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The Toronto Maple Leafs begin their pursuit of playoff success as they take on the Tampa Bay Lightning in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs starting Tuesday at Scotiabank Arena.
After taking a look at the club’s goaltending on Saturday going into the series and the defense on Monday, we will wrap up the preview of the Leafs by looking up front, an area that has also been upgraded since the Leafs and Lightning played 12 months ago.
Since the lineup that took the ice in Game 7 last May, the Leafs have changed nearly half of their forward complement, with names like Colin Blackwell, Jason Spezza, Ondrej Kase, Pierre Engvall, and Ilya Mikheyev replaced by Ryan O’Reilly, Noel Acciari, Zach Aston-Reese, Sam Lafferty, and Calle Jarnkrok.
The Leafs scoring went down 36 goals (315 to 279) this season, but their team defense was more efficient (253 to 222) in large part because the likes of Auston Matthews, William Nylander, John Tavares, and Mitch Marner were more conscientious in their own end. Toronto (especially early in the season when the blueline was without veterans Jake Muzzin, Morgan Rielly, and TJ Brodie) was able to limit chances because the defense received help from forwards dropping down deep.
The greatest upgrade was the addition of O’Reilly in a deal with St. Louis, giving the Leafs one of the best defensive forwards and faceoff men in the league. Jarnkrok was a solid addition, splitting time between a checking role and a top-six winger to score 20 goals for the first time. Acciari, Lafferty, and Aston-Reese provide experience and depth to the bottom six, while Wayne Simmonds and rookie Matthew Knies could get called upon if injuries occur.
In the end, the series may come down to whether the Leafs core group and their power play can produce when called upon. Two years ago, Toronto lost to the underdog Canadiens because Matthews and Marner were shut down. Against Tampa last season, the core four were successful up to a point, but late in the series, they could not break through against Andrei Vasilevskiy, and in the seven-game loss they went 4 for 28 (14.3%) with the man advantage.
The acquisition of O’Reilly gives Sheldon Keefe additional options to go against the likes of Brayden Point and Anthony Cirelli, the improved depth in the bottom six makes them less vulnerable if Tampa coach John Cooper gets Nikita Kucherov or Steven Stamkos out against them, and unlike 11 months ago, Toronto has a healthy Michael Bunting to annoy the Lightning forwards.
While my prediction for the series is Tampa in seven games, the Leafs are fully capable of beating the Lightning if they live up to expectations and get excellent performances from the players who have produced during the regular season. As we know, the playoffs are a different animal, so those players will have to find a different gear to get the Leafs past the first round for the first time since 2004.
Toronto Maple Leafs Blogger • 
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