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We’re finally into the top 10! I wouldn’t call any of the prospects between 6-10 elite, but they are all quite good, and it’s the best 6-10 they’ve had in years. Here they are:
10. Vitaly Abramov, RW
I have Abramov just one spot higher than his former Blue Jackets “teammate” not because he is closer to NHL-ready or because he has a better chance to make it, but because he has a much higher ceiling. If Abramov was acquired just one year ago, I would have been a lot higher on him but he failed to assert himself at the AHL level. He had a whopping 93 points in 63 games in the QMJHL in his draft year and followed that up with 104 points in 66 games and 104 points in 56 games. Junior hockey was simply beneath him. So he clearly has the potential to be great, as that kind of offensive production is not easy.
I see some comparisons between him and Francis Perron, as both destroyed the QMJHL but struggled in the AHL, although Abramov has more time to figure things out at that level. He needs to step up and be a contributor in the top-six for Belleville or else he is going to get bypassed by other prospects. Considering his size (5’9”, 172 lbs) and type of player he is, Abramov is probably either going to be a future top-six player or a future KHL All-Star.
9. Filip Chlapik, C/LW
Chlapik might begin to get passed over by slightly younger prospects, although that doesn’t mean he is a lost cause. It looked like his 2018-19 season was going to be even better than his 2017-18 one, but nagging injuries slowed him down near the end and he ended up with essentially the same point totals. He only played 5 games in Ottawa last year after playing in 20 the previous season, and he’ll have to play even better in the AHL in order to get that number higher.
At the age of 22, it’s not as if he is not going to get better, but he’s reaching a crossroads as he enters his third professional season. I think he can be a perfectly fine third-line winger or centre, but the Senators lineup is crowded right now and he probably won’t get that opportunity right away. He’s capable of being better offensively (as he showed in 2016-16 with 91 points in 57 games for Charlottetown), but it’s up to him to actually prove that he deserves a permanent call-up to Ottawa. Another stagnant season would be disappointing, but I don’t expect that to happen.
8. Marcus Hogberg, G
Hogberg is quite an interesting prospect. Some people might have Daccord, Gustavsson, or even Søgaard ranked higher depending on what they think his true talent level is. I have no idea if he is ever going to be an NHL-caliber starting goalie, but I am glad that he will be given a chance over the next two seasons to show off what he can do. The bad news about Hogberg is that he is already 25 in November, so he probably is what he is at this point. However, he has succeeded at every level he has been to.
There have been speedbumps at every stop, but this is a goaltender who had a .932 SV% in 33 games in the SHL as a 22-year-old and a .917 SV% in 39 games in the AHL last season. I don’t see why he can’t translate that to the NHL, at least as a 1B-type option. In terms of overall success, Hogberg has the most in his career amongst the Senators goalie prospects, and that is why I have him so high. A year ago, people were low on him because of a lacklustre AHL season, but he came back and proved that he was better than that. I think he has a solid shot to make it in Ottawa.
7. Alex Formenton, LW
People’s opinions on Formenton are always quite fascinating to me. Some people are convinced that he is an elite prospect who the Senators should consider untouchable, and I just don’t see how. I like him as a prospect, as evidenced by my 7th overall ranking of him. His speed is incredible, and I think that’s very valuable in today’s NHL. He has the potential to wreak havoc on an opponent’s forecheck, and he can be useful in all zones of the ice. However, his offensive production leaves something to be desired.
I was hoping that his two seasons after being drafted would be dominant for him in London, but instead, he was simply “good.” He had 48 points in 48 games and 34 points in 31 games in 2017-18 and 2018-19, respectively, which is obviously good, but not dominant numbers which I was hoping for. It was obvious in his games in the NHL that he has blistering speed but is not very good at finishing and is a bit Curtis Lazar-esque in that sense. If he can figure out how to finish his chances and actually do something with his speed, then he will be quite valuable in the top-nine, but if not, he might not be very important.
With not many spots available in Ottawa, he should spend most of the season in Belleville, and if he begins to tear it up, then there’s the possibility for him to get called up.
6. Lassi Thomson, RD
Thomson was a bit of a surprise pick at 21st overall just over a month ago, but it looks like most fans are happy with the pick of a right-handed defenseman. His 17 goals in the WHL were very impressive, and there’s no doubt that he has a ton of skill. There were some mixed opinions on him from scouts, but he is certainly one of the Senators best prospects due to his ability to create offense.
He’s also an older 2019 draftee though as he missed the cutoff for the 2018 draft by just 10 days, meaning his previous season is
almost a draft+1 season instead. I wouldn’t put him in the same tier as other top defense prospects around the league such as Evan Bouchard, Quinn Hughes, and Juuso Valimaki, but he is a good bet nevertheless. He will be playing against men in the SM-Liiga for 2019-20, so we should get a good sense of how NHL-ready his body is. There’s obviously some recency bias about him as a prospect, as many people see him as better than Jacob Bernard-Docker, but I’m not ready to go there just yet:
I would have rather taken somebody else at 21st overall, but I’m still very glad to have him in the system, especially considering his position.
The Top 25 list now looks like this:
6. Lassi Thomson
7. Alex Formenton
8. Marcus Hogberg
9. Filip Chlapik
10. Vitaly Abramov
11. Jonathan Davidsson
12. Joey Daccord
13. Shane Pinto
14. Jonny Tychonick
15. Filip Gustavsson
16. Mads Søgaard
17. Max Veronneau
18. Angus Crookshank
19. Jonny Gruden
20. Parker Kelly
21. Olle Alsing
22. Morgan Klimchuk
23. Michael Carcone
24. Kevin Mandolese
25. Mark Kastelic
Stay tuned for part 5/5 where I look at the best of the Senators prospects!
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