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Forums :: Blog World :: Trevor Shackles: Senators Mailbag Part 1
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Trevor Shackles
Ottawa Senators
Location: Richmond, BC
Joined: 05.18.2018

Jul 23 @ 2:57 AM ET
Trevor Shackles: Senators Mailbag Part 1 Answering your questions! Part 1
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Jul 23 @ 7:33 AM ET
Great questions, good responses.

I think the question on rebuild (3 year) needs to be qualified in terms of how you measure success. If success means being a serious Stanley Cup contender, I don't think so. If it means staying close and fighting for a playoff spot...perhaps.

If it means a young team playing exciting, entertaining hockey...I think this is the realistic goal.

I would be happy to see the Sens draft a top 5 pick for the next two years. Could even warm up to the idea of going the full three years with a top 5 pick.

I think rebuild success is totally dependent on the sale of the team. We are now in a holding pattern where there are no rumours, no talk and no speculation. One morning we will wake up to be told the team has finally been sold. It is not an easy sale but you can be certain that it will happen before the Sens return to post season play.
poopstash
Los Angeles Kings
Joined: 03.21.2015

Jul 23 @ 8:12 AM ET
Great questions, good responses.

I think the question on rebuild (3 year) needs to be qualified in terms of how you measure success. If success means being a serious Stanley Cup contender, I don't think so. If it means staying close and fighting for a playoff spot...perhaps.

If it means a young team playing exciting, entertaining hockey...I think this is the realistic goal.

I would be happy to see the Sens draft a top 5 pick for the next two years. Could even warm up to the idea of going the full three years with a top 5 pick.

I think rebuild success is totally dependent on the sale of the team. We are now in a holding pattern where there are no rumours, no talk and no speculation. One morning we will wake up to be told the team has finally been sold. It is not an easy sale but you can be certain that it will happen before the Sens return to post season play.

- spatso


https://youtu.be/gAdTsAKvVTU?t=9
AlexBoucher
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 02.19.2017

Jul 23 @ 10:09 AM ET
Great questions, good responses.

I think the question on rebuild (3 year) needs to be qualified in terms of how you measure success. If success means being a serious Stanley Cup contender, I don't think so. If it means staying close and fighting for a playoff spot...perhaps.

If it means a young team playing exciting, entertaining hockey...I think this is the realistic goal.

I would be happy to see the Sens draft a top 5 pick for the next two years. Could even warm up to the idea of going the full three years with a top 5 pick.

I think rebuild success is totally dependent on the sale of the team. We are now in a holding pattern where there are no rumours, no talk and no speculation. One morning we will wake up to be told the team has finally been sold. It is not an easy sale but you can be certain that it will happen before the Sens return to post season play.

- spatso


Good post- I believe we need to be able to attract free agents to compete. Not going to happen with penny pinching Melnyk who doesn't want to pay market.

We've seen this with most of our last transactions- can't bee good for our reputation around the league
Sens Writer
Location: Vancouver, BC
Joined: 08.19.2013

Jul 23 @ 2:06 PM ET
Good post- I believe we need to be able to attract free agents to compete. Not going to happen with penny pinching Melnyk who doesn't want to pay market.
- AlexBoucher

Really? When I look at the recent Cup winners, I see virtually nothing but teams built primarily through the draft and trades.

Chicago - Kane, Toews, Seabrook, Keith, Hjalmarsson, Sharp, Crawford, Saad
Los Angeles - Kopitar, Doughty, Quick, Carter, Richards, Muzzin, Williams
Pittsburgh - Crosby, Malkin, Kessel, Letang, Hornqvist, Murray, Guentzel
St. Louis - Tarasenko, O'Reilly, Pietrangelo, Schwartz, Binnington, Schenn, Parayko
Washington - Ovechkin, Backstrom, Kuznetsov, Carlson, Holtby, Oshie, Wilson

Quite frankly, the only free agents that were really integral to the success of any of those teams were Hossa and maybe Perron... and Hossa's signing was more than a decade ago. I'd actually argue that free agency has increasingly proven to be a red herring, where teams tend to make their biggest strategic mistakes.

What's far more important to a team reaching the highest level is their ability to retain key talent throughout an extended competitive window. We'll have a good indication of where the team stands with this when the next contracts for Chabot and Tkachuk are negotiated.
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Jul 23 @ 3:19 PM ET
Really? When I look at the recent Cup winners, I see virtually nothing but teams built primarily through the draft and trades.

Chicago - Kane, Toews, Seabrook, Keith, Hjalmarsson, Sharp, Crawford, Saad
Los Angeles - Kopitar, Doughty, Quick, Carter, Richards, Muzzin, Williams
Pittsburgh - Crosby, Malkin, Kessel, Letang, Hornqvist, Murray, Guentzel
St. Louis - Tarasenko, O'Reilly, Pietrangelo, Schwartz, Binnington, Schenn, Parayko
Washington - Ovechkin, Backstrom, Kuznetsov, Carlson, Holtby, Oshie, Wilson

Quite frankly, the only free agents that were really integral to the success of any of those teams were Hossa and maybe Perron... and Hossa's signing was more than a decade ago. I'd actually argue that free agency has increasingly proven to be a red herring, where teams tend to make their biggest strategic mistakes.

What's far more important to a team reaching the highest level is their ability to retain key talent throughout an extended competitive window. We'll have a good indication of where the team stands with this when the next contracts for Chabot and Tkachuk are negotiated.

- khawk


I think you are right on target. Successful franchises build from within and develop a core group of high end talent. They add the complementary veteran pieces when they are ready to take a deep run at winning it all.

The Senator franchise has never been more valuable than it is today. Everything that needs to be done, has been done. Costs have been cut to the bone. The potential for revenue growth has never been better and the opportunity for new ventures and development is likely better than any other NHL market given the public sentiment to move the franchise to a downtown location on prime real estate.

I do not believe that Melnyk has the cash reserves to finance the signing of Chabot, Tkachuck and the other talented prospects as they come off of their entry level deals.

I was certain that Karlsson, Duchene, Stone and Dzingle would all be traded. My certainty of belief assumed that the books have been sanitized to the point that makes them incredibly attractive to a new ownership group.

Nobody, including his NHL partners, supports Melnyk continuing as owner of the Sens. As long as the ownership situation remains fragile, the Sens will continue to stumble. I believe that there was a previous sale agreement involving Cirque where Melnyk pulled the plug. There was the agreement for the LeBretton development that Melnyk collapsed. Strike 3 is coming on the next pitch.
VT001
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: ON
Joined: 06.29.2016

Jul 24 @ 12:12 AM ET

I do not believe that Melnyk has the cash reserves to finance the signing of Chabot, Tkachuck and the other talented prospects as they come off of their entry level deals.

- spatso


If either Chabot and Tkachuck sign an offer sheet like Aho did with the Canadians which would pay 20 million or more within 12 months, do you think Melnyk matches that offer sheet?
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Jul 24 @ 7:33 AM ET
If either Chabot and Tkachuck sign an offer sheet like Aho did with the Canadians which would pay 20 million or more within 12 months, do you think Melnyk matches that offer sheet?
- VT001


The cost of matching is essentially an interest premium added on top of the direct salary cost driven by the bonus structure.

For example, a $25m bonus structure paid out over 13 months at the beginning of the contract adds up to a notional $12m in finance charges over 8 years for a guy (Melnyk) who needs to borrow the money on the open market.

On the other hand, it is very different for a wealthy ownership group (Winnipeg has the wealthiest individual owner). The wealthy ownership will advance the funds to cover the bonus costs that they will earn back as an interest return on a shareholder loan. This is exactly what happened when Philadelphia made the huge offer sheet to Shea Webber. One owner stepped up and covered the cost of the bonus changing the financial structure (for the better) of the Predators (I think the loan was done under the umbrella of a change in equity structure of the Preds, but it had exactly the same meaning).

I believe an impending offer sheet (Chabot) is the best thing going for the Sens right now. Guaranteed, Bettman and Melnyk's ownership partners are far more worried about this situation than he is.

Everybody wants him out and nobody should discount the importance of the fact that Melnyk's weakness as an owner reflects directly on Bettman and all the other owners.
SensFan25
Ottawa Senators
Location: ON
Joined: 08.24.2006

Jul 24 @ 9:26 AM ET
If either Chabot and Tkachuck sign an offer sheet like Aho did with the Canadians which would pay 20 million or more within 12 months, do you think Melnyk matches that offer sheet?
- VT001

Maybe...
If the offer goes significantly above fair value to $9.5M-$10M per season, then I doubt there is a match. If it is fair value but front loaded like the Aho contract, I'd put the odds at 50-50.
Sens Writer
Location: Vancouver, BC
Joined: 08.19.2013

Jul 24 @ 9:38 AM ET
If either Chabot and Tkachuck sign an offer sheet like Aho did with the Canadians which would pay 20 million or more within 12 months, do you think Melnyk matches that offer sheet?
- VT001

I find it hard to believe that an $8.54M/yr offer sheet would be enough for them to walk away from Chabot, especially with nothing but a 1st/2nd/3rd to show for it. Not only are they already at the cap floor, but are set to free up more than $14.5M at year-end with the expiring Boedker, Hainsey, Anderson, and Condon contracts.

Gord_Wilson_2.0
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 10.11.2011

Jul 24 @ 3:56 PM ET
Melnyk has never really had issues signing RFA’s. You could make the argument for Zibanejad, but I feel Brassard was an ok return for where the franchise was at that point. Sens have to reach the cap floor. However, with more and more RFA’s look to be taking signing bonus contracts rather than your traditional bridge contract going into free agency. The 8 mill cap hit is fine. The 21 mill in season 1 of the contract, Melnyk can’t do. If that comes into play, this organization is screwed for years to come.
Sens Writer
Location: Vancouver, BC
Joined: 08.19.2013

Jul 24 @ 7:02 PM ET
Melnyk has never really had issues signing RFA’s. You could make the argument for Zibanejad, but I feel Brassard was an ok return for where the franchise was at that point. Sens have to reach the cap floor. However, with more and more RFA’s look to be taking signing bonus contracts rather than your traditional bridge contract going into free agency. The 8 mill cap hit is fine. The 21 mill in season 1 of the contract, Melnyk can’t do. If that comes into play, this organization is screwed for years to come.
- Gord_Wilson_2.0

The whole question also presumes that players will be just going out and signing offer sheets, as opposed to negotiating with the team. It's not like offer sheets are happening in abundance, and if anything the Hurricane's response to the Aho signing was further evidence that this isn't likely to become a viable route to obtain one of the league's best young players. Even if it stings like hell financially, you can't put blood in the water when it comes to your top future talent.