Sean Maloughney: Will RNH Regress Like Kyle Turris

RNH will regress, let him walk to the Rangers!

Meh. I mean if you’re going off a draft report sure. A lot of players are incredibly comparable. But I don’t think RNH and Turris are comparable at all over the course their careers with RNH being significantly better and more consistent throughout his career. If anything I wouldn’t even say Turris so much as declined as catching lightning in a bottle for a few years out of his career where he was playing top line minutes and PP1(due to being the only option, and I actually always liked what Turris could potentially be) inflating what has been a lack luster career for his draft position. I don’t really disagree with the point you’re making about signing aging players to high end contracts with a lot of term, but it’s a bad comparison. Just a quick search shows Adam Henrique is probably the most comparable player to RNH currently in the league and his deal is 5.875 for the next few years with a MNTC signed at 29 for 5 years. Depending on NTC RNH value is probably 5.5-6 on a 4-6 year deal probably more on the open market.

Sean Maloughney: Will RNH Regress Like Kyle Turris
- freelancer

I’ve always liked Nuge but he seems to have become a specialist. Good special teams guy but invisible at even strength.

Nug was overpaid @ $6 this year based on what he put up... however part of that blame should be put on Tippett by his stupidity in keeping McDavid and Draisaitl together all year instead of trying to balance the scoring between 2 lines. (ask Bsoton how loading one line has worked out for them in the playoffs the past 6 years). Giving Nug no one to play with doomed his year from the beginning... when your surrounding cast is Zack Kassian, James Neal , etc...pretty hard to put up close to a point a game

Nug was overpaid @ $6 this year based on what he put up... however part of that blame should be put on Tippett by his stupidity in keeping McDavid and Draisaitl together all year instead of trying to balance the scoring between 2 lines. (ask Bsoton how loading one line has worked out for them in the playoffs the past 6 years). Giving Nug no one to play with doomed his year from the beginning... when your surrounding cast is Zack Kassian, James Neal , etc...pretty hard to put up close to a point a game
- shanerationX

Nuge spent half the season on McDavid's line not producing while Draisaitl ran the 2nd line with Kahun and Yamamoto. That excuse doesn't fly.

Nuge spent half the season on McDavid's line not producing while Draisaitl ran the 2nd line with Kahun and Yamamoto. That excuse doesn't fly.
- MaximumBone

I certainly hope that CapMaster Kenny signs him to a long term deal at at least $5.75m. After all, Neal is making that and warming the bench, er I mean popcorn. Maybe the blame should be on Kahun, who obviously didn't mesh with Nuge. Or it ws the juice this season, not the water.

Seriously, I am interested to see what Kenny does to re-make the team. Depth was putrid last season and expecting farm hands to push you over the hill doesn't help. Some good players available in FA, but I think the best approach is trade prospects that are still too far from helping for a win-now attitude. Wasting the top 2's best years.

Put up a graph of the top 200 NHL performers over a 10 year NHL career. There will be very few exceptions. Peak performance, as measured by points or goals or assists per game always occurs between the ages of 23 and 28 with ages 24 and 25 often being best career years. After age 28, the decline in production is consistent with aging and often dramatic.

So, why would any team sign a player to a long term deal after age 28?

For far too long, NHL teams reward players for past performance.

Oilers have it right with McDavid and Draisaitl. Pay them now for what they are capable of doing in the peak performance years of their career.

The hard part is be prepared to walk away from every UFA after age 28 unless they are ready to accept less money on a short term deal.

There is always a place in the line up for veteran players. But not when the price exceeds their actually capacity for peak production.

This year, at age 24, was McDavid's best (so far) at 1.875 ppg. Draisaitl at 1.549 ppg at age 24 was a little better than the 1.500 ppg for this year at age 25.

The great one had his record year at 2.650 ppg at age 25. Mario was 23 when he did 2.618 ppg. Jagr was 26 when he had his best year at 1.567 ppg. But Jagr is one of the exceptional physical wonders that was able to come close to his peak years after turning age 30.

Messier is also something of a physical wonder having his best year at age 29 with 1.632 ppg.

Crosby is most curious. He had his very best year at 1.518 ppg when he was only 19 years old. Did injuries prevent him from reaching the higher performance levels of traditional peak production years?

Turris did .780 ppg in his best year at age 25. This year at age 31 he output was diminished to a mere .185 ppg. Once a player hits peak production they will begin to fall off and the reduction in output from one year to the next can be substantial.

Nugent-Hopkins was .938 ppg at age 26. This year he fell off to .673 ppg. In relation to age and declining production Turris is not worth more than $4m on a short term deal.

Cannot stress enough how important it is at this time for the Oilers to go all in this year in order to take advantage of McDavid and Draisaitl being at the very top of their game.

While I do think RNH will regress, I don't see Turris as a comparable and I don't see him regressing as much as Turris.

Where I do think they are the same (The same could be said about any player really). Is that if they are confident, they can both put up a ton of points, but when they are down, they are very down.

Basically their highs are very high and their lows are very low.

For RNH, I'd keep him if I were Edmonton. You know where he fits, you know you can rely on him and you can build around him.

While I do think RNH will regress, I don't see Turris as a comparable and I don't see him regressing as much as Turris.

Where I do think they are the same (The same could be said about any player really). Is that if they are confident, they can both put up a ton of points, but when they are down, they are very down.

Basically their highs are very high and their lows are very low.

For RNH, I'd keep him if I were Edmonton. You know where he fits, you know you can rely on him and you can build around him.
- Maverick1818

I like RNH, always have, but at this point unless he's accepting a AAV not much over 5 per, you need to look at other options.

Not an Oilers fan but if the Oilers walk away from RNH they'll need two top 6 wingers, could they get say two of Saad, Tatar or Coleman for a bit more then what they'd pay Nuge? Probably not but if it's possible that's probably the moves to make and that is if those guys are willing to sign with the Oilers, those guys all come with the same risks as RNH does.
Holland really needs to add one or two top 6 wingers and find some better bottom six forwards, a guy like Armia would be a great addition.