Listen to the Hockeybuzzcast Taping at 12:45 today below
My job is always interesting and challenging, but the hardest part of covering 30 NHL teams and trying to get the inside rumors is honestly knowing where to look. I have hundreds of sources I can call on any given day and deciding who I call is vital.
I have notebooks on every team and I am always trying to piece together whatever tidbit I get, but I simply can't call sources from all 30 teams every day. In late September I locked myself up for several hours and worked on a blog called The Missing NHL Stats.
One of the stats I developed was "The Team Pressure" factor. It is basically as it sounds and was designed to help determine which team was the most under the gun to make something happen now and therefore which teams were the most likely to be making moves if things turn south.
The Team Pressure Factor was derived by the following pressures...
Choking Since Lockout:
This is a complicated formula that tries to take the last four years playoff performances versus a team's regular season performance. Very high for teams that don't make the playoffs over the 4 years
Last Season Disappointment:
This is a formula for last year's season versus playoff performance
Market Anxiety:
This is the only subjective factor. Here I just decide on my own the mood of the fanbase. It combines the general pressure this fanbase places on a team and the recent disappointments.
GM pressure:
COACH pressure:
Here I simply take the years the team GM and Coach have been employed by the team without making it to the Conference Finals. (and I add 1 up to 10) I use the Conference Finals because I see that as a general benchmark in Coach/GM security
Now that we are into December I think it is interesting to look at what teams I found to be under the most pressure that may be under performing and therefore the teams that may be close to pushing the panic button.
So based on this, I came up with the Team Panic Factor. This takes the Team Pressure Factor (or expectations) and weighs them with performance to date this season, taking the last 10 games and playoff positioning into account..
So here are the top ten teams most likely to have to pull the trigger on a deal now:
#10- Columbus Blue Jackets. Currently in tenth place there were bigger expectations after the team making the playoffs last year. The Filatov chip is an interesting one. Has Hitchcock lost the team? Some really interesting debates surrounding Columbus. They have given up the most goals in the NHL.
#9-Atlanta Thrashers. Despite a solid start and being in 6th the Thrashers have the Kovalchuk contract hanging over them and the fact that they haven't been to the post season in some time and when they did get there it was a quick out. To keep Ilya this team may need to be in the playoffs. And if they don't keep Ilya things get dicey.
#8-Edmonton Oilers. The Oilers are injured but being in 13th place in the Conference and only winning 3 of their last ten isn't going to fly. Also when your big UFA was a goalie and you are 3rd worst in GAA at this point...that's a problem.
#7-New York Rangers. The Rangers once again started off like gangbusters and cooled off. This team spent a ton of money this summer and made some pretty big changes. They have not seen playoff success in a very long time now. They need to turn it around.
#6-Philadelphia Flyers. The Flyers could be higher on this list perhaps but the fact that this team has had playoff success two years ago after being the bottom of the NHL prior is keeping them as high as 8. However, Philly's loss last night was the kind of loss that usually someone is held accountable for in Philly. This season has in many ways been a microcosm of the John Stevens era. Before I went to Florida the week of Thanksgiving they had won 5 in a row, including a win against the Devils. Now they are 3-7 in their last ten. Under Stevens the Flyers have always either been hot or cold.
#5-Minnesota Wild. They changed GMs and Coaches, but find themselves in 14th in the West. They went to a more open style and cannot score goals. They were lower on this list, but they have managed to turn it around as of late, winning their last 3. But the pressure to make the playoffs is very big on this group.
#4-St. Louis Blues. They finally made the playoffs last year, but this season they have been all over the map. They need to get in on some of the possible bigger names that could be moved at the deadline. I can't see the Blues upper management allowing this team to wait at the deadline if they are not at least in the 8 hole. Currently they sit 12.
#3-Montreal Canadiens. What more can be said. This team is in 12th place but remember all the OT and shootout games they won early. The margin for error in Montreal is so small right now. They aren't far off from being a team that is in the running for a top 4 pick. They made sweeping changes and did not improve. All of this does not fly in Montreal for much longer.
#2-Florida Panthers. The Panthers haven't been to the playoffs in a long time, and struggles to draw at home now. Bouwmeester is gone and Booth has been injured. The Panthers are in 13th and have actually played better on the road. They show promise, but how long can this team wait? Where is the hope? I like some of their young guys, but they can't afford to sit and wait.
#1-Toronto Maple Leafs. The Leafs are 6-5-4 away from home and are 2-7-2 at Air Canada. Only winning 2 games at home entering December is a tough pill to swallow. The pressure is always great on the Leafs, but obviously moving the #1 pick for Kessel has stepped that pressure up. I personally loved moving the #1 if for no other reason than it kills off the so-called "Tank Nation." This team must now compete and win. I believe that since Kessel has returned the Leafs have shown flashes, but without "The Monster" in goal it gets much harder.
Rumors later including the Return of Hockeybuzz Live Podcast at 4:30pm
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