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Forums :: Blog World :: Michael Pachla: How difficult will it be for the Buffalo Sabres to make the playoffs?
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Swedish_Jesus
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 07.02.2019

Aug 15 @ 11:56 AM ET
Jeff Skinner is 21st in the league in Goals Above Replacement. 7th for wingers. This is a combination stat that grades your overall performance in how much you help your team while you're on the ice, in any situation.

During even strength, he is +11.8. This means while he's on the ice for even strength, he is contributing almost 12 goals (and shot generation) more than a replacement player. This is higher than Claude Giroux, Nikita Kucherov, Conner McDavid, Braydon Point and Patrice Bergeron. All elite players.

He is drawing 4.4 penalties above replacement, not much lower than players like McDavid, MacKinnon, Gaudreau and Barkov. Again, elite players.

His PP and PK are relatively pedestrian, as the eye test and simple stats show. However, since typically 80+ % of the game is played at full strength, you should be paying the players that first exceed at even strength (Skinner is an elite even strength player, by definition of collective opinion of the other players in elite category combined with being tops, statistically in the league) instead of powerplay or penalty kill specialists, which are typically below replacement level players.

- TheSabresTaco


He has a career high of 63 points. Assists do matter. All of the other aforementioned players in your above post have all put up consistently high point totals over an extended period of time.
jcragcrumple
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Reluctant bridge jumper; 6th round OHL draft pick, YT
Joined: 04.04.2016

Aug 15 @ 11:56 AM ET
Yea I remember the all the media attention he got last summer as an impending UFA. I remember when half the league lined up to acquire him and we out bid 80% of the league since we gave up an elite prospect in Cliff Pu.

Carolina missed him dearly this past season right ?

- Swedish_Jesus


The logical extension of your point would be that the Canes would have been the same or worse with Skinner on the team.

Do you believe that?
RhinoFan
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Visionville
Joined: 10.12.2015

Aug 15 @ 11:57 AM ET
This is where your argument loses all credibility. Not any person in the NHL or anyone with any hockey knowledge would claim that he has elite defensive ability. Unless you meant he has the ability, but chooses not to use it. He had less than 3 minutes of PK time. He started over 70% of the time in the Ozone. His last season on a defensively stacked Carolina team he was a -27. There is a reason he is not seen as a top 20 winger in the league, and that is because he is a one dimensional player.
- adambuffalo


This isn't how any of this works. This is all silly.

I was the loudest one about not giving him 9 or 10. At the same point, he is not one dimensional unless there are only 2 dimensions, offense and defense...in which case, you are right he is a forward.
TheSabresTaco
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I would pick Heiskanen and Provorov over Dahlin. But still not in my top 10. - MaximusAurelius, NY
Joined: 05.05.2011

Aug 15 @ 12:00 PM ET
He has a career high of 63 points. Assists do matter. All of the other aforementioned players in your above post have all put up consistently high point totals over an extended period of time.
- Swedish_Jesus


And? He's outperformed elite players for being a positive impact for his team. Does that make him not elite, or elite?
Swedish_Jesus
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 07.02.2019

Aug 15 @ 12:01 PM ET
The logical extension of your point would be that the Canes would have been the same or worse with Skinner on the team.

Do you believe that?

- jcragcrumple


I believe Rod Brind’Amour and the management group there wanted him gone due to the fact he doesn’t come back past his own blue line but yea he can deposit a feed from Eichel so all is well.

I don’t expect to hear a negative peep out of this board over the next 8 seasons regarding his play and eventual cap hit that’s all I know.
Stripes77
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Where ever Matt Ellis allows me to be, NY
Joined: 07.30.2012

Aug 15 @ 12:01 PM ET
Yea I remember the all the media attention he got last summer as an impending UFA. I remember when half the league lined up to acquire him and we out bid 80% of the league since we gave up an elite prospect in Cliff Pu.

Carolina missed him dearly this past season right ?

- Swedish_Jesus



Holy hell not this argument again

It's not like they didn't improve their goaltending, didn't trade away other players for much better players and you know that Aho guy really sucked this year for them and didn't put up 20 more points than his previous best?

I am sure they would have liked Skinner's goal scoring in the playoffs when they scored 5 goals in 4 games against the Bruins and got swept
TheSabresTaco
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I would pick Heiskanen and Provorov over Dahlin. But still not in my top 10. - MaximusAurelius, NY
Joined: 05.05.2011

Aug 15 @ 12:01 PM ET
This isn't how any of this works. This is all silly.

I was the loudest one about not giving him 9 or 10. At the same point, he is not one dimensional unless there are only 2 dimensions, offense and defense...in which case, you are right he is a forward.

- RhinoFan


I like how Flacco gave his statement an emphatic "bingo" and you gave the exact opposite reaction.
TheSabresTaco
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I would pick Heiskanen and Provorov over Dahlin. But still not in my top 10. - MaximusAurelius, NY
Joined: 05.05.2011

Aug 15 @ 12:02 PM ET
I believe Rod Brind’Amour and the management group there wanted him gone due to the fact he doesn’t come back past his own blue line but yea he can deposit a feed from Eichel so all is well.

I don’t expect to hear a negative peep out of this board over the next 8 seasons regarding his play and eventual cap hit that’s all I know.

- Swedish_Jesus


the straw grasping here is McDonald's.

I'm lovin' it.

I honestly want you to define "elite NHL player"
TheSabresTaco
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I would pick Heiskanen and Provorov over Dahlin. But still not in my top 10. - MaximusAurelius, NY
Joined: 05.05.2011

Aug 15 @ 12:05 PM ET
Holy hell not this argument again

It's not like they didn't improve their goaltending, didn't trade away other players for much better players and you know that Aho guy really sucked this year for them and didn't put up 20 more points than his previous best?

I am sure they would have liked Skinner's goal scoring in the playoffs when they scored 5 goals in 4 games against the Bruins and got swept

- Stripes77


I'm going to dive into two points in a second. And this first one will lead to the 2nd one.

is it POSSIBLE that coaching helped improve a vastly under-performing defense?
TheSabresTaco
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I would pick Heiskanen and Provorov over Dahlin. But still not in my top 10. - MaximusAurelius, NY
Joined: 05.05.2011

Aug 15 @ 12:06 PM ET
The Carolina Hurricanes experienced a playoff drought because of, and only because of, Jeff Skinner.
jcragcrumple
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Reluctant bridge jumper; 6th round OHL draft pick, YT
Joined: 04.04.2016

Aug 15 @ 12:08 PM ET
I believe Rod Brind’Amour and the management group there wanted him gone due to the fact he doesn’t come back past his own blue line but yea he can deposit a feed from Eichel so all is well.

I don’t expect to hear a negative peep out of this board over the next 8 seasons regarding his play and eventual cap hit that’s all I know.

- Swedish_Jesus


I think some of this saltiness is because you would have preferred to tank again instead of signing him
Stripes77
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Where ever Matt Ellis allows me to be, NY
Joined: 07.30.2012

Aug 15 @ 12:09 PM ET
I'm going to dive into two points in a second. And this first one will lead to the 2nd one.

is it POSSIBLE that coaching helped improve a vastly under-performing defense?

- TheSabresTaco



I mean hell their team save percentage in 2017 was sub .900
Last season is was league average

That alone wins like 10 more games
adambuffalo
Buffalo Sabres
Location: United States, NY
Joined: 01.30.2007

Aug 15 @ 12:11 PM ET
He's an offensive player that doesn't suck defensively

He is paid to score goals and not be a liability in the D zone.

His all around game isn't awful, he does a lot to change the out comes of games by doing things like takeaways in the offensive zone and drawing penalties.

- Stripes77

He does not appear to be a liability in the Dzone because he avoids it as much as possible.

He does get a lot of takeaways in the Ozone. Eichel had 20 more giveaways than Skinner had takeaways. Maybe someone needs to tell Jack (and Dahlin) to quit giving the puck away.
TheSabresTaco
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I would pick Heiskanen and Provorov over Dahlin. But still not in my top 10. - MaximusAurelius, NY
Joined: 05.05.2011

Aug 15 @ 12:12 PM ET
I mean hell their team save percentage in 2017 was sub .900
Last season is was league average

That alone wins like 10 more games

- Stripes77


That doesn't even include "faster", "modern" and "smarter" play from their Dmen. Like the Sabres are attempting to do, their engagement to the forwards to help them score more and faster has helped them greatly improve, and that's a result of coaching.
TheSabresTaco
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I would pick Heiskanen and Provorov over Dahlin. But still not in my top 10. - MaximusAurelius, NY
Joined: 05.05.2011

Aug 15 @ 12:14 PM ET
He does not appear to be a liability in the Dzone because he avoids it as much as possible.

He does get a lot of takeaways in the Ozone. Eichel had 20 more giveaways than Skinner had takeaways. Maybe someone needs to tell Jack (and Dahlin) to quit giving the puck away.

- adambuffalo


If he avoids the Dzone after an offensive zone draw, he's leaving his team mates out to dry. His even strength goals above rating suggests the opposite of your statement, otherwise his usefulness, if you will, would be closer to replacement level than of the elite players. Here's a guy who not only provides more 5v5 usefulness than 98% of the league, he also is a 60 point player. Players below him are 70, 80, 90 point players.

Think about that. He literally can't be one dimensional.
Bufsaints8
Season Ticket Holder
Buffalo Sabres
Location: TN
Joined: 07.20.2012

Aug 15 @ 12:16 PM ET
Yea I remember the all the media attention he got last summer as an impending UFA. I remember when half the league lined up to acquire him and we out bid 80% of the league since we gave up an elite prospect in Cliff Pu.

Carolina missed him dearly this past season right ?

- Swedish_Jesus


It's hard to say whether they did or they didn't. Yes, they made the playoffs and had a successful season, however, they did not win the cup. New coach, smart trades, very solid D corps. Could he have put them over the top against Boston? Maybe not, but they would have had a better chance. There are too many factors that go into answering this question.
TheSabresTaco
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I would pick Heiskanen and Provorov over Dahlin. But still not in my top 10. - MaximusAurelius, NY
Joined: 05.05.2011

Aug 15 @ 12:18 PM ET
He does not appear to be a liability in the Dzone because he avoids it as much as possible.

He does get a lot of takeaways in the Ozone. Eichel had 20 more giveaways than Skinner had takeaways. Maybe someone needs to tell Jack (and Dahlin) to quit giving the puck away.

- adambuffalo


Leon Draisaitl had 116 giveaways.

Johnny Gaudreau had 124.

Dylan Larkin had 100.

Miro Heiskanen had 96.

Nikita Kucherov and Conner McDavid had 89.

Jack Eichel had 76.

GA/TA arguments don't tell a lick of the story.

Giveaways can't be weighted as much as takeaways, unless you're so far away from the mean, which most if not all elite players are not, that you negatively affect your team so much that you're essentially demoted.
Stripes77
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Where ever Matt Ellis allows me to be, NY
Joined: 07.30.2012

Aug 15 @ 12:19 PM ET
He does not appear to be a liability in the Dzone because he avoids it as much as possible.

He does get a lot of takeaways in the Ozone. Eichel had 20 more giveaways than Skinner had takeaways. Maybe someone needs to tell Jack (and Dahlin) to quit giving the puck away.

- adambuffalo



Heaven forbid he plays more in the offensive zone because you know he is one of the few players on the team that can you know score goals?
RhinoFan
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Visionville
Joined: 10.12.2015

Aug 15 @ 12:19 PM ET
I like how Flacco gave his statement an emphatic "bingo" and you gave the exact opposite reaction.
- TheSabresTaco


And there can only be one highlander...
TheSabresTaco
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I would pick Heiskanen and Provorov over Dahlin. But still not in my top 10. - MaximusAurelius, NY
Joined: 05.05.2011

Aug 15 @ 12:20 PM ET
It's hard to say whether they did or they didn't. Yes, they made the playoffs and had a successful season, however, they did not win the cup. New coach, smart trades, very solid D corps. Could he have put them over the top against Boston? Maybe not, but they would have had a better chance. There are too many factors that go into answering this question.
- Bufsaints8


It's closer to coincidence than being able to prove whether he'd help or be a detriment to their playoff chances. Frankly. it's a ridiculous topic.

The Dow dropped the other day, probably because I walked my dog walking north instead of the usual south.
TheSabresTaco
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I would pick Heiskanen and Provorov over Dahlin. But still not in my top 10. - MaximusAurelius, NY
Joined: 05.05.2011

Aug 15 @ 12:21 PM ET
And there can only be one highlander...
- RhinoFan


jcragcrumple
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Reluctant bridge jumper; 6th round OHL draft pick, YT
Joined: 04.04.2016

Aug 15 @ 12:21 PM ET
This isn't how any of this works. This is all silly.

I was the loudest one about not giving him 9 or 10. At the same point, he is not one dimensional unless there are only 2 dimensions, offense and defense...in which case, you are right he is a forward.

- RhinoFan


People are confusing 1-dimensional for 2-way forward for sure

He's Marchand-lite with his ability to get under players' skin, he's fast, he scores goals and he draws penalties. There are some dimensions.

So he's a pesky, fast, penalty drawing, goal-scoring one dimensional machine I guess
RhinoFan
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Visionville
Joined: 10.12.2015

Aug 15 @ 12:21 PM ET
Leon Draisaitl had 116 giveaways.

Johnny Gaudreau had 124.

Dylan Larkin had 100.

Miro Heiskanen had 96.

Nikita Kucherov and Conner McDavid had 89.

Jack Eichel had 76.

GA/TA arguments don't tell a lick of the story.

- TheSabresTaco


It's almost, almost...as if there is a direct correlation between carrying the puck frequently and the amount of giveaways you amass.
RhinoFan
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Visionville
Joined: 10.12.2015

Aug 15 @ 12:22 PM ET

- TheSabresTaco


Saucy.
buffalofan19
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Wonderful things can happen when you sow seeds of distrust in a garden full of (bum)holes
Joined: 07.01.2007

Aug 15 @ 12:22 PM ET
Leon Draisaitl had 116 giveaways.

Johnny Gaudreau had 124.

Dylan Larkin had 100.

Miro Heiskanen had 96.

Nikita Kucherov and Conner McDavid had 89.

Jack Eichel had 76.

GA/TA arguments don't tell a lick of the story.

- TheSabresTaco


The giveaway/takeaway argument, to me, is a lot like the hits category. Analytics have started to figure out that if you have a large number of hits, it means you don't have the puck a lot, which usually means you aren't a good team. Conversely, if you have a lot of giveaways, it means you do have the puck a lot, which is good. That's not to say that giveaways themselves are good. They're obviously not, but the increased possession generally outweighs the negative effects that giveaways have.
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