Theo Fox: Who's Missing Who A look at whether certain Blackhawks players would be missed if the team parted ways with them and who their replacements would be.

Plus, a look at the most recent Euro signing in goalie Arvid Soderblom.

Thanks for the blog, Theo.

As an aside, I know 7 games is a small sample, but isn’t it a bit unfair to say that Cale Morris has been meh also? In his first taste of pro hockey, his numbers are significantly better than any other Rockford goalkeeper this year, not by a small amount. And considering he posted very good numbers throughout his career at Notre Dame, I am looking forward to see more of him next year in Rockford. He may still turn out to be meh, for sure, but I’d say he earned another good look.

(edited: Notre Dame, not North Dakota)

The problem with trade conjectures is -if some of those guys are so replaceable (and I am not in any way arguing the point that they're not) ... why would other teams want to make those trades?

I'm thinking of guys like Carpenter and Connolly, also Delia. I can't imagine there is much if any market for any of them, so I wouldn't expect all that much (to say the least) in any return on those guys.

Kampf: I’m in the “keep him rather than lose him” kamp(f). Good defensive center (Hawks don’t have many of those, even with Toews), good FO taker and pretty good possession stats with 62% dzone starts this season, takeaway-giveaway ratio is very good….26, you need players like him, too.

Nylander: Hagel is excellent, really showed he could play up and down the lineup, and is certainly the better player today - but Nylander’s high-end potential is still there. They have replacements for Nylander the way he HAS played - they don’t have one for the way he COULD / SHOULD play.

Goalie: If Lankinen we’re to go down for any length of time, neither Delia nor Subban has shown the ability to play well for more than two or three games. Neither has even proven able to be a 30 games backup. In 16 games, Subban gave up more than three in seven - he had one really good three-game stretch in February, that was about it. I wouldn’t like to see one backing up the other for any number of multiple games.

I’d like them to keep Gaudette and Hinostroza, but they’re replaceable.

Of all the people you listed I think they are all exposed in the expansion draft except for Keith (NMC), Murphy (has trade value now, but I would wait until the young guys get a little more experience), Gaudette (deserves a longer look), Nylander (most probably will disappoint, but his ceiling is high if he plays with some purpose). Everyone else.....meh, replaceable either with someone currently in the organization or a low priced short term UFA. The wild cards are the EU free agents Okulov and Zhafyarov and draftee Shalunov.

It should be an interesting off season. Subtractions could be as interesting as additions. One way or another can Bowman move deHaan, Z, Strome, Carp, Delia? That is $11 mil in cap space. Even if the return is late round picks or prospects that will never see the NHL, just getting the cap space has value.

Soderblom is another nice signing.

June 2nd is the draft lottery date. Less than 3 weeks away.

Bettman Cup Standings (biggest loser - Pts/GP) and draft order
1) 0.661 Sabres
2) 0.768 Ducks
3) .........Kraken
4) 0.804 Devils
5) 0.857 Jackets (12 wins in regulation)
6) 0.857 Wings (16 wins in regulation)
7) 0.865 Canucks (4 games remaining,@Oilers,@Flames,Flames,Flames)
8) 0.875 Sharks (15 wins in regulation)
9) 0.875 Kings (19 wins in regulation)
10) 0.911 Sens
11) 0.962 Flames (3 games remaining, @Canucks, @Canucks, Canucks)
---) ------ Yotes (forfeited their pick)
12) 0.982 Hawks
13) 1.036 Flyers
14) 1.071 Stars (17 wins in regulation)
15) 1.071 Rangers (24 wins in regulation)

Go Flames!!! If they can take 2 of three from the Canucks their number would be 0.982. Same as the Hawks. But they would have 22 wins in regulation to the Hawks 15. So the Hawks would be before them in the draft order (pending the lottery).

Stick tap to the Sens and Wings. I think their seasons, like the Hawks, were well above expectations.

Of the teams contending for the Bettman Cup which teams have better rosters/prospects or a brighter future than the Hawks?

Kampf: I’m in the “keep him rather than lose him” kamp(f). Good defensive center (Hawks don’t have many of those, even with Toews), good FO taker and pretty good possession stats with 62% dzone starts this season, takeaway-giveaway ratio is very good….26, you need players like him, too.

Nylander: Hagel is excellent, really showed he could play up and down the lineup, and is certainly the better player today - but Nylander’s high-end potential is still there. They have replacements for Nylander the way he HAS played - they don’t have one for the way he COULD / SHOULD play.

Goalie: If Lankinen we’re to go down for any length of time, neither Delia nor Subban has shown the ability to play well for more than two or three games. Neither has even proven able to be a 30 games backup. In 16 games, Subban gave up more than three in seven - he had one really good three-game stretch in February, that was about it. I wouldn’t like to see one backing up the other for any number of multiple games.

I’d like them to keep Gaudette and Hinostroza, but they’re replaceable.
- StLBravesFan

Agree on Kampf and Nylander. But I would not protect Kampf. I would protect Nylander. I am higher on Gaudette (24yo). I think he has more upside potential. I would protect him. I like Hino (27yo), but I would not protect him and if I signed him it would be cheap and short term.

Agree on Kampf and Nylander. But I would not protect Kampf. I would protect Nylander. I am higher on Gaudette (24yo). I think he has more upside potential. I would protect him. I like Hino (27yo), but I would not protect him and if I signed him it would be cheap and short term.
- -Doh-

I agree with you on the “protection” list - my post was not made with that list in mind, just general comments on the skaters.

I’ll wait until I see the “official” list coming from Bowman, et.al…THEN I’ll complain about it, no matter WHO is on it.

Today @ 8:55 AM ET
Of all the people you listed I think they are all exposed in the expansion draft except for Keith (NMC), Murphy (has trade value now, but I would wait until the young guys get a little more experience), Gaudette (deserves a longer look), Nylander (most probably will disappoint, but his ceiling is high if he plays with some purpose). Everyone else.....meh, replaceable either with someone currently in the organization or a low priced short term UFA. The wild cards are the EU free agents Okulov and Zhafyarov and draftee Shalunov.

It should be an interesting off season. Subtractions could be as interesting as additions. One way or another can Bowman move deHaan, Z, Strome, Carp, Delia? That is $11 mil in cap space. Even if the return is late round picks or prospects that will never see the NHL, just getting the cap space has value.

Soderblom is another nice signing.

June 2nd is the draft lottery date. Less than 3 weeks away.

Doh

Why is cap space so valuable? You have at least $10 mil. of cap space with Seabrook and Shaw going on LTIR. Minus those, they have $66 mil. on the books, so if they lose nobody, they still will need $5 mil. additional to fully used the $10mil. of LTIR on day one. Even if you need more, you can still put one or the other on LTIR before the season, but that money won't accrue for deadline deals at the TDL.

2 years from now they have only $47mil. committed in salary.

I don't see the Hawks going for any bid dollar free agents this year, and they will have enough cap space at the TDL to take on a bad contract and get back a good draft pick. I also don't see teams giving up their top RFA's to get under cap space, they will give up their drech. I don't see the Hawks tradeable assets as bringing in a high draft pick, unless they decide that Kubalik will want too much after this year and they will trade him early.

Hawks are not like 2 years ago and at the beginning of last year. They have quite a few young players that will need to play to determine if they are keepers or not. Hawks next year have all their draft choices and an extra third rounder. Just to use cap space for a Brett Connolly type at the beginning of this year does not make sense to me.

Now watch Stan do that the day after the playoffs end.

Theo, great addition of the play-by-play guy. Do they just let Foley keep going until he's says he's done, or do they cut him out early?

Tomkins - shine's off that penny, huh? I think you had him as a dark horse to surprise at the beginning of the year. I didn't get to see any Icehog games this year, but it's funny how one year can put a sour taste in you mouth.

Vlasic - just curious why you think Vlasic would need 1-2 years in the AHL when guys like Kalynuk, and Mitchell were able to step in and at least keep up in the NHL? Is Vlasic that far behind those two in development, or is it still that he has to figure out how to play with his size?

[quote=-Doh-]Bettman Cup Standings (biggest loser - Pts/GP) and draft order
1) 0.661 Sabres
2) 0.768 Ducks
3) .........Kraken
4) 0.804 Devils
5) 0.857 Jackets (12 wins in regulation)
6) 0.857 Wings (16 wins in regulation)
7) 0.865 Canucks (4 games remaining,@Oilers,@Flames,Flames,Flames)
8) 0.875 Sharks (15 wins in regulation)
9) 0.875 Kings (19 wins in regulation)
10) 0.911 Sens
11) 0.962 Flames (3 games remaining, @Canucks, @Canucks, Canucks)
---) ------ Yotes (forfeited their pick)
12) 0.982 Hawks
13) 1.036 Flyers
14) 1.071 Stars (17 wins in regulation)
15) 1.071 Rangers (24 wins in regulation)

Go Flames!!!

You have stepped into my world now...before coming here, I was on the NHL site to verify that in the first time in Playoff history, non playoff teams will be finishing the regular schedule at the same time.

and looking just when the flames games were scheduled and If they were being played...

I think the interesting thing is who gets protected strome or gaudette as forwards unless Toews waives. If I was the hawks I would ask. there is no way in 6 weeks they are going to know if Teows is going to play again or not. has a 10.5 mil cap hit and 4mil signing bonus due first day or the new year and 6.9 total each of the last 2 years. Seatlle would never take him. I think its 40/60 he ever plays again at best.

so in the past we have only done in season LTIR were you get as close to the cap and then day 1 you put a player on LTIR and you accrue it during the year. off season LTIR does not accrue but you can use it in the off season. So what he says is they will probably do 1 of Seabs or shaw as off season and use it during UFA season or to take a player from another team that needs to shed cap or wants to trade a player that is going to be exposed in the EXP draft and the other will go on LTIR day 1 so they have some flexibility. we also have 2 open retention slots after this year. maybe we can retain on dehaan at 2.4 for 1 year he is a pretty good 6-7 D for a good team and then they probably flip him at the TDL to a playoff team with injuries.

ithe only UFA that makes any sense on a longer deal would be hamilton that I can see if he does not resign with caroliina were else would be a good fit? or 1 year deals on guys that overpriced themselves and are avlaibaible 5-6 days into UFA.
super interesting off season coming up. Stan had a good off season last year and a good TDL. last year the good, SUTER, Kalynuk, janmark. I have never been a huge stan supporter but I do wonder now that MCD is gone I have not really disliked any moves. woudl probably moved strome last off-season and Zad at the deadline but thats in hindsight. I dont think anybody thought strome would have this bad or a year with teows and Dach out. and maybe the offers for ZAD were nothing. he did metion the market was all over the place. look what we got for janmark and higmore compared to soderberg

Theo, great addition of the play-by-play guy. Do they just let Foley keep going until he's says he's done, or do they cut him out early?

Tomkins - shine's off that penny, huh? I think you had him as a dark horse to surprise at the beginning of the year. I didn't get to see any Icehog games this year, but it's funny how one year can put a sour taste in you mouth.

Vlasic - just curious why you think Vlasic would need 1-2 years in the AHL when guys like Kalynuk, and Mitchell were able to step in and at least keep up in the NHL? Is Vlasic that far behind those two in development, or is it still that he has to figure out how to play with his size?
- Chunk

It's a little of both. He started very slow his freshman year at BU, but made huge strides (no pun intended) as a soph. You have to also take into consideration that if he signs after his Jr. year, he will be 20, a year younger than Mitchell at 21 and Kalynuk at 23 when they signed out of college.

Kampf: I’m in the “keep him rather than lose him” kamp(f). Good defensive center (Hawks don’t have many of those, even with Toews), good FO taker and pretty good possession stats with 62% dzone starts this season, takeaway-giveaway ratio is very good….26, you need players like him, too.

Nylander: Hagel is excellent, really showed he could play up and down the lineup, and is certainly the better player today - but Nylander’s high-end potential is still there. They have replacements for Nylander the way he HAS played - they don’t have one for the way he COULD / SHOULD play.

Goalie: If Lankinen we’re to go down for any length of time, neither Delia nor Subban has shown the ability to play well for more than two or three games. Neither has even proven able to be a 30 games backup. In 16 games, Subban gave up more than three in seven - he had one really good three-game stretch in February, that was about it. I wouldn’t like to see one backing up the other for any number of multiple games.

I’d like them to keep Gaudette and Hinostroza, but they’re replaceable.
- StLBravesFan

I’m with you on Kampf. While his offensive abilities seem to be near zero even as a junior aged player and it makes me crazy that he’s a player where offense goes to die he is pretty good defensively. Defensively he plays his position properly, he doesn’t cheat by leaving the zone too early. Of course if he did cheat he’d only disappoint us and himself with futile offensive forays. But he is one of the few who makes a strong effort to dedicate himself to looking after the defensive part of the game. And many of the fans screaming for the hawks to unload him are the same ones screaming that the hawks defense sucks and that the Hawk forwards don’t provide any support in the defensive zone. Kampf is what he is and until a better fourth line defensive forward, hopefully with a bit of a scoring touch is developed the hawks may as well keep him.

I think the interesting thing is who gets protected strome or gaudette as forwards unless Toews waives. If I was the hawks I would ask. there is no way in 6 weeks they are going to know if Teows is going to play again or not. has a 10.5 mil cap hit and 4mil signing bonus due first day or the new year and 6.9 total each of the last 2 years. Seatlle would never take him. I think its 40/60 he ever plays again at best.

so in the past we have only done in season LTIR were you get as close to the cap and then day 1 you put a player on LTIR and you accrue it during the year. off season LTIR does not accrue but you can use it in the off season. So what he says is they will probably do 1 of Seabs or shaw as off season and use it during UFA season or to take a player from another team that needs to shed cap or wants to trade a player that is going to be exposed in the EXP draft and the other will go on LTIR day 1 so they have some flexibility. we also have 2 open retention slots after this year. maybe we can retain on dehaan at 2.4 for 1 year he is a pretty good 6-7 D for a good team and then they probably flip him at the TDL to a playoff team with injuries.

ithe only UFA that makes any sense on a longer deal would be hamilton that I can see if he does not resign with caroliina were else would be a good fit? or 1 year deals on guys that overpriced themselves and are avlaibaible 5-6 days into UFA.
super interesting off season coming up. Stan had a good off season last year and a good TDL. last year the good, SUTER, Kalynuk, janmark. I have never been a huge stan supporter but I do wonder now that MCD is gone I have not really disliked any moves. woudl probably moved strome last off-season and Zad at the deadline but thats in hindsight. I dont think anybody thought strome would have this bad or a year with teows and Dach out. and maybe the offers for ZAD were nothing. he did metion the market was all over the place. look what we got for janmark and higmore compared to soderberg
- kmw4631

Based on what inside information did you come up with this ratio? The Hawks would never ask Toews to waive, and they really don't have a need to. They are not really in danger of losing anyone that would be deemed critical going forward. Whether its Strome, Nylander, Gaudette, Hinostroza or whomever it really doesn't rock the boat much.

I’m with you on Kampf. While his offensive abilities seem to be near zero even as a junior aged player and it makes me crazy that he’s a player where offense goes to die he is pretty good defensively. Defensively he plays his position properly, he doesn’t cheat by leaving the zone too early. Of course if he did cheat he’d only disappoint us and himself with futile offensive forays. But he is one of the few who makes a strong effort to dedicate himself to looking after the defensive part of the game. And many of the fans screaming for the hawks to unload him are the same ones screaming that the hawks defense sucks and that the Hawk forwards don’t provide any support in the defensive zone. Kampf is what he is and until a better fourth line defensive forward, hopefully with a bit of a scoring touch is developed the hawks may as well keep him.
- paulr

No problems with Kampf as a 4th line center and penalty killer. I don't even mind if he comes in to take critical faceoffs and then leave the ice. But playing him regular minutes on anything but the 4th line is just a great big NO. It's really almost pointless to have him on the ice with players like Kane, Kubalik, etc. The is no need to protect him in the expansion draft, likelihood of him being taken is almost zero. Resign him, but don't do something stupid and give him a contract like the last one given to Kruger.

It's a little of both. He started very slow his freshman year at BU, but made huge strides (no pun intended) as a soph. You have to also take into consideration that if he signs after his Jr. year, he will be 20, a year younger than Mitchell at 21 and Kalynuk at 23 when they signed out of college.
- TheTrob

Thanks Trob. I should have looked that up first. I'm definitely encouraged that he has shown some positive progression. If he could turn into even a Tyler Myers type, I think that would be a big win.

Kampf: I’m in the “keep him rather than lose him” kamp(f). Good defensive center (Hawks don’t have many of those, even with Toews), good FO taker and pretty good possession stats with 62% dzone starts this season, takeaway-giveaway ratio is very good….26, you need players like him, too.

Nylander: Hagel is excellent, really showed he could play up and down the lineup, and is certainly the better player today - but Nylander’s high-end potential is still there. They have replacements for Nylander the way he HAS played - they don’t have one for the way he COULD / SHOULD play.

Goalie: If Lankinen we’re to go down for any length of time, neither Delia nor Subban has shown the ability to play well for more than two or three games. Neither has even proven able to be a 30 games backup. In 16 games, Subban gave up more than three in seven - he had one really good three-game stretch in February, that was about it. I wouldn’t like to see one backing up the other for any number of multiple games.

I’d like them to keep Gaudette and Hinostroza, but they’re replaceable.
- StLBravesFan

Totally agree!

Based on what inside information did you come up with this ratio? The Hawks would never ask Toews to waive, and they really don't have a need to. They are not really in danger of losing anyone that would be deemed critical going forward. Whether its Strome, Nylander, Gaudette, Hinostroza or whomever it really doesn't rock the boat much.
- TheTrob

Hino is a UFA so you do not need to do anything with him. Nylander is almost for sure 1 of the 7 forwards and that would leave 1 spot of either gaudette or strome.

the reason I say 40/60 is every is still using the word hope. and time will tell how many players come back from that when the GM coach and teammates say that after 7-8 months in there early 30's. 40% is probably high. what is his incentive to come back as well. he has had concussion issues and now some type of chronic long term fatigue or worse. hawks need to use every asset at there disposal and if teows is willing to waive and they have a spot for both gaudette and strome they could use that to help strome's trade value. maybe you tell the Krak we will trade you strome for nothing if you select dehaan. Maybe there is a really good young forward that is going to be exposed by someone else and you can trade for him at less value since they are going to lose him anyway. the asked Seabs to waive? would you tell stan to not do that?

With all this chatter about who the Hawks protect I wanted to verify when protection lists need to be submitted.

Protection lists must be submitted by July 17, ahead of the July 21 expansion draft.

As mentioned before, many of us agree that any player that the Hawks expose won't be missed and there is probably a player in the system already who can take their place. I think Theo's blog solidifies that. No need to negotiate with Seattle to entice them to take or not take someone.

I'm more curious about any teams out there that are not sitting so well.

Theo, great addition of the play-by-play guy. Do they just let Foley keep going until he's says he's done, or do they cut him out early?

Tomkins - shine's off that penny, huh? I think you had him as a dark horse to surprise at the beginning of the year. I didn't get to see any Icehog games this year, but it's funny how one year can put a sour taste in you mouth.

Vlasic - just curious why you think Vlasic would need 1-2 years in the AHL when guys like Kalynuk, and Mitchell were able to step in and at least keep up in the NHL? Is Vlasic that far behind those two in development, or is it still that he has to figure out how to play with his size?
- Chunk

I would hardly call them effective NHL D-men that you can win with. More like "trial by fire."

I would hardly call them effective NHL D-men that you can win with. More like "trial by fire."
- rpeters01

That's why I didn't use the word effective. I said they could keep up. My comment was not related to the fitness of our young D for playing regular minutes in the NHL. It was strictly related to Vlasic's readiness compared to Kalynuk and Mitchell after what I thought was the same amount of collegiate experience.

if it comes down to seattle taking gaudette kampf or stillman my guess is they take gaudette. He mentions Suter or Kurashev as replacements but wouldnt or roster be stronger if those guys were on the 3/4th line and bump out carpenter. he also mentions barrett but then we take a step back if we run out a ton of rookies again.
gaudette is one year removed from 33 pts in 59 games that would have put him 4th on this team and has finally figured out his diet. assuming teows does not play and strome is not back.

nylander-suter-kane
cat-dach-kubalik
gaudette-borgstrom-shalunov
hagel-kampf-kurashev
conelly

if it comes down to seattle taking gaudette kampf or stillman my guess is they take gaudette. He mentions Suter or Kurashev as replacements but wouldnt or roster be stronger if those guys were on the 3/4th line and bump out carpenter. he also mentions barrett but then we take a step back if we run out a ton of rookies again.
gaudette is one year removed from 33 pts in 59 games that would have put him 4th on this team and has finally figured out his diet. assuming teows does not play and strome is not back.

nylander-suter-kane
cat-dach-kubalik
gaudette-borgstrom-shalunov
hagel-kampf-kurashev
conelly
- kmw4631

Come ooooooooooooon de Haan!

Thanks Trob. I should have looked that up first. I'm definitely encouraged that he has shown some positive progression. If he could turn into even a Tyler Myers type, I think that would be a big win.
- Chunk

No Problem, my son is one of the Athletic Trainers at BU (and played Hockey when he was in school there)