Lawrence Pilut’s signing In Europe seemed to be the unofficial start of players looking for ice time before December or January. It’s been a topic I’ve touched on a few times, and now it seems to have created a few classes of potential defectors.
John Nyberg has headed over as well, as a player knowing they won’t have an NHL spot as well as the reality that the AHL season will be held hostage to whatever the NHL is deciding to do. We are getting into territory where the “return to play” is making decisions for some players who need to play, and get paid. Follow the twitter embed up above for some conversations regarding this movement.
So, who are the most likely candidates to go? For the time being, it is the “fringe” players. Guys who don’t have a guarantee that they will see NHL action. Keeping in mind that many European clubs will allow an NHL out clause, these players aren’t going to be able to sit for 10 months without a paycheck or a chance to prove they’ve developed. This will be players out of waiver options and players who are on AHL only deals. The QMJL made a smart move to protect their own interests by announcing an October start. Those junior drafted players who have a team and can’t be sent to the AHL yet know where and when they will be seeing action soon enough.
The AHL is an interesting beast in terms of revenue. Most markets aren’t being broadcast on cable, and so the advertising revenue and major dollars for each team are tied to ticket sales. There is a subscription service available with AHL.TV, and I’ve enjoyed many Griffins games through streaming. The numbers, however, just aren’t what they need to be to support a league playing in front of empty seats. The ECHL even more so, tied to the in person fan experience for their revenues.
The “Unlucky 7” teams outside of the playoffs are going to have a different challenge than any teams in the 24 team bracket. It remains to be seen how players will be paid on return to play, but it may well be in the traditional playoff format. The “camp” portion for teams is normally unpaid, save for “per diem”. The envelope of cash with your hotel room key that everyone gets when they show up. That amount could be renegotiated to be a bit higher than normal
Sean Avery did a candid piece for “The Players Tribune” in 2015. It was the first time many of us got to see the take home pay of an NHLer. He starts with his signing bonus of $125. After taxes and 3% agent fees (reduced fees on bonuses) he ended up with about $70K. At the time, he talked about per diem which was $97 per day and how that money can help you make ends meet. His first road trip to Chicago saw him spend $750 for a pair of pants as he was out and about with the veterans. “Credit card roulette” used to be a popular form of hazing for the young guys who would end up paying the tab on a $30,000 dinner. Painful to be sure.
Assuming that per diem is $100 per day ish, that would mean that a three week camp will give you $2,100 in tax free pay. As long as you’re being smart and eating the team meals, you can pocket most of that. Your hotel room and equipment are covered. Where this gets interesting is the fact that there are no “home” teams during the playoff format. That would indicate that every player will continue to receive a per diem as long as they’re not eliminated from play. If you play for 2 months you pocket $6000. The players who have signing bonuses usually get those in July, and so they are going to be in good shape. It’s the “black aces” that may not be salaried whose entire income is tied to the per diem.
So, is losing out on 3K per month enough to send players over to Europe? It’s possible. We’re not talking about players on multi year NHL deals. In the summer, these players are out of pocket for everything. Training, meals, lodging, etc. the current CBA isn’t structured to allow clubs to foot the bill for any of that. Now, add to that the missed paycheck from the end of the season. Some players are already operating at a deficit. There are “emergency” funds for players who are in trouble (Brad Marchand and Tom Wilson may get Christmas cards this year) but it’s not setup to be able to pay for players to sit and wait for a job.
And so, group 1 that we’re beginning to see are the non guaranteed players. It’s going to force some painful conversations. It will go something like, “does my client have a guaranteed spot next year”? The players who are looking to take a job by performing well at camp and in preseason may not be able to afford that risk. I have some thoughts on which Red Wings may be having this particular conversation soon.
And so, my favorite takeaway from “The Avery Rule is the following: Taxes take about half (if you take no evasive tax action), agent and management fees take 25 percent, and the NHL snatches another 20 percent to put in escrow, which the owners balance out at the end of the season. Sometimes, they use the players’ cash to help small-market teams. Sometimes we’d get a refund. But for The New Avery Rule purposes, consider it gone. So really, that $13.2 million becomes $660,000 — which is still a lot of money, but you have to make that last for the next 50 or 60 years because if you have a five-and-a-half year NHL career, you’ve retired at age 25 or 26.
That paints a grim picture that the take home for 13 million is around 660,000. That’s a good amount of money over 2 or 3 years, but not enough to carry you. Those numbers are based on a 5.5 year career making 2.4 million (the average contract length and pay at the time of the article). There is a very real scenario that escrow could be raised for the coming season. If it’s 30%, based on the numbers above, your take home is dangerously low. Almost nothing if you don’t get a very smart accountant to help you with taxes behind withheld. Signing bonuses are exempt from escrow and have much smaller agent fees. The take home on those is close to 50%, so that is going to be a great boon for players who have them.
With all of that in mind, here are some players from Detroit who will at least have to consider playing overseas for a few months.
Adam Erne - without an extension, Detroit simply needs to qualify him in order to hold onto his signing rights. He has a reasonable chance of making the team, but at what price? If escrow ends up being high enough, and the cap drops, his hand may be forced. Assuming he would make around $1 million per season, it may be by necessity. IF Erne did go to Europe, I would expect an NHL out clause so he can come back to Detroit if they call on him.
Brendan Perlini - unless there’s something we’re not aware of, last year didn’t merit a more solidified career in the NHL. I look at Perlini as a PTO candidate, and that’s a big risk financially. If Perlini left, I think he’d spend an entire season in Europe, hopping to have some success that could lead to another shot at the NHL.
Christopher Ehn - although Ehn did secure a spot 2 seasons ago, last year wasn’t a good season for him. He’s young and Europe may have been on his radar before the season ended. I’d expect him to stay over if he does leave.
Dmytro Timashov - picked up on waivers, this is another player who I don’t think has a guaranteed spot. With more money available, I think he would attempt to join the KHL. NHL out clauses are a bit more rare in that league, and he may forego asking for one.
Madison Bowey - this is one of the tougher players to look at. He’s shown brief flashes of having a scoring touch. Still, with nothing imminent he could try to go to Europe to increase his value. I would expect an “out” clause as he will want another kick at the NHL can.
Taro Hirose and Dominic Turgeon - both in the AHL and without new deals. It is hard to see them being guaranteed any type of position in the big club, and both need to be playing. If either or both go over they may just decide to stay for the entire season.
Evgeny Svechnikov - this would be the biggest surprise if he did leave. The former first rounded hasn’t been able to get on track due to injuries and is no longer waiver exempt. This is one of the most loyal players you’ll ever meet, and so if Detroit tells him he’ll be on the roster, I’d expect him to stay put. However, if Yzerman tells him he’ll be battling for a spot he may do well to head to the KHL. Any deal he signs would have to have an NHL out clause. He has a lot of personal belief that he can still make it. I’d love to see this player be a success story. 3 or 4 months of playing overseas could really help him find some confidence and have him fresh for the new season when it starts.
Elson , Puempel, Turner and Wood - all 4 have no contract for next year at this point. If the AHL is the only option, these 4 may all need to find work to hold them over until December or January.
So, what do you think? Is the financial reality of these players enough to see them have to make a tough choice? Will any of them stay with no paycheck until December or January based on the hope of making it? There is always the chance that some minor league clubs may not survive the Covid shut down. It’s still to be seen what damage has been done with the early end.
In the next column, we’ll look at the second type of player that could well make their way into the European leagues.
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