Eklund: The Messed Up Vegas Odds to Win the Stanley Cup. Lets fix them. Buzz@1

Montreal would be my long shot

Eklund: The Messed Up Vegas Odds to Win the Stanley Cup. Lets fix them. Buzz@1
- Eklund

Detroit Red Wings. 1 billion to 1.

Two days ago you predicted Vegas and Washington not making the playoffs and today you have them in.

TOR ahead of teams that there's no way they should be. Ah, Canadian hockey media, you crack me up.

You can't argue odds with Vegas.

“New York Islanders 25/1
SHOULD BE: 12/1“

What are you smoking

Two days ago you predicted Vegas and Washington not making the playoffs and today you have them in.
- VANTEL

it's complicated

Worst is Philadelphia I hate all things Philly Every thing is corrupt

It is amazing how many people don't understand the simple concept of oddsmaking. Odds are not predictions of where a team will end up. They are about drawing betting interest and getting even money on both teams in a game or on the field, thus giving the house a better shot at guaranteed money.

Ek, it is amusing to watch you yap about the Vegas oddsmakers being wrong. These guys do this for a living and do it will, with lavish casinos to show for their winning ways. They will adjust these odds throughout the season to account for any abundance of wagers on teams or lack thereof, and, as always, will win in the long run. You will keep guessing at hockey stuff.

I still hate all things Philly A horrible place to live or visit

So yeah, that's not how this works.

Vegas odds aren't meant to be an accurate reflection of probabilities in reality. They are meant to try to encourage roughly equal betting on all possible options to guarantee a profit for the house after all winning bets are paid.

Furthermore, if you add up all the implied probabilities from the Vegas odds, you get ~125%, which means Vegas is expecting to make about a 20% profit in the end (i.e., they'll only pay out 4 dollars in winnings for every 5 they take on bets). If you add up all the implied probabilities from Ek's "book," you end up with about 153%, meaning a theoretical house edge of about 35%.

Vegas odds, by design, already overestimate the real probability of an event, and Ek's adjustments further increased the implied probability (and thus lowering the payout) for a staggering 21 out of 31 teams while reducing it (and increasing the payout) for just 7.

I'm not sure whether the point of Ek "adjusting the odds" was to have them better reflect reality or to make them more appealing to a gambler, but they actually fail miserably on both counts. If you want to know a team's "true" odds to win, Ek's numbers are an even greater overestimation than Vegas'. And if you wanted to actually gamble, Vegas' payouts are equal or better for 24 out of 31 teams.

Ek how can you have odds before power forward Mike Hoffman signs? He'll shift the balance of power himself.

Shades of Cam Neely...

Sorry Ek. But this doesn't make any sense. You just gave us your top 3 predictions of Washington and Vegas missing the playoffs. You then say Vegas having the Caps at 16/1 odds is too low. You would adjust to 14/1. Hmm, so on the one hand you have them missing the playoffs, but on the other hand you think Vegas isn't taking them serious enough. Care to explain?

Also, Tampa at 4/1. Nobody is going to bet on that. Winning a Cup isn't just based on talent, but also requires health and some luck. Tampa is not vastly better than all of these other teams. Vegas knows that if they set odds at 4/1 only fools would bet on that. So something like 7/1 will entice some action. But maybe you don't fully understand how Vegas actually makes money?

Also why did you adjust the tire-fire called Minnesota from 50/1 to 30/1? Guerin is dismantling the team and getting garbage in return. Their #1C will be a battle between Marcus Johansson, Nick Bonino, Victor Rask, and Nick Bjugstad. But for some reason you now have Minnesota with the same odds as Dallas, and better odds than Nashville, Montreal, Chicago.

you all still complain about EK and his post. and yet you still click

“New York Islanders 25/1
SHOULD BE: 12/1“

What are you smoking
- Blueshirts16

Have you seen the Sorokin youtube videos? 12/1 is generous. I'd go 7/1 to match Vegas who will probably miss the playoffs.

Ek how can you have odds before power forward Mike Hoffman signs? He'll shift the balance of power himself.

Shades of Cam Neely...


- gergeswillems

. The odds change on a regular basis when free agents sign, trades are made, key players are injured, etc..... This is what Vegas does.

you all still complain about EK and his post. and yet you still click
- nyislsbossy

. I don't always like what is posted on news sites but still click on them regularly. Information, entertainment. Part of everyday life.

TOR ahead of teams that there's no way they should be. Ah, Canadian hockey media, you crack me up.
- DeuceNine

. You don't seem to understand odds. They are not predictions about where a team will finish or which team will win a game.

Slim pickings topic wise over at hockeybuzz

you all still complain about EK and his post. and yet you still click
- nyislsbossy

And yet so do you. When you complain about people complaining.

So a couple of days ago the post says Vegas won't make the playoffs but today you say they should be 7:1 odds to win the cup?

Montreal, and as much as I hate to say it, the Rangers look like they might be interesting for a small wager.

One of those two could catch lightning in a bottle in a wacky season.

If the Rangers get big production from Shesty, a Calder performance from Lafreniere, and Kakko reaches his potential? Well, it’s 2020. Looking back at the past few years, I don’t expect much difference from 2021. stranger things have happened.

Two days ago you predicted Vegas and Washington not making the playoffs and today you have them in.
- VANTEL

These odds are not a prediction of the playoff field.