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Forums :: Blog World :: Kevin Francis: What will happen next for Brady Tkachuk and Logan Brown?!
Author Message
HoweHatrick
Joined: 01.02.2014

Sep 14 @ 10:38 AM ET
Unfortunately I'm not as optimistic as you. What you're saying is all based on potential and right now I don't see it. What's on the team right now is about 95% support or mediocre NHL players. Our best players are just better than average. The rest of the players mentioned are all prospects with unknown futures. The coaching competence and philosophy is not going to get them to the next level. The Sens drafting trend in the past 2 years is not geared towards high end skills. If everything remains the same, ownership down to coaching and development, I see them as a bubble team for a long time. Selling hope doesn't do it for me.
- granpa



Panzer_IVA
Ottawa Senators
Location: Ottawa, ON
Joined: 01.02.2018

Sep 14 @ 11:30 AM ET
Report: Sens offer BT 8x8M

https://www.tsn.ca/ottawa...-contract-offer-1.1693414

- HoweHatrick

Ooof... that's steep. I'd prefer something shorter or with a lower AVV. Like 3x6M, or 8x7M. Mind you at least, it doesn't go over the Chabot deal. And if he accepts we get a 'C' for a while.

I wonder if there are any clauses...
Whatisavailable
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 08.20.2021

Sep 14 @ 11:34 AM ET
Report: Sens offer BT 8x8M

https://www.tsn.ca/ottawa...-contract-offer-1.1693414

- HoweHatrick

More nonsense from Garrioch. It's"believed" the Sens have offered blah blah blah....
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Sep 14 @ 11:50 AM ET
Unfortunately I'm not as optimistic as you. What you're saying is all based on potential and right now I don't see it. What's on the team right now is about 95% support or mediocre NHL players. Our best players are just better than average. The rest of the players mentioned are all prospects with unknown futures. The coaching competence and philosophy is not going to get them to the next level. The Sens drafting trend in the past 2 years is not geared towards high end skills. If everything remains the same, ownership down to coaching and development, I see them as a bubble team for a long time. Selling hope doesn't do it for me.
- granpa


I think your a little off today.

If Chabot played for the Oilers he would be a dominate #1 Dman. As talents grow on this team we will discover why Dorion calls Chabot the best Dman in the NHL. If Tkachuk played on an elite team (eg., Colorado) he would rank among the top 5 power forwards in the league and he is only 21 years of age. Stuetzle had a fine rookie season. He showed us the skill and the speed that could propel him into becoming one of the elite speed forwards in the league.

Formenton is already close to being the best defensive forward on the team. He is still a kid and looks like an accomplished veteran on the penalty kill.

Great hope that Sanderson is the shut down Dman that will complement Chabot.

Some great goalie prospects coming through the system At least 3 or 4 guys who will be watched for break out performances this year (Sokolov, Grieg, JBD).

Love where this team is at. Patience is really important over the next while.
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Sep 14 @ 11:56 AM ET
More nonsense from Garrioch. It's"believed" the Sens have offered blah blah blah....
- Whatisavailable


I suspect that is live material directly fed to Garrioch by the Sens. My guess is the Sens have also tabled a 3 year offer at a lower annual salary.

I prefer the 3 year deal.
Octavarium
New York Islanders
Joined: 01.03.2007

Sep 14 @ 12:17 PM ET
I suspect that is live material directly fed to Garrioch by the Sens. My guess is the Sens have also tabled a 3 year offer at a lower annual salary.

I prefer the 3 year deal.

- spatso


Im with Spatso on the Garrioch plant. He doesn't do much real journalism anymore.
But Spatso why do you want to kick this can of worms down the road for three years? You want him to show you? He's gone when he's UFA if we haven't won a cup.
SensFan25
Ottawa Senators
Location: ON
Joined: 08.24.2006

Sep 14 @ 12:18 PM ET

Love where this team is at. Patience is really important over the next while.

- spatso


I believe that Sens fans will be patient for 1 more year while waiting on Sanderson, Pinto, Bernard Docker and Greig to develop into full time NHLers. Stutzle, Tkachuk, Norris, Batherson and Formenton are expected to continue to improve.

Next year it has to be pedal to the medal towards making the playoffs and being competitive in the playoffs.
Sens Writer
Location: Vancouver, BC
Joined: 08.19.2013

Sep 14 @ 12:29 PM ET
Why in the world would you want to trade away Nick Paul? Realistically speaking you're not going to get a better player back unless Dorion voids his contact and goes to work for another team or maybe some sanity challenged owner somewhere gives Peter"Bold Moves"Chiarelli another crack at destroying a franchise.
Paul is a keeper.

- Whatisavailable

Don't get me wrong... I really like Nick Paul, but unfortunately he's: 1) about to be a UFA after this year, 2) no longer a "best kept secret" type player across the NHL (scoring the golden goal for Canada at the WC will do that), and 3) plays LW, which is redundant for a team already boasting Tkachuk, Stutzle, and Formenton at the same position. You could argue that it's yet another reason to start moving Stutzle over to C, but at this point it seems pretty clear they have no actual plans to do that.

If the season starts going sour and they're way out of playoff contention heading into the trade deadline, it would be difficult to justify keeping any of Paul, Tierney, Holden, J. Brown, or Forsberg... especially if you're deliberately trying to create meaningful roster spots next year for the likes of Formenton, Pinto, Bernard-Docker, Sanderson, and Gustavsson (i.e. "the rebuild is over"). Paul would be the one exception I'd make, but given the undervalued contracts he's been playing under, I certainly wouldn't hold it against him to want to get maximum return on the UFA market.
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Sep 14 @ 12:46 PM ET
Im with Spatso on the Garrioch plant. He doesn't do much real journalism anymore.
But Spatso why do you want to kick this can of worms down the road for three years? You want him to show you? He's gone when he's UFA if we haven't won a cup.

- Octavarium


You cannot give long term deals to everyone. Term is even a bigger team budget killer than the actual salary. If Chabot gets $8 and Brady gets 8 and all your elite players start wanting 8n8...by your 5th deal you are a victim of your own poor management. 5 guys making 50% of the cap...there but for the grace of God is the blue team ($46.5m on their top 5 contracts).
Sens Writer
Location: Vancouver, BC
Joined: 08.19.2013

Sep 14 @ 1:24 PM ET
You cannot give long term deals to everyone. Term is even a bigger team budget killer than the actual salary. If Chabot gets $8 and Brady gets 8 and all your elite players start wanting 8n8...by your 5th deal you are a victim of your own poor management. 5 guys making 50% of the cap...there but for the grace of God is the blue team.
- spatso

Agreed, you need to build around a core foundation of maybe 4-5 players, who you give serious $$$/term to, with Chabot, Tkachuk, and Stutzle being the most obvious candidates for this level of commitment. To be successful, that core needs to have positional balance (cough cough... TML), so either Sanderson or a #1C could be the other players among that group. Then you have 2nd-tier supporting players like Batherson, who you try to keep in the ~$4M-$6M range... which is where you'll hopefully see the likes of Norris, Bernard-Docker, and Pinto. From there, pretty much anyone else should be getting bridge deals, to keep the cap flexible... including the likes of Brannstrom, Greig, and Formenton.

If nothing else, Chabot ($8M x 8yrs) and Batherson ($5M x 6yrs) are pretty good baseline contracts to be using as internal benchmarks for the top-2 tiers of players. This shouldn't be overlooked as a major success for Dorion, vs. the total $hitshow that Dubas walked right into down the 401.
You'reWrongBecause...
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 01.18.2019

Sep 14 @ 2:10 PM ET
You cannot give long term deals to everyone. Term is even a bigger team budget killer than the actual salary. If Chabot gets $8 and Brady gets 8 and all your elite players start wanting 8n8...by your 5th deal you are a victim of your own poor management. 5 guys making 50% of the cap...there but for the grace of God is the blue team ($46.5m on their top 5 contracts).
- spatso


You're really talking about 5 guys making 50% of the cap? We're 31st out of 31 teams in spending. We're not even cap compliant and the GM is patting himself on the back for a job well done.

The Sens have 3 contracts on the books in 2024/25, and only 1 of those is over $5M. Three contracts. I have zero time for some phantom scenario where all of a sudden paying a $1M signing bonus to a heart and soul type of player is going to set fire the Sens financial future. The Sens signing two contracts for $8M is not even close to the same as the Laffs handing out three contracts for over $10M. I know it's usually best to just poop on the Laffs, but despite their spending $30M on 3 forwards they won the division and made the playoffs. Nobody but Eugene himself should have any concerns about paying $16M to two core players.

Yeah, sure, other extensions have to be signed too, but none of those will matter as much as this one. Good luck keeping those future "core prospects" if you don't sign Brady now.

Is Brady's market value $8M x 8 years? For a team that is 31st in spending and still has a way to go to repair their relationship with many fans - this is the wrong question to be asking.

What is he worth to the Sens? What do the Sens have to pay to retain him? There are very sound arguments that Brady is worth more to the franchise than Chabot, and that the Sens should expect to pay more than "market value" for talent.

Too many fans still cheering for all that glorious cap space. Never mind that we've had multiple offseasons to "weaponize our cap space" by taking on salary for hockey assets - and have never done so. Never mind that Pierre admitted to needing another Top 6 F and Top 4 D, then added neither before saying the team is ready to compete. Never mind our big offseason trade, heading into a season where we're supposed to be fighting for a playoff spot, was a salary dump.

I believe that Pierre needed the chance to see the rebuild through. As all he's done until now is tear an old team down. But I don't like how Eugene handled his extension. If actually contending and winning games are the top priorities to the owner - then handing out multi-year extensions to both GM and Coach, before the season, is a mistake. Why not wait until Christmas? Then you can see where the team is at and say "we are clearly on the right track - these guys deserve the reward". To me, giving those extensions before camp even started is a pretty clear message that "our goal was to ice the cheapest roster possible."



HoweHatrick
Joined: 01.02.2014

Sep 14 @ 2:24 PM ET
BT is a little different scenario than would be common in the NHL. There is some history here. Ownership is looking for a "win" in terms of their fan base in general, attracting season ticket holders and more players. Locking up BT is something the fan base is really looking for.

That said, watching the cap is pretty much one of if not the most important factors in the NHL today. If you are not ultra concerned about your cap situation you are in trouble.
ktownfan
Joined: 12.07.2014

Sep 14 @ 2:56 PM ET
Trade Brady, his agent,his father for Lafreniere and a pick. Then take the 8 mill and take a run at Krill Kaprizoff from Minnesota.
You go from being difficult to play against to being impossible to line match with and uncle Eugene saves some $$.
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Sep 14 @ 5:55 PM ET
I did the talkathon lottery 2022 and the Sens moved up 7 places (from projected 8th) to gain the 1st pick overall. Perhaps that elite #1 centre is closer than we think.
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Sep 14 @ 6:10 PM ET
BT is a little different scenario than would be common in the NHL. There is some history here. Ownership is looking for a "win" in terms of their fan base in general, attracting season ticket holders and more players. Locking up BT is something the fan base is really looking for.

That said, watching the cap is pretty much one of if not the most important factors in the NHL today. If you are not ultra concerned about your cap situation you are in trouble.

- HoweHatrick


I think you are right.

It is entirely doable to sign BT short term (3 years) and be ready to pull the trigger and trade him while continuing to grow the team. BT is a very good player, he will be one of the best, if not the best, power forward over the last few years. He is not Ovechkin but he is a force.

As suggested by other folks he is the kind of asset that is highly negotiable. In the modern NHL with the pressures of a hard cap exists for all teams. Teams will be ready to flip skill for power. Would for example, the Rangers flip Lafreniere for BT straight up. Would the Sens flip BT with the Leafs for Marner straight up.

A short term deal is my preferred option for BT in his contract negations with the Sens. And, I don't think anybody should be afraid of trading him if push ever comes to shove.
Sens Writer
Location: Vancouver, BC
Joined: 08.19.2013

Sep 14 @ 7:18 PM ET
Trade Brady, his agent,his father for Lafreniere and a pick. Then take the 8 mill and take a run at Krill Kaprizoff from Minnesota.
You go from being difficult to play against to being impossible to line match with and uncle Eugene saves some $$.

- ktownfan

Better yet, take a $10M run at Pettersson.
Rsh
Season Ticket Holder
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 02.23.2021

Sep 14 @ 7:47 PM ET
Minnesota would love that Brady for krill straight up!
Rsh
Season Ticket Holder
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 02.23.2021

Sep 14 @ 7:49 PM ET
Brown trade him to the sabres. They are a worst team. For draft picks?
Rsh
Season Ticket Holder
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 02.23.2021

Sep 14 @ 7:54 PM ET
Kevin I like your blogs! You are a people person. You talk to your bloggers. Unlike the sabres bloggers. You post with them and they attack anyone who is not in their click. Thanks for your information and doing your job.
spazzbot
Location: Maple Zombie
Joined: 02.14.2013

Sep 14 @ 7:55 PM ET
You're really talking about 5 guys making 50% of the cap? We're 31st out of 31 teams in spending. We're not even cap compliant and the GM is patting himself on the back for a job well done.

The Sens have 3 contracts on the books in 2024/25, and only 1 of those is over $5M. Three contracts. I have zero time for some phantom scenario where all of a sudden paying a $1M signing bonus to a heart and soul type of player is going to set fire the Sens financial future. The Sens signing two contracts for $8M is not even close to the same as the Laffs handing out three contracts for over $10M. I know it's usually best to just poop on the Laffs, but despite their spending $30M on 3 forwards they won the division and made the playoffs. Nobody but Eugene himself should have any concerns about paying $16M to two core players.

Yeah, sure, other extensions have to be signed too, but none of those will matter as much as this one. Good luck keeping those future "core prospects" if you don't sign Brady now.

Is Brady's market value $8M x 8 years? For a team that is 31st in spending and still has a way to go to repair their relationship with many fans - this is the wrong question to be asking.

What is he worth to the Sens? What do the Sens have to pay to retain him? There are very sound arguments that Brady is worth more to the franchise than Chabot, and that the Sens should expect to pay more than "market value" for talent.

Too many fans still cheering for all that glorious cap space. Never mind that we've had multiple offseasons to "weaponize our cap space" by taking on salary for hockey assets - and have never done so. Never mind that Pierre admitted to needing another Top 6 F and Top 4 D, then added neither before saying the team is ready to compete. Never mind our big offseason trade, heading into a season where we're supposed to be fighting for a playoff spot, was a salary dump.

I believe that Pierre needed the chance to see the rebuild through. As all he's done until now is tear an old team down. But I don't like how Eugene handled his extension. If actually contending and winning games are the top priorities to the owner - then handing out multi-year extensions to both GM and Coach, before the season, is a mistake. Why not wait until Christmas? Then you can see where the team is at and say "we are clearly on the right track - these guys deserve the reward". To me, giving those extensions before camp even started is a pretty clear message that "our goal was to ice the cheapest roster possible."

- You'reWrongBecause...


Makes mostly sense to me. Gm and coaches can easily be replaced though even with contracts. But if the " rebuild is done" then start making some moves to prove it. Because its hardly over if we have to wait another 3 years for all this to come together. We will see, but patience is not a unlimited commodity for sports fans.
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Sep 14 @ 8:29 PM ET
More nonsense from Garrioch. It's"believed" the Sens have offered blah blah blah....
- Whatisavailable


But he is allowed to report stuff like that, if anyone else does, they attack including Bruce himself!
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Sep 14 @ 8:30 PM ET
I did the talkathon lottery 2022 and the Sens moved up 7 places (from projected 8th) to gain the 1st pick overall. Perhaps that elite #1 centre is closer than we think.
- spatso


Damn! Shane Wright please! Yotes are tanking for him.
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Sep 14 @ 8:31 PM ET
Kevin I like your blogs! You are a people person. You talk to your bloggers. Unlike the sabres bloggers. You post with them and they attack anyone who is not in their click. Thanks for your information and doing your job.
- Rsh


Thanks for the kind words. I try to respond to all comments the best I can. I try to engage with everyone and always return readers IM's on twitter or in my HB inbox. I love what I do.

If you are having an unpleasant exp. with Sabres fans, if it's harassing in any way, just email the mods here. Do you have their email?
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Sep 14 @ 8:32 PM ET
Unfortunately I'm not as optimistic as you. What you're saying is all based on potential and right now I don't see it. What's on the team right now is about 95% support or mediocre NHL players. Our best players are just better than average. The rest of the players mentioned are all prospects with unknown futures. The coaching competence and philosophy is not going to get them to the next level. The Sens drafting trend in the past 2 years is not geared towards high end skills. If everything remains the same, ownership down to coaching and development, I see them as a bubble team for a long time. Selling hope doesn't do it for me.
- granpa


This team is being built to play a style like Brady likes, look no further than Boucher their 1st round pick this year.
granpa
Joined: 07.03.2015

Sep 14 @ 8:33 PM ET
You're really talking about 5 guys making 50% of the cap? We're 31st out of 31 teams in spending. We're not even cap compliant and the GM is patting himself on the back for a job well done.

The Sens have 3 contracts on the books in 2024/25, and only 1 of those is over $5M. Three contracts. I have zero time for some phantom scenario where all of a sudden paying a $1M signing bonus to a heart and soul type of player is going to set fire the Sens financial future. The Sens signing two contracts for $8M is not even close to the same as the Laffs handing out three contracts for over $10M. I know it's usually best to just poop on the Laffs, but despite their spending $30M on 3 forwards they won the division and made the playoffs. Nobody but Eugene himself should have any concerns about paying $16M to two core players.

Yeah, sure, other extensions have to be signed too, but none of those will matter as much as this one. Good luck keeping those future "core prospects" if you don't sign Brady now.

Is Brady's market value $8M x 8 years? For a team that is 31st in spending and still has a way to go to repair their relationship with many fans - this is the wrong question to be asking.

What is he worth to the Sens? What do the Sens have to pay to retain him? There are very sound arguments that Brady is worth more to the franchise than Chabot, and that the Sens should expect to pay more than "market value" for talent.

Too many fans still cheering for all that glorious cap space. Never mind that we've had multiple offseasons to "weaponize our cap space" by taking on salary for hockey assets - and have never done so. Never mind that Pierre admitted to needing another Top 6 F and Top 4 D, then added neither before saying the team is ready to compete. Never mind our big offseason trade, heading into a season where we're supposed to be fighting for a playoff spot, was a salary dump.

I believe that Pierre needed the chance to see the rebuild through. As all he's done until now is tear an old team down. But I don't like how Eugene handled his extension. If actually contending and winning games are the top priorities to the owner - then handing out multi-year extensions to both GM and Coach, before the season, is a mistake. Why not wait until Christmas? Then you can see where the team is at and say "we are clearly on the right track - these guys deserve the reward". To me, giving those extensions before camp even started is a pretty clear message that "our goal was to ice the cheapest roster possible."

- You'reWrongBecause...


Agree 100% especially the extensions. It's obvious that Melnyck plans is to ice a mediocre bubble team for 3-4 years then blow it up and start a new rebuild with a new GM and coach. That's why he extended Dorion and Smith for another 3-4 years.
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