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Forums :: Blog World :: Ryan Wilson: Game time myths, matchups, and more
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Ryan Wilson
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Rochester, NY
Joined: 06.13.2013

May 14 @ 11:28 AM ET
Ryan Wilson: Game time myths, matchups, and more Game time myths, matchups, and more
coohill
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Louisville, CO
Joined: 03.15.2007

May 14 @ 11:30 AM ET
First
MattStrat
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: ...serial abuser...and misuser...of the ellipsis , NF
Joined: 12.12.2014

May 14 @ 11:40 AM ET
Has there been any more news on Geno and what he's up to since the non-participant in scrimmage debacle?
Barnaby36
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Former Orpik44
Joined: 02.22.2013

May 14 @ 11:46 AM ET
Tough series. We have to be patient and we'll be fine.
Barnaby36
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Former Orpik44
Joined: 02.22.2013

May 14 @ 11:48 AM ET
Has there been any more news on Geno and what he's up to since the non-participant in scrimmage debacle?
- MattStrat

Good to go and ready to enter MACHINO mode.
DeflatedPucks
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: NYC, NY
Joined: 04.29.2016

May 14 @ 12:03 PM ET
Ryan Wilson: Game time myths, matchups, and more
Game time myths, matchups, and more

- Ryan_Wilson

Victoro311
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: San Diego, CA
Joined: 06.17.2014

May 14 @ 12:18 PM ET
Well Boyde, looks like my prediction about the ZAR blog was wrong haha.
Victoro311
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: San Diego, CA
Joined: 06.17.2014

May 14 @ 12:27 PM ET
Everyone knows I'm a huge advocate of getting Sid away from the Bergeron line if we match up against the Bruins. I took a look at Natural Stat Trick's line tool for the Sid-Guentzel duo against the Pulock-Pelech pairing and I don't think Sullivan needs to worry about this too much.

Sid and G v. Pulock & Pelech at 5v5 in 2020-2021:
GP: 8
TOI: 70:45
CF%: 47.93
GF: 4
GA: 1
xGF: 51.21
HDCF%: 55.56

Raw possession is mediocre, but they're comfortably generating high danger chances and they've eaten the pairing alive in tangible results. From the stats that I posted the other day, seems to me like playing Sid and G against Barzal has a bigger effect than playing them against this pairing. I say throw Crosby and G at Pulock & Pelech without hesitation and let them do their thing and let our scoring depth feed on the easier assignments.
MattStrat
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: ...serial abuser...and misuser...of the ellipsis , NF
Joined: 12.12.2014

May 14 @ 12:27 PM ET
Well Boyde, looks like my prediction about the ZAR blog was wrong haha.
- Victoro311


I meant to respond to you about that yesterday haha. Certainly wasnt far fetched hahah
PghPens668771
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 11.26.2013

May 14 @ 12:30 PM ET
That is bad news about DeSmith. It sounds like he will be out for a more extended period of time . Hopefully Jarry can hold the fort and doesn't get injured. I don't want to see Lagace play in the playoffs.
Grinder47
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Somerset, PA
Joined: 10.20.2013

May 14 @ 12:47 PM ET
Here’s to hoping my tournament team doesn’t make the final game on Sunday at noon. If we do it certainly won’t be my fault.
j.boyd919
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Tampa, FL
Joined: 06.14.2011

May 14 @ 12:48 PM ET
Well Boyde, looks like my prediction about the ZAR blog was wrong haha.
- Victoro311


He saw the comment and didn't do it out of spite. He saved it for a later date (ie: offseason) Just wait. It'll come.
MattStrat
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: ...serial abuser...and misuser...of the ellipsis , NF
Joined: 12.12.2014

May 14 @ 12:56 PM ET
Here’s to hoping my tournament team doesn’t make the final game on Sunday at noon. If we do it certainly won’t be my fault.
- Grinder47


hahaha...legs solidifying yet?
Victoro311
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: San Diego, CA
Joined: 06.17.2014

May 14 @ 12:57 PM ET
Here’s to hoping my tournament team doesn’t make the final game on Sunday at noon. If we do it certainly won’t be my fault.
- Grinder47

Grinder out here throwing games.
Shady1962
Joined: 02.06.2021

May 14 @ 1:33 PM ET
Don't forget about the home Ice advantage myth! No distinct advantage for the home team, It's a tired and old narrative for the TV talking heads who run out of things to talk about.
Rinosaur
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Somewhere, NJ
Joined: 01.21.2016

May 14 @ 1:40 PM ET
Well Boyde, looks like my prediction about the ZAR blog was wrong haha.
- Victoro311


What was your ZAR prediction?
Victoro311
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: San Diego, CA
Joined: 06.17.2014

May 14 @ 1:40 PM ET
Don't forget about the home Ice advantage myth! No distinct advantage for the home team, It's a tired and old narrative for the TV talking heads who run out of things to talk about.
- Shady1962

Home ice is probably difficult to quantify since home vs. away wins probably even out over the course of the playoffs since higher seeded teams typically win off virtue of being the better teams. The best way to quantify home ice effect is probably to examine the rates at which lower seed upsets happen at home vs. away, and even that is would probably be incredibly imperfect.

What I'm saying is that the better team wins more often than not. Impossible to measure how much more home ice made the better team win. Difficult to tell when home ice was a factor between two more evenly matched teams. Maybe its goal rates that should be looked at instead of wins? Overall, probably unquantifiable.
Victoro311
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: San Diego, CA
Joined: 06.17.2014

May 14 @ 1:42 PM ET
What was your ZAR prediction?
- Rinosaur

RW was in the mentions of that Jesse Marshal tweet about ZAR I posted last blog asking why Sullivan doesn't match them up against Bergeron. I said the next blog would be a copy and paste of that Jesse tweet then a couple of paragraphs of RW rephrasing his question over and over again followed by a "Thanks for reading!"

If we make it past the Isles and see the B's, I bet we see that blog happen before or after Game 1.
Rinosaur
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Somewhere, NJ
Joined: 01.21.2016

May 14 @ 1:47 PM ET
RW was in the mentions of that Jesse Marshal tweet about ZAR I posted last blog asking why Sullivan doesn't match them up against Bergeron. I said the next blog would be a copy and paste of that Jesse tweet then a couple of paragraphs of RW rephrasing his question over and over again followed by a "Thanks for reading!"

If we make it past the Isles and see the B's, I bet we see that blog happen before or after Game 1.

- Victoro311


Ahhhh ok lol
j.boyd919
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Tampa, FL
Joined: 06.14.2011

May 14 @ 2:12 PM ET
Don't forget about the home Ice advantage myth! No distinct advantage for the home team, It's a tired and old narrative for the TV talking heads who run out of things to talk about.
- Shady1962


I dunno home ice advantage gives you the last change. That can at least be used tactically as a coach if they choose to.
PghPens668771
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 11.26.2013

May 14 @ 2:33 PM ET
I dunno home ice advantage gives you the last change. That can at least be used tactically as a coach if they choose to.
- j.boyd919


There is also the issue of how the pucks bounce off boards. There can be slight variations and home teams are more familiar with their boards, allowing them to better anticipate rebounds.

Having said that, I think home ice is a bigger factor in the regular season than in the playoffs. So are special teams, for that matter (unless someone's PK is bad, in which case they are not getting far).
MattStrat
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: ...serial abuser...and misuser...of the ellipsis , NF
Joined: 12.12.2014

May 14 @ 2:56 PM ET
I dunno home ice advantage gives you the last change. That can at least be used tactically as a coach if they choose to.
- j.boyd919


I think being in control of matchups is a big deal. Tell me o'le Barry Trotz doesn't love having last change haha
Rinosaur
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Somewhere, NJ
Joined: 01.21.2016

May 14 @ 2:57 PM ET
This is what I've been hoping to hear and I really hope the team can keep this mentality...

Pens Inside Scoop
@PensInsideScoop
·
28m
Kris Letang: “I think the result of this series is going to be who's going to do his game plan and respect his structure the best. You don't want to go off the grid and go on your own page when things go wrong."
Pens Inside Scoop
@PensInsideScoop
·
28m
More Letang: "I think we have to focus on our own thing, and I think that's what we tried to do all year and get better at throughout the season. I think it's going to be a chess match.”


This is what could break them if they deviate for long stretches. Keep structure and their system, while making sure to not constantly pass up shooting for the perfect setup is the only way they win IMO.
Rinosaur
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Somewhere, NJ
Joined: 01.21.2016

May 14 @ 2:58 PM ET
I think being in control of matchups is a big deal. Tell me o'le Barry Trotz doesn't love having last change haha
- MattStrat


The reason matchups don't bother as much this series is because as long as the Pens stick to their system, every single line is a threat, so just shutting down one line won't do Richard.
PghPens668771
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 11.26.2013

May 14 @ 3:43 PM ET
The reason matchups don't bother as much this series is because as long as the Pens stick to their system, every single line is a threat, so just shutting down one line won't do Richard.
- Rinosaur


That is true, but it also works both ways. Trotz specifically designed his system for the Islanders so that he is comfortable playing any one of his four lines against any of the opposition's four lines. I don't think matchups matter much at all to him, actually. Still, with three very good offensive lines and a fourth line that does its job the Pens are going to keep all their lines on their toes. They can't take it easy when our third and fourth lines are out like in the past.

The reason I consider Trotz the best coach in the league is because he adapts his systems/style/etc. to the team he has. Back when he coached the Capitals he didn't force them to do a trap but rather allowed their offense to do its thing (but perhaps a bit more responsibly than in the past). Likewise he didn't play a trap before that when he coached Nashville. He has the Islanders play a trap because he is smart enough to realize that is their best chance of winning, due to lack of offensive firepower. The entire team could have gone into a tailspin after losing Tavares but he prevented this. If Trotz had gone to Buffalo they would probably be in the playoffs now.
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