Just 11 hours to go until we can stop talking about rumours and start talking about hockey again.
The NHL trade deadline really has become one of the most anticipated dates on the hockey calendar.
And while many say that it should become a National Holiday (at least in Canada), I propose that we create a holiday to celebrate those players who score 96% of playoffs goals – the guys who AREN’T moved on deadline day.
In the last three seasons on deadline day there have been a total of 75 trades, involving 129 players and 74 draft picks.
Guess how many of those 129 players scored more than four goals in the playoffs the year they were acquired?
TWO.
Marian Hossa (12 goals in 2008) and Mark Recchi (7 goals in 2006)
Seventy-four draft picks, (including 8 1st-rounders and 17 2nd-rounders) plus prospects like Shawn Matthias and Angelo Esposito were dealt to bring in rental players and yet those players acquired scored a total of 50 playoff goals over 3 years:
12 Goals - Hossa
7 Goals - Recchi
4 Goals - Samsonov
3 Goals - Richards, Bertuzzi, Friesen
2 Goals - Dupuis, O’Donnell, Mara, Dowd, Roberts
1 Goal – Stuart, Saprykin, Campbell, Salei, Fedorov, Smyth, Salvador, Dupuis
Over those three seasons, deadline day acquisitions have scored 3.8% of playoff goals.
Given that data, I don’t believe that teams should be so quick to move high draft picks for players who may or may not help their team take the next step. There just isn't enough time to properly integrate players into your roster and adding a new player has ramifications on a roster that has been together all year.
It’s one thing to be trading faceless draft picks, but what happens when a couple years down the road those picks turn into prospects like:
Simeon Varlamov
Milan Lucic
Shawn Matthias
Jhonas Enroth
Nick Petrecki
David Perron
Oscar Moller
Luca Sbisa
Viktor Tikhonov
All of those players were selected with draft picks that were moved on deadline day in the past three years. If you add in the days leading up to the deadline you can also throw in names like Max Pacioretty, Jonathan Blum, Mikael Backlund...
Is it really worth it for a month’s rental and the hope of a long playoff run?
Well if you’re already an elite team then sure it’s worth sacrificing a piece of the future for a better chance at the Cup.
Otherwise, it’s a terrible, terrible investment – because all you’re selling is false hope and maybe a few more tickets. Any gain is almost always extremely short term and you could be paying for it for years to come.
Ten years in a row the Cup has been won by a team that finished in the top four in the overall standings. And usually those teams don’t have glaring weaknesses that need to be filled by a desperation move on the final day of the trading season.
Deadline Day should really be renamed Depth Defenseman Day. Want to trade a pick or two for a guy like Brad Stuart, Sean O’Donnell, Ruslan Salei or Hal Gill? By all means I think it’s a great idea. Or if you need a character guy to play on the 4th line like Brad May, go for it..
But just remember that Cup winners are built in June, not March.
Why give away a piece that could be with your franchise for years in return for a guy who could be gone in just over a month? Sure not all draft picks turn out but as a GM you have to have faith in your scouts that they’ll have success with their first and second rounders more often than not.
Now’s the time for tweaking and patience, not blockbusters and keeping up with the neighbours.
Trade Deadline Day is fun for the fans and it’s fun for the media but don’t panic if your team doesn’t land the player you wanted for the playoff run.
Chances are, he wouldn’t have worked out anyways.
Danny –
[email protected]
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