Michael Stuart: Brown's Arbitration Ask is... Incredibly Reasonable

i'm wondering if the white deal is what's giving the sens pause with brown.

they signed Brown to "2nd line money" only to quickly realize that he's at best a 3rd line player.....and now they're stuck with a relatively high cap hit and long term for a guy who will surely be a 3rd or even 4th line player once the kids start to crack the lineup.

the same could be true with Brown. they probably don't want to get locked in for long term at an AAV that's unreasonable for a 3rd line player.....which is where he'll likely end up eventually.

I personally wouldn't mind having him at 4 x 16 or something like that.........just trying to reason out maybe why the team is hesitating.

Colin White can be bought out at 1/3 until he is 26.

It’s not fair to use his contract as a comparison without mentioning it.

I think his salary is $4 mill this year, then starts going up. If he is bought out after this season, Sens owe something like $8 mill over 6 years. So his contract was little risk on the Sens side

Please correct me if wrong

Let him go to free agency. No one has cap space to sign, or space on their internal cap. Tampa can't giveaway players Lols... THIS is a buyer's market.

Yeah honestly, Brown won't be playing top six a couple years down the road. He's a very solid player, and he scored at a .6 ppg clip, but the guy was playing way above where he will be expected to slot in the future with 20+ minutes a game and Ottawa's pipeline is rich in top two line potential. In an ideal world, CB is an excellent 3rd line RW. I suspect CB was seriously pissed the Leafs traded him. He's a Toronto kid, a Leafs fan, and got moved to their provincial rival. His ask reflects as much - IMO he should be getting no more than 4M for 3+ years and it looks like he's either getting traded or gone at the next deadline with this divide. Trade him for Mackenzie Weegar - Ottawa kid, solid RD, could be a great long term addition.

Wallace said Duclair ask 5 x 5.5m because he thing , he outperformed White . I guess probably the same happen with C.Brown. This White contract gonna haunt us for coming years

we kinda of have an abundance of Browns right now anyways

Would find a way to bring Connor Brown back to the Leafs any day

Good point sensarmy and Crosside - White has been a serious disappointment and players comparing themselves to that contract are completely justified in doing so. CBs ask of a higher AAV than White is rational, simply by the comparative numbers they put up. White got his deal after scoring 41 pts in 71 games, less than Brown's output. Duke probably bit himself in the ass because nobody else in the league looks at the Colin White deal as a measuring stick, but internally it will be a problem, much as Zaitsev's deal on the backend will.

To think we could have had 67s alum and legit talent Konecny instead of White. That was a serious draft flub, but Dorion clearly has somebody scouting the US that has his ear.

i'm wondering if the white deal is what's giving the sens pause with brown.

they signed Brown to "2nd line money" only to quickly realize that he's at best a 3rd line player.....and now they're stuck with a relatively high cap hit and long term for a guy who will surely be a 3rd or even 4th line player once the kids start to crack the lineup.

the same could be true with Brown. they probably don't want to get locked in for long term at an AAV that's unreasonable for a 3rd line player.....which is where he'll likely end up eventually.

I personally wouldn't mind having him at 4 x 16 or something like that.........just trying to reason out maybe why the team is hesitating.
- sensarmy_11

It’s what happened here....

He looks okay next to good players and is a good PKer.

But when you get real talent he gets pushed down to the 3rd and 4th lines and can’t produce offensively anymore.

He’s a really good 3rd line player that will get overpaid by a desperate team as a UFA next year.

Sign him to a one year deal and trade him as a rental at the TDL.

Teams would love a brown come playoff time. Let another team overlay him like the isles did to Pageau.

Wallace said Duclair ask 5 x 5.5m because he thing , he outperformed White . I guess probably the same happen with C.Brown. This White contract gonna haunt us for coming years
- Crosside

Let them walk, then if they're going to play hardball. Duclair, Pageau, Brown... all of them vastly outperformed what they would be able to do on the majority of other NHL teams. I can't blame their agents for wanting to cash in, but they all had conspicuous career-best seasons playing on a team that offered them premium ice time and opportunities they won't have elsewhere. Case in point, last year Duclair's annualized production went up 69%, Pageau's production went up 104%, and Brown's production went up 69%... including more than a 100% increase in goals. All three players also had at least a full 1min/gp added to their avg. PP ice time from their previous NHL season.

I mean, good for them for playing well with the added ice time, but if it's my $4M/yr+, I would seriously think twice about adding any kind of term. Especially if your plan is to give a lot of those premium scoring-line/PP minutes to the likes of Dadonov, Stutzle, Batherson, Norris, or Brown. For asset management, I guess you would ideally sign Brown to a 1yr deal for whatever allows you to avoid the arbitration hearing, and then nab a 2nd/3rd round pick at the trade deadline. But I think this is why you saw Duclair sent off almost immediately... I get his interest in securing a long-term deal, but I'd want absolutely no part of that.

Interesting side note - Mikheyev and CBrown scored at an almost identical clip last year, but Brown got way more minutes, PP, and prime playing time. Same age (Mikheyev is a few months younger). Mikheyev's ask? 2.7Mpy to the Leaf's offer of 1M per. 2.7M is an entirely reasonable ask, and the *real* range we should be looking at for Brown.

3.5m-4m is fair

I remember when no one wanted to trade Brown or Duclair at the deadline.

Why wouldn't players want reasonable value based on some of the contracts in the league and you have the all-mighty Colin White making nearly 5 mill a year do essentially nothing of value? Although, Dadonov signed a reasonable deal, so maybe this theory doesn't have a lot of merit.

Either way, Brown and Duclair should have been moved at the deadline if there was no intention of locking them as part of this teams new core, not that they should even do that anyways.

Terrible asset management with two pieces that really could have gotten you a nice package(s).

I'd almost rather have Duclair than Brown. There are hundreds of hockey players like Brown. Hard nosed, works hard, gets dirty goals. Duclair on the other hand has way more natural skill that you can't teach. While the consistency isn't there yet, hard to ignore his speed and shot when he is on his A game.

Certainly strange times with these RFA's.

To Winnipeg: Drake Batherson, Connor Brown, any 2020 prospect not in round 1, 2021 1st (top 10 protected - becomes 2021 2nd and 2022 1st)

To Ottawa: Patrik Laine, 2021 5th

Sign Anthony Duclair 2 years $7.5M (3 in 1st year)
Sign Andy Greene 1 year $2.75M

Brady Tkachuk - Chris Tierney - Patrik Laine
Tim Stutzle - Josh Norris - Evgeni Dadonov
Anthony Duclair - Logan Brown - Colin White
Nick Paul - Artem Anisimov - Austin Watson

Thomas Chabot - Andy Greene
Erik Brannstrom - Eric Gudbranson
Christian Wolanin - Nikita Zaitsev
Extra: Mike Rielly - Artem Zub

Matt Murray
Marcus Hogberg

Eventually have Colin white go to center and move tierney back

To Winnipeg: Drake Batherson, Connor Brown, any 2020 prospect not in round 1, 2021 1st (top 10 protected - becomes 2021 2nd and 2022 1st)

To Ottawa: Patrik Laine, 2021 5th

Sign Anthony Duclair 2 years $7.5M (3 in 1st year)
Sign Andy Greene 1 year $2.75M

Brady Tkachuk - Chris Tierney - Patrik Laine
Tim Stutzle - Josh Norris - Evgeni Dadonov
Anthony Duclair - Logan Brown - Colin White
Nick Paul - Artem Anisimov - Austin Watson

Thomas Chabot - Andy Greene
Erik Brannstrom - Eric Gudbranson
Christian Wolanin - Nikita Zaitsev
Extra: Mike Rielly - Artem Zub

Matt Murray
Marcus Hogberg
- AlfieisKing

Ottawa doesn't seem like a good trading partner for Winnepeg. I'd imagine any trade with the Sens would involve Stutzle or Sanderson as a starting point. Obviously the Sens probably aren't doing that, so Laine to Ottawa doesn't make much sense.

To Winnipeg: Drake Batherson, Connor Brown, any 2020 prospect not in round 1, 2021 1st (top 10 protected - becomes 2021 2nd and 2022 1st)

To Ottawa: Patrik Laine, 2021 5th

Sign Anthony Duclair 2 years $7.5M (3 in 1st year)
Sign Andy Greene 1 year $2.75M

Brady Tkachuk - Chris Tierney - Patrik Laine
Tim Stutzle - Josh Norris - Evgeni Dadonov
Anthony Duclair - Logan Brown - Colin White
Nick Paul - Artem Anisimov - Austin Watson

Thomas Chabot - Andy Greene
Erik Brannstrom - Eric Gudbranson
Christian Wolanin - Nikita Zaitsev
Extra: Mike Rielly - Artem Zub

Matt Murray
Marcus Hogberg
- AlfieisKing

Definitely not ready to part ways with batherson. Trade is not bad at all but maybe colin white and/or Tierney can be added?

Ottawa doesn't seem like a good trading partner for Winnepeg. I'd imagine any trade with the Sens would involve Stutzle or Sanderson as a starting point. Obviously the Sens probably aren't doing that, so Laine to Ottawa doesn't make much sense.
- 13sundin13

I agree with the 1st part. I tried so many different situations but it doesn't make sense with Ottawa's prospects - we don't know what they are and won't know until they hit the ice and play this season out

I think Winnipeg would accept a package (at least they should) of either Colin White or Logan Brown, WITH Batherson and a prospect, pick

Ottawa doesn't seem like a good trading partner for Winnepeg. I'd imagine any trade with the Sens would involve Stutzle or Sanderson as a starting point. Obviously the Sens probably aren't doing that, so Laine to Ottawa doesn't make much sense.
- 13sundin13

In my opinion Kevin Cheveldayoff is the toughest GM in the NHL to trade with. If you do make a trade with him don’t shake his hand as you will be missing a few fingers. Laine is great but Dorian would get fleeced in a trade. For sure the Senators would lose Stutzle or Sanderson for a player who would move on once his current contract is over.

The Sens have the number 1 prospect pool in the NHL right now, if they want a top end player then sign a UFA, don’t give away future superstars in a lopsided trade.

Definitely not ready to part ways with batherson. Trade is not bad at all but maybe colin white and/or Tierney can be added?
- SENS-sational

Yeah. Certainly Colin White would make more sense than Batherson; seeing how he fits their style and can play center or wing

I don't like throwing batherson in a trade either, but 45-50g guys don't grow on trees; they don't grow anywhere. In fact only Stamkos, OV, and Kovalchuk have hit more than 50 goals (current players). Laine can hit 50 in 1 year, and possibly 55.

I agree with the 1st part. I tried so many different situations but it doesn't make sense with Ottawa's prospects - we don't know what they are and won't know until they hit the ice and play this season out

I think Winnipeg would accept a package (at least they should) of either Colin White or Logan Brown, WITH Batherson and a prospect, pick
- AlfieisKing

If the Sens could get rid of Colin White and Logan Brown to get someone like Laine then I’m all for it. Unfortunately the other NHL teams know they are not and will probably never be much better than they are now.

To Winnipeg: Drake Batherson, Connor Brown, any 2020 prospect not in round 1, 2021 1st (top 10 protected - becomes 2021 2nd and 2022 1st)

To Ottawa: Patrik Laine, 2021 5th

Sign Anthony Duclair 2 years $7.5M (3 in 1st year)
Sign Andy Greene 1 year $2.75M

Brady Tkachuk - Chris Tierney - Patrik Laine
Tim Stutzle - Josh Norris - Evgeni Dadonov
Anthony Duclair - Logan Brown - Colin White
Nick Paul - Artem Anisimov - Austin Watson

Thomas Chabot - Andy Greene
Erik Brannstrom - Eric Gudbranson
Christian Wolanin - Nikita Zaitsev
Extra: Mike Rielly - Artem Zub

Matt Murray
Marcus Hogberg
- AlfieisKing

Ottawa trading for Laine would completely destroy the rebuild and (frank) them like the leafs are. Not only do you have to give up all those assets, but you also need to re-sign him. He’ll want north of 10 mil, and as soon as that happens, Tkachuk wants more, and every other prospect who re-signs will want more, and then we end up in cap hell.

I’d much rather roll with batherson and see what he turns into.

By far the worst thing about this scenario is that C Brown was the sweetener for saving the Leafs and taking on the rotting carcass that is the Zaitsev contract. We should have gotten a first rounder in that deal. If you wanted Brown that bad, you'd think they would lock him up - but at his ask, you have to think that trade was a terrible value trade for a decent player in a lost year, for six years of immoveable cap space, a window during which, according to Melnyk, we are winning the cup. I said the deal sucked for Ottawa at the time, and if Brown departs, Dorion really missed the mark. Also I find the idea that DJ Smith 'recommended' Zaitsev *highly* suspect, almost as if he was doing his former employer a favour.

By far the worst thing about this scenario is that C Brown was the sweetener for savings the Leafs and taking on the rotting carcass that is the Zaitsev contract. We should have gotten a first rounder in that deal. If you wanted Brown that bad, you'd think they would lock him up - but at his ask, you have to think that trade was a terrible value trade for a decent player in a lost year, for six years of immoveable cap space, a window during which, according to Melnyk, we are winning the cup. I said the deal sucked for Ottawa at the time, and if Brown departs, Dorion really missed the mark. Also I find the idea that DJ Smith 'recommended' Zaitsev *highly* suspect, almost as of he was doing his former employer a favour.
- Bartacus

Good post!

I am very suspect about DJ Smith’s assessment of his former players. The above is a travesty for Ottawa and this doesn’t include his insistence that Dorian take on Hainsey a washed up player years ago. Dorian needs to listen to his scouts or even Eugene when Smith asks him to trade for a loser buddy!