They were only in a position to trade for these players because of how the expansion draft shook out, certainly some savvy trades but Vegas should not be included when comparing with anyone.
- ClaudeFather

My opinion is you can. The conversation is about which way is better to be a cup team. Obviously Vegas didn't use draft and they could have. They loaded up on picks i remember. They chose to be competitive now and use expansion picks to do it.

You are getting fooled by randomness by looking at all those diversions and possibilities. Look at patterns within all that data.

Also, what's this fascination with precisely the #1 pick?
- PT21

Because #2 gets you Nolan Patrick !!

My opinion is you can. The conversation is about which way is better to be a cup team. Obviously Vegas didn't use draft and they could have. They loaded up on picks i remember. They chose to be competitive now and use expansion picks to do it.
- wcorvette

Dude no other team is in a position to ever load up on assets like they were able to due to the expansion draft, what are you missing? Use another example, the Blues somewhat fits that category, not Vegas. And the Blues happened once in the past 10 years, most cup teams are built mainly through the draft.

You are getting fooled by randomness by looking at all those diversions and possibilities. Look at patterns within all that data.

Also, what's this fascination with precisely the #1 pick?
- PT21

I am looking at who won and why, then forming my opinion, just like you are forming yours.

I would not be as fascinated about #1 picks if they weren't generational and been such a huge part the SC win.

Dude no other team is in a position to ever load up on assets like they were able to due to the expansion draft, what are you missing? Use another example, the Blues somewhat fits that category, not Vegas. And the Blues happened once in the past 10 years, most cup teams are built mainly through the draft.
- ClaudeFather

Dude, you are welcome to your opinion and creating a post from your perspective. I will do the same from mine.

I didn't say cup teams were not built through the draft but built through all lanes, my preference. I fully supported Hexy rebuilding. However, Generational talents have a huge impact on all of it. Even with the generational talent you still need to bring experience players in to make a cup team, to make the fit right. Vegas is a great example of using non draft talent and putting together a team that is a contender. Can you do that in one year, no. But last I checked a full rebuild takes 5 plus years. You can add a lot of current NHL talent over a 5 year period via trade and FA.

7 of the last 12 cups were won by teams with generational or close to generational players. Pens had 3 with Crosby, Hawks had 3 with Kane, Caps had 1 with Ovi. While I agree picking higher yields better results, what else is true is that what year you pick is more important. Would those 3 teams win the cup with normal #1 picks? My guess is no. Yes having a top center, goalie and D are keys to winning but to tank and just draft has real challenges to it.


Then look at the teams that won like LA, big 3 positions filled due to draft, but it was the trades and the players they brought in that moved them to Cup status.

Bottom line to me, tanking and building through all top 5 picks can just as easily end up to be like the Oilers and Sabres and not like the Kings, Tampa or the AV's. The jury is still out on the Av's, but again, they were lucky to draft when Mackinnon was #1 pick. They have drafted well but they also traded well to acquire picks that turned into good players, I am a fan of that. Then you have Vegas, built mostly without Drafting, the opposite of Tampa, who built through the draft. Tampa still needed luck to have a Hedman available, still needed to pull in the right FA's and make the right trades.

If you have a well run franchise, wealthy owner and patient fan base, can you build a champion thru the draft, sure, but you still need luck on the talent level of the draft. Then you still need FA and trades to finish the process.

Should the Flyers have done a full rebuild? Looking back, probably, but that is looking back, everyone is an expert at that. Pushing out a G and Jake at close to their peak is a really tough call. I was all for hold them and build on the Fly, unfortunately the build took as long as a tank would.

The process was and is way to long at this point. Hextall did not hit on picks, on the later round picks or even his 1st round picks. Some nice players for sure, some with upside but no game changers, not even the next G, so far. This coming year is the make it or break it for the Hextall picks and current player regime. Could the Flyers have the perfect off-season and look more like Vegas next season? It would all have to land perfect but yes it could. I think it was Bill who covered how hard it is to win the cup, who laid out how many franchises went decades with no cup.

To me, bottom line, it is really hard to win a cup no matter how you do it. To me, you need LUCK with top picks being that much better than the norm. Luck with injuries, luck with trades and luck with timing. It is not a one size fits all.
- wcorvette

They had 2 choices imo:

1. Rebuild completely and tear it downz.

2. Build around Giroux Jake Schenn Simmonds Couturier and Ivan.

They half assed it and they are still stuck in neutral.

They had 2 choices imo:

1. Rebuild completely and tear it downz.

2. Build around Giroux Jake Schenn Simmonds Couturier and Ivan.

They half assed it and they are still stuck in neutral.
- hello it's me 2050

looking back they should have traded jake at top value, easy to say now, easy to look back. Next year will tell the full story, final chapter on the hexy era rebuild

I am looking at who won and why, then forming my opinion, just like you are forming yours.

I would not be as fascinated about #1 picks if they weren't generational and been such a huge part the SC win.
- wcorvette

Honestly, that's the mistake. Why not leave opinion out of it? Its a very unreliable barometer.

I have said this many times before, but look at the following simple logic:

1. Almost all cup winners have at least 1 superstar in 1st line or 1st pairing (sadly not goalie or selke types as Detroit, Chicago and Pens proved, respectively)
2. A disproportionate number of them come from drafting high.

This mans winning requires superstars who are most likely to come from high draft position. If draft position was not so important, you would not have #2 above being true.

Please note:

1. Never do I say that drafting high guarantees success, or that every player drafted high ends up a superstar.
2. That this is not an opinion. It is an empirical fact.

Dude, you are welcome to your opinion and creating a post from your perspective. I will do the same from mine.

I didn't say cup teams were not built through the draft but built through all lanes, my preference. I fully supported Hexy rebuilding. However, Generational talents have a huge impact on all of it. Even with the generational talent you still need to bring experience players in to make a cup team, to make the fit right. Vegas is a great example of using non draft talent and putting together a team that is a contender. Can you do that in one year, no. But last I checked a full rebuild takes 5 plus years. You can add a lot of current NHL talent over a 5 year period via trade and FA.
- wcorvette

Yea I’m not saying it’s just draft well and then it’s all set but drafting well is the most important part. I still don’t like Vegas as any sort of comparison, they were able to sit back and stockpile assets and ended up getting some instrumental players from other teams mistakes at the same time. We are now in a position to rebuild IMO, some young players that could end up being strong pieces down the road, especially Hart, and if we are able to draft high and pick a few solid players we could be in great shape to take the next step.

Take a longer vacation Bill, you hockey-writing animal!

Hey do you ever write about the Dallas Warriors or Ft Worth Patriots on your Stars blog?

Honestly, that's the mistake. Why not leave opinion out of it? Its a very unreliable barometer.

I have said this many times before, but look at the following simple logic:

1. Almost all cup winners have at least 1 superstar in 1st line or 1st pairing (sadly not goalie or selke types as Detroit, Chicago and Pens proved, respectively)
2. A disproportionate number of them come from drafting high.

This mans winning requires superstars who are most likely to come from high draft position. If draft position was not so important, you would not have #2 above being true.

Please note:

1. Never do I say that drafting high guarantees success, or that every player drafted high ends up a superstar.
2. That this is not an opinion. It is an empirical fact.
- PT21

yes and superstars are on 7 of the last 12 winners. You can't ignore the fact that those generational players being available was just fortunate for those teams. you have Crosby and Kane involved in half of those cups. if you subtract the generational talent form the roster and replace with a typical #1, adding them to the other picks of those teams, you most likely don't have cup teams, surely not 3 a piece, my opinion. If you look back in further #1 picks you have more and more who never won the cup.

I don't disagree consistently picking in the top 5 will yield you better picks. Then the question of building a business comes in, how long will you wait, 5 years? Then if you wait, will the luck hit and you get a generational talent or a superstar. Even after all of that time and development you still then need to add via FA or trade to finish the project. Can your owner and can your fan base handle those down years? Will the money still be there to pick up the FA's or shell out the big contracts? Fans will wait for a Crosby, Malkin, MacKinnon, Kane and the Ovi's but this is the new give it to me now world we live in, this is not the old loyal to your team world. They need a shiny object to watch and believe in.

So we are on the same page, I am all for rebuilds, I am all for making trades of good players that make sense, it could be for a roster player or a high pick. I would love to pick in the top 5. looking back Hextall missed it, when he traded Schenn he should have traded Jake too. I am not for tanking, drafting high for 5 seasons and hoping all falls perfectly together. The only way I would even understand doing it would be if you see a Crosby coming in the draft, even then I don't like it but from a business perspective I get it.

For the Flyers and this is really the perspective I post from, I am not a fan of ripping it down and staring over. They need another year to see what they have, with adding players of course. They have enough pieces, they have enough talent on both the farm and the big club to reshape the team. While Drafting is the primary way to build a team, all teams need FA and trades to complete a team. Add, the Flyers did the rebuild, they did the drafting, time to use it and build the team they want.


Selling from desperation is just bad business.

Yea I’m not saying it’s just draft well and then it’s all set but drafting well is the most important part. I still don’t like Vegas as any sort of comparison, they were able to sit back and stockpile assets and ended up getting some instrumental players from other teams mistakes at the same time. We are now in a position to rebuild IMO, some young players that could end up being strong pieces down the road, especially Hart, and if we are able to draft high and pick a few solid players we could be in great shape to take the next step.
- ClaudeFather

I didn't like Vegas's cherry picking either. I always said they had the perfect storm. Other teams were still trying to get rid of bad contracts, mostly players who didn't fit the new NHL with all the speed and skill. Vegas knew what kind of player the NHL needed.

I am not in the camp of a rebuild, they did that, I am in the camp of trade and upgrade. If I could land a top pick would I do it, most likely. I just don't think that will be reality based upon who we would trade and what they would get back.

Now, at the trade deadline, depending on how they are playing, that is where you can make the call to trade, get max value and maybe high picks.

I didn't like Vegas's cherry picking either. I always said they had the perfect storm. Other teams were still trying to get rid of bad contracts, mostly players who didn't fit the new NHL with all the speed and skill. Vegas knew what kind of player the NHL needed.

I am not in the camp of a rebuild, they did that, I am in the camp of trade and upgrade. If I could land a top pick would I do it, most likely. I just don't think that will be reality based upon who we would trade and what they would get back.

Now, at the trade deadline, depending on how they are playing, that is where you can make the call to trade, get max value and maybe high picks.
- wcorvette

I think the rebuild is thoroughly needed. Watching Colorado Vegas Tampa Carolina , you honestly think the Flyers can get their through trade and upgrade? I don’t think you can really think that.

I think the rebuild is thoroughly needed. Watching Colorado Vegas Tampa Carolina , you honestly think the Flyers can get their through trade and upgrade? I don’t think you can really think that.
- ClaudeFather

Some of it is the lesser of 2 evils. Canes are young, Av's young, Tampa young. Their windows are open and will be for a while. So is the choice crash it and we will see you in 5 years? All the while the other teams like the oilers etc will be getting better. Then you still don't know if drafting will get you there anywhere in our lifetimes, LOL. They will still need top heavy drafts, still need a lot of luck. Like it or not they are in the position they are, the solution is not full rebuild, hoping for superstars, it is find the right mix and have the perfect run.

Now, CF needs to earn his money, even if the Flyers are a playoff team next year, if he finds a trade where he can get a high pick do it, similar to what the Av's did with the sens. Either way you go, they need a lot of luck but we all know there is not a full rebuild coming, we know they will look to get the right mix. You can make a case for both.

Some of it is the lesser of 2 evils. Canes are young, Av's young, Tampa young. Their windows are open and will be for a while. So is the choice crash it and we will see you in 5 years? All the while the other teams like the oilers etc will be getting better. Then you still don't know if drafting will get you there anywhere in our lifetimes, LOL. They will still need top heavy drafts, still need a lot of luck. Like it or not they are in the position they are, the solution is not full rebuild, hoping for superstars, it is find the right mix and have the perfect run.

Now, CF needs to earn his money, even if the Flyers are a playoff team next year, if he finds a trade where he can get a high pick do it, similar to what the Av's did with the sens. Either way you go, they need a lot of luck but we all know there is not a full rebuild coming, we know they will look to get the right mix. You can make a case for both.
- wcorvette

Those teams for the most part aren’t going anywhere, I disagree, this needs to be torn down now. We have a ton of young guys that could be major pieces down the road in Farabee York Frost TK Hart sanheim Frost , probably forgetting some others, you go full rebuild and hopefully get some good players and or trade / sign what’s necessary. Who’s to say we can’t get out rantanen and makar after a few down years?

I don’t think Kane is a generational talent.

I think he’s a 1st ballot HOFer without question, but he is not of the level of Crosby or Ovie. He’s fantastic. Elite! Not generational.

Generational talents are, well, generational. The only reason that period has two in 8 and 87 is because how different they are from one another. They’re still leaps and bounds above anyone else of their age.

That’s why as damn good as MacKinnon, Matthews, and Kucherov are, they aren’t generational. It’s McDavid with a bullet, and that’s it.

I said so just for the sake of making a point. Its not important they be equal. But then JD250 ran through his list, and coincidentally, they were equal.
- PT21

Actually I went further to the top 30 scorers, and again they were equal. It was interesting to see that happen. However if I did a median of all the picks, I would get somewhere around the 20th pick, which is why I think you can still build a contending team picking within the top 15. The question is, can you win a cup without a generational talent on your team? And how much do your odds improve to win a cup if you have a generational talent? I say you can build a strong contender without a generational talent, but with a few top end players and depth scoring. The Flyers IMO are lacking top end players right now, and that is why the hope has got to be that one or more of their recent forward picks turn into one. Right now Farabee is the closest thing they have to that, and he is still a significant ways away.

I don’t think Kane is a generational talent.

I think he’s a 1st ballot HOFer without question, but he is not of the level of Crosby or Ovie.

Generational talents are, well, generational. The only reason that period has two in 8 and 87 is because how different they are from one another. They’re still leaps and bounds above anyone else of their age.

That’s why as damn good as MacKinnon, Matthews, and Kucherov are, they aren’t generational. It’s McDavid with a bullet, and that’s it.
- Hesh_

I agree, Kane is not on that level. Phenomenal player but he’s not Ovie or crosby

yes and superstars are on 7 of the last 12 winners. You can't ignore the fact that those generational players being available was just fortunate for those teams. you have Crosby and Kane involved in half of those cups. if you subtract the generational talent form the roster and replace with a typical #1, adding them to the other picks of those teams, you most likely don't have cup teams, surely not 3 a piece, my opinion. If you look back in further #1 picks you have more and more who never won the cup.

I don't disagree consistently picking in the top 5 will yield you better picks. Then the question of building a business comes in, how long will you wait, 5 years? Then if you wait, will the luck hit and you get a generational talent or a superstar. Even after all of that time and development you still then need to add via FA or trade to finish the project. Can your owner and can your fan base handle those down years? Will the money still be there to pick up the FA's or shell out the big contracts? Fans will wait for a Crosby, Malkin, MacKinnon, Kane and the Ovi's but this is the new give it to me now world we live in, this is not the old loyal to your team world. They need a shiny object to watch and believe in.

So we are on the same page, I am all for rebuilds, I am all for making trades of good players that make sense, it could be for a roster player or a high pick. I would love to pick in the top 5. looking back Hextall missed it, when he traded Schenn he should have traded Jake too. I am not for tanking, drafting high for 5 seasons and hoping all falls perfectly together. The only way I would even understand doing it would be if you see a Crosby coming in the draft, even then I don't like it but from a business perspective I get it.

For the Flyers and this is really the perspective I post from, I am not a fan of ripping it down and staring over. They need another year to see what they have, with adding players of course. They have enough pieces, they have enough talent on both the farm and the big club to reshape the team. While Drafting is the primary way to build a team, all teams need FA and trades to complete a team. Add, the Flyers did the rebuild, they did the drafting, time to use it and build the team they want.


Selling from desperation is just bad business.
- wcorvette

First bold: Those generational players showing up in the top 5 is part and parcel of what picking in the top 5 means. Sometimes you will get bad players, sometimes good one's sometimes franchise ones, and occasionally, generational ones. Its just that the odds are more tilted towards the latter part of those descriptors in the top 5 than later on.

The business side is a completely different ballgame which I don't want to confuse this discussion with. You are right, ofc, but as hockey fans, we presumably care only about which strategy maximizes our chance of winning, and to me, the full rebuild + having enough money to sign key FA approach after rebuild seems to be much more likely to result in success in this salary cap era. Teams that are able to do this will likely do better.

Regarding the last, this is now indeed a matter of opinion. I will respectfully disagree with you on this one. I don't think they are even in the same planet as most of the contending teams as far as talent goes, both existing and farm. They have one former elite player in Roo, one very good but not great one in Couts, and a whole bunch of hope, which to me seems mostly irrational.

I agree, Kane is not on that level. Phenomenal player but he’s not Ovie or crosby
- ClaudeFather

It’s an easy one to figure, too.

1st, ask a hockey fan what they think of Kane as a player. Take in all the accolades. There will be many.

Then, ask a hockey fan who the best is between Crosby, Ovechkin, and Kane.

Before you get a straight answer, I bet you get a reaction like “Kane?! C’mon. Nah. Sooo, Ovie or Crosby. Ummm, I’d take (fill in a real answer here between the two generational talents)”

Montreal is a surprise so far checking my playoff impact player table. Goaltending factor no doubt.

If Islanders beat Boston, it will be another upset on my impact measures.

I don’t think that I can get stats that would enable me to predict playoff outcomes, as there are too many unpredictable variables.

I did best with the goalies.

I haven’t looked into why STL, MIN, TOR and VGK underperformed from their pre-playoff numbers. VGK might turn it around still.

The slight amount that WSH, PIT, and EDM underperformed really shows the parity at the middle of the playoff pack.

So apparently Sandstrom isn't playing overseas next season?

Take a longer vacation Bill, you hockey-writing animal!

Hey do you ever write about the Dallas Warriors or Ft Worth Patriots on your Stars blog?
- Boyer83

The longer he is gone the more this place will turn into Lord of the Flies.

It’s an easy one to figure, too.

1st, ask a hockey fan what they think of Kane as a player. Take in all the accolades. There will be many.

Then, ask a hockey fan who the best is between Crosby, Ovechkin, and Kane.

Before you get a straight answer, I bet you get a reaction like “Kane?! C’mon. Nah. Sooo, Ovie or Crosby. Ummm, I’d take (fill in a real answer here between the two generational talents)”
- Hesh_

I was SHOCKED he only had 40+ goals twice

Wow

Responses in order:

1. I am not sure what your point is here...those guys were picked in the top 5, and they were instrumental in the cups their teams won...they should be part of the relevant data set.

2. Who said anything about picking just 1st?


3. The high % strategy is: teams that do a complete rebuild, which generally means sucking for a few consecutive years, are far more likely to end up winning the cup.
- PT21

If tanking improved odds so much (zomg 40x!), and talent is the main decider, we should see a more even distribution of Cup wins between teams that have hardcore sucked over the past decade or so (Thrashers, Sabres, Oilers, Panthers, Senators, Islanders, etc), right?

Instead we have just a couple of teams winning the majority of the Cups. They landed the right picks, in the right years, under the right circumstances.

Now imagine if Bill Wirtz hadn't died when he did. It wouldn't matter how transcendent Kane + Toews were, there would have been no dynasty b/c Bill wouldn't have paid to keep the band together. Just ask JR, Belfour, Chelios and Amonte. Wondering if they'd even win one, since I kinda doubt they would have traded for Hossa or signed Campbell w/o new ownership.

Even with top talent, if everything else doesn't line up just right, you're simply not gonna win jack poop.