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Forums :: Blog World :: Mike Augello: Offseason Decisions - Travis Dermott
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Atomic Wedgie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: The centre of the hockey universe
Joined: 07.31.2006

Sep 19 @ 11:02 AM ET
Not entirely accurate - have to consider how much escrow is going to be lost in each year.

For simplicity using a 5% discount rate the net present value of $43 million paid out as follows (about $8.5M x 5)
Year 1 - 39M , Yr 2 - 1M, Yr 3 - 1M, Yr 4 1M, Yr 5 1M, NPV = $44.4 Million approx
Paid out with bonus at the back end
Yr 1 - 1M, Yr 2 - 1M, Yr 3 - 1M, Yr 4 - 1M, Yr 5 - 39M, NPV = $34 Million approx

Therefore even at a small discount rate of 5% a player stands to lose $10 million with a back end loaded deal. It may be worth structuring in a way that the bonuses are paid in the second year when return to gate receipts may be anticipated.

- winsix

I realize I am the most pessimistic here, bit for me the starting point for salary clawback next year is 50%.

I can't possibly see a season of more than 48 games, and I can't see a season with anything better than an average of 25% attendance league-wide.

The NHL will be lucky to get 50% of regular revenues.
Garnie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: ON
Joined: 11.30.2009

Sep 19 @ 11:05 AM ET
Maybe tone down your outfit:


- Atomic Wedgie



Good album too šŸ˜¬
Garnie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: ON
Joined: 11.30.2009

Sep 19 @ 11:07 AM ET
I just cut 12-14 inches of hair off. Was tired of finding yesterdayā€™s lunch. Iā€™ve always worn it long even working for government. (There was a smart guy who worked at Finance and ran the budget process who had long hair and ponytail. Everyone said, heā€™s really smart, he can get away with it. Not being as smart I just let my hair grow long so that everyone thought I must be smart.)
- Canada Cup


Leland is that you?

winsix
Season Ticket Holder
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Henry Hudson's Fairchild 24 South Porcupine
Joined: 04.03.2016

Sep 19 @ 11:10 AM ET
I realize I am the most pessimistic here, bit for me the starting point for salary clawback next year is 50%.

I can't possibly see a season of more than 48 games, and I can't see a season with anything better than an average of 25% attendance league-wide.

The NHL will be lucky to get 50% of regular revenues.

- Atomic Wedgie


I agree, there are several moving parts as well - for example if players as well as owners start asking about insurance (for lost games/season) - for which there is significant dollars spent by both, I would think the insurance companies would fight back hard. If there is no insurance protection how much do players get? 50% revenues which I agree is optimistic, would put many owners/teams at risk. Not sure how big the NHL Warchest is at the moment, that's also a factor.
DrunkenCanuck
Vancouver Canucks
Location: Check your PM, ON
Joined: 07.14.2009

Sep 19 @ 11:11 AM ET

- GreatGigInTheSky


LOL
Canada Cup
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: ā€œGive me Point, Cirelli and Paul all day against anybody.ā€ Mr. Cooper , ON
Joined: 07.06.2007

Sep 19 @ 11:16 AM ET
Leland is that you?


- Garnie


No grey genes in the family. Think Willie Nye
Atomic Wedgie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: The centre of the hockey universe
Joined: 07.31.2006

Sep 19 @ 11:16 AM ET
I agree, there are several moving parts as well - for example if players as well as owners start asking about insurance (for lost games/season) - for which there is significant dollars spent by both, I would think the insurance companies would fight back hard. If there is no insurance protection how much do players get? 50% revenues which I agree is optimistic, would put many owners/teams at risk. Not sure how big the NHL Warchest is at the moment, that's also a factor.
- winsix

There was an article in the Athletic about a month ago that tried to answer the question of insurance.

IIRC, they didn't think the NHL and players would be compensated.

My memory may be wrong on this.
Garnie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: ON
Joined: 11.30.2009

Sep 19 @ 11:19 AM ET
No grey genes in the family. Think Willie Nye
- Canada Cup

Oh you sexy thang.....
winsix
Season Ticket Holder
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Henry Hudson's Fairchild 24 South Porcupine
Joined: 04.03.2016

Sep 19 @ 11:20 AM ET
There was an article in the Athletic about a month ago that tried to answer the question of insurance.

IIRC, they didn't think the NHL and players would be compensated.

My memory may be wrong on this.

- Atomic Wedgie


I don't think they would be compensated either, which will put insurance companies at risk moving forward. Why pay big for a service when the company runs away and hides when it's time to provide service. Covid is going to (frank) up insurance companies big time.


mjones242
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Pretentious Beer Snob, ON
Joined: 06.22.2015

Sep 19 @ 11:25 AM ET
Just having some fun with the Armchair GM feature on Hockey Reference:

https://www.capfriendly.c.../armchair-gm/team/1934855

Key Names:

Out:

Nylander*
Andersen**
2021 2nd**
Johnsson***

In:

Pietrangelo (UFA)
Namestnikov (UFA)
Kuemper**
Crouse**
Minnesota's 2020 1st, 2021 2nd*
WPG's 2020 3rd (from OTT)***

HenryHockey
Season Ticket Holder
Detroit Red Wings
Location: Gwinn, MI
Joined: 01.26.2020

Sep 19 @ 11:28 AM ET
Looks like the Leafs are gonna have a crack at AP!

https://www.tsn.ca/contra...have-broken-off-1.1526592
Leafs43
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: ON
Joined: 06.16.2010

Sep 19 @ 11:29 AM ET
I realize I am the most pessimistic here, bit for me the starting point for salary clawback next year is 50%.

I can't possibly see a season of more than 48 games, and I can't see a season with anything better than an average of 25% attendance league-wide.

The NHL will be lucky to get 50% of regular revenues.

- Atomic Wedgie


Not sure why?

MLB is doing 60 games and they have been fine after getting off to a rocky start.

Also, I don't know the details, but I don't think the league can reduce salaries more than the 10% deferral + 20% escrow negotiated. I highly doubt players will be asked to pay back money already paid to them, that is the whole point of escrow.

I think that means players get 70% of their contract next year - which means owners will be sure to have a 82 game season and as many fans in the stands as is feasible/allowed.

Fakepartofme
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Living rent free... in your head, ON
Joined: 09.20.2010

Sep 19 @ 11:32 AM ET
Looks like the Leafs are gonna have a crack at AP!

https://www.tsn.ca/contra...have-broken-off-1.1526592

- HenryHockey

Possibly
However, still several weeks for things to change
Santo_44
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 10.20.2014

Sep 19 @ 11:32 AM ET
Not sure why?

MLB is doing 60 games and they have been fine after getting off to a rocky start.

Also, I don't know the details, but I don't think the league can reduce salaries more than the 10% deferral + 20% escrow negotiated. I highly doubt players will be asked to pay back money already paid to them, that is the whole point of escrow.

I think that means players get 70% of their contract next year - which means owners will be sure to have a 82 game season and as many fans in the stands as is feasible/allowed.

- Leafs43


Love AW but he has been a pessimist to everything sports since it all started.

its fair to think that way but there will be some sort of season.
Santo_44
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 10.20.2014

Sep 19 @ 11:33 AM ET
Possibly
However, still several weeks for things to change

- Fakepartofme

I already bought my fake jersey
winsix
Season Ticket Holder
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Henry Hudson's Fairchild 24 South Porcupine
Joined: 04.03.2016

Sep 19 @ 11:35 AM ET
Trips to Antarctica with space heaters. Letā€™s party like itā€™s 1999
- Canada Cup


A little belated, but I can't resist with lowlife nyisles7 continuing to troll Leafs. Come on Come on down Tampa.... Come on down you got in in ya .... you got to scrape the Isles right off your shoes.


Canada Cup
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: ā€œGive me Point, Cirelli and Paul all day against anybody.ā€ Mr. Cooper , ON
Joined: 07.06.2007

Sep 19 @ 11:41 AM ET
A little belated, but I can't resist with lowlife nyisles7 continuing to troll Leafs. Come on Come on down Tampa.... Come on down you got in in ya .... you got to scrape the Isles right off your shoes.



- winsix


Love it. Time to wipe that grit right off your shoes. Love the live version from that Scorsese movie.
Canada Cup
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: ā€œGive me Point, Cirelli and Paul all day against anybody.ā€ Mr. Cooper , ON
Joined: 07.06.2007

Sep 19 @ 11:49 AM ET
Not sure why?

MLB is doing 60 games and they have been fine after getting off to a rocky start.

Also, I don't know the details, but I don't think the league can reduce salaries more than the 10% deferral + 20% escrow negotiated. I highly doubt players will be asked to pay back money already paid to them, that is the whole point of escrow.

I think that means players get 70% of their contract next year - which means owners will be sure to have a 82 game season and as many fans in the stands as is feasible/allowed.

- Leafs43



Baseball moving to bubble for playoffs. Itā€™s so hard to predict next year. I donā€™t think weā€™ll see much, if anything in the way of fans for good chunk of season. A number of states have said no fans without vaccine and nobody really knows when widespread vaccine use will happen or even how many Americans will vaccinate.

If I had to bet, Iā€™d say some kind of bubble or safe setting scenario for at least half the season.
dozerD10
Anaheim Ducks
Location: long beach, CA
Joined: 01.29.2014

Sep 19 @ 11:51 AM ET
407 new cases in Ontario today.

Offer AP a contract which pays him league minimum this yeat, because I am becoming more and more pessimistic about next season.

- Atomic Wedgie



How many people live in Ontario area. Let me answer that for you...14,745,040

What was the median age of 407 said infections... How many are asymtomatic ??

I'm not here to dispute virus's aren't dangerous... All of them are. We all carry them with us... Some are dormant .. some are triggered by stress..

Lets have some perspective...
Atomic Wedgie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: The centre of the hockey universe
Joined: 07.31.2006

Sep 19 @ 11:56 AM ET
Not sure why?

MLB is doing 60 games and they have been fine after getting off to a rocky start.

Also, I don't know the details, but I don't think the league can reduce salaries more than the 10% deferral + 20% escrow negotiated. I highly doubt players will be asked to pay back money already paid to them, that is the whole point of escrow.

I think that means players get 70% of their contract next year - which means owners will be sure to have a 82 game season and as many fans in the stands as is feasible/allowed.

- Leafs43

It's now generally acknowledged that next season will not start until 2020.

The season must end by the 3rd week of July, as per NBC's demand that it not interfere with the Olympics. Maybe a two week break between regular season and playoffs? Maybe.

And yes, the league absolutely can and will claw back more than 30% if they have to. It's basically the most important clause of the CBA - salaries will not exceed 50% of league revenues.
Tumbleweed
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: avid reader of the daily douche news
Joined: 03.14.2014

Sep 19 @ 11:58 AM ET
Gotcha.

So the Leafs should push the sponsorship BS on Pietro hard. No clawback on sponsorship deals.

My dream would be the Leafs can sign him for 2 years with the idea he can get sponsorships in TO. Then he is coming up for renewal when the money starts flowing again at 32.

I know it won't happen - but this is fantasy land.

- Leafs43


lots of industries are hurting. cut-backs to marketing/advertising budgets are fairly widespread. not so sure the sponsorship deals will be there.

my guess is we reasonable deals at the start of free agency, with minimal/no signing bonuses years 1-2. backloaded instead.

i'm also guessing team budgets will dry up fast. it'll be a game of musical chairs. there will probably be a few surprise guys still standing by halloween that will have to take an undervalued 1-2 year deal.

1 year deals will be the worst. with 20% escrow, 10% deferral, taxes/union dues/agent fees etc - there won't be a lot scratch left at the end of the day.

but who the (frank) knows. there is no precedent to go by. so anyone's guess is as good as another.
winsix
Season Ticket Holder
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Henry Hudson's Fairchild 24 South Porcupine
Joined: 04.03.2016

Sep 19 @ 11:59 AM ET
How many people live in Ontario area. Let me answer that for you...14,745,040

What was the median age of 407 said infections... How many are asymtomatic ??

I'm not here to dispute virus's aren't dangerous... All of them are. We all carry them with us... Some are dormant .. some are triggered by stress..

Lets have some perspective...

- dozerD10


Dozzer - 407 cases is significant for a couple of reasons. The spike corresponds to kids going back to school, and even with extensive testing, it only takes a couple of undetected cases to spead it to many. And 71% of the cases reported were people under the age of 40. Two days in a row of 400+ new cases - not good at all.
Canada Cup
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: ā€œGive me Point, Cirelli and Paul all day against anybody.ā€ Mr. Cooper , ON
Joined: 07.06.2007

Sep 19 @ 11:59 AM ET
How many people live in Ontario area. Let me answer that for you...14,745,040

What was the median age of 407 said infections... How many are asymtomatic ??

I'm not here to dispute virus's aren't dangerous... All of them are. We all carry them with us... Some are dormant .. some are triggered by stress..

Lets have some perspective...

- dozerD10


Without a value laden discussion, Canada and the US approach it differently. Canadian governments see this growth with concern. The border shutdown was extended again yesterday. Thatā€™s the issue.
Atomic Wedgie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: The centre of the hockey universe
Joined: 07.31.2006

Sep 19 @ 11:59 AM ET
Baseball moving to bubble for playoffs. Itā€™s so hard to predict next year. I donā€™t think weā€™ll see much, if anything in the way of fans for good chunk of season. A number of states have said no fans without vaccine and nobody really knows when widespread vaccine use will happen or even how many Americans will vaccinate.

If I had to bet, Iā€™d say some kind of bubble or safe setting scenario for at least half the season.

- Canada Cup

I can't see the border opening in the next six months to an extent that teams could travel freely.
Tumbleweed
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: avid reader of the daily douche news
Joined: 03.14.2014

Sep 19 @ 12:01 PM ET
Dozzer - 407 cases is significant for a couple of reasons. The spike corresponds to kids going back to school, and even with extensive testing, it only takes a couple of undetected cases to spead it to many. And 71% of the cases reported were people under the age of 40. Two days in a row of 400+ new cases - not good at all.
- winsix


that is one way to look at hit.

personally, i see the lowest risk groups getting covid and the highest not. seems like good risk management to me.
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