That would over a span of about 15 years, say (making it larger or smaller would not really change the argument).

That means contribution of top 5 in draft to critical player list is:

10 out of 75 (=15 ×5).

Contribution of non top 5 players to critical player list is: 15 players out of all remaining positions over 15 years which is 3750 (250 × 15)

In other words, chance that critical player comes from top 5 of draft is:


- PT21[(10/75)/(15/3750)] = 33.3 times the chance it comes from outside it.

I appreciate you doing the work for me.

It was obvious what you were up to and built yourself an escape hatch. As usual, you're making a disingenuous argument. I looked at 25 players on the last 5 Cup teams. 10 out of 25 were drafted in the top 5. That means that 40% were drafted in the top 5, 60% outside the top 5.

Again, if you want to say that the best way to get an elite player is with a top 5 pick, you would be correct. If you want to say that pretty much every cup team has at least one elite player, you would be correct. What is not correct is to say that having that elite player is the most important part of building a Cup team. That is clearly not correct. If we keep looking deeper at Cup winners, we'll find that this probably holds true which completely blows out your theory on having to tank to build a winning team. You've been proven wrong.

That would over a span of about 15 years, say (making it larger or smaller would not really change the argument).

That means contribution of top 5 in draft to critical player list is:

10 out of 75 (=15 ×5).

Contribution of non top 5 players to critical player list is: 15 players out of all remaining positions over 15 years which is 3750 (250 × 15)

In other words, chance that critical player comes from top 5 of draft is:


- PT21[(10/75)/(15/3750)] = 33.3 times the chance it comes from outside it.

I appreciate you doing the work for me.

I broke it down for him too he won’t get it. A basic statistics glass in college actually high school should work. Lmao did it a little different tho. Anyways swami looking good for game 5 go habs

It was obvious what you were up to and built yourself an escape hatch. As ususal, you're making a disingenuous argument. I looked at 25 players on the last 5 Cup teams. 10 out of 25 were drafted in the top 5. That means that 40% were drafted in the top 5, 60% outside the top 5.

Again, if you want to say that the best way to get an elite player is with a top 5 pick, you would be correct. If you want to say that pretty much every cup team has at least one elite player, you would be correct. What is not correct is to say that having that elite player is the most important part of building a Cup team. That is clearly not correct.
- MJL

What he’s saying is because you can’t comprehend is as it relates to philly is that they DONT HAVE THE ELITE PLAYER.. and the highest % way to obtain one without trade or Fa is to draft 1 in top 5. That is correct. You are correct that that’s not only way.

Go to casino with $100 and look to make $
Play slot 3% chance to win (draft outside top 5)
Play blackjack 49% to win ( pick in top 5)

You sir will play slot everytime.

Price!!!!!

Come you philthy fans come watch habs! Watch some real team. That’s how you build. Top g
Top d
Bunch of young fast skill with hard working vets

It was obvious what you were up to and built yourself an escape hatch. As usual, you're making a disingenuous argument. I looked at 25 players on the last 5 Cup teams. 10 out of 25 were drafted in the top 5. That means that 40% were drafted in the top 5, 60% outside the top 5.


- MJL

Yes, MJL, 10 of the 25 critical players came from the top 5. Over 15 years, that is 75 top 5 picks. So, 10 out of 75 top 5 picks.

Over the same 15 years, there is a pool of at least 250 players who are taken by teams and are outside the top 5 (I am including the undrafted signings like Kucherov). Thus, 15 of the critical players came from 3750 (15× 250) possibilities.

Now, which is greater? 10 out of 75? Or 15 out of 3750? The answer: the former is 33 times the latter!

This is not an escape hatch. This is what is meant by the word "chance".

The funny thing is, I said this once, then bolded it, then repeated it, then pointed it out. And you still didn't pay attention to what I was saying.

Its truly incredible.

I broke it down for him too he won’t get it. A basic statistics glass in college actually high school should work. Lmao did it a little different tho. Anyways swami looking good for game 5 go habs
- Stayin alive

College? High school? I thought comparisons of fractions were taught in 4th grade?

Yes, MJL, 10 of the 25 critical players came from the top 5. Over 15 years, that is 75 top 5 picks. So, 10 out of 75 top 5 picks.

Over the same 15 years, there is a pool of at least 250 players who are taken by teams and are outside the top 5 (I am including the undrafted signings like Kucherov). Thus, 15 of the critical players came from 3750 (15× 250) possibilities.

Now, which is greater? 10 out of 75? Or 15 out of 3750? The answer: the former is 33 times the latter!

This is not an escape hatch. This is what is meant by the word "chance".

The funny thing is, I said this once, then bolded it, then repeated it, then pointed it out. And you still didn't pay attention to what I was saying.

Its truly incredible.
- PT21

You're right it is incredible. Incredibly disingenuous. The only top 5 picks were looking at are those that played on a Cup winning team. Not all top 5 picks from every draft over a period of time. LOL It is an escape hatch. The only pool of players to look at is the top 5 critical players on each Cup team. Your statement "Come up with 5 players from each cup winning team that you would considered to be essential to their success." That sets the pool of players that we're looking at. Over a period of 5 years that I looked at, that's a pool of 25 players! I payed attention to what you were saying and knew exactly what you were going to do. This is just your way of worming out of it when you've been proven to be hopelessly wrong. 60% of those top 5 critical players on the last 5 Cup winners came from outside of the top 5 picks in the draft.

Kucherov was not an undrafted signing. LOL. He was a 2nd round pick by TB.

College? High school? I thought comparisons of fractions were taught in 4th grade?
- PT21

True. Lol

Yes, MJL, 10 of the 25 critical players came from the top 5. Over 15 years, that is 75 top 5 picks. So, 10 out of 75 top 5 picks.

Over the same 15 years, there is a pool of at least 250 players who are taken by teams and are outside the top 5 (I am including the undrafted signings like Kucherov). Thus, 15 of the critical players came from 3750 (15× 250) possibilities.

Now, which is greater? 10 out of 75? Or 15 out of 3750? The answer: the former is 33 times the latter!

This is not an escape hatch. This is what is meant by the word "chance".

The funny thing is, I said this once, then bolded it, then repeated it, then pointed it out. And you still didn't pay attention to what I was saying.

Its truly incredible.
- PT21

He believes in 3% slot play vs 49% black Jack play.

You're right it is incredible. Incredibly disingenuous. The only top 5 picks were looking at are those that played on a Cup winning team. Not all top 5 picks from every draft over a period of time. LOL It is an escape hatch. The only pool of players to look at is the top 5 critical players on each Cup team. Your statement "Come up with 5 players from each cup winning team that you would considered to be essential to their success." That sets the pool of players that we're looking at. Over a period of 5 years that I looked at, that's a pool of 25 players! I payed attention to what you were saying and knew exactly what you were going to do. This is just your way of worming out of it when you've been proven to be hopelessly wrong.

Kucherov was not an undrafted signing. LOL. He was a 2nd round pick by TB.
- MJL

I read your first para twice and it is my urgent and sincere advice that you undergo a psychiatric evaluation for your own good.

You are quite right about Kucherov. I keep confusing his draft position with Martin St. Louis.

College? High school? I thought comparisons of fractions were taught in 4th grade?
- PT21

Price 16/16 oh yeah that’s another over .920. Lol

He believes in 3% slot play vs 49% black Jack play.
- Stayin alive

To be honest, I am not sure he even comprehends what chances mean.

I have to give you props for the Habs call. I truly thought Vegas would rout them.

Price 16/16 oh yeah that’s another over .920. Lol
- Stayin alive

(frank)ing jinx I am lol

I read your first para twice and it is my urgent and sincere advice that you undergo a psychiatric evaluation for your own good.

You are quite right about Kucherov. I keep confusing his draft position with Martin St. Louis.
- PT21

There is some subjectivity to it in choosing who the top 5 critical players are on each team but I think I was very fair about it. 60% of the players that I chose as the top 5 critical players on the last 5 Cup teams were acquired by other methods than a top 5 draft pick. You cannot dispute that. If you want to argue how I selected the 5 players, go right ahead but that won't be very successful. If we continue to look further at Cup winners, I think that ratio will hold pretty true. You now want to expand the pool of players we're looking at to every player in the draft and expand the scope to chance. It's comical.

To be honest, I am not sure he even comprehends what chances mean.

I have to give you props for the Habs call. I truly thought Vegas would rout them.
- PT21

I enjoy watching vegas becuase they straight up attack. And pretty balanced team. And flower usually great. Exciting atmosphere in Vegas. But honestly I think top end talent a little lacking.

Montreal match them and then some speed wise. D better. Young guys right with them. Honestly thought series could go either way. Like swami said it come down to price save % honestly hope habs win and beat lightning just because clear cap circumvent

To be honest, I am not sure he even comprehends what chances mean.

I have to give you props for the Habs call. I truly thought Vegas would rout them.
- PT21

Tomahawks comment is looking better by the day. Still two more games to go though.

There is some subjectivity to it in choosing who the top 5 critical players are on each team but I think I was very fair about it. 60% of the players that I chose as the top 5 critical players on the last 5 Cup teams were acquired by other methods than a top 5 draft pick. You cannot dispute that. If you want to argue how I selected the 5 players, go right ahead but that won't be very successful. If we continue to look further at Cup winners, I think that ratio will hold pretty true. You now want to expand the pool of players we're looking at to every player in the draft and expand the scope to chance. It's comical.
- MJL

Wow I give up. You actually, truly still dont get it.

I enjoy watching vegas becuase they straight up attack. And pretty balanced team. And flower usually great. Exciting atmosphere in Vegas. But honestly I think top end talent a little lacking.

Montreal match them and then some speed wise. D better. Young guys right with them. Honestly thought series could go either way. Like swami said it come down to price save % honestly hope habs win and beat lightning just because clear cap circumvent
- Stayin alive

No! 😡😡😡

There is some subjectivity to it in choosing who the top 5 critical players are on each team but I think I was very fair about it. 60% of the players that I chose as the top 5 critical players on the last 5 Cup teams were acquired by other methods than a top 5 draft pick. You cannot dispute that. If you want to argue how I selected the 5 players, go right ahead but that won't be very successful. If we continue to look further at Cup winners, I think that ratio will hold pretty true. You now want to expand the pool of players we're looking at to every player in the draft and expand the scope to chance. It's comical.
- MJL

Can you do next 5 cup teams to see if it still plays out like your saying

Wow I give up. You actually, truly still dont get it.
- PT21

Oh believe me, I get it. You're making the mistake in thinking that I don't understand how you're trying to spin it after the results weren't what you thought it would be. The facts have betrayed you.


Good night. See you tomorrow.

No! 😡😡😡
- PT21

I don’t think it’ll happen. Speed and elite talent almost always wins out. I truly believe that. But if habs get there I think it’ll be great series.

Come on habs!!! Counter punch and knock these (frank)ers out !!!

To be honest, I am not sure he even comprehends what chances mean.

I have to give you props for the Habs call. I truly thought Vegas would rout them.
- PT21

Just keep telling him to do the next 5 teams. Keep him busy. He will never get it you know this I know this

Wow I give up. You actually, truly still dont get it.
- PT21

Never will…. Now you see why I say mjl is bill? Driving hits. Because no one can be like this. I mean truly amazing