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Forums :: Blog World :: James Tanner: Team With Scoring Problems Has Three One-Dimensional Players
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James Tanner
Arizona Coyotes
Joined: 12.21.2013

Sep 10 @ 1:31 PM ET
James Tanner: Team With Scoring Problems Has Three One-Dimensional Players
jcragcrumple
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Reluctant bridge jumper; 6th round OHL draft pick, YT
Joined: 04.04.2016

Sep 10 @ 1:42 PM ET
I do suspect - though I don't know - that goals are so rare that a player could be bad at defense and as long as he's scoring, it's still helpful.


In a sense I think you're right. I think it's easier to attribute a goal-for than a goal-against. It's easier to point to an assist or a goal, and quantify it than to go through a scoring play against and assign blame percentages to the 5-man unit on the ice, unless it's a clear-cut "that was your man and you blew it."

If a team has a 1-dimensional forward, they need cover that deficiency through stronger team defense.

I kind of lost my train of thought. Idk, weird idea, but you might be on to something
matty12345
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 01.11.2007

Sep 10 @ 2:13 PM ET
Plus minus is sometimes a measure of how good you are vs how high in the lineup you play.

Rasmus Ristoleinen is the worst minus going in his career. He isn't the actual worst defenseman, but he might be the worst #1 defenseman playing 25 minutes a night. In this case the stat shows how out of place he is.

Similarly Vanek led the league in Plus minus his second year, because he scored 40 goals and 80+ points on the team's third line. Simply put, he was so by far and away the best third liner in the league. Once Briere and Drury left he became the top line wing for the sabres and was a minus after that, because he was probably a slightly below average first line player.

Kessel, Keller, etc. are all great on a second line, but bad as a first line. Expect them to be minuses. Kessel has been over his career generally thought of as a star who wasn't quite good enough, and the minus bears that out. In short I wouldn't worry that the first line for Arizona is bad defensively, I would worry about the fact that they will score a lot less goals than most first lines they go against, which in turn means they are a liability. BUT if the second and third lines are very deep, then sometimes the guys losing the first line battle are actually enabling the second and third lines to have success.
James Tanner
Arizona Coyotes
Joined: 12.21.2013

Sep 10 @ 2:19 PM ET
Plus minus is sometimes a measure of how good you are vs how high in the lineup you play.

Rasmus Ristoleinen is the worst minus going in his career. He isn't the actual worst defenseman, but he might be the worst #1 defenseman playing 25 minutes a night. In this case the stat shows how out of place he is.

Similarly Vanek led the league in Plus minus his rookie year, because he scored 40 goals and 80+ points on the team's third line. Simply put, he was so by far and away the best third liner in the league. Once Briere and Drury left he became the top line wing for the sabres and was a minus after that, because he was probably a slightly below average first line player.

Kessel, Keller, etc. are all great on a second line, but bad as a first line. Expect them to be minuses. Kessel has been over his career generally thought of as a star who wasn't quite good enough, and the minus bears that out. In short I wouldn't worry that the first line for Arizona is bad defensively, I would worry about the fact that they will score a lot less goals than most first lines they go against, which in turn means they are a liability. BUT if the second and third lines are very deep, then sometimes the guys losing the first line battle are actually enabling the second and third lines to have success.

- matty12345



Kessel is a minus 80 or whatever but hes also played the majority of his career on bad teams or in Pittsburgh sort of a bonus 3rd line sniper.

If he ever gets a season with a couple guys who are elite at driving the play, look out.
ClaudeFather
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: west haven, CT
Joined: 08.14.2015

Sep 10 @ 2:25 PM ET
Kessel is a minus 80 or whatever but hes also played the majority of his career on bad teams or in Pittsburgh sort of a bonus 3rd line sniper.

If he ever gets a season with a couple guys who are elite at driving the play, look out.

- James_Tanner

Look out for what? He just had a 92 and 80 point season. What should we be looking out for? Can't wait to hear this.
leafsfann
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Phoenix, AZ
Joined: 05.11.2014

Sep 10 @ 2:37 PM ET
Look out for what? He just had a 92 and 80 point season. What should we be looking out for? Can't wait to hear this.
- ClaudeFather


Look out for his hot dogs per 60. Nobody else is in that territory
matty12345
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 01.11.2007

Sep 10 @ 2:39 PM ET
Kessel is a minus 80 or whatever but hes also played the majority of his career on bad teams or in Pittsburgh sort of a bonus 3rd line sniper.

If he ever gets a season with a couple guys who are elite at driving the play, look out.

- James_Tanner

Wait whaaat? He's been to the playoffs 7 times. He played almost 50% of last year with Malkin...
Gertner
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 08.04.2017

Sep 10 @ 2:39 PM ET
Remember the time James got owned by Bill Meltzer in his own blog?
matty12345
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 01.11.2007

Sep 10 @ 2:41 PM ET
Remember the time James got owned by Bill Meltzer in his own blog?
- Gertner

I see this referenced all the time. Which blog was it?
ClaudeFather
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: west haven, CT
Joined: 08.14.2015

Sep 10 @ 2:45 PM ET
Wait whaaat? He's been to the playoffs 7 times. He played almost 50% of last year with Malkin...
- matty12345

LOOK OUT
Feds91Stammer
Detroit Red Wings
Location: ALL GMS ARE IDIOTS, SC
Joined: 02.01.2012

Sep 10 @ 3:04 PM ET
Holy (frank) dude. Kessel has a positive 5v5 goal differential for his career and you pull plus minus out of your ass?
James Tanner
Arizona Coyotes
Joined: 12.21.2013

Sep 10 @ 3:26 PM ET
Look out for what? He just had a 92 and 80 point season. What should we be looking out for? Can't wait to hear this.
- ClaudeFather



In those seasons he was giving up a ton of defense against.

Even though Malkin was his main linemate for two years, and even though he racked up a ton of points, the Penguins didn't really kill it when they were on together. Malkin, at least the last two years, hasn't been a great play driver - he was 50% without Kessel one year, and 52% without him another.

They score, but they give back a ton.

Compare to when he plays with Crosby and they were 57% and + 6 5v5 goal differential in 200 minutes.

Or the year before when they were 56%.

My point is that while Kessel will always score, you need someone who dominates possession to get the most out of him. Obviously Crosby is going to make anyone better, but going by our limited sample size, the Penguins really missed out not pairing them together.
James Tanner
Arizona Coyotes
Joined: 12.21.2013

Sep 10 @ 3:26 PM ET
Look out for his hot dogs per 60. Nobody else is in that territory
- leafsfann


Boo! Kessel hotdog jokes are the wazzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzup of NHL comedy.
Blackstrom2
Washington Capitals
Location: richmond, VA
Joined: 10.11.2010

Sep 10 @ 3:46 PM ET
Holy (frank) dude. Kessel has a positive 5v5 goal differential for his career and you pull plus minus out of your ass?
- Feds91Stammer


Not a good look. Just sort of affirms what we all know.
Mordecai
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Sleepwalking
Joined: 08.27.2015

Sep 10 @ 3:56 PM ET
Mastodon

though their newer stuff is pretty lame
matty12345
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 01.11.2007

Sep 10 @ 4:13 PM ET
A few weeks ago, poop for brains claimed that Hextall was a horrible GM and should not be considered for another position. Bill professionally and thoroughly shredded said poop for brains. It was a joy to read. Unfortunately Tansey doubled down on his opinion even though Bill has forgotten more about the sport of Ice Hockey than Lil' Jimmy will ever know.

As I said a few weeks ago there is a difference between ignorant and stupid. JT is obviously the latter.

- Levit8

Hmm, went back to find it and the comment section doesn't load. Skeeeettttcchhy.
Tonybere
New York Rangers
Location: Q: What won’t you tolerate? A: Laziness, ON
Joined: 02.04.2016

Sep 10 @ 4:31 PM ET
In those seasons he was giving up a ton of defense against.

Even though Malkin was his main linemate for two years, and even though he racked up a ton of points, the Penguins didn't really kill it when they were on together. Malkin, at least the last two years, hasn't been a great play driver - he was 50% without Kessel one year, and 52% without him another.

They score, but they give back a ton.

Compare to when he plays with Crosby and they were 57% and + 6 5v5 goal differential in 200 minutes.

Or the year before when they were 56%.

My point is that while Kessel will always score, you need someone who dominates possession to get the most out of him. Obviously Crosby is going to make anyone better, but going by our limited sample size, the Penguins really missed out not pairing them together.

- James_Tanner


Yes, they really missed out.
...wait, on what? They won the (frank)ing Stanley Cup! Exactly how were they misused?
Just when it seems you couldn't possibly understand this game any less...
BestRapperAlive
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: OEL is one of the greatest players of his generation - James Tanner
Joined: 06.21.2012

Sep 10 @ 4:58 PM ET

They won 2 Stanley Cups but...

at the end of the day, all that matters is "do you contribute to a positive shot differential?"

-James Tanner
matty12345
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 01.11.2007

Sep 10 @ 5:07 PM ET
Yes, they really missed out.
...wait, on what? They won the (frank)ing Stanley Cup! Exactly how were they misused?
Just when it seems you couldn't possibly understand this game any less...

- Tonybere



If you win the cup the right way, you get to lift it twice.
GPerogie
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Hightstown, NJ
Joined: 07.13.2010

Sep 10 @ 7:30 PM ET
Without actually looking at advanced metrics however Kessel has quite commonly been put in good position to be a plus player, rarely out for D-Zone starts and to consistantly be a minus is scary, Lots of all around players with a little less offensive output would KILL for his usage, He puts up the PP Points and I love Arizona taking him on to try to help but I dont expect him to be a plus here, Hopefully I'm wrong.
camfor
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Complete mis-use of stats, Is now called the Jimmy "T" special.
Joined: 12.08.2007

Sep 10 @ 8:15 PM ET
I think that, generally speaking, we don't really have a good grasp of how to properly measure players who prevent goals. ---Jimmy Tannsy......



You mean to tell me that all of a sudden you do not think OEL is a top three "D" man in the NHL? And that he isn't still on his way to winning "multiple" Norris trophies?
Come on Jimmy...Tell me you never said this!....Cant wait!
gramps
Location: Chandler, AZ
Joined: 10.10.2006

Sep 10 @ 9:02 PM ET
Hmm, went back to find it and the comment section doesn't load. Skeeeettttcchhy.
- matty12345


Mods locked the thread because of the Jimmy pile on.
j.boyd919
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Tampa, FL
Joined: 06.14.2011

Sep 11 @ 9:59 AM ET
Kessel is a minus 80 or whatever but hes also played the majority of his career on bad teams or in Pittsburgh sort of a bonus 3rd line sniper.

If he ever gets a season with a couple guys who are elite at driving the play, look out.

- James_Tanner


Weird that you pull +/- out of your hat when doing a little research would show that he’s a positive goal guy at 5v5 for his career.

Edit: per NST, out of Kessel’s 12 seasons, 5 have been negative goal differential. The other 7 have been positive.
James Tanner
Arizona Coyotes
Joined: 12.21.2013

Sep 11 @ 10:57 AM ET
Weird that you pull +/- out of your hat when doing a little research would show that he’s a positive goal guy at 5v5 for his career.

Edit: per NST, out of Kessel’s 12 seasons, 5 have been negative goal differential. The other 7 have been positive.

- j.boyd919


Yea I know, but plus minus is more universally relatable and I was trying to make a point about how scoring can outweigh bad defense.
j.boyd919
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Tampa, FL
Joined: 06.14.2011

Sep 11 @ 11:24 AM ET
Yea I know, but plus minus is more universally relatable and I was trying to make a point about how scoring can outweigh bad defense.
- James_Tanner


What better way to make a point than to use more accurate data without arbitrary restrictions? Just because something more relatable doesn’t mean it should be used if it’s less accurate, imo. If anything; that entire premise should be expounded upon and explained why it’s a misconception.

Something like:
“His plus/minus over his career is this... but upon further research his 5v5 goal differential shows this... removing empty netters from the equation which disproportionately skews the data given that most teams throw their most lethal forwards out with the net empty... blah blah blah”
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