Bill Meltzer: Quick Hits: Prospect Updates, TIFH and More

Bill for the expansion draft your choice is to protect one of these 3 players: Nak, Jake, JVR. Who do you protect and why?

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Bill Meltzer: Quick Hits: Prospect Updates, TIFH and More
- bmeltzer

Bill, the Carchidi article was discussed by us yesterday. It was very heartening to read.

I was struck by the Athletic ranking of our prospects. For the benefit of those who don't subscribe:

1. Frost 2. York. 3. Brink 4. Andrae. 5. Zamula. 6. Foerster. 7. Errson 8. Allison. 9. Cates. 10. Rubtsov. 11. Laczynski 12. Ratcliffe. 13. Millman 14. Kase. 15. Friedman 16. Attard. 17. O'Brien. 18. Hogberg. 19. Wisdom. 20. Sushko

Things that struck me:

Andrae is ranked high!
O'Brien is quite low for a mid range 1st rounder. The comments by Flahr on him do seem measured but for others his praise is more effusive.
Rubstov, who I thought is sinking, is still ahead of Ratcliffe?
Errson is #7 and Sandstrom and Ustimenko are not even on the list?

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- ClaudeFather

See it was funny when the original person said it; not so much when an unoriginal person like yourself says it. Very weak.

See it was funny when the original person said it; not so much when an unoriginal person like yourself says it. Very weak.
- login

I still think it’s funny, it’s the same people everyday on here, no one is going to think I came up with it

Bill, the Carchidi article was discussed by us yesterday. It was very heartening to read.

I was struck by the Athletic ranking of our prospects. For the benefit of those who don't subscribe:

1. Frost 2. York. 3. Brink 4. Andrae. 5. Zamula. 6. Foerster. 7. Errson 8. Allison. 9. Cates. 10. Rubtsov. 11. Laczynski 12. Ratcliffe. 13. Millman 14. Kase. 15. Friedman 16. Attard. 17. O'Brien. 18. Hogberg. 19. Wisdom. 20. Sushko

Things that struck me:

Andrae is ranked high!
O'Brien is quite low for a mid range 1st rounder. The comments by Flahr on him do seem measured but for others his praise is more effusive.
Rubstov, who I thought is sinking, is still ahead of Ratcliffe?
Errson is #7 and Sandstrom and Ustimenko are not even on the list?
- PT21

I would think Obrein is slotted just fine, he had a pretty terrible chain of events going from college hockey to the BCHl. He has a lot to prove. I think Rubtsov as a ceiling of fourth line checker while ratcliffe as a middle six winger, maybe Rubtsov is closer to that then ratcliffe cracking the middle 6.

Regarding our prospects--

I was also surprised to see some of the rankings of our prospects! The top 6 look solid but after that it gets random and I would love to know the reasons why players were ranked so high or so low.
It seems I missed the fun talk about our prospects yesterday though

Bill, do you agree with the ranking of our players? Is there anyone you'd add to that list or is there anyone you'd remove from it?

To me, rubstov is ranked really high on the list

I still think it’s funny, it’s the same people everyday on here, no one is going to think I came up with it
- ClaudeFather

Actually, the original person was Bender Rodriguez couple of months back. He said it to the dude during our discussion of the Mark Milbury women fracas.

I miss hockey

I still think it’s funny, it’s the same people everyday on here, no one is going to think I came up with it
- ClaudeFather

It is funny. Just not funny coming from you; create your own.

Actually, the original person was Bender Rodriguez couple of months back. He said it to the dude during our discussion of the Mark Milbury women fracas.
- PT21

Ok

It is funny. Just not funny coming from you; create your own.
- login

I’m looking forward to your doom and gloom today, tell us how bad it is please.

I would think Obrein is slotted just fine, he had a pretty terrible chain of events going from college hockey to the BCHl. He has a lot to prove. I think Rubtsov as a ceiling of fourth line checker while ratcliffe as a middle six winger, maybe Rubtsov is closer to that then ratcliffe cracking the middle 6.
- ClaudeFather

I don't think the reason of ranking is who is closer to their ceiling. If that were the case, Frost would not be ranked first. Its talent level overall.

So why is a 4th line checker (GR) ranked higher than a potential second line winger (IR)?

I’m looking forward to your doom and gloom today, tell us how bad it is please.
- ClaudeFather

doom and gloom?

I don't think the reason of ranking is who is closer to their ceiling. If that were the case, Frost would not be ranked first. Its talent level overall.

So why is a 4th line checker (GR) ranked higher than a potential second line winger (IR)?
- PT21

You don’t see Frost as someone fighting for a job in camp with a realistic shot? I would think it’s a blend unless I missed something, if they think a prospect has a high ceiling but is 3 years away are they really your number one prospect? That most likely knocks them down a few notches.

You don’t see Frost as someone fighting for a job in camp with a realistic shot? I would think it’s a blend unless I missed something, if they think a prospect has a high ceiling but is 3 years away are they really your number one prospect? That most likely knocks them down a few notches.
- ClaudeFather

Based on what they wrote, it seems entirely founded on potential and talent, not how close they are to cracking the NHL roster, or how close they are to their personal ceilings.

Thus, Friedman, who already has an NHL contract, is ranked far below Andrae, York etc.

Based on what they wrote, it seems entirely founded on potential and talent, not how close they are to cracking the NHL roster, or how close they are to their personal ceilings.

Thus, Friedman, who already has an NHL contract, is ranked far below Andrae, York etc.
- PT21

Sorry chief, I’m not a subscriber so just looking at your list you provided from the article.

Sorry chief, I’m not a subscriber so just looking at your list you provided from the article.
- ClaudeFather

I understand, but just look at the list.

If it was based on distance between a player's ceiling and current reality, rather than the height of ceiling, then surely Friedman would be higher than Andrae, and Ustimenko (already in the AHL) should be higher than Errson. And guys like Allison should be higher than Foerster.

You see what I am saying?

Actually, the original person was Bender Rodriguez couple of months back. He said it to the dude during our discussion of the Mark Milbury women fracas.
- PT21

I understand, but just look at the list.

If it was based on distance between a player's ceiling and current reality, rather than the height of ceiling, then surely Friedman would be higher than Andrae, and Ustimenko (already in the AHL) should be higher than Errson. And guys like Allison should be higher than Foerster.

You see what I am saying?
- PT21

I do but if they view Friendman as a 6/7 swing man and are high on the other guys they would still be better prospects, it kind of goes both ways. Same thing with Foerster, obviously the new shiny first rounder so they might think his ceiling is very high. I had mentioned it as a blend , not 50/50. Just my take with very little insight into the list you provided. I see what you’re saying though. The list does seem oddly ranked.

Bill, the Carchidi article was discussed by us yesterday. It was very heartening to read.

I was struck by the Athletic ranking of our prospects. For the benefit of those who don't subscribe:

1. Frost 2. York. 3. Brink 4. Andrae. 5. Zamula. 6. Foerster. 7. Errson 8. Allison. 9. Cates. 10. Rubtsov. 11. Laczynski 12. Ratcliffe. 13. Millman 14. Kase. 15. Friedman 16. Attard. 17. O'Brien. 18. Hogberg. 19. Wisdom. 20. Sushko

Things that struck me:

Andrae is ranked high!
O'Brien is quite low for a mid range 1st rounder. The comments by Flahr on him do seem measured but for others his praise is more effusive.
Rubstov, who I thought is sinking, is still ahead of Ratcliffe?
Errson is #7 and Sandstrom and Ustimenko are not even on the list?
- PT21

I like Andrae but i want to see him see him get a bigger role at the SHL level (he's only 18, so there's no rush) and make a WJC impact this/next year before I'd rank him above Zamula.

I personally think Laczynski is going to be in the NHL at some point in 2020-21 and I think he's got a good chance at sticking.

Whether you love Connor Bunnaman or are lukewarm to him, he belongs in the top 20 as someone who played in 20 NHL regular season games plus four playoff games. I like Kase's energy and his underrated hands. So I like him (and I know Alex Appleyard loooooooves Kase), but if you ask me which guy will play more NHL games, at least in Philly, I would not be able to confidently predict that Kase will get to 20 games for Philly (14 to go) unless he takes a big jump this season or if there are a lot of injuries on the wing.

Rubtsov has a whole lot to prove, starting with staying healthy and producing. He certainly looked like more than a 4C prospect in those 13 games (the season ending shoulder injury happened in the first period of game 14, so I toss that out) he played as a rookie for the Phantoms, but he didn't show it at all last season even before the second shoulder injury and especially not after his return. Then he's gotten injured again this season in the KHL and is easing his way back in. I'd have had him Top 10 for sure going into 2019-20 but, if anything, he's gone backward since then.

The interesting thing with Ratcliffe is that, by the end of last season, he was talking the talk of someone who now views his own future as more of a bottom-six PK type than a top/middle six power forward who is on the PP. I think the org is hoping the offense starts coming around more as well, although Scott Gordon praised how well Ratcliffe adapted to being more of a role-playing type as a rookie. I personally would not want to give up on trying to develop him as a goal-scoring winger who can also kill penalties. I'm also not under the illusion that it's going to be a fast-track process to get him there.

The Flyers see Wisdom as a top 9 NHL forward at some point, as long as he has some skill around him. Let's put it this way: you don't sign fourth-rounders within a week of the Draft if you don't think there's going to a faster development curve to be pro-ready than for the average pick in his range.

Attard is hard to figure out where to slot. He was a wildcard pick as a late-bloomer and still a wildcard a season into his collegiate career. O'Brien is also a wildcard but a very talented one. His freshman year at Providence was an injury-plagued mess. The Flyers were still a bit surprised that he didn't stick out for sophomore year and elected to transfer to BU (which necessitated sitting out the 2019-20 NCAA season) and playing either Canadian Junior A or USHL before he go to BU as a sophomore. I wouldn't write him off, though. He is gifted to the point where the Flyers stepped up on him and viewed him as a potential home run. So far, it certainly doesn't look that way but, if he has a big year at BU, the outlook will shift. I personally would rank him above Attard but, forward-versus-D rankings are always an apples-to-oranges exercise to some degree.

Ustimenko jumped directly from the MHL to ECHL and worked his way to the AHL. To do that at age 20 (now 21) probably merited a top 20 spot. With Ersson, I think his stellar 2018-19 and quick start this season absolutely earn him a spot on the list. Top 7 is a bit high right now, though. If keeps this up all season -- he plays today against Andrae's team, BTW -- then I can better see a ranking that high.

Millman has all sorts of tools, and took a big step last season. I think he's a player, though, who will have a significant learning curve as a pro especially on the defensive side of the puck. Alex loves Hogberg; I like the prospect, but I don't yet feel confident in saying he's going to be an NHLer. Considering how late he was signed before his rights expired, I suspect there was division internally within the Flyers' organization about whether he's going to top out as an AHL player or a guy who could be a starting 6 in the NHL. Ultimately, I think his puck-moving ability, coachable work ethic and comfort at playing within structure won out (along with the fact that Kalynuk wasn't going to sign here, so there was an extra contract slot still available). I want to see Linus a bit in the AHL before I'd comfortably put him in the top 20.

Overall, though, rankings are tough undertakings and I think the top end of the list is dead on. Charlie asked Brent the right questions, too. No one's list will be exactly the same.

Based on what they wrote, it seems entirely founded on potential and talent, not how close they are to cracking the NHL roster, or how close they are to their personal ceilings.

Thus, Friedman, who already has an NHL contract, is ranked far below Andrae, York etc.
- PT21

The list is a combined ranking from two different lists—Charlie O’Connor’s and Alex Appleyard’s lists.

You can see that they differ widely on some prospects. No two people would have the exact same list even if they weighted upside and readiness the same.

The list is a combined ranking from two different lists—Charlie O’Connor’s and Alex Appleyard’s lists.

You can see that they differ widely on some prospects. No two people would have the exact same list even if they weighted upside and readiness the same.
- NC Flyers Fan

Appleyard is the best Flyers coverage guy out there today when it comes to prospects. Probably all around.

Bill (or anyone else),
Does Kase have any shot at being an NHL contributor? Any chance that it happens with the Flyers?
Other than Bill's write-ups, I don't really follow the prospects too closely. So I can't really say that I'm surprised to see him ranked so low on that list by the Athletic, but I guess I'm just a little disappointed. I liked his game from the little that I've seen. What would you say is his main issue/hurdle? Thanks

EDIT: Just saw Bill's post that mentions Kase.