Theo Fox: Pyrrhic Victory
A look at how the Blackhawks' surprising growth this year impacts draft position and planning. Would it be a missed opportunity to not be in the draft lottery?

Theo Fox: Pyrrhic Victory
A look at how the Blackhawks' surprising growth this year impacts draft position and planning. Would it be a missed opportunity to not be in the draft lottery?
- Theo Fox

Deep thoughts by Theo Fox. That was a deep dive there. My concern is and will always be once the winning starts to get better for the playoff run you got to give to get. Do you not trade at the deadline if you think your team has a chance to win the Cup and you see a player who you think can really help your club get there?

In theory i really like your idea but then my fear is you become the Preds

Theo Fox: Pyrrhic Victory
A look at how the Blackhawks' surprising growth this year impacts draft position and planning. Would it be a missed opportunity to not be in the draft lottery?
- Theo Fox

Thanks Theo - I will be the first to ask - What does Pyrrhic mean?

The Chicago organization currently has a deep pool of Defenseman, and it reminded me of Anaheim years ago. They had a good pool of d prospects, and I recall all the talking heads stating that Bob Murray had assets to make trades. But I don't think Anaheim has taken advantage of those assets. I just hope that Stan and Co can make some solid moves, there is only so many slots to fill players, so they all can't play.

I can't speak for anyone else, but I am ready for a Savard/Chelios type trade, just so there is something new to get excited about.

Great analysis Theo. I think we have seen many examples of great players not being surrounded by a supporting cast leads to playoff disappointment. You can rack up a lot of points by regularly beating teams in the bottom half of the league that way, but when you play the cream of the crop, all 4 lines and all 6 D need to be hard workers and your goalie needs to upper third also.

The Hawks are getting close to being legit. Their defense is still a little weak, but I think they have the young players to fix that. It's going to take a little time though. They might slip into the playoffs this year if they can withstand the huge stretch of games to start March. They should be pretty solid in the playoffs next year. I think 2022-2023 they might return to contender status with all these young D having a couple seasons under their belts. That's assuming, of course, that they hold on to their top players and the young guys continue to develop and Kane is still around to lead the offense.

Thanks Theo - I will be the first to ask - What does Pyrrhic mean?

The Chicago organization currently has a deep pool of Defenseman, and it reminded me of Anaheim years ago. They had a good pool of d prospects, and I recall all the talking heads stating that Bob Murray had assets to make trades. But I don't think Anaheim has taken advantage of those assets. I just hope that Stan and Co can make some solid moves, there is only so many slots to fill players, so they all can't play.

I can't speak for anyone else, but I am ready for a Savard/Chelios type trade, just so there is something new to get excited about.
- powerenforcer

A Pyrrhic victory is a victory that inflicts such a devastating toll on the victor that it is tantamount to defeat. Winning a Pyrrhic victory takes a heavy toll that negates any true sense of achievement or damages long-term progress.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pyrrhic_victory

LAHawk posted (in the last blog) his conclusion (if I read it correctly) that the Hawks haven’t overachieved this season, using as evidence the individual performances of specific players.

I wouldn’t disagree with any of his conclusions, even his ultimate one: the Hawks are playing mostly even with the division, 8 extra!time games out of 19, winning half of those - only 5 wins in regulation, only 6 losses, 4-4 after 60 minutes. Nine wins out of 19 games. Pretty even.

LA’s individual analyses are right there, too. The “failures” of this team are team failures.

On offense - only 31 goals 5x5 inn19 games - not due to individual failures - but failures of the group - no transition game, because (by design or inattention) forwards don’t come back for the outlet pass and turnaround, which leads to poor neutral zone play; when they do get it in to the ozone, poor puck management and an inability to get inside the defense, leading to bad puck retrieval and the lack of pressure on the goalie.

On defense, again, poor puck management, turnovers, inability to clear (caused by forwards not being in position to receive the pass and turn the play around), passes and puck handling into pressure instead put out of it.

FOs are terrible, partially because the centers aren’t good at it, partially (mostly) because they don’t get the 50/50s (like they don’t win the contested board battles).

The individual skills seem to be there - Colliton and his staff need to figure out how to turn these talented skaters into a team.

Theo said, "Franchise players still need to be surrounded by a supporting cast who know how to win games."

There's no doubt about this. But the reverse is also true; a team with a good supporting cast isn't going to win without the high end players. I love Hagel, but you're not winning a Cup with 20 of him.

The model you propose, Theo, sounds nice but is unsustainable with a salary cap and free agency. There is a market out there that the Hawks have to live in. Once the team gets good, it will be because they have some high end players and a good supporting cast. How does another team emulate that quickly? By buying it. Teams will overpay guys; and play them over their skill level. Players you tell yourself you're not going to overpay will have market value set by the market.

We all have high hopes for Dach. Let's say he takes a big step up next year. We want and need that to happen, right. If he looks like he's a high end 1C, how do you propose not paying him like one? Or are you suggesting they trade their best players before they are UFA's?

It seems you're suggesting the Hawks handled 2009-2015 incorrectly. How do you think they should have handled thing differently? Let Toews and Kane walk? Trade them at 26?

As Dots pointed out, your model would not really allow the type of trades designed to help you win now. How do you explain to your team and fan base that you're not going for it when you have a chance to win?

LAHawk posted (in the last blog) his conclusion (if I read it correctly) that the Hawks haven’t overachieved this season, using as evidence the individual performances of specific players.

I wouldn’t disagree with any of his conclusions, even his ultimate one: the Hawks are playing mostly even with the division, 8 extra!time games out of 19, winning half of those - only 5 wins in regulation, only 6 losses, 4-4 after 60 minutes. Nine wins out of 19 games. Pretty even.

LA’s individual analyses are right there, too. The “failures” of this team are team failures.

On offense - only 31 goals 5x5 inn19 games - not due to individual failures - but failures of the group - no transition game, because (by design or inattention) forwards don’t come back for the outlet pass and turnaround, which leads to poor neutral zone play; when they do get it in to the ozone, poor puck management and an inability to get inside the defense, leading to bad puck retrieval and the lack of pressure on the goalie.

On defense, again, poor puck management, turnovers, inability to clear (caused by forwards not being in position to receive the pass and turn the play around), passes and puck handling into pressure instead put out of it.

FOs are terrible, partially because the centers aren’t good at it, partially (mostly) because they don’t get the 50/50s (like they don’t win the contested board battles).

The individual skills seem to be there - Colliton and his staff need to figure out how to turn these talented skaters into a team.
- StLBravesFan

What's the evidence for the bolded? If the problem is 5 on 5 scoring, who are the hidden scorers who are not producing?

What's the evidence for the bolded? If the problem is 5 on 5 scoring, who are the hidden scorers who are not producing?
- mohel

Well Sikura for starters. Idk, but to me you take out your 2 best centers and it’s not a shocker they aren’t excelling at 5v5.

I get that the events that led us here are going to create questions for next season and beyond, depending on how Dach heals and hopefully grows into a bigger role or if hopefully Toews is able to come back in his usual good form.

Had those 2 been here though, other guys would have slotted into more natural roles and by virtue created more depth.

Even with those 2, not saying the Hawks would be contenders but you could make a better case for them being an actual playoff team this season.

Well Theo, which came first the chicken or the egg? Either scenario is very difficult to sustain and you don't necessarily have a choice which scenario you fall into. A top heavy team for sure doesn't work long term. Without bridge deals you can't build a team fast enough before your players get too expensive to keep building (see Edmonton and Toronto).

Since 2013, it's apparent as more teams maxed their salary caps, GM's surely pushed by owners have overpaid for the "middle of the league" and not simply the top, making it impossible to put 18 solid players out there on the roster. I propose the "solid team top to bottom (offense, defense and goalie) void of superstars is a 'unicorn,' good luck with that!" How many World Series have the Oakland A's and KC Royals won the last 40 years? I think one? Add in the Pirates and Reds, still one? There will always be the "face of the franchise" player(s), for marketing if for no other reason a team overpays in order not to lose that player(s). Trade Walter Payton?

In today's league I have mentioned a few times, Kane and Toews would not have taken the $6M bridge deals. Under the "not overpaying for top players scenario," there is no cup in '13 as well as '15. Probably not a cup in '10 because Hossa is never signed unless you believe the two players you can sign by not signing Hossa put you over the top? I can't prove that wrong but I doubt it.

Hard to argue with paying to keep "Sid the kid."

What's the evidence for the bolded? If the problem is 5 on 5 scoring, who are the hidden scorers who are not producing?
- mohel

My eyes provide the evidence, mostly. The numbers are bad (in goals, in possession stats, in SCF / HDSCF / xGF, etc.), but my eyes see skills in most of the rookies (altho all still need development, they are showing big-league skills), in most of the vets (even those who will likely never score another goal are showing that they can drive possession - in fact, the fourth line may be the best at that).

Evidence (altho limited) is in the two OT GWGs that were scored with rookies (plus Kubalik on one) one the ice.

My eyes also see the TOs, caused by bad passing, bad receiving, bad decisions, bad spacing, bad puck support up and down the lineup in both ends plus the middle.

My eyes also see an inability to set up in the ozone, which leads to a lack of net front presence - you need time to get to the net after entering the zone, but one-and-ones don’t give you that time.

My eyes see that skills are there - and if they can get to a “5 for 1 and 1 for 5” method of playing in all three zones, the goals will come. May not be objective evidence - ok - that’s what I see.

https://chicago.suntimes....__twitter_impression=true

Well Sikura for starters. Idk, but to me you take out your 2 best centers and it’s not a shocker they aren’t excelling at 5v5.

I get that the events that led us here are going to create questions for next season and beyond, depending on how Dach heals and hopefully grows into a bigger role or if hopefully Toews is able to come back in his usual good form.

Had those 2 been here though, other guys would have slotted into more natural roles and by virtue created more depth.

Even with those 2, not saying the Hawks would be contenders but you could make a better case for them being an actual playoff team this season.
- HawkintheD

In addition, perhaps the transition from defense to offense would be much better. High level centers help in that area.

Perhaps I misunderstood, but it seems Sage was saying they have the talent to score more 5 on 5. I'm not sure how we know at this point if the team struggles 5 on 5 more because of talent, or systems/coaching.

My eyes provide the evidence, mostly. The numbers are bad (in goals, in possession stats, in SCF / HDSCF / xGF, etc.), but my eyes see skills in most of the rookies (altho all still need development, they are showing big-league skills), in most of the vets (even those who will likely never score another goal are showing that they can drive possession - in fact, the fourth line may be the best at that).

1. Evidence (altho limited) is in the two OT GWGs that were scored with rookies (plus Kubalik on one) one the ice.

2. My eyes also see the TOs, caused by bad passing, bad receiving, bad decisions, bad spacing, bad puck support up and down the lineup in both ends plus the middle.

3. My eyes also see an inability to set up in the ozone, which leads to a lack of net front presence - you need time to get to the net after entering the zone, but one-and-ones don’t give you that time.

4. My eyes see that skills are there - and if they can get to a “5 for 1 and 1 for 5” method of playing in all three zones, the goals will come. May not be objective evidence - ok - that’s what I see.
- StLBravesFan

#1 - this was 3 on 3, where there's lots of room. It shows they can make plays when it's not crowded. Isn't the ability to do so in tighter areas at least partially talent-based?

#2 & 3 - this has to somewhat talent related, or else even a caveman could do it.

#4 - I agree that the 5 on 5 offense is a bit offensive. I believe it could be because the Hawks aren't as talented as the other team in many matchups.

I like what this team has done so far this year. Now some of the younger players might start feeling the grind more and we will be playing better competition. It will be interesting to see if this team and certain individuals performances dive, fade, regress or continues to improve and hold their own.

Right now we need to make every decision based on where we want to be after the 22/23 season. At worst it looks like we will have a lot of depth players, but not many "elite" NHL type players. If that is the case after 22/23 they should have the cap space to sign a very high end free agent or two. Best case is that you have a pretty good top 6 (Kane, ADB, Dach, Reichel, maybe Kurashev/Suter/Janmark), a 2 pretty good pairings (Mitchell, Beaudin, Boqvist, Kalynuk or others in college or playing elsewhere now), and an very good #1 goalie (Lankinen) and some cap room to add as needed.

In addition, perhaps the transition from defense to offense would be much better. High level centers help in that area.

Perhaps I misunderstood, but it seems Sage was saying they have the talent to score more 5 on 5. I'm not sure how we know at this point if the team struggles 5 on 5 more because of talent, or systems/coaching.
- mohel

Well, I was more talking about the overall Blackhawks' play, but as to scoring / driving scoring:

Kane, AdB, Kubalik have scored big in the show (altho Kubalik still needs to show that he isn't a one-hit wonder).

Suter, Kurashev, Janmark have scored this season, and my eyes see "scoring skills" (altho Janmark, like Kubalik, still needs to show...).

Dach should - probably will come back and be a scorer or driver; Toews maybe will - possibly will come back the same.

Hagel has scored in other places, altho he may be Sikura. Hagel, along with Kampf, Highmore, Soderberg can at least drive possession, if not actually score goals.

And I'm not including Strome (who has scored at a 20-goal pace in several seasons) or Nylander (who hasn't).

I think there's enough three-zone talent there to be an effective offensive threat, if Colliton and the staff can get them to play a responsible team game.

To many soft European players on this club.

To many soft European players on this club.

To many soft European players on this club.

To many soft European players on this club.

I hear there's a lot of soft Euro players on this club.....

To many soft European players on this club.
- Shady1962

Grapes? That you?

To many soft European players on this club.
- Shady1962

Please elaborate and explain.

To many soft European players on this club.
- Shady1962
I’m not sure about that, Suter and Kurashev seem to go to the dirty areas. Up front we have Kane with super high end talent and Dcat and Kubalik I would say have high end talent, but at this time that’s it, and there lies the issue with 5 on 5 scoring, we need more high end talent. If and when Dach and Toews come back, that will add two more forwards to the talent base, we still need one or two more talented forwards, preferably one(s) with speed and size, so basically Perlini with a brain and hands.

Please elaborate and explain.
- Chunk

Euros are all soft. They are known for it. Although, I will NOT be the one to suggest this to a member of the British SAS. Somehow, they are tough.

The Hammer and Freddie Kruger are Euros. Evidence suggests they are far from soft.