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Forums :: Blog World :: Michael Pachla: The many layers of the Alexander Nylander for Henri Jokiharju trade
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Slump Buster
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I design websites! PM me, NY
Joined: 10.24.2006

Jul 11 @ 12:58 PM ET
I’m not trashing analytics. they are a very useful tool but guys like Mike schoop and Jeremy white will use only analytics decide if a player is good or not and who he is better than. posting a single chart that is very flawed does not tell me who the better player is
- ImThatGuy


Well of course not - should they go and make complete bios on every player before posting? They make no bones about the fact that they are relying on the work that others are doing. It isn't difficult to see the good players from the ones that are not based on metrics.

It's kind of funny that people get so freaked about this kind of stuff, as if seeing a guy play a few times is going to make you feel better because he passes the eye/grit/snarl test.
ImThatGuy
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I would bet my life savings that Cody Franson would outplay Ristolainen if given 20 minutes per nigh, GA
Joined: 11.04.2010

Jul 11 @ 1:00 PM ET
Which contract is a bigger gamble.

Skinner 8 years at 9 mil - age 28.
Laine 8 years at 9 mil - age 21.
jcragcrumple
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Reluctant bridge jumper; 6th round OHL draft pick, YT
Joined: 04.04.2016

Jul 11 @ 1:00 PM ET
I feel like I am trashing skinner, but that is the last thing I want to do. I was one who wanted him signed.

Skinner has had multiple sub 20 goal years.

Skinners contract is a huge risk for a 28 year old.

Yes he is playing with Eichel.

Laine should progress.

Skinners regression could start happening as 29 as stats show that’s when most players start to see it happen.

- ImThatGuy


I think it's riskier to give Laine $10m and hope he shoots at a stratospheric 17-18% which is what he needs to do to get back to where we was before this year
hehateme
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 04.11.2017

Jul 11 @ 1:02 PM ET
Which contract is a bigger gamble.

Skinner 8 years at 9 mil - age 28.
Laine 8 years at 9 mil - age 21.

- ImThatGuy


for me its easy, Skinner is the bigger risk.

ImThatGuy
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I would bet my life savings that Cody Franson would outplay Ristolainen if given 20 minutes per nigh, GA
Joined: 11.04.2010

Jul 11 @ 1:02 PM ET
Well of course not - should they go and make complete bios on every player before posting? They make no bones about the fact that they are relying on the work that others are doing. It isn't difficult to see the good players from the ones that are not based on metrics.

It's kind of funny that people get so freaked about this kind of stuff, as if seeing a guy play a few times is going to make you feel better because he passes the eye/grit/snarl test.

- Slump Buster


I’m not freaked out at all. It just annoys me that people run to this data a post it to show how good a player is/is and ignore everything else.
Slump Buster
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I design websites! PM me, NY
Joined: 10.24.2006

Jul 11 @ 1:03 PM ET
I’m not freaked out at all. It just annoys me that people run to this data a post it to show how good a player is/is and ignore everything else.
- ImThatGuy


So what specifically are they ignoring?
sbroads24
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We are in 30th place. It's 2017 , NY
Joined: 02.12.2012

Jul 11 @ 1:04 PM ET
Skinner is 27 for all of next year btw

And I didn’t need advanced stats for that
hehateme
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 04.11.2017

Jul 11 @ 1:04 PM ET
So what specifically are they ignoring?
- Slump Buster


Their eyeballs..

homiedclown
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I think we will be good, in 2037, FL
Joined: 02.24.2008

Jul 11 @ 1:05 PM ET
Normally they are a good indication of just how good a player is.


Guys who score more points generally are the better players in the league.

- ImThatGuy

ImThatGuy
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I would bet my life savings that Cody Franson would outplay Ristolainen if given 20 minutes per nigh, GA
Joined: 11.04.2010

Jul 11 @ 1:06 PM ET
So what specifically are they ignoring?
- Slump Buster


Laine is 21, had his worst year as a pro and still managed to score 30 goals.

Laine is almost a ppg player in the playoffs.

Skinner has never been to the playoffs.

Skinner is exiting the prime of his career after next year. Laine is just about to enter his.

Laine will most likely progress while Skinner will most likely regress.
ImThatGuy
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I would bet my life savings that Cody Franson would outplay Ristolainen if given 20 minutes per nigh, GA
Joined: 11.04.2010

Jul 11 @ 1:07 PM ET
Skinner is 27 for all of next year btw

And I didn’t need advanced stats for that

- sbroads24


I may have this direct quote wrong but

“players after 24 don’t get better. Player regress around age 29.”

Discuss
sbroads24
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We are in 30th place. It's 2017 , NY
Joined: 02.12.2012

Jul 11 @ 1:08 PM ET
Laine is 21, had his worst year as a pro and still managed to score 30 goals.

Laine is almost a ppg player in the playoffs.

Skinner has never been to the playoffs.

Skinner is exiting the prime of his career after next year. Laine is just about to enter his.

Laine will most likely progress while Skinner will most likely regress.

- ImThatGuy

“Skinner has multiple sub 20 goal years”

One was 13 goals in 42 games which is a 25 goal average after an injury

The other was 18 in 77 games which is right at 20

But it’s us who “ignores” stuff
jcragcrumple
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Reluctant bridge jumper; 6th round OHL draft pick, YT
Joined: 04.04.2016

Jul 11 @ 1:09 PM ET
I may have this direct quote wrong but

“players after 24 don’t get better. Player regress around age 29.”

Discuss

- ImThatGuy


You're making assumptions about Laine's progression that are the same as Skinner's regression

Also no one has addressed Laine's insane sh% yet
ImThatGuy
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I would bet my life savings that Cody Franson would outplay Ristolainen if given 20 minutes per nigh, GA
Joined: 11.04.2010

Jul 11 @ 1:11 PM ET
“Skinner has multiple sub 20 goal years”

One was 13 goals in 42 games which is a 25 goal average after an injury

The other was 18 in 77 games which is right at 20

But it’s us who “ignores” stuff

- sbroads24


Nope those are just stats. He was hurt

If Skinner goes out and gets 20 points in 10 games this year and gets hurt for the rest of the year am I allowed to say he was on pace for the best season ever because he was on pace for 164 points.
sbroads24
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We are in 30th place. It's 2017 , NY
Joined: 02.12.2012

Jul 11 @ 1:12 PM ET
Nope those are just stats. He was hurt

If Skinner goes out and gets 20 points in 10 games this year and gets hurt for the rest of the year am I allowed to say he was on pace for the best season ever because he was on pace for 164 points.

- ImThatGuy

You are, and it would be just as disingenuous as saying he has multiple sub 20 goal years
TheSabresTaco
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I would pick Heiskanen and Provorov over Dahlin. But still not in my top 10. - MaximusAurelius, NY
Joined: 05.05.2011

Jul 11 @ 1:15 PM ET
Neither is Skinner.

Eichel did nothing to deserve 10 mil but you paid based on potential.

You are doing the exact same for Laine.

- ImThatGuy


Eichel=Laine

Interesting
Powerslave
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Beyotch-trill
Joined: 02.10.2011

Jul 11 @ 1:16 PM ET
👀👀👀
Sabretooth9
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 05.24.2019

Jul 11 @ 1:17 PM ET
Laine is 21, had his worst year as a pro and still managed to score 30 goals.

Laine is almost a ppg player in the playoffs.

Skinner has never been to the playoffs.

Skinner is exiting the prime of his career after next year. Laine is just about to enter his.

Laine will most likely progress while Skinner will most likely regress.

- ImThatGuy


I think the issue is .... if you pay laine and then need to find money for Reinhart.

You are going to have a top heavy contract team like the leafs will have once Marner is signed

Potentially .... Eichel skinner Reinhart laine all making 9 (or close to that give or take) each. Then fill in the roster with rookies and with cheap contracts.

If skinner is getting 9, no reason why laine shouldn’t get the same.

If we get laine Fans also don’t want to sacrifice Sam via trade or not signing him.

If you move Risto + insert cap dump for laine. Then that is interesting. You break even cap wise.

It’s a tough decision either way.
TheSabresTaco
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I would pick Heiskanen and Provorov over Dahlin. But still not in my top 10. - MaximusAurelius, NY
Joined: 05.05.2011

Jul 11 @ 1:18 PM ET
These same charts show that IafAllo and Joel Armia are better than Anze Kopitar.

They show Jake Gardiner is better than some of the top d-men in the league.

Advanced stats are deadly if not used in context.

- ImThatGuy


All charts are small pieces of the puzzle. Eye test is extremely important. One of the best analytics is, how does the team perform with said player on the ice. If it's bad, you look at his linemates. If all, or most, are better without said player, you know who the weak link is.

Laine is Ristolainen and Ristolainen is Laine.
buffalofan19
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Wonderful things can happen when you sow seeds of distrust in a garden full of (bum)holes
Joined: 07.01.2007

Jul 11 @ 1:18 PM ET
nobody commented on this

how many times did Skinner get demoted to the third line for lack of effort?


laine has several times

- homiedclown


That's not necessarily a good metric. There's a "moron factor" with coaches that's missing in that analysis.
jcragcrumple
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Reluctant bridge jumper; 6th round OHL draft pick, YT
Joined: 04.04.2016

Jul 11 @ 1:18 PM ET
👀👀👀
- Powerslave



Don't sleep on Riley Sheahan
hehateme
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 04.11.2017

Jul 11 @ 1:18 PM ET
Eichel=Laine

Interesting

- TheSabresTaco


More like,

Laine=Andreychuck

Look at their stats very similar.
Slump Buster
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I design websites! PM me, NY
Joined: 10.24.2006

Jul 11 @ 1:19 PM ET
Their eyeballs..
- hehateme


Thanks for the contribution
ImThatGuy
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I would bet my life savings that Cody Franson would outplay Ristolainen if given 20 minutes per nigh, GA
Joined: 11.04.2010

Jul 11 @ 1:19 PM ET
Eichel=Laine

Interesting

- TheSabresTaco


Yes.
1000000000000000000000101010-0-0-0-0-0-0-0010101010-0010-0-010100100-0-010-0-“-0101010101010-0-0-0-010100101010-0-0-00%
jcragcrumple
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Reluctant bridge jumper; 6th round OHL draft pick, YT
Joined: 04.04.2016

Jul 11 @ 1:19 PM ET
All charts are small pieces of the puzzle. Eye test is extremely important. One of the best analytics is, how does the team perform with said player on the ice. If it's bad, you look at his linemates. If all, or most, are better without said player, you know who the weak link is.

Laine is Ristolainen and Ristolainen is Laine
.

- TheSabresTaco



ristoLAINEn

coincidence?
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