Michael Stuart: Mike's Mailbag: Stamkos, Cap Problems, and Restricted Free Agents

If the sweetener for Johnson was Cernak what would TBL need to get back. NYI got 2 2nds for Toews and figure to be using at least one of them to move a contract out. Would a 2nd do it? 2 3rds?
Greedy Devils fan

Adding Cernak as a sweetener in a TJ trade might get a 3rd back. It is Tyler and a 1st minimum trade for future considerations....... Cernak would be better than a 1st so that should get TB some return.

Adding Cernak as a sweetener in a TJ trade might get a 3rd back. It is Tyler and a 1st minimum trade for future considerations....... Cernak would be better than a 1st so that should get TB some return.
- HenryHockey

Let’s do Lindstrom and a 2nd for TJ and Cernak.

I don't think you would get anything back - in fact, I'm not sure Cernak alone is enough of a sweetener to take on all of TJ's remaining 4 year contract.

Trading McDonaugh is not going to be easy, he is 31 with a big cap hit, TBL is screwed, teams are very wary now with the cap frozen and possibly declining next year, TBL will loose one or 2 of Cernak, Sergy, Cirelli.

If i am a GM id ask for Cirelli+1st round pick+ to take Johnsons contract, Cirelli+1st round pick++ to McDonaugh/killorn/gourde. TBL is going to have to overpay to move their contracts.

Adding Cernak as a sweetener in a TJ trade might get a 3rd back. It is Tyler and a 1st minimum trade for future considerations....... Cernak would be better than a 1st so that should get TB some return.
- HenryHockey

Well, I look at it this way - Detroit got a 2nd for taking on Mark Stall, who has one year on his contract left at $5.7M - so getting someone to take on TJ's 4 years at $5M is going to be a heck of a lot more expensive than that. And, to me, TJ has about the same value as Stall does.

Well, I look at it this way - Detroit got a 2nd for taking on Mark Stall, who has one year on his contract left at $5.7M - so getting someone to take on TJ's 4 years at $5M is going to be a heck of a lot more expensive than that. And, to me, TJ has about the same value as Stall does.

I think the bar should be set on the Marleau trade. Plus people have some pity for the leafs, ain't nobody got any for the cup champs

In a worst case scenario, the GM engineers some intrigue using the Yzerman Jedi playbook. A few strategic leaks to the media about Cirelli being unhappy and negotiations not going well. This might trigger a rival GM to offer-sheet him. Take the picks and let Cirelli walk. Like Mike said, in an ideal world you keep everybody, but Cirelli is more replaceable than Sergachev.

That happens and suddenly you need about $4m less on the cap (give or take) from not having to bridge Cirelli.

Trade Paquette and Coburn - both have some small value and decent contracts with small term. Coburn's expires after next season. Dump them for a bag of pucks - both are replaceable with prospects on league minimum contracts.

Slot Johnson back in at center and hope he regains his form with more icetime and playing his natural position instead of 3rd line wing. Slot one of our prospects in as 4th center to replace Paquette.

Bridge Sergachev and Cernak. Tampa kicks the can down the road another season.

Or, play the arbitration-buyout game and have somebody go to arbitration to get another buyout and use that on somebody.

There are options and I am sure Briesbois is exploring all of them.

In a worst case scenario, the GM engineers some intrigue using the Yzerman Jedi playbook. A few strategic leaks to the media about Cirelli being unhappy and negotiations not going well. This might trigger a rival GM to offer-sheet him. Take the picks and let Cirelli walk. Like Mike said, in an ideal world you keep everybody, but Cirelli is more replaceable than Sergachev and Cernak.

That happens and suddenly you need about $4m less on the cap (give or take) from not having to bridge Cirelli.

Trade Paquette and Coburn - both have some small value and decent contracts with small term. Coburn's expires after next season. Dump them for a bag of pucks - both are replaceable with prospects on league minimum contracts.

Slot Johnson back in at center and hope he regains his form with more icetime and playing his natural position instead of 3rd line wing. Slot one of our prospects in as 4th center to replace Paquette.

Bridge Sergachev and Cernak. Tampa kicks the can down the road another season.

Or, play the arbitration-buyout game and have somebody go to arbitration to get another buyout and use that on somebody.

There are options and I am sure Briesbois is exploring all of them.
- GalacticStone

Tampa has no arbitration filings.

Trading McDonaugh is not going to be easy, he is 31 with a big cap hit, TBL is screwed, teams are very wary now with the cap frozen and possibly declining next year, TBL will loose one or 2 of Cernak, Sergy, Cirelli.

If i am a GM id ask for Cirelli+1st round pick+ to take Johnsons contract, Cirelli+1st round pick++ to McDonaugh/killorn/gourde. TBL is going to have to overpay to move their contracts.
- Athrin

If that is your asking price as GM you would never make a single trade...

No way they move one of the RFAs WITH a 1st rounder just to move a guy they are trading to make room for the RFAs in the first place... and they definitely dont do it to have literally no return...

Ducks would take Tyler but it will cost.. how much is negotiable.

I am to the point that I am just going to watch it unfold and not try to figure out how its going to go.

I am pretty certain Stamkos declined to waive his NMC. So Stamkos, Hedman, Kucherov, Point and Vasy are untouchables.

I think they will re-sign at least two of the big three RFAs when its all said and done. Darren Dreger was on TSN Radio and he said its not collusion but its common knowledge around the league between owners/gms to not offer sheet players in this market. If an RFA is going to move it will be thru a genuine trade. So I don't see an offer sheet happening to the Lightning.

Lastly I think they will eventually move Tyler Johnson. But that is not enough. Its going to be interesting to watch it unfold.

I am to the point that I am just going to watch it unfold and not try to figure out how its going to go.

I am pretty certain Stamkos declined to waive his NMC. So Stamkos, Hedman, Kucherov, Point and Vasy are untouchables.

I think they will re-sign at least two of the big three RFAs when its all said and done. Darren Dreger was on TSN Radio and he said its not collusion but its common knowledge around the league between owners/gms to not offer sheet players in this market. If an RFA is going to move it will be thru a genuine trade. So I don't see an offer sheet happening to the Lightning.

Lastly I think they will eventually move Tyler Johnson. But that is not enough. Its going to be interesting to watch it unfold.
- stammerman

If no team offer sheets the Bolts this yr... Esp Cirelli they should just get rid of it in the next CBA...

Ducks should offer 5 x 4.75 no way Bolts could match ...

I agree. There's no easy way out given circumstances. Let's talk business, that's what this is all about for players and owners as well... Personal feelings aside. They should try moving Stamkos, if there is a way. Everyone else on the list is more important then him moving forward.

I agree. There's no easy way out given circumstances. Let's talk business, that's what this is all about for players and owners as well... Personal feelings aside. They should try moving Stamkos, if there is a way. Everyone else on the list is more important then him moving forward.
- kastr99

They would actually lose fan support if they traded Stamkos at this point as he is a local hero in Tampa now that his story is out about losing his child at 21 weeks during the Columbus series, leaving the bubble for 3 weeks to be with his wife who then told him to return to team, quarantine and then do the win one for stammer 2:47 with a goal.

Also I guess he said in that same interview with local beat writer in Tampa Erik Erlendsson who asked about the rumor he was asked to waive and his response was he plans on playing in Tampa next season.

Do we know which teams are on TJ's approved trade list?

Well, I look at it this way - Detroit got a 2nd for taking on Mark Stall, who has one year on his contract left at $5.7M - so getting someone to take on TJ's 4 years at $5M is going to be a heck of a lot more expensive than that. And, to me, TJ has about the same value as Stall does.
- Iago

that's not a good comparison.

Staal is 33 and the equivalent of a human pylon.....he's awful now.

TJ is almost 4 years younger and is a WAAAAAAAAYYYYYY more valuable player, he was a 30 goal guy just 2 seasons ago and was on a 20 goal pace last year. he's slightly overpaid, especially in this environment, but unlike Marc Staal, he's not a cap dump...he's just a player that tampa can't afford to keep.

that's not a good comparison.

Staal is 33 and the equivalent of a human pylon.....he's awful now.

TJ is almost 4 years younger and is a WAAAAAAAAYYYYYY more valuable player, he was a 30 goal guy just 2 seasons ago and was on a 20 goal pace last year. he's slightly overpaid, especially in this environment, but unlike Marc Staal, he's not a cap dump...he's just a player that tampa can't afford to keep.
- sensarmy_11

Yeah a lot of people have taken the idea that Tampa is in cap hell and turned it into Tyler Johnson sucks at hockey.

There’s 3 Tampa forwards to choose from and these are their 5v5 offensive production rates the last 2 seasons. Who do you take?

Player A
0.97 goals per 60
1.93 points per 60

Player B
0.72 goals per 60
1.80 points per 60

Player C
1.15 goals per 60
1.87 points per 60

that's not a good comparison.

Staal is 33 and the equivalent of a human pylon.....he's awful now.

TJ is almost 4 years younger and is a WAAAAAAAAYYYYYY more valuable player, he was a 30 goal guy just 2 seasons ago and was on a 20 goal pace last year. he's slightly overpaid, especially in this environment, but unlike Marc Staal, he's not a cap dump...he's just a player that tampa can't afford to keep.
- sensarmy_11

Agreed. Not to mention, TJ's actual salary is lower than his caphit, so there's that also (FWIW).

Yeah a lot of people have taken the idea that Tampa is in cap hell and turned it into Tyler Johnson sucks at hockey.
- Feds91Stammer

Agree 100%. Johnson is overpaid, but so is half of Tampa's roster. He's still a good top-6 player on most teams and the fact he was stuffed into a 3rd line winger position speaks more to Tampa's depth than any deficiency on Johnson's part.

Agree 100%. Johnson is overpaid, but so is half of Tampa's roster. He's still a good top-6 player on most teams and the fact he was stuffed into a 3rd line winger position speaks more to Tampa's depth than any deficiency on Johnson's part.
- GalacticStone

ya he is so good that NO TEAM took him when TBL placed him on waivers....TBL is going to have to pay to move Killorn, TJ McDonough.

ya he is so good that NO TEAM took him when TBL placed him on waivers....TBL is going to have to pay to move Killorn, TJ McDonough.
- Athrin

No team took him because reasons that have little to do with his ability. No team is going to turn down sweeteners. Briesbois was trying to see if anyone was going to do him a favor, not putting Johnson's abilities up for judgement. Although, the optics can't feel good for Johnson. If anything, it means his contract is not tempting enough to pick up without some being retained and/or assets being attached. Wherever he ends up, he'll score at least 20 goals. Maybe 30 under the right circumstances. That's gonna cost north of $4m anywhere in the league.

one of the reasons why nobody on Tampa will ever want to waive their NMC/NTC is the no state income tax of Florida.

You are asking the player to take a paycut by waiving it and accepting a trade to most other teams in the league