Joined: 11.04.2010

Jul 11 @ 12:40 PM ET
I would want him for an AAV he wouldn't want, so I guess I don't want him
- jcragcrumple


I’m not trying to say Jeff Skinner is a bad player, but he has had some god awful years.

If he has one of those during this contract you are looking at an 18-20 goal 9mm player.

Skinner is on average an 11% shooter and takes 271 shots a year. That’s 30 goals a year. If he maintains his career average.
homiedclown
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I think we will be good, in 2037, FL
Joined: 02.24.2008

Jul 11 @ 12:46 PM ET
nobody commented on this

how many times did Skinner get demoted to the third line for lack of effort?


laine has several times
hehateme
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 04.11.2017

Jul 11 @ 12:46 PM ET
I’m not trying to say Jeff Skinner is a bad player, but he has had some god awful years.

If he has one of those during this contract you are looking at an 18-20 goal 9mm player.

Skinner is on average an 11% shooter and takes 271 shots a year. That’s 30 goals a year. If he maintains his career average.

- ImThatGuy


On Jacks Wing, should be pretty easy to maintain I would think... That is only 3.3 shot attempts per game. I would like to see him take 5-7 shots a game. then he is a 45-55 goal guy. I can see that for sure.

Lilroot9
Buffalo Sabres
Location: NY
Joined: 06.18.2012

Jul 11 @ 12:47 PM ET
Eyetesthockey on twitter mentioned looking at Stefan Noesen. Anyone care about him? And does Dzingel want a bunch of money or could be he a fit too? Just want to move a bunch of bottom 6 guys soon. Just need turn over. I would rather pay one of those guys $1.6m then Girgs.
ImThatGuy
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I would bet my life savings that Cody Franson would outplay Ristolainen if given 20 minutes per nigh, GA
Joined: 11.04.2010

Jul 11 @ 12:47 PM ET
nobody commented on this

how many times did Skinner get demoted to the third line for lack of effort?


laine has several times

- homiedclown


Skinner rarely played on the top line in Carolina. He was demoted several times.

I distinctly remember bingo coming in here and explains that.
jcragcrumple
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Reluctant bridge jumper; 6th round OHL draft pick, YT
Joined: 04.04.2016

Jul 11 @ 12:48 PM ET
I’m not trying to say Jeff Skinner is a bad player, but he has had some god awful years.

If he has one of those during this contract you are looking at an 18-20 goal 9mm player.

Skinner is on average an 11% shooter and takes 271 shots a year. That’s 30 goals a year. If he maintains his career average.

- ImThatGuy


Yeah, he's due for some regression, but Eichel is also the best center he's ever played with. I'd expect him to be a 35 goal guy for us.

If we go by his first two years, Laine would need to be the best shooter (literally) in the NHL to maintain those goal totals at the 17% and 18% numbers.

Maybe he is the best shooter. It's a gamble
Slump Buster
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I design websites! PM me, NY
Joined: 10.24.2006

Jul 11 @ 12:48 PM ET
These same charts show that IafAllo and Joel Armia are better than Anze Kopitar.

They show Jake Gardiner is better than some of the top d-men in the league.

Advanced stats are deadly if not used in context.

- ImThatGuy


Sure.... so what's your point? You can put the various stats together and put a good view of a player and you can cherry-pick through to get a biased view of a player. That's no reason to trash analytics.
ImThatGuy
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I would bet my life savings that Cody Franson would outplay Ristolainen if given 20 minutes per nigh, GA
Joined: 11.04.2010

Jul 11 @ 12:49 PM ET


On Jacks Wing, should be pretty easy to maintain I would think... That is only 3.3 shot attempts per game. I would like to see him take 5-7 shots a game. then he is a 45-55 goal guy. I can see that for sure.

- hehateme


Sure, I can see that, but for arguments sake Skinner had a chance to play with Eric Stall for much of his time in Carolina.

He has some god awful seasons there.
sbroads24
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We are in 30th place. It's 2017 , NY
Joined: 02.12.2012

Jul 11 @ 12:49 PM ET
These same charts show that IafAllo and Joel Armia are better than Anze Kopitar.

They show Jake Gardiner is better than some of the top d-men in the league.

Advanced stats are deadly if not used in context.

- ImThatGuy

But basic counting stats aren’t? Got it
ImThatGuy
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I would bet my life savings that Cody Franson would outplay Ristolainen if given 20 minutes per nigh, GA
Joined: 11.04.2010

Jul 11 @ 12:50 PM ET
Sure.... so what's your point? You can put the various stats together and put a good view of a player and you can cherry-pick through to get a biased view of a player. That's no reason to trash analytics.
- Slump Buster

I’m not trashing analytics. they are a very useful tool but guys like Mike schoop and Jeremy white will use only analytics decide if a player is good or not and who he is better than. posting a single chart that is very flawed does not tell me who the better player is
ImThatGuy
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I would bet my life savings that Cody Franson would outplay Ristolainen if given 20 minutes per nigh, GA
Joined: 11.04.2010

Jul 11 @ 12:52 PM ET
But basic counting stats aren’t? Got it
- sbroads24


Normally they are a good indication of just how good a player is.


Guys who score more points generally are the better players in the league.

sbroads24
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We are in 30th place. It's 2017 , NY
Joined: 02.12.2012

Jul 11 @ 12:55 PM ET
I’m not trashing analytics. they are a very useful tool but guys like Mike schoop and Jeremy white will use only analytics decide if a player is good or not and who he is better than. posting a single chart that is very flawed does not tell me who the better player is
- ImThatGuy

Here’s your issue. It isn’t a single chart.

Laine is terrible in every aspect besides goals, and at 5 on 5 he scored goals like a 2nd liner.

I’d love to have him. But he’s incredibly bad in a lot of areas as of today
jochfr
Buffalo Sabres
Location: It's totally menstrual , TN
Joined: 07.11.2009

Jul 11 @ 12:55 PM ET
Yikes
sbroads24
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We are in 30th place. It's 2017 , NY
Joined: 02.12.2012

Jul 11 @ 12:57 PM ET
Normally they are a good indication of just how good a player is.


Guys who score more points generally are the better players in the league.

- ImThatGuy

Generally, but not always, and they are more of an indication of opportunities than whether they are better than someone.

Statistics have evolved to show points are one of 10 things you should look at.

ImThatGuy
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I would bet my life savings that Cody Franson would outplay Ristolainen if given 20 minutes per nigh, GA
Joined: 11.04.2010

Jul 11 @ 12:57 PM ET
Yeah, he's due for some regression, but Eichel is also the best center he's ever played with. I'd expect him to be a 35 goal guy for us.

If we go by his first two years, Laine would need to be the best shooter (literally) in the NHL to maintain those goal totals at the 17% and 18% numbers.

Maybe he is the best shooter. It's a gamble

- jcragcrumple


I feel like I am trashing skinner, but that is the last thing I want to do. I was one who wanted him signed.

Skinner has had multiple sub 20 goal years.

Skinners contract is a huge risk for a 28 year old.

Yes he is playing with Eichel.

Laine should progress.

Skinners regression could start happening as 29 as stats show that’s when most players start to see it happen.
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