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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Musings & Quick Hits: Couturier, Showcase Roster, TIFH and More
Author Message
ClaudeFather
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: west haven, CT
Joined: 08.14.2015

Jun 22 @ 6:38 PM ET
Yeah makes complete sense to you
- wcorvette

1 game and 45 games is clearly the same sample size
Captain_Ahab
Joined: 03.23.2017

Jun 22 @ 6:39 PM ET
This is funny. So if you don't resign him, you don't have him. If you do resign him, you do have him. So the fact that you had him previously, which is in the PAST, and not part of the future does not mean that keeping him does not improve the team moving forward versus not keeping him.

Again, very funny. What question were you asking me? Are you asking me how does keeping Couturier improve the team moving forward? Or were you asking me what my detailed plan was for the Flyers in it's entirety? You need to identify the scope of what you're asking and not change the question with every response.

As I said previously, if you want to say the cap picture is tough moving forward, I would agree with you. If you want to have a discussion of the Flyers cap picture moving forward, we can do that.

- MJL


Again, you make no sense.

You avoided specifics. You offer no plans. No ideas.


wcorvette
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Boynton Beach, FL
Joined: 10.03.2010

Jun 22 @ 6:42 PM ET
1 game and 45 games is clearly the same sample size
- ClaudeFather



I love learning new math
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jun 22 @ 6:42 PM ET
Again, you make no sense.

You avoided specifics. You offer no plans. No ideas.

- Captain_Ahab


Why do I need to offer a plan or an idea in a discussion on whether keeping Couturier improves the team moving forward?
Stayin alive
Joined: 06.10.2021

Jun 22 @ 6:47 PM ET
Yeah makes complete sense to you
- wcorvette

If hart wins 40+ games next year we’re good
If bee scores40 goals next year great
If g scores 100 points next year great
If Jvr scores 35 goals next year great

Do you follow?

On pace is an “if”

What has been done. What is the history. What are the facts to lead to a probable result. Past history or “ifs”???
Stayin alive
Joined: 06.10.2021

Jun 22 @ 6:48 PM ET
1 game and 45 games is clearly the same sample size
- ClaudeFather

Game 45 and game 82 are clearly same sample size….

Which one is a complete season and leave ZERO room for mitigating factors?
ClaudeFather
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: west haven, CT
Joined: 08.14.2015

Jun 22 @ 6:49 PM ET
If hart wins 40+ games next year we’re good
If bee scores40 goals next year great
If g scores 100 points next year great
If Jvr scores 35 goals next year great

Do you follow?

On pace is an “if”

What has been done. What is the history. What are the facts to lead to a probable result. Past history or “ifs”???

- Stayin alive

Sean couturiers 45 game sample size and recent history would suggest he was realistically on pace for 70+ points, do you think otherwise?
Captain_Ahab
Joined: 03.23.2017

Jun 22 @ 6:49 PM ET
Why do I need to offer a plan or an idea in a discussion on whether keeping Couturier improves the team moving forward?
- MJL



If you have no plan. If you have no idea.

Then you have no way of improving the team with less cap space after resigning Couturier for more money.

You find yourself in the same position Hextall was in when he first got here.

You mismanage the cap and the team is stuck in a bad spot for a long time.

Stayin alive
Joined: 06.10.2021

Jun 22 @ 6:49 PM ET
Again, you make no sense.

You avoided specifics. You offer no plans. No ideas.

- Captain_Ahab

He never does. Never will. That’s why I say he’s bill offering stir the pot to drive hits and revenue for site
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Jun 22 @ 6:51 PM ET
I used to be more emotionally attached to players, but I guess all these years of futility, or just all these years, has worn that away. Players come and players go. Couturier is a really good player, but I can see the logic in trading him rather than resigning him for max years and huge money. The Islanders lost their number 1 center and got nothing for him. A few years later and they’re a few wins from the Stanley Cup finals (would have been a better example before they got their asses handed to them last night).
- Dkos


The specifics of Couts apart, it is simply so surprising to me that people actually argue with a straight face that tanking/rebuilding/picking high doesn't improve your chances of winning.

I mean, why do we have the draft order to begin with? To ensure long run parity of chances. Just like the salary cap equalizes opportunities in a given year, the draft is designed to equalize it across years.

Teams that pick higher will get better players. Teams with better players will tend to win more. Thats the very way the system was designed. That was its intent. And indeed, that is what you see in terms of chances.


Stayin alive
Joined: 06.10.2021

Jun 22 @ 6:51 PM ET
Why do I need to offer a plan or an idea in a discussion on whether keeping Couturier improves the team moving forward?
- MJL


Because you’re the one “stating it makes the team better!” Offer some facts. Like you say. Not opinion. Offer a plan. Oh wait we all know that ain’t happening. Just like that article on nopa dated ore draft ain’t happening
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jun 22 @ 6:53 PM ET
If you have no plan. If you have no idea.

Then you have no way of improving the team with less cap space after resigning Couturier for more money.

You find yourself in the same position Hextall was in when he first got here.

You mismanage the cap and the team is stuck in a bad spot for a long time.

- Captain_Ahab


The cap is being mismanaged now. Dave Scott wants the team to be a cap team. They're going to make moves to try and win now. That equals spending to the cap.

Are you confusing your idea that somehow I have no plan with the thought that the Flyers have no plan? I'm sure they have a plan. I just don't know if it is a good one or not.
Stayin alive
Joined: 06.10.2021

Jun 22 @ 6:55 PM ET
Sean couturiers 45 game sample size and recent history would suggest he was realistically on pace for 70+ points, do you think otherwise?
- ClaudeFather

Possibly…. I’ve never said he couldn’t… what I offered is even if the next 3-5 years he did hit career highs 76 points(fact) I showed in the last full year he did it where he ranked. Tied for 33rd in scoring and 16 centers with more points. And just below his 76 points were Matthews Larkin zabinahad.

Hardly top player.
Hardly worth term/$ he’s gonna want/get

And that’s at best. That’s not having a drop that naturally probably comes with age/ etc..
Captain_Ahab
Joined: 03.23.2017

Jun 22 @ 6:56 PM ET
The cap is being mismanaged now. Dave Scott wants the team to be a cap team. They're going to make moves to try and win now. That equals spending to the cap.

Are you confusing your idea that somehow I have no plan with the thought that the Flyers have no plan? I'm sure they have a plan. I just don't know if it is a good one or not.

- MJL



You have no plan.

You just say resign him. Then that's it.
Dkos
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Gritty, PA
Joined: 01.15.2007

Jun 22 @ 6:56 PM ET
Would they be a better team with Taveras? I don't think the idea of trading Couturier is without any merit. I just don't agree with it.
- MJL


Who knows. They’d be a different team. To me being a Stanley Cup team involves a little magic. It’s not about one player. It’s about how they fit together. Maybe he’d throw the balance off? I don’t follow the Islanders enough to know what loosing him and the $10 mil he was going to be paid allowed them to do.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jun 22 @ 6:59 PM ET
The specifics of Couts apart, it is simply so surprising to me that people actually argue with a straight face that tanking/rebuilding/picking high doesn't improve your chances of winning.

I mean, why do we have the draft order to begin with? To ensure long run parity of chances. Just like the salary cap equalizes opportunities in a given year, the draft is designed to equalize it across years.

Teams that pick higher will get better players. Teams with better players will tend to win more. Thats the very way the system was designed. That was its intent. And indeed, that is what you see in terms of chances.

- PT21


Tanking doesn't improve your chances of winning. It's more likely that you don't win then you do. Buffalo has drafted in the top 10 8 out the last 11 years. They're no where near contending. Edmonton has drafted in the top 10 9 out of the last 11 years. They're not a contender.

All picking high does is improve your chances of getting a star player. It does not always improve your chances of winning.

Rebuilding is a subjective term. One could say with the moves the Flyers are going to make this off season, after a disappointing season last year, that they are rebuilding.

This is confusing drafting high with having a team of better players. You don't just build a team with one high draft choice. If you fail to build the team around an elite player or two, then all you have is an elite player or two. We've seen that countless times over the years.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jun 22 @ 7:00 PM ET
You have no plan.

You just say resign him. Then that's it.

- Captain_Ahab


No again, if the scope of the conversation is whether to resign Couturier or not, then I just discuss resigning him. If you want to talk about other issues such as the cap and what to do about that. That's a different conversation. This is wasting my time.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jun 22 @ 7:01 PM ET
Who knows. They’d be a different team. To me being a Stanley Cup team involves a little magic. It’s not about one player. It’s about how they fit together. Maybe he’d throw the balance off? I don’t follow the Islanders enough to know what loosing him and the $10 mil he was going to be paid allowed them to do.
- Dkos


You're right, we don't know but it's not a stretch to say that some more offense would help them.
Captain_Ahab
Joined: 03.23.2017

Jun 22 @ 7:06 PM ET
No again, if the scope of the conversation is whether to resign Couturier or not, then I just discuss resigning him. If you want to talk about other issues such as the cap and what to do about that. That's a different conversation. This is wasting my time.
- MJL



You have been asked multiple times and never answer.

You just repeat the same thing over and over. Resign Couturier. Resign Couturier.

You never offered any plan or idea.

You still don't.

You could right now.

And again, you don't.
Dkos
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Gritty, PA
Joined: 01.15.2007

Jun 22 @ 7:06 PM ET
The specifics of Couts apart, it is simply so surprising to me that people actually argue with a straight face that tanking/rebuilding/picking high doesn't improve your chances of winning.

I mean, why do we have the draft order to begin with? To ensure long run parity of chances. Just like the salary cap equalizes opportunities in a given year, the draft is designed to equalize it across years.

Teams that pick higher will get better players. Teams with better players will tend to win more. Thats the very way the system was designed. That was its intent. And indeed, that is what you see in terms of chances.

- PT21


I’m no fan of tanking for high picks. Who wants to watch that? I want management to make the team better. If that means trading a good player rather than signing him for into his late 30s I’m all in.
Stayin alive
Joined: 06.10.2021

Jun 22 @ 7:06 PM ET
Tanking doesn't improve your chances of winning. It's more likely that you don't win then you do. Buffalo has drafted in the top 10 8 out the last 11 years. They're no where near contending. Edmonton has drafted in the top 10 9 out of the last 11 years. They're not a contender.

All picking high does is improve your chances of getting a star player. It does not always improve your chances of winning.

Rebuilding is a subjective term. One could say with the moves the Flyers are going to make this off season, after a disappointing season last year, that they are rebuilding.

This is confusing drafting high with having a team of better players. You don't just build a team with one high draft choice. If you fail to build the team around an elite player or two, then all you have is an elite player or two. We've seen that countless times over the years.

- MJL


This team has plenty of good players. It lacks elite talent. You need both. How does philly obtain elite talent with the roster and cap the way it is.

Offer a PLAN.

Some say blow it up and tank… agree or not that is a PLAN

Some say trade assets young or old. Agree or not that is a PLAN.

DO YOU EVEN KNOW WHAT A PLAN IS?


Maybe that’s the problem
Stayin alive
Joined: 06.10.2021

Jun 22 @ 7:12 PM ET
I’m no fan of tanking for high picks. Who wants to watch that? I want management to make the team better. If that means trading a good player rather than signing him for into his late 30s I’m all in.
- Dkos

Generally I agree. Although thinking back being how bad our farm system was and the contracts hexy had to try to move I would’ve been on board for a tank and traded g Jake in their primes and used that toward the future. In other words only with very few young talent would I tank
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Jun 22 @ 7:13 PM ET
I’m no fan of tanking for high picks. Who wants to watch that? I want management to make the team better. If that means trading a good player rather than signing him for into his late 30s I’m all in.
- Dkos



I cannot deny that watching a bottom feeding team is no fun.

But there is a distinction between saying: I want my team to provide me with entertainment and I want my team to win.

That is honestly the crux of the matter. The more you veer towards the latter, the more sympathetic you will be to the argument that higher picks gives you higher odds. The more you veer towards the former, the less you will be willing to be patient during the years.



Stayin alive
Joined: 06.10.2021

Jun 22 @ 7:14 PM ET
Tanking doesn't improve your chances of winning. It's more likely that you don't win then you do. Buffalo has drafted in the top 10 8 out the last 11 years. They're no where near contending. Edmonton has drafted in the top 10 9 out of the last 11 years. They're not a contender.

All picking high does is improve your chances of getting a star player. It does not always improve your chances of winning.

Rebuilding is a subjective term. One could say with the moves the Flyers are going to make this off season, after a disappointing season last year, that they are rebuilding.

This is confusing drafting high with having a team of better players. You don't just build a team with one high draft choice. If you fail to build the team around an elite player or two, then all you have is an elite player or two. We've seen that countless times over the years.

- MJL

And if build a team with just good players and no elite player or say just 1 then you get the islanders at best…. And in a game 5 you see what the result is. And we’ve seen this over and over again. Coots isn’t elite. No one on team is.
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Jun 22 @ 7:19 PM ET
Tanking doesn't improve your chances of winning. It's more likely that you don't win then you do. Buffalo has drafted in the top 10 8 out the last 11 years. They're no where near contending. Edmonton has drafted in the top 10 9 out of the last 11 years. They're not a contender.

All picking high does is improve your chances of getting a star player. It does not always improve your chances of winning.

Rebuilding is a subjective term. One could say with the moves the Flyers are going to make this off season, after a disappointing season last year, that they are rebuilding.

This is confusing drafting high with having a team of better players. You don't just build a team with one high draft choice. If you fail to build the team around an elite player or two, then all you have is an elite player or two. We've seen that countless times over the years.

- MJL


Its more likely you don't win with any strategy in sports. That is the reality of a 32 team league and the randomness of sports.

The issue, again, is which is the best among the existing strategies. Not whether any strategy is more likely to produce desired results than failure. If it was the latter, you would have to disqualify every strategy

And since you have again trotted out the examples of Buffalo, here are some relevant concepts:

https://en.wikipedia.org/...ction#Comparing_fractions

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