Once again dude, the "best chance" can ONLY be refuted by looking at all the data and actually looking at chance from that data. A single observation, or even a handful, cannot refute the chance argument.

Come up with 5 players from each cup winning team that you would considered to be essential to their success. Call this critical/essential players the core of the team or the heart of the team or what you will. Their definition is that without them you would not have won the cup.

Then see what fraction of them come from the top five positions in the draft as opposed to any other five positions in the remainder of the draft. You will likely find that the top five contributes towards this core at a rate which is about 40 times the rate of any other five positions in the draft.

That is an argument for the best chance. Because by your own construction you have constructed a essential core of players without whom the team would not have won and you find that the contribution in the top five towards that core is many magnitudes higher than any other part of the draft. That is what chance means.
- PT21

EDIT: observe bold

Not following the conversation. It's about the top 5 most important players on a Cup winning team and how they were acquired.
- MJL

Someone can put this to rest by checking say last 25 years cup winning teams and how many teams had at least 1 top 5 pick on roster. I’d bet all 25 had at least 1 top 5 pick. And if that’s the case I think the argument ends there. Must have too 5 pick and build from there

Let's go back one more year and do the Pens

Sydney Crosby 1st overall
Evgeny Malkin 1st overall
Kris Letang 62nd overall
Phil Kessel Acquired by trade
Jake Guentzal 77th overall


Honorable mention is the goaltenders.

M Fleury 1st overall Played 15 games .924 2.56
M Murray 83rd overall Played 11 games .937 1.70

Murray was the better goaltender if you want to use a goalie.

If the Islanders win the cup, they will be the first team i can think of, that won without an elite player. Everyone else has one, and had #1 picks
- bradster

Barzal is close. I think if he played with a different team, it could raise his point totals.

Again, this is the wrong argument. It's mixing the argument that the best way to get a top player is to draft in the top 5 with drafting a player with a top 5 pick as the most important aspect of a cup winning team. That is not accurate. Those same teams that you want to look at would not have won without the quality depth below them. I'd argue that the quality depth on the roster is equally if not more important.

Top 5 players on the last 3 Cup winners

TB Lightining

Victor Hedman 2nd overall
Nikita Kucherov 58th pick
Brayden Point 79th pick
Andrei Vasilevskiy 18th pick
Ryan McDonagh Acquired in trade

St. Louis Blues

Ryan O'Reilly Acquired in trade
Alex Pietrangelo 4th overall
Jordan Binnington 88th pick
Jaden Schwartz 14th overall
Vladimir Tarasenko 16th overall

Washington Caps

Alex Ovechkin 1st overall
Evgeny Kuznetzov 26th overall
Nik Backstrom 4th overall
John Carlson 27th overall
Brayden Holtby 93rd overall


So out of the 15 top key players in the 3 last Cup winners. 4 were chosen in the top 5 of the draft. Seems to be some holes in your theory.

Go ahead and post another youtube video. How was my grammar?
- MJL

1st bold: No.


2nd bold: Even bigger No.

You guys really need to read more carefully before jumping into things no one has said.

1st bold: No.


2nd bold: Even bigger No.

You guys really need to read more carefully before jumping into things no one has said.
- PT21

LMAO I've provided the evidence from 4 teams so far. How many have you provided? Here is what you said.


"Come up with 5 players from each cup winning team that you would considered to be essential to their success. Call this critical/essential players the core of the team or the heart of the team or what you will. Their definition is that without them you would not have won the cup.

Then see what fraction of them come from the top five positions in the draft as opposed to any other five positions in the remainder of the draft. You will likely find that the top five contributes towards this core at a rate which is about 40 times the rate of any other five positions in the draft."

Not following the conversation. It's about the top 5 most important players on a Cup winning team and how they were acquired.
- MJL

do me a solid and dont comment on any of my posts anymore, im sick of the constant arguing from you.

Someone can put this to rest by checking say last 25 years cup winning teams and how many teams had at least 1 top 5 pick on roster. I’d bet all 25 had at least 1 top 5 pick. And if that’s the case I think the argument ends there. Must have too 5 pick and build from there
- Stayin alive

So going back 25 years I’m pretty confident EVERY cup winner had 1 or mor top 5 pick. The only research needed is 2011 Boston. Have to look that up as no one jumps out trying to remember roster

So going back 25 years I’m pretty confident EVERY cup winner had 1 or mor top 5 pick. The only research needed is 2011 Boston. Have to look that up as no one jumps out trying to remember roster
- Stayin alive

its undeniable you need one. might be an exception to the rule but that would be irrelevant .
Trading for an eichel or jones would change that for the flyers

https://www.nhl.com/lightning/stats/2019-2020/playoffs
Look at last year's cup winner, only 1 top 5 pick (Hedman) on that entire playoff roster! Yes to get an elite player the odds are much better if you pick in the top 5. However to win a cup its not as important as hitting on your draft picks wherever you do draft them (e.g. Kucherov and Point).
- jd250

The problem is this: there is no way to tell which draft picks will work out. All you have are odds.

Look at your own argument of Tampa.

5 critical pieces. Of those 5, one is a top 5 pick.

4 critical pieces out of remaining 250 odd drafted and undrafted players.

So, lets compute the chances from this one example just for illustration:

Chance that a top 5 drafted player in any year turns out to be a critical piece for Tampa: 0.2

Chance that a player drafted outside the top 5 (in any year) turns out to be a critical piece for Tampa: 4 out of 250, which is 0.016

What does this mean? That the chance of a critical piece coming from the top of the draft for Tampa is about 12 times more likely than anywhere else in the draft.

Your example proves the kind of logic I have been using here.

So going back 25 years I’m pretty confident EVERY cup winner had 1 or mor top 5 pick. The only research needed is 2011 Boston. Have to look that up as no one jumps out trying to remember roster
- Stayin alive

Researched it. Yep they had Horton 3rd overall pick. There you have it folks easy 10 minute look up. All 25 of othe last 25 cup winning teams had at least 1 top 5 pick on their roster.

The problem is this: there is no way to tell which draft picks will work out. All you have are odds.

Look at your own argument of Tampa.

5 critical pieces. Of those 5, one is a top 5 pick.

4 critical pieces out of remaining 250 odd drafted and undrafted players.

So, lets compute the chances from this one example just for illustration:

Chance that a top 5 drafted player in any year turns out to be a critical piece for Tampa: 0.2

Chance that a player drafted outside the top 5 (in any year) turns out to be a critical piece for Tampa: 4 out of 250, which is 0.016

What does this mean? That the chance of a critical piece coming from the top of the draft for Tampa is about 12 times more likely than anywhere else in the draft.

Your example proves the kind of logic I have been using here.
- PT21

thats a really big problem, but maybe it works for 3 of the top 5?? i dont know but feel like someone will correct me

LMAO I've provided the evidence from 4 teams so far. How many have you provided? Here is what you said.


"Come up with 5 players from each cup winning team that you would considered to be essential to their success. Call this critical/essential players the core of the team or the heart of the team or what you will. Their definition is that without them you would not have won the cup.

Then see what fraction of them come from the top five positions in the draft as opposed to any other five positions in the remainder of the draft. You will likely find that the top five contributes towards this core at a rate which is about 40 times the rate of any other five positions in the draft."
- MJL

MJL, no offense my friend, but I cannot wait interminably for the light bulb to go on. I provided my post first: you didn't read it properly. I posted a response again, bolding the relevant part. Now you actually quote the relevant part, and it still doesn't dawn on you that it doesn't say what you think it says.

Very sorry to learn of the passing of Rene Robert this evening. He was an avid golfer down here in Punta Gorda for many years. A great player for the French Connection and perfect gentleman. I remember him scoring that OT goal in the fog game like it was yesterday. RIP Rene.

thats a really big problem, but maybe it works for 3 of the top 5?? i dont know but feel like someone will correct me
- bradster

I am sorry, I don't quite follow what you are asking. Sorry...

Next two Cup champs



15/16 Pens

Phil Kessel Acquired in trade
Sydney Crosby 1st overall
Evgeny Malkin 1st overall
Kris Letang 62nd overall
Matt Murray 83rd overall


14/15 Chicago Blackhawks

Patrick Kane 1st overall
Jonathon Toews 3rd overall
Duncan Keith 54th overall
Marian Hossa UFA signing
Corey Crawford 52nd overall

So out of the last 5 Cup winning teams, looking at the top 4 players on each team. Total of 25 players. 10 were drafted in the top 5.

its undeniable you need one. might be an exception to the rule but that would be irrelevant .
Trading for an eichel or jones would change that for the flyers
- bradster

It’s very relevant because there’s only 2 on philly now and they both blow. Patrick a bust and Jvr is meh that most want to be taken in Ed. The point is there zero doubt the %is higher to get that talent picking top 5. And without it you aren’t winning cup. When people say we’ll look at all these others and you don’t “need” top 5 that’s actually wrong. Just looking back 25 for 25 that’s pretty clear proof even then doesn’t guarantee you win but pretty much without guaranteed to NOT WIN

MJL, no offense my friend, but I cannot wait interminably for the light bulb to go on. I provided my post first: you didn't read it properly. I posted a response again, bolding the relevant part. Now you actually quote the relevant part, and it still doesn't dawn on you that it doesn't say what you think it says.
- PT21

Researched it. Yep they had Horton 3rd overall pick. There you have it folks easy 10 minute look up. All 25 of othe last 25 cup winning teams had at least 1 top 5 pick on their roster.
- Stayin alive

Problem is, probably every team had a top 5 pick. So, this is a wash.

Better way: narrow it down to most critical players of cup winning teams. Then see what rate the top of draft contribute to this nucleus compared to rest of draft.

It’s very relevant because there’s only 2 on philly now and they both blow. Patrick a bust and Jvr is meh that most want to be taken in Ed. The point is there zero doubt the %is higher to get that talent picking top 5. And without it you aren’t winning cup. When people say we’ll look at all these others and you don’t “need” top 5 that’s actually wrong. Just looking back 25 for 25 that’s pretty clear proof even then doesn’t guarantee you win but pretty much without guaranteed to NOT WIN
- Stayin alive

i meant its irrelevant if there was an exception to the rule. if we get jjones or eichel that would make 3 lol

The problem is this: there is no way to tell which draft picks will work out. All you have are odds.

Look at your own argument of Tampa.

5 critical pieces. Of those 5, one is a top 5 pick.

4 critical pieces out of remaining 250 odd drafted and undrafted players.

So, lets compute the chances from this one example just for illustration:

Chance that a top 5 drafted player in any year turns out to be a critical piece for Tampa: 0.2

Chance that a player drafted outside the top 5 (in any year) turns out to be a critical piece for Tampa: 4 out of 250, which is 0.016

What does this mean? That the chance of a critical piece coming from the top of the draft for Tampa is about 12 times more likely than anywhere else in the draft.

Your example proves the kind of logic I have been using here.
- PT21

I'm waiting for the light bulb to go on. Nobody has refuted that the best chance to get an elite player is with a top 5 pick. Not sure how many times that has to be said.

Next two Cup champs



15/16 Pens

Phil Kessel Acquired in trade
Sydney Crosby 1st overall
Evgeny Malkin 1st overall
Kris Letang 62nd overall
Matt Murray 83rd overall


14/15 Chicago Blackhawks

Patrick Kane 1st overall
Jonathon Toews 3rd overall
Duncan Keith 54th overall
Marian Hossa UFA signing
Corey Crawford 52nd overall

So out of the last 5 Cup winning teams, looking at the top 4 players on each team. Total of 25 players. 10 were drafted in the top 5.
- MJL

You definitely aren’t educated. He said vs REMAINDER OF DRAFT. What he saying your gonna find top 5 picks. So if 1,2,3 players of the top 5 for team came from top 5 that % is 25% for 1 40%for 2 60% for 3. So if 4 came from out side of top 5picks you have to figure the % so 4/260 1.5% of drafted players outside of top 5. He’s saying on average 40% more likely to have top 5 players. He is correct or close. If you want to give a % of error of 15% the number would be roughly 34%.

Bottom line…. In all the last 25 cup winners they ALL HAD AT LEAST 1 TOP 5 pick

Next two Cup champs



15/16 Pens

Phil Kessel Acquired in trade
Sydney Crosby 1st overall
Evgeny Malkin 1st overall
Kris Letang 62nd overall
Matt Murray 83rd overall


14/15 Chicago Blackhawks

Patrick Kane 1st overall
Jonathon Toews 3rd overall
Duncan Keith 54th overall
Marian Hossa UFA signing
Corey Crawford 52nd overall

So out of the last 5 Cup winning teams, looking at the top 4 players on each team. Total of 25 players. 10 were drafted in the top 5.
- MJL

That would over a span of about 15 years, say (making it larger or smaller would not really change the argument).

That means contribution of top 5 in draft to critical player list is:

10 out of 75 (=15 ×5).

Contribution of non top 5 players to critical player list is: 15 players out of all remaining positions over 15 years which is 3750 (250 × 15)

In other words, chance that critical player comes from top 5 of draft is:

[(10/75)/(15/3750)] = 33.3 times the chance it comes from outside it.

I appreciate you doing the work for me.

Next two Cup champs



15/16 Pens

Phil Kessel Acquired in trade
Sydney Crosby 1st overall
Evgeny Malkin 1st overall
Kris Letang 62nd overall
Matt Murray 83rd overall


14/15 Chicago Blackhawks

Patrick Kane 1st overall
Jonathon Toews 3rd overall
Duncan Keith 54th overall
Marian Hossa UFA signing
Corey Crawford 52nd overall

So out of the last 5 Cup winning teams, looking at the top 4 players on each team. Total of 25 players. 10 were drafted in the top 5.
- MJL

You definitely aren’t educated. He said vs REMAINDER OF DRAFT. What he saying your gonna find top 5 picks. So if 1,2,3 players of the top 5 for team came from top 5 that % is 25% for 1 40%for 2 60% for 3. So if 4 came from out side of top 5picks you have to figure the % so 4/260 1.5% of drafted players outside of top 5. He’s saying on average 40% more likely to have top 5 players. He is correct or close. If you want to give a % of error of 15% the number would be roughly 34%.

Bottom line…. In all the last 25 cup winners they ALL HAD AT LEAST 1 TOP 5 pick

What do you know Caulfield scored again. This will be another yolk on the brow moment for the Flyers not drafting him. Take it to the bank.