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Forums :: Blog World :: Ryan Wilson: I Ceci a trend
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Rinosaur
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Somewhere, NJ
Joined: 01.21.2016

Oct 18 @ 11:17 AM ET
The more I think about it, I really like this D group we have assembled. Matheson and Ceci is fantastic for a bottom pair.

Forget Matheson's contract because it sucks and remember that while Ceci has struggled at times, he always gets buried with D zone starts and played on a Toronto team where damn near no forwards are known as responsible 2 way players. I could see CC being our new Ian Cole.

What worries me is offensive talent beyond the top 6.

- MacPatty


The problem here is you can't forget the salary and separate the two. The Matheson deal is one of the main reasons the bottom six is terrible and the other is how JR decided to spend his remaining cap space.

In a world with a GM who knows what he's doing, JJ gets bought out or moved with retained salary regardless, letting Riikola become the 3r pair LD which he's 100% capable of doing and allowing the Pens build out the bottom six with more quality.

If that was the only way to move on from Hornqvist, then as much I wanted the Pens to move on from Horn, you don't move him yet and you have all that money to either let McCann play LW and pay for a better 3C or vice-versa.

We don't know yet how Matheson and Ceci will look. Maybe Ceci in a lesser role provides a steadier game? Maybe Matheson is supported by whoever he plays with and his offensive game can shine? Right now, I'm not ready to say the Pens defense is any better than it was with JJ until I see them play.
Rinosaur
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Somewhere, NJ
Joined: 01.21.2016

Oct 18 @ 11:37 AM ET
If the Hornqvist deal never happens, but the Pens still buy out JJ I argue the Pens are a better team before even filling out the rest of the lineup and I'm still including Ceci.

Jake-Sid-Kap
Zucker-Geno-Rust
???-McCann-Horn
ZAR-Blue-Tanev
Lafferty

Dumo/Letang
Petts/Marino
Riikola/Ruhwedel
POJ/Ceci

This leaves the Pens still in a similar cap situation with $2.6M free, but you have a stronger lineup. The defense is better. The 3rd line is automatically better. With all the bargains that flew, you could grab a Tyler Ennis or someone like that to fill in that LW position and save room for Poulin instead of signing garbage.
Tojo.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Aliquippa, PA
Joined: 11.11.2014

Oct 18 @ 12:11 PM ET
You would be better off thinking that Ceci is replacing Johnson and Matheson is in for Schultz.

Both come at a cheaper rate than there predecessor, both are younger and are filling the needs vacated by each, albeit opposite sides of the ice. Are they better? That is the question.

What Rutherford is thinking, I really can't answer that question, either.

- Thunderbolt

This is a good way of looking at it. I think Ceci is at least better than JJ.

Matheson may be a better player than Schultz, but he's prone to those spectacular mistakes that end up in your own net. Schultz was fairly safe for an offensive defenseman, he just didn't do much. Matheson will create some opportunities and win more pucks with that aggressiveness. Not sure which is better.
Tojo.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Aliquippa, PA
Joined: 11.11.2014

Oct 18 @ 12:17 PM ET
At some point I'd be curious to see those pairings swapped. Marino might be more like Dumoulin as a defenseman who excels at covering for a more offensive minded partner. And Pettersson has done well with guys like JJ and Gudbranson on a third pair so maybe he'd work well with Ceci.
TheGame316
Joined: 11.18.2008

Oct 18 @ 12:50 PM ET
If the Hornqvist deal never happens, but the Pens still buy out JJ I argue the Pens are a better team before even filling out the rest of the lineup and I'm still including Ceci.

Jake-Sid-Kap
Zucker-Geno-Rust
???-McCann-Horn
ZAR-Blue-Tanev
Lafferty

Dumo/Letang
Petts/Marino
Riikola/Ruhwedel
POJ/Ceci

This leaves the Pens still in a similar cap situation with $2.6M free, but you have a stronger lineup. The defense is better. The 3rd line is automatically better. With all the bargains that flew, you could grab a Tyler Ennis or someone like that to fill in that LW position and save room for Poulin instead of signing garbage.

- Rinosaur


That 3rd line sucks and so does that 3rd pairing. McCann isn't the ideal center, but lead hands and slow feet Hornqvist is not going to compliment his game at all. And the 2.6 Million you have left is not going to buy a player that will bridge that gap

Imagine a deployment of

?? McCann Horn
Rikki Ruhwedal

barf. Which player is moving the needle when that line is out and what are they specifically good at? Scoring? No, Defense? No, Grinding/Hustle/Speed? No,No,No

There is a reason that Ruhdewal and Rikki can't stick in the NHL as regulars. There is a reason that 30 other GM's only value Ruh as a 700k defenseman in a non cap crunch world and Rikki, despite being somewhat buried here, settles for a million rather than looking for regular playing time elsewhere

Ceci cost 400k over having Maniscalo(sp) on the roster because he probably wasn't ready anyways. 400k well spent
Rinosaur
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Somewhere, NJ
Joined: 01.21.2016

Oct 18 @ 1:10 PM ET
That 3rd line sucks and so does that 3rd pairing. McCann isn't the ideal center, but lead hands and slow feet Hornqvist is not going to compliment his game at all. And the 2.6 Million you have left is not going to buy a player that will bridge that gap

Imagine a deployment of

?? McCann Horn
Rikki Ruhwedal

barf. Which player is moving the needle when that line is out and what are they specifically good at? Scoring? No, Defense? No, Grinding/Hustle/Speed? No,No,No

There is a reason that Ruhdewal and Rikki can't stick in the NHL as regulars. There is a reason that 30 other GM's only value Ruh as a 700k defenseman in a non cap crunch world and Rikki, despite being somewhat buried here, settles for a million rather than looking for regular playing time elsewhere

Ceci cost 400k over having Maniscalo(sp) on the roster because he probably wasn't ready anyways. 400k well spent

- TheGame316


I have to disagree with much of this. Riikola only played two seasons. His first season was obviously rough as he adjusted to NA hockey, but he made a great turnaround his second season when playing the lefts side. The only reason he didn't stick was because of how they handled JJ. Ruh is perfectly fine.

$2.6M can absolutely get a player to bridge the gap, or have you not been paying attention to this off-season?
TheGame316
Joined: 11.18.2008

Oct 18 @ 1:14 PM ET
I have to disagree with much of this. Riikola only played two seasons. His first season was obviously rough as he adjusted to NA hockey, but he made a great turnaround his second season when playing the lefts side. The only reason he didn't stick was because of how they handled JJ. Ruh is perfectly fine.

$2.6M can absolutely getting a player to bridge the gap, or have you not been paying attention to this off-season?

- Rinosaur


These 2.6 Million dollar players, you have it on good authority that they wanted to sign here and GMJR just never called them?

Want to know something cool about the cap?

Send down Lafferty, Send Down Ruhwedal and we still have 2.7 Million under the cap. You can run on 13 F and 7 D with a 22 man roster if you want to

Want to sign a 3 Million dollar player? Also send down ERod or Jank and you can


Rinosaur
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Somewhere, NJ
Joined: 01.21.2016

Oct 18 @ 1:21 PM ET
These 2.6 Million dollar players, you have it on good authority that they wanted to sign here and GMJR just never called them?

Want to know something cool about the cap?

Send down Lafferty, Send Down Ruhwedal and we still have 2.7 Million under the cap. You can run on 13 F and 7 D with a 22 man roster if you want to

Want to sign a 3 Million dollar player? Also send down ERod or Jank and you can

- TheGame316


Or maybe you can just sign better players to begin with instead of jumping the first day of free agency? Maybe wait out to see how the market shakes out.

You keep bringing up this really dumb point implying that I think all players want to play here. You keep saying it and I've never said or hinted at it, so just stop.

You can't seem to wrap your head around a simple idea of being patient and waiting to see how the market shakes out. There will always be plenty of Jankowskis and Erods to snatch up at the league minimum. You're not missing out by waiting to sign guys like this.
TheGame316
Joined: 11.18.2008

Oct 18 @ 1:29 PM ET
Or maybe you can just sign better players to begin with instead of jumping the first day of free agency? Maybe wait out to see how the market shakes out.

You keep bringing up this really dumb point implying that I think all players want to play here. You keep saying it and I've never said or hinted at it, so just stop.

You can't seem to wrap your head around a simple idea of being patient and waiting to see how the market shakes out. There will always be plenty of Jankowskis and Erods to snatch up at the league minimum. You're not missing out by waiting to sign guys like this.

- Rinosaur


Ok, lets say you stayed patient and didn't sign Jank or ERod and they are gone now

Who out there is soo enticing that you can find for 2.6 Million (and you also need two 700k guys to flush out some depth)

and Go

Wht don't you realize that Jank and ERod make 700k and have prevented NOTHING in terms of cap flexibility?
Rinosaur
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Somewhere, NJ
Joined: 01.21.2016

Oct 18 @ 1:33 PM ET
Ok, lets say you stayed patient and didn't sign Jank or ERod and they are gone now

Who out there is soo enticing that you can find for 2.6 Million (and you also need two 700k guys to flush out some depth)

and Go

- TheGame316


No, I won't name any players that are left because that's not the point. It's players that got signed AFTER he jumped so quickly to nab to fourth line players, one of which who barely kept a spot with the flames. Not every player got signed day one. Players were getting grabbed up the second, third and fourth day. I'm not saying at the end of the day he ultimately makes the same moves, but when you see all the bargain trades and signings that happened, it seems foolish to jump at two mediocre players before seeing what happens.

This is about waiting until day two or three to see what's going on.

You're seriously dense.

TheGame316
Joined: 11.18.2008

Oct 18 @ 1:39 PM ET
Or maybe you can just sign better players to begin with instead of jumping the first day of free agency? Maybe wait out to see how the market shakes out.

You keep bringing up this really dumb point implying that I think all players want to play here. You keep saying it and I've never said or hinted at it, so just stop.

You can't seem to wrap your head around a simple idea of being patient and waiting to see how the market shakes out. There will always be plenty of Jankowskis and Erods to snatch up at the league minimum. You're not missing out by waiting to sign guys like this.

- Rinosaur


I don't think that nobody wants to play here. But Pittsburgh is probably a players 5th or so choice. And when a GOOD player decides to play at a discount, one of their first 4 choices probably elects to sign them

When players willingly take discounts, they tend to get more choices on their destinations. Mercenaries that play only for top dollar will go almost anywhere, but you tend to overpay for them to do so. Which one do you want? The discount guy who chooses somewhere else while you wait for a return phone call or the mercenary you have to overpay?
TheGame316
Joined: 11.18.2008

Oct 18 @ 1:47 PM ET
No, I won't name any players that are left because that's not the point. It's players that got signed AFTER he jumped so quickly to nab to fourth line players, one of which who barely kept a spot with the flames. Not every player got signed day one. Players were getting grabbed up the second, third and fourth day. I'm not saying at the end of the day he ultimately makes the same moves, but when you see all the bargain trades and signings that happened, it seems foolish to jump at two mediocre players before seeing what happens.

This is about waiting until day two or three to see what's going on.

You're seriously dense.

- Rinosaur


In terms of Capspace Erod and Jank are free. What part don't you get that they can be send down to the AHL and they don't count towards the cap

They are literally free players and they cost nothing in terms of the NHL roster capspace if something better came along

You are the one that is dense here

The only signed player that cost any money was Ceci, who is 350k over AHL and 400k over Maniscalco, who the org probably didn't think was ready anyways
j.boyd919
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Tampa, FL
Joined: 06.14.2011

Oct 18 @ 2:03 PM ET
https://twitter.com/Ineff.../1317862449522135040?s=20

Here's a big ass thread from Micah doing some analysis on Ceci if anyone is interested.
j.boyd919
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Tampa, FL
Joined: 06.14.2011

Oct 18 @ 2:05 PM ET
That 3rd line sucks and so does that 3rd pairing. McCann isn't the ideal center, but lead hands and slow feet Hornqvist is not going to compliment his game at all. And the 2.6 Million you have left is not going to buy a player that will bridge that gap

Imagine a deployment of

?? McCann Horn
Rikki Ruhwedal


barf. Which player is moving the needle when that line is out and what are they specifically good at? Scoring? No, Defense? No, Grinding/Hustle/Speed? No,No,No

There is a reason that Ruhdewal and Rikki can't stick in the NHL as regulars. There is a reason that 30 other GM's only value Ruh as a 700k defenseman in a non cap crunch world and Rikki, despite being somewhat buried here, settles for a million rather than looking for regular playing time elsewhere

Ceci cost 400k over having Maniscalo(sp) on the roster because he probably wasn't ready anyways. 400k well spent

- TheGame316



That line looks better than any of our current bottom 6 lines.
TheGame316
Joined: 11.18.2008

Oct 18 @ 2:12 PM ET
That line looks better than any of our current bottom 6 lines.
- j.boyd919


I'm going to say that

McCann Jank Erod
Matheson Ceci

is better than

??? McCann Hornqvist
Rikki Ruhwedal

and it's not even close

The former has speed to burn and individual players that can use that speed to create their own chance, especially Matheson and/or harrass the other team on the forecheck if they are dumping and chasing. The Latter has exactly none of that and I fail to see what they can do besides dump the puck in and go for a change after playing their entire shift in their own zone

Victoro311
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Washington, DC
Joined: 06.17.2014

Oct 18 @ 2:23 PM ET
I'm going to say that

McCann Jank Erod
Matheson Ceci

is better than

??? McCann Hornqvist
Rikki Ruhwedal

and it's not even close

The former has speed to burn and individual players that can use that speed to create their own chance, especially Matheson and/or harrass the other team on the forecheck if they are dumping and chasing. The Latter has exactly none of that and I fail to see what they can do besides dump the puck in and go for a change after playing their entire shift in their own zone

- TheGame316

That's a ton of confidence in a statement that flies in the face of all statistical analysis. Option 2 also still has cap space to address the 3LW position and make it not a dump and chase line. Hell, you could even throw Rodrigues on option 2 and you get the speed you want and its still better than option 1.
Victoro311
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Washington, DC
Joined: 06.17.2014

Oct 18 @ 2:36 PM ET
https://twitter.com/IneffectiveMath/status/1317862449522135040?s=20

Here's a big ass thread from Micah doing some analysis on Ceci if anyone is interested.

- j.boyd919

Alrighty, so we should put Ceci with Letang then.

Anyways, kidding aside, we're probably an especially bad fit for Ceci then, as I don't really see what defenseman we have on this roster besides Letang who can carry the puck at the level he needs besides Letang. The Matheson-Ceci pairing will probably be similar to Phaneuf-Ceci if I had to guess.
madmike71
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Joined: 12.21.2006

Oct 18 @ 3:07 PM ET
This is not the way I would have assembled the team, but agree with 316 that this team is better than the one that lost to the Habs. If I had to guess, Rutherford is holding a spot open for a young guy for the 3rd line....Poulin, Legare? I would have approached this off-season much more patiently, but I don't think anything Rutherford had done is too bad. All these minimum deals are totally flushable.

There will be NHL talent available after the season starts....whenever that is.
j.boyd919
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Tampa, FL
Joined: 06.14.2011

Oct 18 @ 3:10 PM ET
I'm going to say that

McCann Jank Erod
Matheson Ceci

is better than

??? McCann Hornqvist
Rikki Ruhwedal

and it's not even close

The former has speed to burn and individual players that can use that speed to create their own chance, especially Matheson and/or harrass the other team on the forecheck if they are dumping and chasing. The Latter has exactly none of that and I fail to see what they can do besides dump the puck in and go for a change after playing their entire shift in their own zone

- TheGame316


It actually is close. And I'd give the nod to the 2nd group.
10inchTerror
Joined: 10.13.2019

Oct 18 @ 3:27 PM ET
It actually is close. And I'd give the nod to the 2nd group.
- j.boyd919


Rikki and Ruhw were a good pairing last year albeit in a small sample. I’d prefer them with McCann jank erod. But all in all I think the offseason was fine. Only time will tell anyways. If poj, Poulin, O’Connor, or maniscalco are ready and really show that in camp they will get there chance. If not bases are covered for now and if they blow jr will do jr things seeing as sully isn’t smart enough to maximize his team
j.boyd919
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Tampa, FL
Joined: 06.14.2011

Oct 18 @ 3:54 PM ET
Rikki and Ruhw were a good pairing last year albeit in a small sample. I’d prefer them with McCann jank erod. But all in all I think the offseason was fine. Only time will tell anyways. If poj, Poulin, O’Connor, or maniscalco are ready and really show that in camp they will get there chance. If not bases are covered for now and if they blow jr will do jr things seeing as sully isn’t smart enough to maximize his team
- 10inchTerror


I feel like the first group would be a negative return where as I could see the 2nd group at least breaking even.
Victoro311
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Washington, DC
Joined: 06.17.2014

Oct 18 @ 3:58 PM ET
I feel like the first group would be a negative return where as I could see the 2nd group at least breaking even.
- j.boyd919

Also you gotta factor that the 4th line doesn't score at all. Hornqvist is a poor play driver at this point, but at least he still produces tangible offense. Rodrigues seems to be a wash all around of being a mediocre play driver and meh producer, and Jankowski is a defensive specialist who doesn't drive play and has a really bad offensive impact on his line mates. Has a good shot and can score goals, but if he's not scoring it himself, he's not helping the offense one bit.

I'd much prefer a line that struggles to drive play but has some offensive capability and can do alright with sheltered deployment and provide some secondary scoring, than another defensive line, given the makeup of the rest of our roster.
Grinder47
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Somerset, PA
Joined: 10.20.2013

Oct 18 @ 4:20 PM ET
Remember when Sid was younger and way faster and had a lot of success playing with the skeleton on Bill Guerin? I don’t see why a slower older smarter wouldn’t have success with Kovy. But they will probably find some Simon like scrub and talk about his speed all the time.
Tojo.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Aliquippa, PA
Joined: 11.11.2014

Oct 18 @ 4:31 PM ET
https://twitter.com/IneffectiveMath/status/1317862449522135040?s=20

Here's a big ass thread from Micah doing some analysis on Ceci if anyone is interested.

- j.boyd919

That was an interesting read though I'm not sure what it clarified. I do appreciate how he looked for why things happened instead of just 'look at my model'.

Also, Ceci played a weird amount of time on his off-side for a poor puck moving defenseman.
Thunderbolt
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Wampum, PA
Joined: 01.20.2014

Oct 18 @ 4:38 PM ET
That 3rd line sucks and so does that 3rd pairing. McCann isn't the ideal center, but lead hands and slow feet Hornqvist is not going to compliment his game at all. And the 2.6 Million you have left is not going to buy a player that will bridge that gap

Imagine a deployment of

?? McCann Horn
Rikki Ruhwedal

barf. Which player is moving the needle when that line is out and what are they specifically good at? Scoring? No, Defense? No, Grinding/Hustle/Speed? No,No,No

There is a reason that Ruhdewal and Rikki can't stick in the NHL as regulars. There is a reason that 30 other GM's only value Ruh as a 700k defenseman in a non cap crunch world and Rikki, despite being somewhat buried here, settles for a million rather than looking for regular playing time elsewhere

Ceci cost 400k over having Maniscalo(sp) on the roster because he probably wasn't ready anyways. 400k well spent

- TheGame316



I'm not a big analytics guy.

If you look at Natural Stat Trick, Hornqvist and McCann were two of our top forwards on the GF% (5v5). Together they were +1, they were better apart from each other. The team struggled (negative) when neither was on the ice.

They may not be flashy and score fancy goals but they get the job done. So your narrative of these two players being next to worthless is completely off base.
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