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At the beginning of every season, there are players on the team that we know what to expect with them. There will always be some variance of course, but for the most part, they will perform within a certain range of outcomes. However, in 2019-20, the Senators have a ton of unknowns, as they will be integrating plenty of young players into their lineup. Obviously we know that Thomas Chabot and Brady Tkachuk will be their two biggest difference-makers, but who else?
Other such as Colin White, Bobby Ryan, Chris Tierney, and Jean-Gabriel Pageau are more or less known commodities too (less so with White), but I want to talk about others who can unexpectedly impact the team in a positive way this season. If these players exceed our expectations, perhaps Ottawa won’t finish right at the bottom of the standings:
Drake Batherson
I think there’s a decent chance that he ends the season as the Senators second-best forward behind Tkachuk. I was cautiously optimistic about him heading into last season, but after scoring over a point per game in the AHL, I’m all-in on Batherson. With the lack of depth on the right side, he should be in the top-six all season long, giving him a perfect opportunity to become a leading point scorer on this team.
His 9 points in 20 NHL games extrapolates to 37 points in a full season, but I think he can easily hit 50 points (at least) this coming season. By doing that, he essentially replaces Ryan Dzingel’s production, which is sorely needed. Ottawa should have a bona fide top-six winger on their hands with Batherson, and perhaps even a first liner.
Anders Nilsson
Nilsson is different than everyone else on this list because he is not a young player at the age of 29. And while he won’t be on this team very long, he can easily have a big impact over the next two seasons. Craig Anderson is under contract for just one more season, and the 38-year-old has only averaged 49 games per season over the past three years, so it’s fair to assume that he’ll only be playing slightly more than half of the games.
Because of Anderson’s age and probable injuries, Nilsson is going to get a decent share of Senators games, and I can see him starting around 30-35 games. In 24 games in Ottawa last year, he posted a solid .914 SV%, and if he can keep that up for 30-35 games, that gives the Senators a much more respectable goaltending duo. If Anderson is healthy and hovers around the .900 SV% mark again, they still won’t be a good defensive team, but Nilsson’s slightly above average play could bring them into a higher position in the standings.
There’s also the possibility that Anderson misses even more time than anticipated with a future injury, in which case Nilsson could be playing more than 50% of the games. I don’t have faith in him as a full-time starter, but he currently has more potential than Anderson, meaning he can make a difference in overall goal prevention.
Logan Brown
Brown’s in a tough position right now because he definitely deserves to be in the NHL after a solid AHL season, but it’s pretty crowded down the middle with Colin White, Chris Tierney, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, and Artem Anisimov. He is the Senators second-best forward prospect behind Batherson, and if he got a spot on the 2nd line, I don’t see why he wouldn’t be able to put up at least 45-50 points.
His production this season all depends on how DJ Smith views him, because if he is given a lot of rope, then he could easily make a huge difference for an offense-starved team. However, if he goes back-and-forth between Ottawa and Belleville and only ever plays in the bottom-six, then he won’t be able to do very much. After the loss of Matt Duchene, Ottawa desperately needs an offensive centre, and while Brown might not be quite as good as Duchene, he’s the closest thing they have to him.
If Brown is given the opportunity to showcase his skill set and perhaps even play with his Belleville linemate Batherson, he could make the top-six look much better than it currently does.
Christian Wolanin
While I feel like Wolanin more than proved himself as an NHLer last season, he did only play 30 games, and it seems as if he is not 100% a lock to play every game despite being the second-best defenseman on the team. If he does play those extra 52 games though, that will be a massive boost to the team. The difference between him and the other rookies is that we already know what Wolanin’s baseline is, which is very good. Plus there’s the possibility that he improves even further.
Just like with Brown, how much of a difference-maker he is will depend on Smith’s usage of him, because if he gets second-pairing minutes, him, Chabot, and DeMelo will make up 3/4 of the top-4, which is quite respectable for a rebuilding team. Giving Wolanin around 20 minutes a night could really help the team’s overall defense. On the other hand, I can easily see a scenario where he is stuck on the third pairing with Christian Jaros or Ron Hainsey and is sometimes a scratch in favour of Mark Borowiecki. In that case, his impact will be severely diminished.
I have no doubts about the player as a top-four defenseman because I really love what Wolanin brings. But Smith holds the cards in terms of how things will play out with his impact.
Jonathan Davidsson
I’ve talked about him as an under-the-radar player so much that people are probably not thinking of him as under-the-radar anymore. The 22-year-old Swede produced 31 points in 52 SHL games in 2017-18 (21 in 37 in 18-19), and I think he has a very good shot at being a mainstay in the Senators top-nine. He doesn’t have nearly the same potential as the other three prospects on this list, but he is one of the most NHL-ready prospects in the system, and he could become trusted very quickly.
He’s an interesting prospect because he ranks quite well in terms of projected value (second highest amongst Senators prospects):
(ignore the Davidsson on the bottom left, that’s a different Jonathan Davidsson who is a defenseman)
His projected chance of making it in the NHL is lower, but I’m fairly confident he will spend at least a majority of this coming season in Ottawa. I don’t think he is going to become a star player for the Senators, but in a lineup full of question marks and negative value players, Davidsson has the
potential to stand out as a solid asset in the top-nine, and those players have value.
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