During his end-of-season press conference, Flyers general manager Paul Holmgren was asked for his assessment of the second pro seasons of Sean Couturier and Brayden Schenn. His acknowledged that the offensive expectations may have been a little too high this season.
"We rely a lot on Brayden Schenn and Sean Couturier, they both played significant minutes this year," he said. "They probably had similar years than they had last year in terms of numbers if you prorate it, but obviously when you're playing those minutes maybe you expect a little more. Maybe our expectations were a little bit too high for those young guys. I think they're both good young players. They're going to continue to grow and get better. Sometimes you can't speed up that process no matter what you do. You just have to let time take care of it."
In Couturier's rookie season, he averaged 0.35 points per game in an average 14:08 of ice time. This past year, he averaged 0.33 points per game in an average 15:53 of ice time. Couturier's second-year goal output dropped from 13 goals on 116 shots on net (a shooting percentage of 11.2 percent) in 77 games to 4 goals on 75 shots (5.3 percent) in 46 games.
As a rookie, Couturier's season totals were buoyed by a five-game goal-scoring streak, spanning the games of Jan. 8 to Jan. 17, 2012. It was a rather remarkable hot streak in that it took place while Couturier was skating on the third or fourth lines, all the goals were tallied at even strength and four of the five goals were "sniper" goals scored off the line rush (the other one was a fluky bounce of the puck). The five goals were scored in 10 shots.
That is a tough hot streak for a checking line player to duplicate. In my opinion, the raised offensive expectations for the 20-year-old Couturier in his second NHL season were largely predicated on that five-game run and his playoff hat trick in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals. In retrospect, it was probably hoping for too much for Couturier to have a similar run this year.
Let's suppose for a moment that Couturier's five-game goal streak had happened this season rather than his rookie year. How much better would his season goal and point totals have looked in a lockout-shortened year, and how much would it have altered the doom-and-gloom perception that he "won't" progress as an offensive player in the future? Quite a bit, I'd argue, yet it still would have been an insignificantly small sample size of games upon which to pass a judgement one way or the other about his offensive potential.
Again, keep in mind just how short the 2013 regular season really was.
Couturier's five-game goal streak as a rookie took place in the Flyers' 41st to 46th games of the regular season (Couturier's 36th to 41st games played due to a December injury in which he got hit in the head by a Kimmo Timonen shot). Preceding Couturier's run of goals, he had gone 21 straight games without a goal but there was still a half-season's worth of games remaining on the schedule.
This year, Couturier had a 27-game goal drought this year, which gave him very little remaining time on the schedule from which to "rescue"his season offensively. He actually did put together a nice little four-game offensive run late in the 2013 season (one goal, four assists) and he averaged 0.53 points per game over the final 15 games of the season.
Is that late uptick a measure of progress? No, it's just another sliced-and-diced small sampling of games. The bigger point I'm getting at here is player's development curve is usually just that -- it's not a straight upward line. There are going to be peaks and valleys. In a short season, those ups and downs get magnified.
Here's a bigger and more important factor from a hockey standpoint: Look at Couturier's role in the lineup, who his linemates and opponents were and how frequently or infrequently he was even in situations where he could score goals.
Early this past season, over a span of the first four games or so, Couturier skated on the second line in the absence of Danny Briere. He struggled both offensively and defensively -- as did virtually the entire team -- despite tallying a pair of goals and three points in his first six games. The goals were a deflection against Buffalo in the season's second game, and a fluke early-game tally against Tampa Bay in the sixth game in which Couturier threw the puck in front from along the wall near the goal line and it was misplayed into the net by goaltender Anders Lindbäck.
Once Briere returned to the lineup, Couturier had been moved back down to the bottom six of the lineup at five-on-five. He did continue to see a fair amount of second unit power play time (an average 1:29 per game), sometimes on the point -- where he had frequently been used in the American Hockey League during the lockout -- and sometimes up front. Beyond that, however, Couturier's role returned to being primarily a defensive one.
Broad Street hockey did a detailed analysis of Couturier's
advanced stats this season. What they found supported the belief that, at age 20, Couturier is already one of the top defensive centers in the NHL. Couturier and the Flyers had a rough start to the season on the penalty kill, but the club picked things up dramatically and ended up near the top of the NHL in PK percentage.
Couturier's plus-minus rating at even strength took a steep downturn this year. However, when you look at actual meat-and-potatoes of the player's shifts on the ice, there were only a handful of opposition goals scored directly as a result of a turnover or blown coverage by Couturier. The mistakes usually happened elsewhere.
Plus-minus numbers aside, Couturier's defensive development actually continued at a solid clip from his strong defensive rookie season. In plain English terms, here's why:
* He was the Flyers center most likely to be on the ice against other teams' top scoring lines, game in and game out.
* A huge percentage of Couturier's shifts started out in the Flyers defensive zone. It is often VERY tough for a player to score on those shifts, especially when a team struggles on breakouts, when you are going up against the other side's most potent offensive talents and when your own faceoff skills are still a work in progress.
* Despite the disadvantageous zone starts, difficulty of opposition, Couturier's poor faceoff numbers and the Flyers' issues with getting the puck cleanly out of the defensive zone, the Flyers actually had more shot attempts and shots on goal than their opponents in Couturier's shifts. Although Couturier only started 32.1 percent of his shifts in the offensive zone (13th among Flyers forwards who played in 20 or more games), he finished in the offensive zone 44.7 percent of the time.
* Giveaways and takeaways are a subjective stat, but it should be noted that Couturier's puck-protection and puck-pursuit numbers were quite good. He was charged with just 19 giveaways and credited with 26 takeaways. Considering that he was often in the defensive zone under heavy pressure and facing lengthy shifts, this ratio suggests both his poise and his skill at getting the puck away from the player he's checking.
* What this means: Much of the time with Couturier on the ice, the Flyers were still able to get out of their defensive zone and push the puck to the other end of the ice. Yes, he was a minus-eight on the season but that was due to not having enough pluses rather than an actual downturn in his defensive play. Overall, Couturier is already the best defensive forward on the Flyers, and will only continue to improve in the years to come.
As far as Couturier's offense-to-defense balance goes, it's also helpful to look at which players were Couturier's most frequent five-on-five linemates this season. According to the
linemates chart on behindthenet.ca, Couturier's most common linemates in total time on the ice together were Max Talbot (33.9 percent of Couturier's shifts) and Matt Read (31.8 percent) with Kimmo Timonen and Luke Schenn on defense.
Couturier also played together quite a bit with Mike Knuble (23.8 percent) and/or Zac Rinaldo (17.1 percent) as his linemates. Couturier's forward lines were also frequently paired with Braydon Coburn's defensive units along with Nicklas Grossmann (23.9 percent) or Bruno Gervais (22.2 percent). Late in the season with the blueline riddled with injuries, Erik Gustafsson (19.9 percent) was often out on the ice when Couturier was.
Overall, most of Couturier's time on the ice was spent with forwards and/or defensemen whose primary roles on the team were NOT based on trying to score goals. Considering that Couturier himself was often disinclined to press the attack offensively, it was predictable that neither he nor his linemates would rack up a lot of pluses. Incidentally, Couturier's most productive offensive games tended to occur when Read was one of his linemates, which is also predictable.
As I see it, the biggest thing Couturier needs to work on is continuing to add more upper body muscle. He'll never be a real physical player and he'll never have blazing speed but he would be well served along the boards, around the net and on faceoff jostles to get a little physically stronger. Couturier's physical game, such as it is, did take a bit of a backward step in his second season. This is suggested by the decline in his credited hits-per-game from 1.06 to 0.67 this past year. That's an area where he needs to improve next season.
Apart from his defensive acumen, Couturier's best asset is his hands. Watch him some time at practice. He can consistently top-shelf pucks from a variety of shooting angles -- this talent was on display in quite a few of his 16 regular season/playoff goals as a rookie. I strongly suspect that he will consistently have double-digit shooting percentages in future
seasons rather than the dismal shooting numbers he had as a second-year NHL player.
Will Couturier ever be a dominant offensive player the way he was in junior hockey? It's possible, but that will depend both on his own continued development (such as continuing to add strength to his frame) and whether he earns -- and keeps -- more scoring-line duties in the future.
Part of the reason why Couturier didn't get more offensive zone starts with high-grade linemates this season is that he really didn't individually do all that much in the offensive zone when he had the chance. He didn't get to good shooting or passing areas. A lot of his shots were low-percentage offerings from the perimeter, from which he happened to score one of his goals but which rarely produced more than an offensive zone faceoff (and a line change) at most. He usually did his best work in the defensive and neutral zones, so Peter Laviolette preferred to confine him to those situations.
Over time, I think Couturier's offensive game will grow. He can still become an extremely valuable all-around NHL player even if he only evolves to being an 18-to-22 goal and 45 to 50 point player. The predictions that he could become a Selke Trophy caliber defensive forward are actually right on track considering that he won't even turn 21 until December.
Couturier's prime is still about four seasons away. He's right on schedule for sustained defensive dominance. Offensively, his second season was a lateral or very slightly backward step from his rookie promise, particularly in light of his half-season of top-line and second-line use in the AHL during the NHL lockout. But it really wasn't the offensive disaster some painted it to be. It was a just-turned 20-year-old who had the equivalent of a rough half-season in the offensive zone while primarily performing defensive duties.
As far as the trade rumors go, it certainly stands to reason that other NHL teams ask for Couturier in any deal for a defenseman. In my view, I would be hesitant to trade Couturier one-on-one for most of the defensemen in the NHL and it would take a Norris Trophy caliber player coming back this way to even consider for a moment packaging Couturier (or Brayden Schenn) along with other assets.
Coming tomorrow: An in-depth look at the second season development of Brayden Schenn as an offensive, defensive and physical player.
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