Draft Day is tomorrow!
I will recap Day 1 and Day 2 on Wednesday and Friday plus recap any transactions that may have taken place this week.
Today’s blog features a readers mailbag. Thank you to those who submitted questions! We’ll do another mailbag later in the fall once the roster starts to shake out for the new season.
Before we get to the Q&A, I want to share thoughts on the first few transactions by the Blackhawks this offseason and forecast pending ones. I also want to present my predictions for the 17th pick of the draft.
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MAATTA-MORRISON TRADE
Trading Olli Maatta was inevitable and was more a matter of what would be received in return. While I would have preferred a draft pick -- even one in the 4th round or later -- I am comfortable with this trade as a cost-cutting move.
With Maatta’s departure, that creates a roster spot for Lucas Carlsson as the LHD on the 3rd pair. Carlsson has been the Hogs best blueliner the past two seasons so he is ready to make the jump as he has nothing left to prove in the AHL.
One Morrison clearly wasn’t enough in the system so Stan Bowman went out and got Brad to go along with Cam. The Rockford roster is actually jam packed already with a litany of forward additions since the spring, i.e. Andrei Altybarmakyan, Evan Barratt, D.J. Busdeker, Matej Chalupa, Mitchell Fossier, Riley McKay, Chris Wilkie, and both Morrisons.
Cam has greater NHL upside even though he is likely a multi-year project. Brad is going to be hard pressed to be anything more than an AHL-ECHL tweener.
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SIKURA-PIRRI TRADE
Just like trading away Maatta, moving out Dylan Sikura was also fated as it was more and more evident that he would not get a chance to play in the NHL as a member of the Blackhawks. Trading him was a wise and classy move for both the organization and the player.
The return, though, was questionable with Brandon Pirri returning to the organization. Pirri is not a prospect anymore and seems to have hit his water level as a borderline NHLer who has oddly evolved from an assist machine early in his pro career to a goal scorer.
Could Pirri be an insurance policy at 3C if Dylan Strome is not re-signed?
One issue with that solution is that Pirri isn’t viewed as a defensively reliable forward. He may not be pitiful but he’s also not one to anchor a 3rd line that can bring the offense while locking it down in their end. The one thing that Pirri has a leg up on Strome is skating.
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PENDING TRANSACTIONS
With Maatta shipped out, my spidey sense thinks that we could see a similar trade involving Calvin de Haan for a late-round draft pick or a Morrison-like prospect.
Zack Smith could finally be bought out in due time. Maatta was the other buy-out candidate but I was in the camp that considered it better to gain something in return via trade instead.
It would be ideal if the Corey Crawford contract saga could come to closure by the end of the week right before the free agency period commences on Friday at 12:00 noon EST.
Then once Crawford’s destiny is known, that should start a chain reaction of movement on the RFA situations for Strome, Dominik Kubalik, Drake Caggiula, Slater Koekkoek, and Malcolm Subban.
As for free agency, I have more to say about this in my response to the last question in the mailbag portion of this blog. Skip below or just continue to read on until you get there.
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DRAFT DAY PREDICTIONS
Here are my predictions for the 17th overall pick presented in an unconventional format:
Who I would like at 17th but likely won’t be available: Anton Lundell or Dawson Mercer.
Who I think may be available and would like selected: Dylan Holloway, Mavrik Bourque, Braden Schneider, or Kaiden Guhle.
Who I think may be available and could be selected but I have reservations: Hendrix Lapierre (health), Jacob Perreault (defensive effort), or Connor Zary (skating).
Who I think may be a reach at 17th but wouldn’t be that upset if selected: Rodion Amirov or Brendan Brisson.
Who I fear may be selected: Sam Colangelo (disinterested without the puck), Noel Gunler (wildly inconsistent), or Jeremie Poirier (subpar commitment to defense).
What are your predictions?
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Finally, onto the mailbag portion of our show!
Question from Mike:
Doesn't really apply to the draft/free agency categories but wondering if you have any thoughts on Andrew Shaw? He doesn't get talked about much these days. You think he will play in the upcoming year? LTIR? Is he tradeable?
If he were to return to the guy that they traded for, is he still worth keeping? Seems like he and Caggiula are “the same type” of player, a little redundant. Others like Highmore seem more valuable at this point. A lot of $ tied up in his contract.
Response:
If Andrew Shaw is healthy by training camp as he says he will be, then pencil him in as 3rd line winger. While it’s not out of the question that he stays injury free for a decent stretch, there is the fear of him being one hit away from going on the shelf again with a career-ender.
One thing I try to separate as a fan is what I may want him to do -- think of his family first and retire early as the long-term effects of his injuries could impact his quality of life -- from what he has the right as his own person to do which is to decide that he wants to keep playing.
Why do I add that caveat? The answer is simple: I’m not a doctor and don’t want to pretend to be one.
I’m ready to give him that chance and trust he is making decisions based on all possible input he can get from family to medical professionals to the Blackhawks organization. Fans may fit in that equation but more so on the “keep playing” side of the ledger.
With that in mind, I think there’s a high chance that Caggiula is not re-signed. There may not be enough cap space for one thing but it may also be a risk to carry both him and Shaw.
Additionally, the forward lines start to get crowded especially if Strome and Kubalik are retained because Alex Nylander also needs to play somewhere and so does Pius Suter.
As for Matthew Highmore, he is definitely valuable as you said. However, he plays a different role and style than Shaw and Caggiula. Highmore is a cerebral agitator while Shaw and Caggiula are more kamikazes out on the ice.
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Question from rayk1006:
Do you know if the Blackhawks had Quinn Hughes rated higher than Adam Boqvist in 2018 as I had read that they had Boquist in their top 5?
Every 2018 pre draft scouting service (except Craig Button) I saw had Joe Veleno rated significantly ahead of junior teammate Nicolas Beaudin. Have you heard why the Hawks took Beaudin over Veleno who went a few picks later?
Response:
Interesting factoid: Not only did Joe Veleno and Nicolas Beaudin play a few seasons together for the Drummondville Voltiguers but Dawson Mercer was their teammate as well.
From what I recall -- but anyone is free to correct me -- I am fairly certain the Blackhawks rated Adam Boqvist higher than Quinn Hughes so the Canucks taking Quinn a pick before at 7th didn't matter to the Hawks.
That is correct, too, that Veleno was rated much higher than 30th where he went to the Wings. I believe at times prior to the 2018 draft, he was a top 10 pick but steadily dropped in the rankings. Personally, I didn’t think he would have fallen that far, at most somewhere in the mid-teens.
Personally, I was surprised the Hawks took Beaudin over Veleno or even Bode Wilde, Akil Thomas, or Serron Noel. On that note, I received the following intel from Wiz:
"Beaudin was just rated higher than Veleno and filled a need the Blackhawks had at that point in time more than Veleno did.
"In junior, Veleno was a solid 200 foot player in a league where the top draftees played half of the rink. He has skill but not necessarily skill that separates. I never thought he used his body to impose his will much. He is a good puck carrier, scores different ways but mostly outside of the dirty areas.
"There always was concern that he doesn't go hard or play with physicality along the wall and is a finesse forward."
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Question from chisoxhawk:
Do you believe athletes in general are greedy for cash over and above all other goals such as championships?
Response:
There’s always the rule and the exception to the rule. In this case, I think greed is the exception.
That isn’t to say, though, that players won’t strive to get the biggest contract that they can get. All of us who are not pro athletes would likely do the same in whatever fields we work in to ensure we get paid what we’re worth. So in that regard, I expect pro athletes to do the same and wouldn’t label that as greed.
For those who simply follow the dollars at the expense of the ultimate prize -- the Stanley Cup in the case of the NHL context -- then I believe greed is a fair term to use.
This isn’t mutually exclusive either as a player could seek to play for a contender while making sure they get paid handsomely to do so. Yet, I’d still have a difficult time categorizing this as greed.
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Question by Tyler Cameron:
Theo, you're doing an amazing job - keep up the great work!
My question is about cap space. What would you do to free up room to sign the likes of Corey Crawford, Dylan Strome, and Dominik Kubalik? (If you think resigning those guys are the priority).
Buying out Zach Smith and Olli Maatta have been the obvious answers, but as we know the Hawks' management isn't the biggest fan of buyouts.
Do you have any creative ways you would handle the Hawks salary cap; my take is they not only need to make room for the guys they need to resign but they need to somehow get better this offseason as well.
I'll hang up now and listen to your response.
Response:
Preface: I received Tyler’s question over a week ago so before the Maatta trade went down.
To create more wiggle room in order to re-sign Crawford, Strome, and Kubalik, I would trade at least one of Maatta, de Haan, and/or Nylander as well as buy out Smith.
Why not trade Brandon Saad or Connor Murphy? Saad in particular would create the biggest gain of cap space at $6M.
Answer: If the team wants to remain competitive, they need both Saad and Murphy. Saad is a quick 200-foot power forward who can play top 6 while Murphy is the best defensive defenseman who also brings a consistent physical element.
Shedding them to retain Strome and Kubalik seems counter-intuitive in that this weakens the team rather than strengthens it. This is where shipping out Nylander makes sense, IMO, because losing him wouldn’t set the team back.
Yes, Nylander has one more season left on his affordable ELC but even $863,333 can make a difference to retain the difference makers on the team.
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Question from jv526:
Any word of injuries from the playoffs? Nagging/year long injuries. Haven’t heard anything at all.
Response:
No reports I've seen. Doesn't seem to be any major injuries, perhaps just minor things here and there that aren't noteworthy or a concern.
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Question from HawkintheD:
Any guys you’d like to see them take in the 2nd or 3rd you think might be there?
Response:
At forward, keep an eye on Colby Ambrosio, Brett Berard, Thomas Bordeleau, Brendan Brisson, Luke Evangelista, Sean Farrell, Jake Neighbours, Theodor Niederbach, and Ryder Rolston.
Brisson, Evangelista, and Neighbours could surprise, though, and be taken in the 20s of the 1st round.
On the blueline, I like Ethan Edwards, Daemon Hunt, Tyler Kleven, and William Villeneuve. If you look back at the
blog previewing D-men to consider drafting, I have more to say about each of them.
Topi Niemela and Emil Andrae are also ones to watch but I would be hesitant to nab them as their strictly mail-carrying style is not an organizational need at the moment.
And in net, I would consider goalies Joel Blomqvist, Drew Commesso, and Nicolas Daws.
All of the above are based on each draft prospect having a solid mix of high compete level and skill. They are not without their flaws but give me prospects who compete up and down the ice -- or in goal in the case of the netminders.
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Question from Chunk:
Great job thus far with the blogs. The depth and reasoning are both great to see. Considering the current state of the team (rebuilding and having some high dollar contracts still on the books), do you see the Hawks even entertaining any FA's (outside of a goalie)? I don't see it unless all of the money dries up and there are a glut of 2nd-3rd line guys available that are still young and can be had for cheap.
Response:
I would have to agree. The hope is that Bowman doesn’t swim in the deep end looking for big fish and instead builds the team from within his own pond. Why?
For one thing -- and as you mentioned -- there isn’t enough cap space to take on any higher-priced free agents. Another thing is that new players block paths for prospects on the cusp to crack the Chicago lineup.
However, it also depends on whether or not some of the RFAs are re-signed. For instance, if Strome is not re-signed, that creates a hole at middle 6 center. Or if Kubalik isn’t retained, his 30 goals need to be replaced. Neither of those gaps are likely to be filled in-house.
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Thank you again for the questions! Let’s hope this week starts to amp up excitement for the future!
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See you on the boards!
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