Michael Stuart: Dorion's Best Trade: Battle of the Second Round Non-Favorites

Can we take a moment and take a look at the picks and what they've done / where they are:

2009
1st round - Jared Cowen - out of the NHL
2nd round - Robin Lehner - UFA this summer
2nd round - Jacob Silverberg - traded for bobby M-F'in Ryan

2010
1st round - traded for David Runbland (>Turris>Duchene)
6th round - Mark Stone - traded for Erik Brannstrom

2011
1st round - Mika Zibanejad - 41 goals in 57 games this year..for NYR
1st round - Matt Puempel - put on waives, now plays for Grand Rapids
1st round - Stefan Noesen - traded for Bobby Ryan, plays with SJ
2nd round - Shane Prince - (traded for a later pick in 2016)

2012
1st round - Cody Ceci (UFA, doubt he will ever hit

2013
1st round - Curtis Lazar (passed on Anthony Mantha & Shea Theodore)

2014
1st round - traded away for bobby ryan!
2nd round - Andreas Englund (still isn't a stable NHLer)

2015
1st round - Thomas Chabot (great pick ! finally)
1st round - Colin White (TBD; needs to add muscle & get back to 1st year)
2nd round - Gabriel Gagne (failed pick; between Aho & Carlo)
2nd round - Filip Chlapik (TBD)

2016
1st round - Logan Brown (a lot invested in him; needs to have a healthy, BIG year)

2017
1st round - Shane Bowers
2nd round - Alex Formenton (looks good)

2018 - 2019 picks still need time to see. But certainly the periods btw 2009-2014 was a waste when it comes to drafting good talent in the top 2 rounds and holding on to them !!

Can we take a moment and take a look at the picks and what they've done / where they are:

2009
1st round - Jared Cowen - out of the NHL
2nd round - Robin Lehner - UFA this summer
2nd round - Jacob Silverberg - traded for bobby M-F'in Ryan

2010
1st round - traded for David Runbland (>Turris>Duchene)
6th round - Mark Stone - traded for Erik Brannstrom

2011
1st round - Mika Zibanejad - 41 goals in 57 games this year..for NYR
1st round - Matt Puempel - put on waives, now plays for Grand Rapids
1st round - Stefan Noesen - traded for Bobby Ryan, plays with SJ
2nd round - Shane Prince - (traded for a later pick in 2016)

2012
1st round - Cody Ceci (UFA, doubt he will ever hit

2013
1st round - Curtis Lazar (passed on Anthony Mantha & Shea Theodore)

2014
1st round - traded away for bobby ryan!
2nd round - Andreas Englund (still isn't a stable NHLer)

2015
1st round - Thomas Chabot (great pick ! finally)
1st round - Colin White (TBD; needs to add muscle & get back to 1st year)
2nd round - Gabriel Gagne (failed pick; between Aho & Carlo)
2nd round - Filip Chlapik (TBD)

2016
1st round - Logan Brown (a lot invested in him; needs to have a healthy, BIG year)

2017
1st round - Shane Bowers
2nd round - Alex Formenton (looks good)

2018 - 2019 picks still need time to see. But certainly the periods btw 2009-2014 was a waste when it comes to drafting good talent in the top 2 rounds and holding on to them !!
- AlfieisKing

Shane Bowers ( trade in the Duchene trade )

Sens draft performance is pretty much similar to all other teams relative to their position in the draft. Tkachuk was a 4, Zibanejad was a 6 and Cowen was a 9. Two good ones and an injury prone Dman who could not maintain position. There are few elite players available after the top 5 or so are taken in any draft.

Teams that have recently done a great job of drafting (Edmonton, Toronto and Colorado) have benefited directly from their extended period ineptitude. We can assume the Sens will be able to fully celebrate their own joyous ineptitude on draft day this year and hopefully next year as well.

The Burrows deal was a bad deal because the 2 year - $5M extension given to Burrows was necessary for Burrows to waive his NTC.

I had no issue with the Burrows - Dahlen swap at the time as Burrows was a decent veteran depth addition for the playoff run.

"This system means no team can get into the post-season during the play-in round and then win the lottery. If the Islanders lose during the play-in round the Senators could also get a pick in the 10-to-12 range after dealing Jean-Gabriel Pageau there at the trade deadline." Garrioch

"This system means no team can get into the post-season during the play-in round and then win the lottery. If the Islanders lose during the play-in round the Senators could also get a pick in the 10-to-12 range after dealing Jean-Gabriel Pageau there at the trade deadline." Garrioch
- spatso

So... that would be if all the teams "below"the isles advanced?

Sens draft picks were not very good during the 2009 and 2017 period. I think what helped them was Dorian winning most trades involving our established stars. The big exception being the Mika Zibanejad trade. A total disaster! I think Zibanejad wanted to resign for a lot more money than the Senators were willing to pay. Meaning Melnyk didn’t have the dough! This brings me to my biggest concern, will Melynk spend to the limit like he said he would to keep our young talent here for a Stanley Cup run. Or trade off stars looking for a big payday for more draft picks?

"This system means no team can get into the post-season during the play-in round and then win the lottery. If the Islanders lose during the play-in round the Senators could also get a pick in the 10-to-12 range after dealing Jean-Gabriel Pageau there at the trade deadline." Garrioch
- spatso

I watched the 15 minute Gary Bettman video on the playoffs and draft lottery. If the Isles lose in the first play-in round, the NY Islanders pick will land somewhere between #13 and #15 overall unless they win a 1, 2 or 3 pick in the round 2 draft lottery.

The Islanders points percentage at end of play was 0.588 which was 7th in the east. The 0.588 mark is better than all but the top 4 teams in the west. As a result, only the #5 - Pittsburgh and #6 - Carolina teams would slot in lower than NYI should they lose their play-in round matchups.

Absolute best Ottawa can do is 1st, 2nd and 13th overall.

The worst Ottawa would do, assuming that NYI doesn't win in round 2 of the draft lottery or make it to the conference finals, would be #5, #6 and #23.

I watched the 15 minute Gary Bettman video on the playoffs and draft lottery. If the Isles lose in the first play-in round, the NY Islanders pick will land somewhere between #13 and #15 overall unless they win a 1, 2 or 3 pick in the round 2 draft lottery.

The Islanders points percentage at end of play was 0.588 which was 7th in the east. The 0.588 mark is better than all but the top 4 teams in the west. As a result, only the #5 - Pittsburgh and #6 - Carolina teams would slot in lower than NYI should they lose their play-in round matchups.

Absolute best Ottawa can do is 1st, 2nd and 13th overall.

The worst Ottawa would do, assuming that NYI doesn't win in round 2 of the draft lottery or make it to the conference finals, would be #5, #6 and #23.
- SensFan25

Actually, if I read the press release correctly, the Sens kinda get screwed under this new system:

After the First Draw, the winning team (from either the #1-7 group or the #8-15 group) will no longer be eligible for the Second or Third Draws.

Sounds to me like if Ottawa gets the 1st overall pick, they're not eligible for the 2nd or 3rd picks.

I watched the 15 minute Gary Bettman video on the playoffs and draft lottery. If the Isles lose in the first play-in round, the NY Islanders pick will land somewhere between #13 and #15 overall unless they win a 1, 2 or 3 pick in the round 2 draft lottery.

The Islanders points percentage at end of play was 0.588 which was 7th in the east. The 0.588 mark is better than all but the top 4 teams in the west. As a result, only the #5 - Pittsburgh and #6 - Carolina teams would slot in lower than NYI should they lose their play-in round matchups.

Absolute best Ottawa can do is 1st, 2nd and 13th overall.

The worst Ottawa would do, assuming that NYI doesn't win in round 2 of the draft lottery or make it to the conference finals, would be #5, #6 and #23.
- SensFan25

Thanks. Isles looked sloppy at the end of the year. I like the pNthers chances, but a lot of it comes down to how Bob plays...

Actually, if I read the press release correctly, the Sens kinda get screwed under this new system:



Sounds to me like if Ottawa gets the 1st overall pick, they're not eligible for the 2nd or 3rd picks.
- tkecanuck341

I'm going to hope they mean with their own pick.

It wouldnt be ottawa winning I the 2md draw, it would be San Jose, or vise versa.

Actually, if I read the press release correctly, the Sens kinda get screwed under this new system:



Sounds to me like if Ottawa gets the 1st overall pick, they're not eligible for the 2nd or 3rd picks.
- tkecanuck341

No, nothing changes for the 7 teams that are not included in the group of 24. If the 3 lottery winners come from the missing 7, everything is finished and there will be no need for a follow up lottery.

No, nothing changes for the 7 teams that are not included in the group of 24. If the 3 lottery winners come from the missing 7, everything is finished and there will be no need for a follow up lottery.
- spatso

The "three draws" they are referring to are the picks for 1st, 2nd, and 3rd overall, not the possible "phase 2" lottery. According to the wording, if Ottawa wins the 1st overall pick, they will not be included in the drawings for the 2nd and 3rd overall picks.

Now that could just be poor wording on the statement and doesn't account for Ottawa owning San Jose's pick, but that technically what it says.

I'm going to hope they mean with their own pick.

It wouldnt be ottawa winning I the 2md draw, it would be San Jose, or vise versa.
- david22

I'd tend to agree with you, but that's not what it says....

The "three draws" they are referring to are the picks for 1st, 2nd, and 3rd overall, not the possible "phase 2" lottery. According to the wording, if Ottawa wins the 1st overall pick, they will not be included in the drawings for the 2nd and 3rd overall picks.

Now that could just be poor wording on the statement and doesn't account for Ottawa owning San Jose's pick, but that technically what it says.
- tkecanuck341

Correct but San Jose will be included.

If Ottawa draws a worse case scenario of 5 and 6 plus the Islanders at 13 the haul will still be very substantial. I like Rossi at 5, Perfetti at 6 and Zary at 13.

I watched the 15 minute Gary Bettman video on the playoffs and draft lottery. If the Isles lose in the first play-in round, the NY Islanders pick will land somewhere between #13 and #15 overall unless they win a 1, 2 or 3 pick in the round 2 draft lottery.

The Islanders points percentage at end of play was 0.588 which was 7th in the east. The 0.588 mark is better than all but the top 4 teams in the west. As a result, only the #5 - Pittsburgh and #6 - Carolina teams would slot in lower than NYI should they lose their play-in round matchups.

Absolute best Ottawa can do is 1st, 2nd and 13th overall.

The worst Ottawa would do, assuming that NYI doesn't win in round 2 of the draft lottery or make it to the conference finals, would be #5, #6 and #23.
- SensFan25

this is without a doubt the dumbest system any sports league has ever employed for draft positioning and could end up being a massive disaster for the NHL should a top team like TOR or PITTS, or EDM or other top end team in the NHL get knocked out and win 1st OA....

The "three draws" they are referring to are the picks for 1st, 2nd, and 3rd overall, not the possible "phase 2" lottery. According to the wording, if Ottawa wins the 1st overall pick, they will not be included in the drawings for the 2nd and 3rd overall picks.

Now that could just be poor wording on the statement and doesn't account for Ottawa owning San Jose's pick, but that technically what it says.
- tkecanuck341

yes but they can get 2nd OA with the other pick, so if it is OTT pick that wins 1st OA, they can get 2nd OA with the SJS pick and with the reverse too.

If Ottawa draws a worse case scenario of 5 and 6 plus the Islanders at 13 the haul will still be very substantial. I like Rossi at 5, Perfetti at 6 and Zary at 13.
- spatso

I think#13 that depends if nyi makes it a round or 2 ???.. i think. ... i havent fully digested all this yet,so im unsure.......but yeah still not bad considering

The only wrench is what if.. this all comes to a halt. Then what

I think#13 that depends if nyi makes it a round or 2 ???.. i think. ... i havent fully digested all this yet,so im unsure.......but yeah still not bad considering

The only wrench is what if.. this all comes to a halt. Then what
- spazzbot

I thought it depended on the isles losing in the first rounds, and then plenty of upsets.

I think#13 that depends if nyi makes it a round or 2 ???.. i think. ... i havent fully digested all this yet,so im unsure.......but yeah still not bad considering

The only wrench is what if.. this all comes to a halt. Then what
- spazzbot

By holding round 1 of the draft on June 26, the NHL is essentially committing that draft winners will get their picks. If any of the lottery winners is in the 8-15 slots then it gets trickier.

If NYI wins the play-in round against Florida and make it to the "playoffs", the best their pick can be is 21st overall.

By holding round 1 of the draft on June 26, the NHL is essentially committing that draft winners will get their picks. If any of the lottery winners is in the 8-15 slots then it gets trickier.

If NYI wins the play-in round against Florida and make it to the "playoffs", the best their pick can be is 21st overall.
- SensFan25

Yes.

There is a worst case scenario for the Sens. It would be nasty if the Islanders lost to the Panthers then won a lottery placement in the phase II draft.

I think the Sens combined probability for drafting top 3 stands at 74%. It also means the Sens second pick stands is at 74% probability of being no less than a 3 or 4.

Yes.

There is a worst case scenario for the Sens. It would be nasty if the Islanders lost to the Panthers then won a lottery placement in the phase II draft.
- spatso

If NYI does win a lottery placement, we get their pick next year which will be unprotected. So, who knows?

Any NYI pick that lands at 13 to 15 in this year's draft would be sweet if it happens...