Jeremy Laura: Updated Mock Drafts - Wallstedt, Eklund, Edvinsson

If you have all-star depth at center, both wings, and defense, some of the best under-25 players in the world locked up long term on team-friendly deals, the reigning Hart, Art Ross, Selke, and Norris Trophy winners already on your roster …

still don’t take a goalie sixth overall.

Correct, in the past 20 years, 9 goalies have been taken in the top 10, only 3 had good careers, which is probably a pretty low percentage for top 10 picks.

If you have all-star depth at center, both wings, and defense, some of the best under-25 players in the world locked up long term on team-friendly deals, the reigning Hart, Art Ross, Selke, and Norris Trophy winners already on your roster …

still don’t take a goalie sixth overall.
- Sven22

Go for Hughs, Eklund, Edvinsson, or the dark horse McTavish!

Matt Tkachuk rumored to be trade bait...although rumored to go to St Louis, should Stevie make a bid for him? Larks, Bert and Matt would be a fearsome line to play against!

Matt Tkachuk rumored to be trade bait...although rumored to go to St Louis, should Stevie make a bid for him? Larks, Bert and Matt would be a fearsome line to play against!
- HenryHockey

I would love Tkachuk. I'd think they would want Bert back as he has a similar style.

Not sure what other packages would intrigue Calgary. Washington first, Fabbri, +?

I would love Tkachuk. I'd think they would want Bert back as he has a similar style.

Not sure what other packages would intrigue Calgary. Washington first, Fabbri, +?
- DRW1991

I would venture to say they would want either #6 OA and Fabrri, or #22 OA and Vrana And I would rather your suggestion of #22, Fabrri and the plus, probably the Oilers 2nd.....but they would press for a better player than Fabrri...which they should. Maybe this one is better left alone.

I would love Tkachuk. I'd think they would want Bert back as he has a similar style.

Not sure what other packages would intrigue Calgary. Washington first, Fabbri, +?
- DRW1991

Maybe....Giordano (retain 1.5M) and , Tkachuk for #22 and Fabrri......
The cap dump would allow the Flames to shop FA, and MG, although his offence has regressed is still good at D and would fill a LD slot. But the Flames don't NEED to dump cap, unless they have an FA target or a trade that takes on more salary then they trade out.

Jeremy, is it time to que up the Vegas trade article?????

Vegas has a bunch to trade for and if they lose will they blow it up some what??

If you have all-star depth at center, both wings, and defense, some of the best under-25 players in the world locked up long term on team-friendly deals, the reigning Hart, Art Ross, Selke, and Norris Trophy winners already on your roster …

still don’t take a goalie sixth overall.

Carey Price went 5th overall... just sayin

I'm leaning toward Center or LD. If Edvinsson is available, that's my lock. Goalies are voodoo. I do love Larkin, but he isn't 1C material. If there's potential to get a 1C, that's my second choice.

Jeremy, is it time to que up the Vegas trade article?????

Vegas has a bunch to trade for and if they lose will they blow it up some what??
- HenryHockey

Vegas will go after Eichel if they lose this round.

I would venture to say they would want either #6 OA and Fabrri, or #22 OA and Vrana And I would rather your suggestion of #22, Fabrri and the plus, probably the Oilers 2nd.....but they would press for a better player than Fabrri...which they should. Maybe this one is better left alone.
- HenryHockey

With the plethera of 2nds I wouldn't be opposed to #22, Fabrri, Oilers 2nd, and a 2nd or 3rd next year. Can even toss Svech or Cholo in there

Carey Price went 5th overall... just sayin
- archromat

The point isn't that drafting a goalie with a top pick never pans out. The point is that they pan out at far lower rates than skaters do. And that, while the vast majority of elite forwards (and a decent percentage of elite defenders) get picked very early in the first round, there's barely any correlation between draft spot and performance for goalies. Plus many of the league's eventual top goalies were playing for an organization other than the one that drafted them by the time they peaked.

Despite not really filling a need, i'm really hoping Brandt Clarke is still there at 6th. He's not a lefty but looks like he could be the best offensive defenseman out of Power, Hughes and Edvinsson.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nTbWEONGkZ0

With the plethera of 2nds I wouldn't be opposed to #22, Fabrri, Oilers 2nd, and a 2nd or 3rd next year. Can even toss Svech or Cholo in there
- DRW1991

In retrospect, Calgery would be looking for NHLers that can play now, and make an impact. I have not heard that they want a pletera of picks. And further, The M Tkachuk trade is a specific rumor, Matt for Tarasenko ++. Just somebody kicking tires...I may have dragged this out a tad too much. But a Larks, Bert and Matty line would be a dream!

As much as nearly every team picking after 6th would like Wallstedt gone it would be ill-advised. Go BPA/need passing on a goalie so high.

Jeremy, is it time to que up the Vegas trade article?????

Vegas has a bunch to trade for and if they lose will they blow it up some what??
- HenryHockey

This wouldn’t involve a trade- but I wonder what would Alec Martinez want? There has been all this talk about LD. I’ve wondered in the past if he would have interest in coming home. He’ll be 34, so probably looking for his last “good” contract—coming off a 4 mil per contract.

This wouldn’t involve a trade- but I wonder what would Alec Martinez want? There has been all this talk about LD. I’ve wondered in the past if he would have interest in coming home. He’ll be 34, so probably looking for his last “good” contract—coming off a 4 mil per contract.
- Bren4Wings

Over $6M for sure, term will be 3yrs-4yrs, he would hope

Does Stevie sign Nosek and/or Janmark as FA's now????? (Holland draftees) Either one would be great in the bottom 6!

In retrospect, Calgery would be looking for NHLers that can play now, and make an impact. I have not heard that they want a pletera of picks. And further, The M Tkachuk trade is a specific rumor, Matt for Tarasenko ++. Just somebody kicking tires...I may have dragged this out a tad too much. But a Larks, Bert and Matty line would be a dream!
- HenryHockey

Does Calgary really want NHL ready players? If Tkachuk and Johhny Hockey want out, is it time to consider blowing it all up? They go from a middle of the road/fringe playoff team to a top 10 pick most likely.

It's so hard to rationalize any selection because the only thing to go on is what's seen via video (with "some" in-person" observations), and word of mouth. Especially this year. I see the data folks are using to support their view that a goalie isn't a wise choice, and there are compelling arguments. But here's where I am: It takes time to mature a goalie, some say 5 yrs. Honestly, that's right about when we all "think" we'll be contending for the SCPO. Coincidence??

Wallstedt. Do it. We have #22 as well, so we can look for a potential 1C or LD.

Just like folks are saying you can snag a G in UFA/Trade moves, you can do the same for a C or LD.

I dunno, guys. I just feel it's the year to go out on a limb and change the dynamic.

It's so hard to rationalize any selection because the only thing to go on is what's seen via video (with "some" in-person" observations), and word of mouth. Especially this year. I see the data folks are using to support their view that a goalie isn't a wise choice, and there are compelling arguments. But here's where I am: It takes time to mature a goalie, some say 5 yrs. Honestly, that's right about when we all "think" we'll be contending for the SCPO. Coincidence??

Wallstedt. Do it. We have #22 as well, so we can look for a potential 1C or LD.

Just like folks are saying you can snag a G in UFA/Trade moves, you can do the same for a C or LD.

I dunno, guys. I just feel it's the year to go out on a limb and change the dynamic.
- mcmastermike1968

It is so hard to find a 1C or 1LD via UFA/Trade moves. You would have an easier time grabbing a goalie when the team is ready to contend. If Edvinsson is available at 6 I think you take him. If not, best available Center. You can always take Cossa with 22 or hope he falls to early 2nd round.

It's so hard to rationalize any selection because the only thing to go on is what's seen via video (with "some" in-person" observations), and word of mouth. Especially this year. I see the data folks are using to support their view that a goalie isn't a wise choice, and there are compelling arguments. But here's where I am: It takes time to mature a goalie, some say 5 yrs. Honestly, that's right about when we all "think" we'll be contending for the SCPO. Coincidence??

Wallstedt. Do it. We have #22 as well, so we can look for a potential 1C or LD.

Just like folks are saying you can snag a G in UFA/Trade moves, you can do the same for a C or LD.

I dunno, guys. I just feel it's the year to go out on a limb and change the dynamic.
- mcmastermike1968

A few blogs ago I posted a list of the 16 NHL goalies who either finished top 10 in overall save percentage over the last five seasons and/or finished top 3 in Vezina voting at least once in the last five seasons. On that list:

- 9 out of 16 played all or the majority of their best years with an organization other than the one that drafted or originally signed them.
- Only 4 out of 16 were taken in the first round
- Half (8 out of 16) were taken in the fourth round or later (including two undrafted).
- Price and Vasilevskiy are pretty much the only two who were drafted in the first round, stuck with the team that drafted them, AND achieved elite or borderline elite success there.

By contrast, if you look at the guys who populate the scoring leaderboards and get Norris Trophy nominations, you see a lot less team switching and a lot more guys taken high in the first round.

If you're hell-bent on taking a swing on a goalie in the first round, at least use the 22, not the 6.

Again and in addition:

- Goalies are much harder to project
- Goalies are much easier to acquire post-draft
- Goalies are much less reliable from season to season (it’s not unusual for goalies to have excellent stats one year and terrible ones the next)
- Goalies have much more parity across the position (or in other words, if you don’t have one of the absolute top few guys in the game there’s not really that much difference in quality among the remaining options)
- Goalies generally take longer to earn the trust of the coaching staff and get significant playing time, meaning they provide far less excess value during the ELC / RFA phase of their careers than forwards and defenders do on average.