Ben Shelley: Kings continue to roll with 3-1 win over Kraken

Time to add Chychrun to your line-up!

Kings should absolutely be buyers if this continues.

Kempe really has come into form. Heres the question would Vilardi or Kupi, Maata plus a pick get a trade for Chychrun done? It sounds like the price will only go up as time passes. The idea of DD, Chychrun, Anderson, Clarke, Edler with Roy, or Walker being as swap outs seems decent.

Kempe really has come into form. Heres the question would Vilardi or Kupi, Maata plus a pick get a trade for Chychrun done? It sounds like the price will only go up as time passes. The idea of DD, Chychrun, Anderson, Clarke, Edler with Roy, or Walker being as swap outs seems decent.
- kingsfan1981

Kempe in COVID protocol. Frk called up.

I just don't see AZ moving Chychrun without one of Byfield or Clarke included and NO WAY Byfield would be traded.

Maybe AZ would take Kempe. His trade value will never be higher.

Maybe AZ would take Kempe. His trade value will never be higher.
- Osprey

Not sure he fits their profile: multi-year tank team that won't be competitive (at best) for 4 years. He'll be 29 by then.

Blake is giving Kempe at least 5.5mm AAV/5. Approximately the money allocated to Dustin Brown.

Not sure he fits their profile: multi-year tank team that won't be competitive (at best) for 4 years. He'll be 29 by then.

Blake is giving Kempe at least 5.5mm AAV/5. Approximately the money allocated to Dustin Brown.
- Only_A_Ladd

...and I'm sure we'll love that contract about as much as we loved Brown's.

...and I'm sure we'll love that contract about as much as we loved Brown's.
- tkecanuck341

He's probably worth Iafallo money. BUT at least a 5 year term would end when he's probably still serviceable as a middle 6 forward at age 31. Brown's deal was max term when he was already in his late 20's.

He's probably worth Iafallo money. BUT at least a 5 year term would end when he's probably still serviceable as a middle 6 forward at age 31. Brown's deal was max term when he was already in his late 20's.
- Only_A_Ladd

I'd be more confident with giving him that kind of term/money if he had more than 40 games worth of consistent play. His career so far has been the absolute definition of inconsistency. He started the 2017-18 season on the same torrid pace (the stats after 30 games look almost identical), then his disappeared for the second half of the season. Brown had put up 6 straight 20g/50p seasons (2012-13 pro-rated) and captained the Kings to Stanley Cup before he got his payday.

If I were Blake, assuming Kempe finishes this season strong, I'd give Kempe a one-year "show-me" deal in the $4M range. If he can reproduce his success from this season next season, then give him the big payday he wants. If his play falls off a cliff again, then we saved ourselves from the next albatross contract that will hinder the Kings moving forward.

Blake is giving Kempe at least 5.5mm AAV/5. Approximately the money allocated to Dustin Brown.
- Only_A_Ladd

That's what I'm afraid of.

If I were Blake, assuming Kempe finishes this season strong, I'd give Kempe a one-year "show-me" deal in the $4M range. If he can reproduce his success from this season next season, then give him the big payday he wants. If his play falls off a cliff again, then we saved ourselves from the next albatross contract that will hinder the Kings moving forward.
- tkecanuck341

Unfortunately, Blake is not Lombardi. He'll give Kempe a rich, long-term contract to reward him for this season and then Kempe will regress next season, yet continue to get high ice time and PP opportunity over the younger players.

I'd be more confident with giving him that kind of term/money if he had more than 40 games worth of consistent play. His career so far has been the absolute definition of inconsistency. He started the 2017-18 season on the same torrid pace (the stats after 30 games look almost identical), then his disappeared for the second half of the season. Brown had put up 6 straight 20g/50p seasons (2012-13 pro-rated) and captained the Kings to Stanley Cup before he got his payday.

If I were Blake, assuming Kempe finishes this season strong, I'd give Kempe a one-year "show-me" deal in the $4M range. If he can reproduce his success from this season next season, then give him the big payday he wants. If his play falls off a cliff again, then we saved ourselves from the next albatross contract that will hinder the Kings moving forward.
- tkecanuck341

And a 'show me' deal might happen, without the leverage of another RFA year under the Kings' belt. If Blake isn't inclined to give Kempe a multi-year deal, then perhaps this is a situation where the Kings give Kempe 4mm-5.5mm+ for a year to avoid arbitration. That is, of course, different from a mutual agreement made without the threat of a 3rd party deciding what is essentially a dispute over a player's value. If that occurs, Kempe probably hits the market during the summer of '23.

One's perspective on Kempe depends on whether his performance is merely just another good stretch or proof of his evolution into a top 6 forward. While nothing too solid, this is from a Dillman article on The Athletic (paywall) that contains some comparables:

A valuable go-to resource for contract projections are twin brothers Josh and Luke Younggren, the creators and brain trust of Evolving-Hockey.
When travel becomes a little less risky, I hope to meet them someday, and not just because they are based in Twin Cities and that we could talk for hours about all things Minnesota.

This is what Josh said via Twitter DM when I reached out to them on Kempe: “Last offseason, we had his projection at 3 years at $4 million (per year), give or take. Assuming the salary cap stays the same, given his age and RFA status, this season’s production so far and increased usage, I think a five- or six-year at $5 million to $6 million (AAV) deal seems like a ballpark guess. I looked into some simple comps using the data how it is in our model, and (Nazem) Kadri in 2016, (Derick) Brassard 2014 and maybe even (Jake) Guentzel deal in 2018 seem like possible comps. There’s a couple of other players here, like (Vladislav) Namestnikov (2018), (Kevin) Hayes (2018) and (Alexander) Steen (2010) that seem to indicate a lower-term deal might be in the making as well. But it’s hard to know what the model will predict just by looking at a few data points like this. There are a lot of moving pieces when it comes to what term is most likely.”

https://theathletic.com/3...mpressive-homestand-ends/

And a 'show me' deal might happen, without the leverage of another RFA year under the Kings' belt. If Blake isn't inclined to give Kempe a multi-year deal, then perhaps this is a situation where the Kings give Kempe 4mm-5.5mm+ for a year to avoid arbitration. That is, of course, different from a mutual agreement made without the threat of a 3rd party deciding what is essentially a dispute over a player's value. If that occurs, Kempe probably hits the market during the summer of '23.

One's perspective on Kempe depends on whether his performance is merely just another good stretch or proof of his evolution into a top 6 forward. While nothing too solid, this is from a Dillman article on The Athletic (paywall) that contains some comparables:



https://theathletic.com/3...mpressive-homestand-ends/
- Only_A_Ladd

Honestly, I'd take arbitration over a long term $5M+ deal. Any arbitration reward is guaranteed to be a 1 year deal, so it in essence is a "show me" deal. The dollar amount might get inflated a bit, but even if it is in the $6M+ range at least it's only for one year. If he can't reproduce his success from this season, the Kings can trade him as a rental at next year's deadline, or at least avoid making a mistake by signing him long-term.

Unfortunately, Blake is not Lombardi. He'll give Kempe a rich, long-term contract to reward him for this season and then Kempe will regress next season, yet continue to get high ice time and PP opportunity over the younger players.
- Osprey

There's no evidence of that. Blake has given out exactly one long-term deal (Danault) since taking over, and I think that was a good one.

Petersen's contract is a good example of a measured risk by Blake. It gave Petersen an AAV a bit higher than what he deserves, but the term is good and the money is structured in a way that makes the deal buyout friendly if Petersen doesn't work out. If they can't swing a one-year deal, I guess something comparable would be the next best thing to hope for.

There's no evidence of that. Blake has given out exactly one long-term deal (Danault) since taking over, and I think that was a good one.

Petersen's contract is a good example of a measured risk by Blake. It gave Petersen an AAV a bit higher than what he deserves, but the term is good and the money is structured in a way that makes the deal buyout friendly if Petersen doesn't work out. If they can't swing a one-year deal, I guess something comparable would be the next best thing to hope for.
- tkecanuck341

4 years and longer is long term to me and Blake has given out a bunch of those. You forgot Doughty and mentioned Petersen. Iafallo is another. Walker is another.

4 years and longer is long term to me and Blake has given out a bunch of those. You forgot Blake and mentioned Petersen. Iafallo is another. Walker is another.
- Osprey

I guess it depends on the definition of short-, mid-, and long-term.

1-2 years = Short term
3-4 years = Mid term
5-8 years = Long term

The only 5+ year deals Blake has given out are Danault and Doughty, both of which I'm incredibly happy with at this point. Time will tell on Danault's deal.

Even if you do include 4 year deals, there's only 3 more of those. Pearson, Walker, and Iafallo. He's handed out 29 one-way deals in that time. Not a bad ratio of short-, mid-, and long-term contracts.