|
Quick Hits: Draft Countdown Series, Defense Drafting, TIFH |
|
|
|
|
|
Quick Hits: June 22, 2024
1) The NHL Draft countdown series on PhiladelphiaFlyers.com continues later today with a look at five centers and center/wing swingmen -- plus several honorable mentions -- who could be on the Flyers' radar for the 12th overall pick of the 2024 Draft. Still to come: Wingers, defenseman and candidates for the 31st/32nd overall pick.
2) I wrote an article for longtime friend Grant McCagg's Recrutes 2024 Draft Guide. The article looks at how, over the course of Flyers History, the team has ended up faring better in the long term (for whatever reason) with latter first-round picks than with early ones. Examples from the last 25 Drafts include Simon Gagne (22nd overall in 1998), Justin Williams (28th overall in 2000), Claude Giroux (22nd overall in 2006), Scott Laughton (20th overall in a rather shallow 2012 Draft pool), Travis Konecny (after trading up to 24th during the 2016 Draft) and, to varying degrees Morgan Frost at 27th in the 2017 Draft (especially in comparison to the ill-fated selection of Nolan Patrick with the second overall pick).
3) Grant himself wrote a very interesting article that looks at all the defensemen selected in the top half or so of the first round dating back to 2000. Bottom line from the research: Teams need to be very cautious if they select a defenseman with an early first round pick, unless it's the very rare almost-can't-miss type like Drew Doughty or Victor Hedman in their Draft years.
McCagg theorizes that defenseman development is only slightly less unpredictable than goaltenders and there is a fairly high risk that even if the defenseman you choose becomes a reasonably solid long-time NHLer, there's a f forward you bypassed who go one to become a bigger impact player relative to his position. That doesn't mean to avoid taking a defenseman if your team picks early in the first round, of course. But it does mean to know exactly what you aim to realistically achieve.
Buyers' remorse is a very real thing, even with defense draftees who go on to have commendable careers. For example, McCagg cites the selection of Braydon Coburn (by the Atlanta Thrashers, now Winnipeg Jets) with the eighth overall pick of the legendarily deep 2003 Draft.
Even 21 years later, with the benefit of hindsight, it's very easy to understand the rationale behind the pick. One would be hard-pressed to find a comparable combination of size, speed (not just "fast for a 6-foot-5 player but fast by any standard), off-the-chart fitness levels and innate hockey skill. And even the harshest critic would say that any draftee who goes on to play nearly 1,000 games in the NHL, become a major minutes eater through his prime and into all but the late stages of his career was a "bad" pick.
Coby, however, never became a true star in the NHL. He never achieved quite that "star" level of all-around consistency, although he sometimes played at a very high level. His hockey sense wasn't deficient but it wasn't close to elite, either. He was sometimes prone to the "one big mistake" that would overshadow his other 25 or so solid shifts. Offensively, he never topped the 36 points he had in his third pro season (first full NHL season).
The vast majority of defensemen who get draft -- including the ones who play in the NHL -- would very gladly swap careers with Coburn. That's especially true, because he finally got his name on the Stanley Cup, albeit in a late-career reduced on-ice role at age 35.
Now, I will admit some bias here because I always personally enjoyed interacting with Brayden during the Flyers portion of his career and I could never help by marvel at his sheer athleticism and ridiculously fast recoveries between shifts. He never seemed to get tired, no matter how many minutes John Stevens, Peter Laviolette or Craig Berube asked him to play. Honestly, the reason I think Coby sometimes drew so much ire from Flyers fans (who tend to be exceptionally tough on defensemen anyway) is that they expected a greater sum of the parts and focused solely on what he wasn't (a star) rather than what he was (a damn good NHL blueliner for a long time).
At any rate, not even I would argue that Coburn had a better career at his position than some of the other talent that came out of that 2003 Draft across various rounds. Ditto Dion Phaneuf, who was taken with the next pick and went on to play even more NHL games (1,048) than Coburn. If identical prospects were available in ANY Draft year, they'd still go near the top because they represented traits that are still coveted.
That 2003 Draft -- like 1979, 1990 and 1991 -- was a bit of an outlier because of the sheer depth of star talent and NHL longevity that it produced. Even so, the basic point here is that if you end up "retro drafting" better forwards than the likes of Coburn or Phaneuf were as defensemen, what about the much higher volume of defensemen picked near the top who end up getting overshadowed even by other defensemen from their Draft class, let alone forwards.
McCagg's article is a timely one because there is a significant chance that the top half of the 2024 NHL Draft -- possibly even the top 10 -- could end up being rather defenseman heavy. There's a significant chance that some of these defensemen will go on to NHL stardom or at least lengthy and commendable NHL careers. There's an even higher probability, based on historical data, that other defensemen (and various forwards) will wind up as bigger impact players down the line. Proceed but do so with your eyes wide open.
4) Today in Flyers History: On June 22, 1973, shortly after being reacquired by the Flyers in a trade with the Toronto Maple Leafs, goaltender 28-year-old goaltender Bernie Parent signs a three-year contract with the Flyers. He goes on win back-to-back Vezina Trophies, back-to-back Conn Smythe Trophies, back-to-back Stanley Cup championships and help backstop the Flyers to three consecutive trips to the Stanley Cup Final (he's injured for much the 1975-76 season). The contract is torn up and extended at a significant raise after year two. Backup goalie Wayne Stephenson is the Vezina runner-up to Ken Dryden in 1975-76.
5) June 22 Flyers Alumni birthdays: Ilya Bryzgalov (1980), Roger Pelletier (1945), Darroll Powe (1985).
6) June 22 in memoriam: The aforementioned Wayne Stephenson passed away on June 22, 2010, ay the age of 65 after a battle with cancer.
Philadelphia Flyers Blogger •NHL.com • 
Join the Discussion:
»