Brian Sickles: Can Ovechkin Still Catch Gretzky?

Brian Sickles: Can Ovechkin Still Catch Gretzky?
- Brian Sickles

No.

I think the biggest obstacle will be avoiding injury,and let's face it the older he gets the more susceptible he is to it, however if he manages to stay healthy there's no reason he shouldn't .

Nope. Thanks to lockouts and COVID. He's (frank)ed unless he's Jagr.

one of the best developments of covid

The odds were never great and now they're worse, but then again he's been consistently defying the odds.

All that matters is how much he cares about the record. If he wants the record, the Capitals will keep him around until he gets it. Gretzky probably could've been a 50 point guy for another 5 years.

Ovechkin's probably gets another 150 as a legit elite goal scorer. The last 50 will be tough, but doable. Reduced travel this year and maybe next will help a lot.

It’s up to Ovi & only shortened seasons will stop him. Injuries I don’t see as an issue. What will hold him back is it will get harder as he gets older. I’ll say close but no cigar.

I never thought I would say this, but I think he does it. COVID definitely makes it more of a challenge, but unless the league shuts down for a major amount of time (e.g. a lost season), then I think he pulls it off.

I would say based on the recent reports of his intentions to finish his career in Russia it will depend on how long he wants to play in the NHL.

It’s my opinion that he probably has one or two 50 goal seasons left on him which will put him in striking distance if he plays another 5 years or so. If not I could see him maybe sticking around for a 6th season if the caps are good and he’s still capable of producing.

While his complete game and skating is expected to deteriorate most of his goals come from him sitting in one spot waiting for a pass and he’ll always have one of the best shots even has he gets older. Add in that he’s stayed relatively healthy and he could have a long career if he wants one

Thank you all for sharing your thoughts!!! I really appreciate it. I believe Ovechkin does regress over time. This what his season goal totals might look like with steady regression in goals:

2020-2021: 50 goals (138 goals from the record)
2021-2022: 45 goals (93 goals from the record)
2022-2033: 40 goals (53 goals from the record)
2023-2024: 35 goals (18 goals from the record)
2024-2025: 25 goals (finishes at seven ahead of Gretzky for 901 career goals!!!)

Does anyone really think Ovechkin is going to retire when he is less than 50 goals away? When he gets to less than 100 away, expect the media to ramp up the conversation even more. Ovi said he wants the record and I do not see him walking away once he starts getting real close. COVID may slow down the timeline but he will get there!

Thank you all for sharing your thoughts!!! I really appreciate it. I believe Ovechkin does regress over time. This what his season goal totals might look like with steady regression in goals:

2020-2021: 50 goals (138 goals from the record)
2021-2022: 45 goals (93 goals from the record)
2022-2033: 40 goals (53 goals from the record)
2023-2024: 35 goals (18 goals from the record)
2024-2025: 25 goals (finishes at seven ahead of Gretzky for 901 career goals!!!)

Does anyone really think Ovechkin is going to retire when he is less than 50 goals away? When he gets to less than 100 away, expect the media to ramp up the conversation even more. Ovi said he wants the record and I do not see him walking away once he starts getting real close. COVID may slow down the timeline but he will get there!
- Brian Sickles

It has more to do if you can play OV on the PP and at 15+ minutes a night to keep him close with players pushing him. He can be willing to play until 50 and he might be a 15g 30p guy at 45, but why have him when you can get a kid do it for league min? Same thing happened to Jagr. He could have still played, you couldn't tell me the Coyotes or somebody couldn't take him even at 400 years old as a 3rd liner...but he wants a few mil and they don't want him to take up a contract spot for potential prospects.

I love Ovechkin and I think he's already the greatest goal scorer of all time and easily the best player in the league throughout the duration of his entire career. He's a joy to watch and it's clear how much he loves this game.

Was super happy for him, when the Capitals won the cup!

I didn’t want to believe he could, but the math shows it’s possible considering he isn’t slowing down much. Covid might stop him, but he’s the kinda guy who can be very productive into his late 30s. Maybe 40.

I give it a coin flip. Maybe 60/40 that he does it.

He says he wants it, too. I believe he left gonna try like hell.

But he’s nowhere near Gretz for all time points. Gretz is still the Great One.

Could be that although I’m from Philly and a Flyers fan, I live in DC, and see a ton of Caps games. The man is still a force.

I’m not rooting for it. Im just being objective and totally see it as feasible

It has more to do if you can play OV on the PP and at 15+ minutes a night to keep him close with players pushing him. He can be willing to play until 50 and he might be a 15g 30p guy at 45, but why have him when you can get a kid do it for league min? Same thing happened to Jagr. He could have still played, you couldn't tell me the Coyotes or somebody couldn't take him even at 400 years old as a 3rd liner...but he wants a few mil and they don't want him to take up a contract spot for potential prospects.
- AdamFrench

Jagr was a mercenary. If he had never left Pittsburgh, he'd probably still be playing.

Ovechkin isn't just the best Capital of all time, he's the best Washington player from any sport of all time. If he can still play even a little bit, they'll let him play there until he doesn't want to anymore. Well, as long as he'll play for peanuts.

one of the best developments of covid
- KINGKENZO

Nope, he was screwed by shortened season, Covid but he’s still the best goal scorer, EVAH!

PS nothing good from Covid SMH!

Nope, he was screwed by shortened season, Covid but he’s still the best goal scorer, EVAH!

PS nothing good from Covid SMH!
- Justbecause

I think it depends in the next few years. He will extend with the caps for short periods. If he gets injured or production slows, he will defect to Moscow to finish off his career as he’s said. However, if he’s on track to a reasonable chance... he will tough it out to prove he’s the greatest pure goal scorer of all time. Yes, Gretzky May have had a few more years left. But his goal scoring prowess has long vanished and he was no longer the threat I see ovi to be until his shoulders give out.

GOAT???? NOT...

I just did some math. If Ovechkin scores goals over the rest of his career at the same pace that Gretzky did over the last 5 years of his career (0.251 goals per game, which is almost 21 goals per 82 games), it would take him 748 games to score 188 more goals.

I doubt he has that many games left in him, but it puts the scoring pace into perspective. Even if he scores at double Gretzky's final 5-year pace, you're looking at needing about 375 games.

I don't know about this one, guys, but I am sort of doubting it.

For this modern world who loves to put an * beside stats and championships, you should put one beside Gretzky's record after Ovi retired due to him being robbed of almost 2 full seasons due to lockouts and pandemics.

GOAT???? NOT...
- Nmbr1

Greatest goal scorer of all-time*

I just did some math. If Ovechkin scores goals over the rest of his career at the same pace that Gretzky did over the last 5 years of his career (0.251 goals per game, which is almost 21 goals per 82 games), it would take him 748 games to score 188 more goals.

I doubt he has that many games left in him, but it puts the scoring pace into perspective. Even if he scores at double Gretzky's final 5-year pace, you're looking at needing about 375 games.

I don't know about this one, guys, but I am sort of doubting it.
- SgtMikal

Thanks for the comment! Ovechkin is producing at a much higher rate compared to Gretzky's final years.

Ovechkin goals:
2017: 49
2018: 51
2019: 48

His 48 goals last year were scored in 68 games for a .705 goals/game ratio. This is the third-highest of his career. He showed little to no signs of slowing down so it is safe to assume he will be close to that goal scoring ratio again next season.

Ovi is incredible, but and this isn't a knock on him, he's also been incredibly durable. I don't want to hear "oh we missed 13 games this year", when some players miss 2-3 months at a time. poop happens. Be glad he's never had a concussion that cost him 2-3 months at a time.