Jeremy Laura: You’ve got to know when to hold ‘em, Yzerman does

i could see the bottom falling out of the market... teams with no arena revenue are going to be really hurting...

The Captain

On a warm summer's evening
On a team bound for nowhere
I met up with the Captain
We were both too tired to sleep
So we took turns a-starin'
At a roster like Ned Harkness
The boredom overtook us
And he began to speak
He said, "Son, I've made a life
Out of readin' player's faces
Knowin' what the moves were
By the way they held their eyes
So if you don't mind my sayin'
I can see you're out of patience
For a taste of your whiskey
I'll give you some Thomas Greiss
So I handed him my bottle
And he drank down my last swallow
Then he bummed a Namestnikov
And asked me for a light
And the night got deathly quiet
And his face lost all expression
Said, If you're gonna play the rebuild
You gotta learn to play it right
You've got to know when to hold 'em
Know when to fold 'em
Know when to walk away
And know when to run
You never count your cap space money
When you're sittin' at the draft table
There'll be time enough for countin'
When the dealin's done
Every GM knows
That the secret to survivin'
Is knowin' what to throw away
And knowin' what to keep
'Cause every hand's a winner
And Jeff Blashill's a loser
And the best that you can hope for
Is to buy out Abdelkader in his sleep
And when he'd finished speakin'
He turned back toward the window
Crushed out his cigarette
Faded off to sleep
And somewhere in the darkness
The Captain he broke even
But in his final words
I found a Seider that I could keep
You've got to know when to hold 'em
Know when to fold 'em
Know when to walk away
And know when to run
You never count your cap space money
When you're sittin' at the draft table
There'll be time enough for countin'
When the dealin's done
You've got to know when to hold 'em (when to hold 'em)
Know when to fold 'em (when to fold 'em)
Know when to walk away
And know when to run
You never count your cap space money
When you're sittin' at the draft table
There'll be time enough for countin'
When the dealin's done
You've got to know when to hold 'em
Know when to fold 'em
Know when to walk away
And know when to run
You never count your cap space money
When you're sittin' at the draft table
There'll be time enough for countin'
When the dealin's done

https://youtu.be/7hx4gdlfamo

The Captain

On a warm summer's evening
On a team bound for nowhere
I met up with the Captain
We were both too tired to sleep
So we took turns a-starin'
At a roster like Ned Harkness
The boredom overtook us
And he began to speak
He said, "Son, I've made a life
Out of readin' player's faces
Knowin' what the moves were
By the way they held their eyes
So if you don't mind my sayin'
I can see you're out of patience
For a taste of your whiskey
I'll give you some Thomas Greiss
So I handed him my bottle
And he drank down my last swallow
Then he bummed a Namestnikov
And asked me for a light
And the night got deathly quiet
And his face lost all expression
Said, If you're gonna play the rebuild
You gotta learn to play it right
You've got to know when to hold 'em
Know when to fold 'em
Know when to walk away
And know when to run
You never count your cap space money
When you're sittin' at the draft table
There'll be time enough for countin'
When the dealin's done
Every GM knows
That the secret to survivin'
Is knowin' what to throw away
And knowin' what to keep
'Cause every hand's a winner
And Jeff Blashill's a loser
And the best that you can hope for
Is to buy out Abdelkader in his sleep
And when he'd finished speakin'
He turned back toward the window
Crushed out his cigarette
Faded off to sleep
And somewhere in the darkness
The Captain he broke even
But in his final words
I found a Seider that I could keep
You've got to know when to hold 'em
Know when to fold 'em
Know when to walk away
And know when to run
You never count your cap space money
When you're sittin' at the draft table
There'll be time enough for countin'
When the dealin's done
You've got to know when to hold 'em (when to hold 'em)
Know when to fold 'em (when to fold 'em)
Know when to walk away
And know when to run
You never count your cap space money
When you're sittin' at the draft table
There'll be time enough for countin'
When the dealin's done
You've got to know when to hold 'em
Know when to fold 'em
Know when to walk away
And know when to run
You never count your cap space money
When you're sittin' at the draft table
There'll be time enough for countin'
When the dealin's done

https://youtu.be/7hx4gdlfamo
- gergeswillems

Beautiful as ever G!

i could see the bottom falling out of the market... teams with no arena revenue are going to be really hurting...
- MisterBrown

There are so many facets and turns. I wonder if this is what is was like when the original 6 came out of 14 teams (8 folded). It may be history

Only 13 teams have more than 5 million in cap space, with Detroit and Ottawa showing 18 and 20 million respectively.-Jeremy Laura

According to Cap Friendly:

5 teams are already over the cap ceiling,
5 teams are within 0-2mm of reaching the cap ceiling, and
6 teams are within 2mm-3mm of reaching the cap ceiling.

More than 1/2 the league is over or within 3mm of the cap ceiling. Some of the teams outside this top tier (i.e., Avs, Isles, Hawks) have to sign significant RFA that will push them into this top tier. All of them (except for the Sharks and the Pens) still have players they must sign to reach 23 contracts. Granted, some clubs will get LTIR relief, but without that artificial sweetener, more teams than not are teetering on league sanctions for cap violations when the cap compliance deadline arrives and, as of today, they still have players to sign. This tier won't be able to make moves to help the on-ice product before the start of the season or before the trade deadline without getting help from those with cap space. Of course, competing by making roster moves might not even be a major motivation this coming season considering the drop in revenues due to attendance issues.

What a cluster.

As you point out, there are few teams with cap space to provide a landing spot for teams over and close to the hitting the cap ceiling. There is a real estate analogy, here, that involves ever-shrinking beach front property. Why hastily sell your breach front lot to developers? Let your neighbor do that first. It will only increase the value of your lot as more beach front property gets gobbled up.

Yzerman is doing it right. As a Kings fan, I hope Blake does it right, too, and holds out. Patience is going to be the key to maximize the value of cap space that's sought after by the bloated piggy teams. Many teams will get significantly weaker during this time period as they will have to shed prospects and picks just to manage the cap. Losing those assets will weaken them in the long term. Smart cap space teams can really benefit long-term.

According to Cap Friendly:

5 teams are already over the cap ceiling,
5 teams are within 0-2mm of reaching the cap ceiling, and
6 teams are within 2mm-3mm of reaching the cap ceiling.

More than 1/2 the league is over or within 3mm of the cap ceiling. Some of the teams outside this top tier (i.e., Avs, Isles, Hawks) have to sign significant RFA that will push them into this top tier. All of them (except for the Sharks and the Pens) still have players they must sign to reach 23 contracts. Granted, some clubs will get LTIR relief, but without that artificial sweetener, more teams than not are teetering on league sanctions for cap violations when the cap compliance deadline arrives and, as of today, they still have players to sign. This tier won't be able to make moves to help the on-ice product before the start of the season or before the trade deadline without getting help from those with cap space. Of course, competing by making roster moves might not even be a major motivation this coming season considering the drop in revenues due to attendance issues.

What a cluster.

As you point out, there are few teams with cap space to provide a landing spot for teams over and close to the hitting the cap ceiling. There is a real estate analogy, here, that involves ever-shrinking beach front property. Why hastily sell your breach front lot to developers? Let your neighbor do that first. It will only increase the value of your lot as more beach front property gets gobbled up.

Yzerman is doing it right. As a Kings fan, I hope Blake does it right, too, and holds out. Patience is going to be the key to maximize the value of cap space that's sought after by the bloated piggy teams. Many teams will get significantly weaker during this time period as they will have to shed prospects and picks just to manage the cap. Losing those assets will weaken them in the long term. Smart cap space teams can really benefit long-term.
- Only_A_Ladd

I dig the analogy. For sure, the value of that space is only going up. Blake and Robitaille have done excellent work in LA. This hiccup that other teams are facing could really help them to reload. It’s funny, Sakic, Yzerman, Blake, Robitaille all seem to really get the business side. It’s not that long ago (in my mind) they were on the ice together.

Hey J, and fans. Been a busy couple of weeks at work, so been unable to comment, but have been reading; lors of insightful postings....as usual.

So, why would The Captain make a "big splash"? His contracts thus far have been short termers to give the kids n COVID a chance to be addressed. Would be nice to have TJ, for sure. But look at the FA deals being done now; going to be some interesting landscape in 2-3 yrs, about the time some of our kids are hitting their stride which would enable some more pointed moves to be made to address the final short-falls (snag a G because ours aren't developing fast enough, etc...).

I like what's been done: Give the field of prospects a chance to grow, put butts in seats, wait out Cap Hell, & clear up the trash & cash. I think we are on the precipice of an evolution of the team.

There are dang smart moves being made by The Captain. This is gonna be good!!!

Ok, daughter is dancing today, so time to be a Dance Dad. Be safe guys!!

Ok, assuming that Tampa arrives at the place of absolute desperation that we all know is coming. Briesbois becomes ready to attach significant sweeteners to cap-casualty players he needs to move. Who would Detroit want and for what price?

We keep hearing about Johnson and Killorn as likely candidates, but I have to think that everyone outside the core is fair game.

Stevie Y can work his Jedi mind tricks on Briesbois, so who do you take (if anybody) ?

Ok, assuming that Tampa arrives at the place of absolute desperation that we all know is coming. Briesbois becomes ready to attach significant sweeteners to cap-casualty players he needs to move. Who would Detroit want and for what price?

We keep hearing about Johnson and Killorn as likely candidates, but I have to think that everyone outside the core is fair game.

Stevie Y can work his Jedi mind tricks on Briesbois, so who do you take (if anybody) ?
- GalacticStone

Sergachev, TJ, Killorn....I see Offer Sheets in the near future....perfect time in history to do that and not have ever-lasting impact.

I dig the analogy. For sure, the value of that space is only going up. Blake and Robitaille have done excellent work in LA. This hiccup that other teams are facing could really help them to reload. It’s funny, Sakic, Yzerman, Blake, Robitaille all seem to really get the business side. It’s not that long ago (in my mind) they were on the ice together.
- Jeremy Laura

There might be something there, JL, and it might be the off-ice stuff as players that make them really well-prepared to be executives. They've spent decades following rules, watching tape, and probably most importantly for the GM position in the cap era, they are regimented. They can follow a plan and accept restrictions. Add in competitiveness, and you have the ruthlessness you need to survive this environment.

The rebuilds in the cap era are totally different than rebuilds in the past when you could chuck money at players and teams were much, much looser with draft picks. The restrictions now make rebuilds a much longer, painful process. While I'd much rather watch the Kings ice a competitive team (and I'm sure you'd say the same for the Wings), the rebuild game is also fairly interesting to watch and follow. At least this is what I tell myself watching my team suck...

There might be something there, JL, and it might be the off-ice stuff as players that make them really well-prepared to be executives. They've spent decades following rules, watching tape, and probably most importantly for the GM position in the cap era, they are regimented. They can follow a plan and accept restrictions. Add in competitiveness, and you have the ruthlessness you need to survive this environment.

The rebuilds in the cap era are totally different than rebuilds in the past when you could chuck money at players and teams were much, much looser with draft picks. The restrictions now make rebuilds a much longer, painful process. While I'd much rather watch the Kings ice a competitive team (and I'm sure you'd say the same for the Wings), the rebuild game is also fairly interesting to watch and follow. At least this is what I tell myself watching my team suck...
- Only_A_Ladd

Good points, Ladd. So, here's a bit of a comparison, bear with me:
My great-grandmother died at 97, live thru Spanish Flu, the Depression, 2 World Wars, television, internet, cell phones, etc.... The last time I talked to her she said "Michael, think about all I've lived through. I've seen history made that you can't imagine..."
So, I contend that from a sports perspective, we're doing the same. No one's ever had to re-build under cap AND COVID, and flat-cap, etc....Further, NO ONE'S seen such amazing, Hall-of-Fame players do it as GMs. Not quite as historic as Great Grandmother's life, to be sure. But history's being written each day. When the dust settles, an entire new blue-print will have been laid down: How to Rebuild Under Caps, Pandemics, Flat-Caps, and NO Minor League Seasoning.

The GMs you mentioned will be pioneers...and we get to watch it happen and see the fruits of their labours. This is a COOL time to be a hockey fan, brothers!!!

Hey J, and fans. Been a busy couple of weeks at work, so been unable to comment, but have been reading; lors of insightful postings....as usual.

So, why would The Captain make a "big splash"? His contracts thus far have been short termers to give the kids n COVID a chance to be addressed. Would be nice to have TJ, for sure. But look at the FA deals being done now; going to be some interesting landscape in 2-3 yrs, about the time some of our kids are hitting their stride which would enable some more pointed moves to be made to address the final short-falls (snag a G because ours aren't developing fast enough, etc...).

I like what's been done: Give the field of prospects a chance to grow, put butts in seats, wait out Cap Hell, & clear up the trash & cash. I think we are on the precipice of an evolution of the team.

There are dang smart moves being made by The Captain. This is gonna be good!!!

Ok, daughter is dancing today, so time to be a Dance Dad. Be safe guys!!
- mcmastermike1968

Good luck out there! Very cool to pull dad duties in the weekend!

There might be something there, JL, and it might be the off-ice stuff as players that make them really well-prepared to be executives. They've spent decades following rules, watching tape, and probably most importantly for the GM position in the cap era, they are regimented. They can follow a plan and accept restrictions. Add in competitiveness, and you have the ruthlessness you need to survive this environment.

The rebuilds in the cap era are totally different than rebuilds in the past when you could chuck money at players and teams were much, much looser with draft picks. The restrictions now make rebuilds a much longer, painful process. While I'd much rather watch the Kings ice a competitive team (and I'm sure you'd say the same for the Wings), the rebuild game is also fairly interesting to watch and follow. At least this is what I tell myself watching my team suck...
- Only_A_Ladd

The thing LA has that most other teams don’t is Drew Doughty (and Kopitar). If it goes full rebuild you could get some nice assets for a defenseman like DD. some impressive pieces over there

Good points, Ladd. So, here's a bit of a comparison, bear with me:
My great-grandmother died at 97, live thru Spanish Flu, the Depression, 2 World Wars, television, internet, cell phones, etc.... The last time I talked to her she said "Michael, think about all I've lived through. I've seen history made that you can't imagine..."
So, I contend that from a sports perspective, we're doing the same. No one's ever had to re-build under cap AND COVID, and flat-cap, etc....Further, NO ONE'S seen such amazing, Hall-of-Fame players do it as GMs. Not quite as historic as Great Grandmother's life, to be sure. But history's being written each day. When the dust settles, an entire new blue-print will have been laid down: How to Rebuild Under Caps, Pandemics, Flat-Caps, and NO Minor League Seasoning.

The GMs you mentioned will be pioneers...and we get to watch it happen and see the fruits of their labours. This is a COOL time to be a hockey fan, brothers!!!
- mcmastermike1968

It’s a good point. Not all players can transition, but these have. They have been on both sides of the table and seen highs and lows. Very impressive hockey pedigree

Why not take it all from Tampa? talk to sergachev, cirelli, cernak.... tell them to hold on an you'll sign them to offer sheets, 7x7 serge, 7x7 cirelli, 7x5 cernak... tampa can't afford it and will have to offload guys plus gutting their future drafts if they want to sign them... they'll be offering TJ with a 1st, 2nd and 3rd or more just to dump him to clear cap... same goes with killorn and anyone else without a NMC. Teams aren't ready to do any favours to Tampa... Det, Ott could clean up. they don't have to sign their own RFAs if they can pilfer a better deal out of Tampa... Det/ Ott should line up some trades in the meantime in case Tampa doesn't or can't match the offer sheet... totally f over Tampa...

Ok, assuming that Tampa arrives at the place of absolute desperation that we all know is coming. Briesbois becomes ready to attach significant sweeteners to cap-casualty players he needs to move. Who would Detroit want and for what price?

We keep hearing about Johnson and Killorn as likely candidates, but I have to think that everyone outside the core is fair game.

Stevie Y can work his Jedi mind tricks on Briesbois, so who do you take (if anybody) ?
- GalacticStone

Sergachev, Cirelli or Point (not going to trade him) is all i would want from Tampa (no point in saying Kucherov, Headman or Vasilevskiy).

Personally, i really don't want TJ. Way too much term left on a declining player that could end up being another Nielsen for the Wings. They would need to add a 1st and Foote for me to want him.

Sergachev or Cirelli are the most attractive options that don't include someone you likely consider part of the core. They are young enough to fit into the rebuild. TJ and even Killorn, are not. They would just more expensive stopgaps.

Sergachev, Cirelli or Point (not going to trade him) is all i would want from Tampa (no point in saying Kucherov, Headman or Vasilevskiy).

Personally, i really don't want TJ. Way too much term left on a declining player that could end up being another Nielsen for the Wings. They would need to add a 1st and Foote for me to want him.

Sergachev or Cirelli are the most attractive options that don't include someone you likely consider part of the core. They are young enough to fit into the rebuild. TJ and even Killorn, are not. They would just more expensive stopgaps.
- dcz28

Why stop at just a 1st and Foote...?? Tampa can't play unless they get compliant. Need to pick the bones over clean...

Why not take it all from Tampa? talk to sergachev, cirelli, cernak.... tell them to hold on an you'll sign them to offer sheets, 7x7 serge, 7x7 cirelli, 7x5 cernak... tampa can't afford it and will have to offload guys plus gutting their future drafts if they want to sign them... they'll be offering TJ with a 1st, 2nd and 3rd or more just to dump him to clear cap... same goes with killorn and anyone else without a NMC. Teams aren't ready to do any favours to Tampa... Det, Ott could clean up. they don't have to sign their own RFAs if they can pilfer a better deal out of Tampa... Det/ Ott should line up some trades in the meantime in case Tampa doesn't or can't match the offer sheet... totally f over Tampa...
- MisterBrown

You do know that signing a player to an offer sheet would cost draft picks and the Wings could only do 1 guy. I wouldn't do it either for the Wings given they would lose their 1st round pick that will likely be a high lottery pick.

Why stop at just a 1st and Foote...?? Tampa can't play unless they get compliant. Need to pick the bones over clean...
- MisterBrown

A 1st and Foote is a pretty decent haul to take on TJ. Might be a couple of teams willing to take that contract for that price. Also Tampa could just turn around and deal Sergachev and/or Cirelli if teams ask for too much for TJ. More than likely, they will lose one of Sergachev or Cirelli unless they can move someone else (making enough salary) along with TJ to be able to sign both Sergachev and Cirelli.

My preference is to get one of Sergachev or Cirelli anyways not TJ.

Out of Sergachev, Cirelli, and Cernak, I think Sergachev is the guy they keep. Judging by what he says in interviews and on social media, Sergachev loves it in Tampa. I doubt he would even sign an offer sheet. If I am Briesbois, I keep Sergachev. D-men with his ceiling don't grow on trees. No offense to Cirelli or Cernak.

Undersized speedy skillful forwards is kinda Tampa's thing. As much as I like Cirelli, we have more talent in the pipeline behind him that have similar potential on paper. We don't have much in the defense pipeline behind Foote, so Sergachev is the most valuable in my mind.

Cernak is solid, but he's a complimentary piece. Big hard-hitting d-men that don't score are not as hard to come by as guys like Sergachev.

Out of Sergachev, Cirelli, and Cernak, I think Sergachev is the guy they keep. Judging by what he says in interviews and on social media, Sergachev loves it in Tampa. I doubt he would even sign an offer sheet. If I am Briesbois, I keep Sergachev. D-men with his ceiling don't grow on trees. No offense to Cirelli or Cernak.

Undersized speedy skillful forwards is kinda Tampa's thing. As much as I like Cirelli, we have more talent in the pipeline behind him that have similar potential on paper. We don't have much in the defense pipeline behind Foote, so Sergachev is the most valuable in my mind.

Cernak is solid, but he's a complimentary piece. Big hard-hitting d-men that don't score are not as hard to come by as guys like Sergachev.
- GalacticStone

The culture/team there is very special. There are only a handful of teams in the league where guys skate through walls for each other and the coach. I’d love Sergachev, but what TB, Boston (though declining), Wash have is such a special window. It’s not something you find everywhere.

The culture/team there is very special. There are only a handful of teams in the league where guys skate through walls for each other and the coach. I’d love Sergachev, but what TB, Boston (though declining), Wash have is such a special window. It’s not something you find everywhere.
- Jeremy Laura

Tampa owes almost all of that culture to the machine that Yzerman built. Lots of teams have owners with deep pockets like Vinik, but when you combine that with a masterful GM, then you have dynasty type of potential. Stevie built that in Tampa and now he is doing the same thing in Detroit. I expect Tampa's window will finally close around the same time Detroit's is opening again - in 3 or 4 more seasons down the road. Stamkos and Hedman aren't getting any younger. Nobody can replace Hedman. He's like Tampa's Lidstrom. Those are generational talents. Tampa's clock is ticking. Detroit is steadily moving up. The two will collide again in the post season in coming years, and I expect the result will be different than 2015.

Out of Sergachev, Cirelli, and Cernak, I think Sergachev is the guy they keep. Judging by what he says in interviews and on social media, Sergachev loves it in Tampa. I doubt he would even sign an offer sheet. If I am Briesbois, I keep Sergachev. D-men with his ceiling don't grow on trees. No offense to Cirelli or Cernak.

Undersized speedy skillful forwards is kinda Tampa's thing. As much as I like Cirelli, we have more talent in the pipeline behind him that have similar potential on paper. We don't have much in the defense pipeline behind Foote, so Sergachev is the most valuable in my mind.

Cernak is solid, but he's a complimentary piece. Big hard-hitting d-men that don't score are not as hard to come by as guys like Sergachev.
- GalacticStone

Yeah i didn't mention Cernak because the Wings have enough defensive minded dmen that don't produce points. No point in trading for another one. Cirelli is interesting but Sergachev would be the best option given how weak the Wings are at left handed dmen that can produce offense.

On another site someone proposed a horrible trade between the Wings and Jets. The deal was Laine and Roslovic for Mantha, Zadina, Seider and Cholowski