not bad

i think Batherson will be higher in the lineup. personally, i'd swap Bath and Ryan

i also think there is almost zero chance that bransstrom makes the team over wolanin and jaros.....that kid will make the NHL when there's a top 4 spot available to him (so next year when Hainsey is gone)
- sensarmy_11

I'd like to start Batherson on the second line. Maybe even with Logan Brown depending on how his camp is.

Analytics are important, but equally important is setting up the salary cap structure of your team effectively. Having UFA status for all of Karlsson, Stone, Duchene, Brassard, and Dzingel converge on a single off-season created an almost inevitable point of crisis, especially when the three best players involved wound up with 7/8-year extensions with their respective new teams. Individually, a contract like that which costs $8M-$11M/yr and extends well into the players mid-30's might be an acceptable risk, however 3 of them concurrently is not.

Using the Hurricanes again as an example, if you look at their salary structure you see a core of solid players signed to responsible contracts, with very few implicating beyond the 30+ age range. In terms of age, the only notable exceptions are Jordan Staal and Jake Gardiner, who combined make a very cap-friendly $10M/yr. And if you look at the distribution of their current 16 UFA-expiring contracts worth $2.0M/yr or more in terms of player age, cost, and term, you see a very responsible situation with a lot of flexibility to account for their quality young players, like Svechnikov, Necas, Fleury, Bean, and Suzuki.

Contract Expiry
2020 - Faulk, Haula, VanRiemsdyk
2021 - Hamilton, Dzingel, McGinn, Martinook, Reimer, Mrazek
2022 - Niederreiter
2023 - Staal, Gardiner
2024 - Aho, Pesce, Teravainen
2025 - Slavin

Contract Amount
$9.0M+ - None
$6.0M-$8.9M - Aho, Staal
$5.0M-$5.9M - Teravainen, Niederreiter, Slavin, Hamilton
$4.0M-$4.9M - Pesce, Gardiner, Faulk
$3.0M-$3.9M - Dzingel, Reimer, Mrazek
$2.0M-$2.9M - Haula, VanRiemsdyk, McGinn, Martinook

Player Age
22-23 - Aho
24-25 - Teravainen, Pesce, Slavin, McGinn
26-27 - Hamilton, Niederreiter, Dzingel, Faulk, Mrazek
28-29 - Gardiner, Haula, Martinook, VanRiemsdyk
30-31 - Staal, Reimer
32+ - None

No player over the age of 31, nobody making more than $8.5M/yr (and even that was the result of a RFA offer sheet), high-value UFA signings (Dzingel, Gardiner), and no insurmountable points of crisis for at least half a decade. Carolina may not be a Stanley Cup quality team, but they are certainly built to be a consistently competitive one for the next several years. It will be interesting to see if Ottawa can mirror some of that structure, as they begin to sign their young core players like Chabot, Tkachuk, and White to new deals.

Analytics are important, but equally important is setting up the salary cap structure of your team effectively. Having UFA status for all of Karlsson, Stone, Duchene, Brassard, and Dzingel converge on a single off-season created an almost inevitable point of crisis, especially when the three best players involved wound up with 7/8-year extensions with their respective new teams. Individually, a contract like that which costs $8M-$11M/yr and extends well into the players mid-30's might be an acceptable risk, however 3 of them concurrently is not.

Using the Hurricanes again as an example, if you look at their salary structure you see a core of solid players signed to responsible contracts, with very few implicating beyond the 30+ age range. In terms of age, the only notable exceptions are Jordan Staal and Jake Gardiner, who combined make a very cap-friendly $10M/yr. And if you look at the distribution of their current 16 UFA-expiring contracts in terms of player age, cost, and term, you see a very responsible situation with a lot of flexibility to account for the ability to incorporate their quality young players, like Svechnikov, Necas, Fleury, Bean, and Suzuki.

Contract Expiry
2020 - Faulk, Haula, VanRiemsdyk
2021 - Hamilton, Dzingel, McGinn, Martinook, Reimer, Mrazek
2022 - Niederreiter
2023 - Staal, Gardiner
2024 - Aho, Pesce, Teravainen
2025 - Slavin

Contract Amount
$9.0M+ - None
$6.0M-$8.9M - Aho, Staal
$5.0M-$5.9M - Teravainen, Niederreiter, Slavin, Hamilton
$4.0M-$4.9M - Pesce, Gardiner, Faulk
$3.0M-$3.9M - Dzingel, Reimer, Mrazek
$2.0M-$2.9M - Haula, VanRiemsdyk, McGinn, Martinook

Player Age
22-23 - Aho
24-25 - Teravainen, Pesce, Slavin, McGinn
26-27 - Hamilton, Niederreiter, Dzingel, Faulk, Mrazek
28-29 - Gardiner, Haula, Martinook, VanRiemsdyk
30-31 - Staal, Reimer
32+ - None

No player over the age of 31, nobody making more than $8.5M/yr (and even that was the result of a RFA offer sheet), high-value UFA signings (Dzingel, Gardiner), and no insurmountable points of crisis for at least half a decade. Carolina may not be a Stanley Cup quality team, but they are certainly built to be a consistently competitive one for the next several years. It will be interesting to see if Ottawa can mirror some of that structure, as they begin to sign their young core players like Chabot, Tkachuk, and White to new deals.
- khawk

Love this analysis. Thanks for sharing.

Analytics are important, but equally important is setting up the salary cap structure of your team effectively. Having UFA status for all of Karlsson, Stone, Duchene, Brassard, and Dzingel converge on a single off-season created an almost inevitable point of crisis, especially when the three best players involved wound up with 7/8-year extensions with their respective new teams. Individually, a contract like that which costs $8M-$11M/yr and extends well into the players mid-30's might be an acceptable risk, however 3 of them concurrently is not.

Using the Hurricanes again as an example, if you look at their salary structure you see a core of solid players signed to responsible contracts, with very few implicating beyond the 30+ age range. In terms of age, the only notable exceptions are Jordan Staal and Jake Gardiner, who combined make a very cap-friendly $10M/yr. And if you look at the distribution of their current 16 UFA-expiring contracts worth $2.0M/yr or more in terms of player age, cost, and term, you see a very responsible situation with a lot of flexibility to account for their quality young players, like Svechnikov, Necas, Fleury, Bean, and Suzuki.

Contract Expiry
2020 - Faulk, Haula, VanRiemsdyk
2021 - Hamilton, Dzingel, McGinn, Martinook, Reimer, Mrazek
2022 - Niederreiter
2023 - Staal, Gardiner
2024 - Aho, Pesce, Teravainen
2025 - Slavin

Contract Amount
$9.0M+ - None
$6.0M-$8.9M - Aho, Staal
$5.0M-$5.9M - Teravainen, Niederreiter, Slavin, Hamilton
$4.0M-$4.9M - Pesce, Gardiner, Faulk
$3.0M-$3.9M - Dzingel, Reimer, Mrazek
$2.0M-$2.9M - Haula, VanRiemsdyk, McGinn, Martinook

Player Age
22-23 - Aho
24-25 - Teravainen, Pesce, Slavin, McGinn
26-27 - Hamilton, Niederreiter, Dzingel, Faulk, Mrazek
28-29 - Gardiner, Haula, Martinook, VanRiemsdyk
30-31 - Staal, Reimer
32+ - None

No player over the age of 31, nobody making more than $8.5M/yr (and even that was the result of a RFA offer sheet), high-value UFA signings (Dzingel, Gardiner), and no insurmountable points of crisis for at least half a decade. Carolina may not be a Stanley Cup quality team, but they are certainly built to be a consistently competitive one for the next several years. It will be interesting to see if Ottawa can mirror some of that structure, as they begin to sign their young core players like Chabot, Tkachuk, and White to new deals.
- khawk

Strong signals coming out around the edges of the business and sales part of the Sens that the Chabot deal is done. The announcement is being planned out to correspond with big push for the sale of ticket packages. Don't know if it is true but it certainly makes sense.

Strong signals coming out around the edges of the business and sales part of the Sens that the Chabot deal is done. The announcement is being planned out to correspond with big push for the sale of ticket packages. Don't know if it is true but it certainly makes sense.
- spatso

Will simply signing 1 guy give fans enough faith to buy ticket packages or season tix at this point? Dont question the players ability at all. But has management done too little too late? Most teams have sold out their packages by now no?

Will simply signing 1 guy give fans enough faith to buy ticket packages or season tix at this point? Dont question the players ability at all. But has management done too little too late? Most teams have sold out their packages by now no?
- wreckage

No but it s a good start with White and now Chabot if is real. Maybe that give a little push for ticket sale

Will simply signing 1 guy give fans enough faith to buy ticket packages or season tix at this point? Dont question the players ability at all. But has management done too little too late? Most teams have sold out their packages by now no?
- wreckage

Exactly!

But, fans are desperate for some positive signals. Apparently they got a nice ticket sale pop on the signing of Colin White and are wanting to let it play out and build a larger promotional campaign around the signing of Chabot.

It is a very strange dynamic. The more angry fans are with Melnyk, the more affectionate they are for the team and the individual players. Just about everyone who has been boycotting games (including me) are looking for reasons to justify their desire to return.

Some of us will settle for Melnyk just keeping quiet and staying away. He has pretty much remained silent since LeBretton was blown up. Let's see what happens over the next month.

Analytics are important, but equally important is setting up the salary cap structure of your team effectively. Having UFA status for all of Karlsson, Stone, Duchene, Brassard, and Dzingel converge on a single off-season created an almost inevitable point of crisis, especially when the three best players involved wound up with 7/8-year extensions with their respective new teams. Individually, a contract like that which costs $8M-$11M/yr and extends well into the players mid-30's might be an acceptable risk, however 3 of them concurrently is not.

Using the Hurricanes again as an example, if you look at their salary structure you see a core of solid players signed to responsible contracts, with very few implicating beyond the 30+ age range. In terms of age, the only notable exceptions are Jordan Staal and Jake Gardiner, who combined make a very cap-friendly $10M/yr. And if you look at the distribution of their current 16 UFA-expiring contracts worth $2.0M/yr or more in terms of player age, cost, and term, you see a very responsible situation with a lot of flexibility to account for their quality young players, like Svechnikov, Necas, Fleury, Bean, and Suzuki.

Contract Expiry
2020 - Faulk, Haula, VanRiemsdyk
2021 - Hamilton, Dzingel, McGinn, Martinook, Reimer, Mrazek
2022 - Niederreiter
2023 - Staal, Gardiner
2024 - Aho, Pesce, Teravainen
2025 - Slavin

Contract Amount
$9.0M+ - None
$6.0M-$8.9M - Aho, Staal
$5.0M-$5.9M - Teravainen, Niederreiter, Slavin, Hamilton
$4.0M-$4.9M - Pesce, Gardiner, Faulk
$3.0M-$3.9M - Dzingel, Reimer, Mrazek
$2.0M-$2.9M - Haula, VanRiemsdyk, McGinn, Martinook

Player Age
22-23 - Aho
24-25 - Teravainen, Pesce, Slavin, McGinn
26-27 - Hamilton, Niederreiter, Dzingel, Faulk, Mrazek
28-29 - Gardiner, Haula, Martinook, VanRiemsdyk
30-31 - Staal, Reimer
32+ - None

No player over the age of 31, nobody making more than $8.5M/yr (and even that was the result of a RFA offer sheet), high-value UFA signings (Dzingel, Gardiner), and no insurmountable points of crisis for at least half a decade. Carolina may not be a Stanley Cup quality team, but they are certainly built to be a consistently competitive one for the next several years. It will be interesting to see if Ottawa can mirror some of that structure, as they begin to sign their young core players like Chabot, Tkachuk, and White to new deals.
- khawk

It's taken some work, but a big part of that involves trading away guys before they hit UFA status too, and not paying UFA contracts for anyone that's not going to be a bargain.

Skinner was a year from UFA status and was looking at a big payday, so they traded him because they knew he was going to get more than he was worth.

Same thing is going on with Faulk now.

It's taken some work, but a big part of that involves trading away guys before they hit UFA status too, and not paying UFA contracts for anyone that's not going to be a bargain.

Skinner was a year from UFA status and was looking at a big payday, so they traded him because they knew he was going to get more than he was worth.

Same thing is going on with Faulk now.
- BINGO!

Yes! Absolutely! Only way to go!

Agents have created a false market for mid range players. More teams need to sign 2nd and 3rd line players on the understanding that they are going to trade them or let them walk at the end of their deal.

Pay guys big bucks up to age 27/28. Do not give long term retirement contracts to any players in the second half of their career. Good business to sign journeymen and veteran players to short term deals once they hit age 30. Dollars are never as important as term for older players.

This is not a unique perspective. Everybody understands it as the formula originally recommended when the league first adopted the hard cap.

Wonder if Brad Pitts available for gm?

Cant get caught up in money this year. It is a good year to save some$$ but the cash will soon enough have to be there.