With only about a week until NHL free agency opens, the Carolina Hurricanes are set to lose some major pieces.
While articles have been posted looking at the possibilities of losing key forwards in Martin Necas and Jake Guentzel, perhaps the biggest loss on the blue line would be Brady Skjei. After being acquired by the Hurricanes in 2020, Skjei became an extremely important piece of the team’s back end. Partnered with fellow pending UFA Brett Pesce, the duo formed a very reliable second pairing, capable of facing tough matchups. But after a few really strong seasons as part of the team's top-four group, Skjei has likely priced himself out of Carolina.
Looking ahead to what a possible left side of the defense group could look like without Skjei, obviously, Jaccob Slavin is the key piece that remains. Without Skjei though, the issue is there’s likely to be even more reliance placed on Slavin. The duo were able to split a lot of the tougher matchups last season, and without Skjei, more of the workload will inevitably fall to Slavin.
With Dmitry Orlov under contract for next season, the odds look quite strong that he’ll be shifted up from the bottom pairing, into a top-four role. Really, there’s a decent chance that Carolina just counts on Orlov-Chatfield to be their second pairing next season. At the same time, while Orlov got better as the year went on, he still only averaged a little over 17 minutes per game this season, and there should be a bit of concern about how he’d handle a larger workload against tougher competition.
But despite the potential challenges that could arise from losing Skjei, the defenseman is arguably the top left-handed UFA defenseman available this offseason, and the Hurricanes just won't be able to pay what it takes to retain him. In terms of what a new deal for Skjei could cost, I’ve done a contract projection for Skjei at HockeyComparables.com, which can be viewed below.
With Skjei now 30 years old, any long-term contract is going to carry risk for the Hurricanes. Especially coming off a big year where he’s likely worked his way into a bigger contract, there’s certainly reason for the Hurricanes to let Skjei walk away, and keep flexibility with their cap space.
Plus, the team’s eventual plan will almost certainly be to transition Alexander Nikishin into a big role on the left side. A third-round pick in 2020, Nikishin has been dominant in the KHL, and the hype around him only continues to grow. There's a good chance Nikishin doesn't make the jump to the NHL this season, but the Hurricanes can look for a stop-gap option until then. For a short-term solution, two of the possible free agency options would include Brenden Dillon or Alec Martinez.
So while Skjei has been a near perfect in Carolina, with Jaccob Slavin expected to have an eight-year extension in place soon, and Nikishin hopefully not far away, the Hurricanes remain better off to allow Skjei to head elsewhere. It may not be a seamless transition next season without Skjei on the blue line, but locking him up to the long-term deal that he’s earned would very likely end up being an issue in the long run.
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