Again, you only consider the successes and ignore the failures. You just did the same thing you accuse Bill of doing.
- MJL

No.

I have repeatedly stated that I don't blame Hextall with the information he had at the time for the selection of Patrick. One poster repeatedly claims in a bout of fantasy that I stated in the past that a pre draft history of migraines report existed concerning Patrick. If that was true, then wouldn't I find fault in Hextall's selection of Patrick? Also as a long time member of HB, anyone who knows and reads my posts is that I don't get involved in talking about prospects and their potential before they are drafted. I don't invest any time nor have any knowledge whatsoever on junior level players. I could not tell you who the projected top picks are in the upcoming draft. So for the final time, we can put this fantasy claim from a poster who is repeatedly inaccurate to bed. No further comment will be made.

No.
- PT21

Yes, you do and you've done the very same thing you accuse Bill of doing and you do it repeatedly. The very proof is on this thread. The odds that you always swear by are actually against you.

So who will be playing next to Provorov when the puck drops opening night of the Flyers 2021-22 season?

what impact has he had team wise?
- hello it's me 2050

Well for one, if Couts missed this season say due to an injury, you would have got your wish and the Flyers would be picking in the top 5. I think overall he and Giroux have had the most impact to whatever little success this team has had over the past decade.

Bill is not saying that you should ignore the evidence that NHL forwards begin to decline at age 30 or even disputing that most do. Bill instead advocates to take it on a case by case basis given there are plenty of examples of forwards that play even better in their 30s. Which player is Couturier going to be? Well, to me you project this based on what type of game he plays and how he adds value. For example, if Couturier was strictly a speed daemon and that is how he generates value for his team, then its likely his legs will lose something as he gets older and thus be less effective. However if Couturier adds value by his smarts, positioning, vision, faceoff ability, etc., these are attributes that do not decline into your 30s but in fact get better. Thus the Flyers have to make this determination and decide what to do. If it were me I would commit to Couts because I believe he has the attributes that will only get better over time.
- jd250

Fine, look at the odds of ALL the players who played his style of game and how it changed over the years. Don't cherry pick.

You dont know how things will turn out with Couts. When you dont know anything, what do you do? You look at comparables to gain an understanding of odds.

You will see the same trend.

Keeping Couturier is the equivalent of never daring to start a business because the job in the post-office is too safe.
- PT21

Or it's more like staying with the wife you love and who loves you, makes your life livable, sticks with you thru thick and thin, instead of casting her aside because you think you may have a chance at bagging some younger/hotter tart off Tinder.

Hey, nothing ventured, nothing gained, maybe you'll end up with your perfect gal in the end.

Or you could spend the rest of your life waking up next to Nolan Patricks.

Who knows?

So who will be playing next to Provorov when the puck drops opening night of the Flyers 2021-22 season?
- NC Flyers Fan

my hope is victor soderstrom. But then we'll hear that provy needs a vet beside him because he cant carry a line

I just don’t things are as dire as you do. I think some of the young guys that regressed last year will be better this year….all of them?…no. But is that a reason to trade your best player ? Because it would provide the biggest return ? I do agree the current core hasn’t been successful and that’s why I think it’s imperative for Fletcher to make changes. The current mix is not a winning mix in my view …I just have seen to many rebuilds or quasi rebuilds…lol…fail and lead a team into oblivion. I agree any contract to a player of Coot’s is a risk….but do you really see the Flyers moving on from Coots by their choice?
- landros 2

I dont think things are dire at all. I wish they were. I think we will soon see a reversion to mean and continued stagnancy.

Re: bold, have you not seen just as much stagnancy in the middle as you have seen failed rebuilds? The two are equivalent in terms of not winning the cup, no?

Fine, look at the odds of ALL the players who played his style of game and how it changed over the years. Don't cherry pick.

You dont know how things will turn out with Couts. When you dont know anything, what do you do? You look at comparables to gain an understanding of odds.

You will see the same trend.
- PT21

No, you do what Bill suggests. You look at each player and each case individually. No GM looks at odds and probabilities when making player considerations like this. To suggest that they should, is laughable. They don't for a reason.

Or it's more like staying with the wife you love and who loves you, makes your life livable, sticks with you thru thick and thin, instead of casting her aside because you think you may have a chance at bagging some younger/hotter tart off Tinder.

Hey, nothing ventured, nothing gained, maybe you'll end up with your perfect gal in the end.

Or you could spend the rest of your life waking up next to Nolan Patricks.

Who knows?
- Tomahawk

What do the odds and probabilities say?

so there is a probability some of the players bounce back or get better?
- wcorvette

Yeah when there slotted properly

What do the odds and probabilities say?
- MJL

For PT21, I'd say the odds aren't too good unless he changed his profile pic to Ryan Gosling from The Notebook and hired me to do all his talking for him.

Or it's more like staying with the wife you love and who loves you, makes your life livable, sticks with you thru thick and thin, instead of casting her aside because you think you may have a chance of bagging some younger/hotter tart off Tinder.

Hey, nothing ventured, nothing gained, maybe you'll end up with your perfect gal in the end.

Or you could spend the rest of your life waking up next to Nolan Patricks.

Who knows?
- Tomahawk

This coming from the same guy, who just a few weeks ago, asked why fans continue to use emotional metaphors for team loyalty when the nature of sports as a business has changed so much. Schizo much, amigo?

More to the point, here is the problem with your analogy. In the wife example, is there an ultimate goal you are failing to reach with that steadfast, loyal, devotion?

If so, frankly, it is time for a change, ruthless though it may sound.

If not, the comparison is not relevant.

Bergy is also a hall of famer. Playing on a line with 2 hall of famers. Most likely
- Stayin alive

Do you think Giroux is a Hall Of Famer?

Honestly, they are illogical on the merit of it . Just because some players did not decline in their 30s doesn't mean that Couturier will follow that trend, does it? You have to look at overall probabilities.

Also, the argument for keeping Couts, and the hole that will be present in the lineup if he goes, and so on ...all of that is based on the premise that we really need to maintain our regular season trajectory. But this regular season trajectory hasn't gotten us any postseason success. How exactly is Couts continuing presence going to help in that regard? Could it possibly harm it? What happens if the current young kids DONT turn out to be studs, and Couts begins at best a slow decline? Where is the discussion of that very real possibility? Is there any blessed *guarantee* THAT wont happen?
- PT21

Are the arguments illogical because they are opposite your view? That's all I see here.
True some players did decline at 30ish and others did not. Do you have a six page chart complete with graphs to show us the "overall" probability of his imminent decline?
You are also discounting the hole his departure likely would create. For a number of seasons, the statistics show that Couturier is the doctor for what ails any Flyers forward. Players get out of their funks when placed on 14's line. Because the numbers indicate this, why are you shunning the stats this time?
It's funny how you ask all these questions about the other side of the argument (Could it possibly harm it?), but never see the other side of the same question when presenting your law of probabilities.
I know you hate this analogy, but you are the instructor in Dead Poets Society trying to quantify art. It does not work like that. A 99% chance is still not a guarantee!

Do you think Giroux is a Hall Of Famer?
- MBFlyerfan

no

We have done this before 😃.

The chances of you landing a top player are about 42 times greater at the top of the draft than any other equivalent range.

Could we get them? Sure. But the odds are different.
- PT21

Ok, lets take a look at the defending Stanley Cup champions Lightning, who will most likely be back there again, and look at where their top playoff performers were drafted:
Kucherov - 58th
Point - 79th
Stamkos - 1st
Killorn - 77th
Hedman - 2nd
Palat - 208th
Cernak - 43th
Cirelli - 72th
Coleman - 75th
Gourde - undrafted
Colton - 118th
McDonagh - 12th
Johnson - undrafted
Maroon - 161st
Sergachev - 9th
Vasilevskiy - 19th

So here you see only 2 players from the top 5 and 5 in the top 20. Please show me an example of a recent cup winner that has a different distribution that proves your case that in order for you to contend you must have a collection of top 5 or top 10 picks.

no
- bradster

Do you think Marchand is a Hall of Famer?

A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush! If the Flyers believe, as I do, that Couturier is a core player that you build around, why get rid of him simply on the chance you might draft the next Nathan McKinnon instead? There are too many examples of teams like Jersey, Rangers, Coyotes and Sabres that consistently draft high and go nowhere. Are Dahlin, Kakko, Hischier or Keller ever going to impact their teams more that Couturier??
- jd250

Here’s the serious question… do you see coots is the 1c for life of contract? If so with the cap ramifications taken into account fine.

If you don’t see coots as the 1c for the life of the contract or many reasons age skill decline etc then you can’t sign the deal for cap ramifications.

Do you think Giroux is a Hall Of Famer?
- MBFlyerfan

Flyers HOF? Yes. NHL? No.

Because Coots is some slouch
- ClaudeFather

Never said he was… quite the contrary. I think he’s a top 3 2c in nhl. A great piece when slotted properly. Either way with the cap ramifications and all the factors age decline toward last half contract no way you risk that

Do you think Marchand is a Hall of Famer?
- MBFlyerfan

Probably, he has his name on a cup, and scores goals

Flyers HOF? Yes. NHL? No.
- jd250

I ask because he thinks Marchand is one.

Both the same age, drafted the same year. Both every productive. Giroux 858 points in 943 games, Marchand 715 points in 804 games.

Fine, look at the odds of ALL the players who played his style of game and how it changed over the years. Don't cherry pick.

You dont know how things will turn out with Couts. When you dont know anything, what do you do? You look at comparables to gain an understanding of odds.

You will see the same trend.
- PT21

Ok, I agree, let's not cherry pick. Give me 25 contemporary players that play like Couts and have the same attributes and let's see how they did in their 30s. Bill gave you 4 that I think we'd all agree are similar. I think you'll be hard pressed to find that many more players that give you what Couts gives you.