It's been quite a while since the St. Louis Blues faced off against the Tampa Bay Lightning in a game that counted for more than bragging rights between old friends on the other team.
Saturday night will be their first regular season meeting since the 2011-12 season. In those two most recent games the Blues outscored Tampa six to one, but have won only one of five other contests dating back to the 2005-06 season.
To push the win streak to three against the Lightning they will have to contain scoring star Steven Stamkos. The top pick in the 2008 draft has 10 goals and 19 points in 13 games. Putting him only two goals behind St. Louis' own Alexander Steen and three points behind Pittsburgh's Sidney Crosby for the league lead in both categories. Frequent linemate, Martin St. Louis, is tied for 6th in league scoring with 16 points.
Containing Stamkos will be the toughest test for Blues captain David Backes and his line. Even in the losses to San Jose and Vancouver the group did not break. They barely bent. Friday against the Panthers Backes and TJ Oshie did not cross the 20 minutes played barrier. Only Steen and the top pairing comprised of Alex Pietrangelo and Jay Bouwmeester did. The reduction in should keep that five man unit fresher to tackle Tampa's best line.
Tampa GM Steve Yzerman has built a motley blue line with a well aged blend of skill and physicality. Matt Carle is their leading minutes eater with an ATOI surpassing 23 minutes. He also has a goal and eight points to his credit. Victor Hedman, the second overall pick in 2011, routinely sees more than 20 minutes of ice time and has six points in 13 games. At 6'6 and 229 lbs Hedman will make it difficult for Blues forwards to get in to prime goal scoring areas. The rest of the crew is made up of savvy veterans like Sami Salo and former Blues captain Eric Brewer.
It will be interesting to watch how their defense adapts to an aggressive forecheck carried out by four capable lines. If unable the Blues will attack and cycle the Bolts to death.
THe keys for the Blues are two fold. One is obvious and already state. Stamkos and St. Louis must be stopped. That will force the secondary attack of Ryan Malone, Teddy Purcell, and Valtteri Filppula to do the damage that makes the difference. Second is to stay out of the penalty box. Tampa's power play is ranked 7th at 22.6% currently. They're even better at home (23.5%). That said, the Blues penalty kill is tied for the best in the NHL at 100% with 11 consecutive kills.
Jaroslav Halak will return to the crease after a night off. Bench boss Ken Hitchcock's "shutout rule" will not be followed after Brian Elliotts 30 save blanking of the Panthers. Halak is 7-1-1 in nine starts with a 2.15 GAA, .917 save %, and a shutout. His career line against the Bolts: 2-1-0, 2.35 GAA, .908 save %.
Former Blues netminder Ben Bishop is not likely to get the start as he shutout the Hurricanes 3-0 Friday in Carolina. Anders Lindback is the likely starter. Nothing has been confirmed yet.
The lines and pairings for the Blues are not likely to change much. Projection:
Steen - Backes - Oshie
Roy - Sobotka - Stewart
Schwartz - Berglund - Tarasenko
Porter/Cracknell - Lapierre - Reaves
Bouwmeester - Pietrangelo
Jackman - Shattenkirk
Leopold - Polak
What to Watch For?
-- Possession. Tampa ranks 23rd in 5 on 5 Corsi For % and 22nd in Fenwick For %. The Blues rank 6th in both. Tampa's four losses have come to teams ranked 5th-10th in CF%. Five of their nine wins against Buffalo, Florida, and Carolina. The team with the highest possession rating is Carolina at 17th. The only team they've beaten with high possession capability was Chicago. It took the shootout in their first meeting and OT in the second.
-- Starts and stops. Tampa relies on Stamkos and St. Louis to produce predominantly from maximizing their offensive zone starts. Not as much as the Blues have done with Derek Roy and Chris Stewart or how Vancouver uses the Sedins, but their offensive zone start percentage pushes 60%. Teddy Purcell, their top possession player, is at 66%. The Blues need to find ways to sustain offensive zone pressure to limit chances for head coach Jon Cooper to get the matchup he wants.
-- Valtteri Filppula. There is a good reason why the Blues were trying to sign him over the summer. Through 13 games he has 4 goals on 14 shots for the top shooting percentage on the team. The quality of competition he faces is second highest (1.619) and his offensive zone start percentage is third lowest (47%). If anyone is going to beat the Blues if they can blank Stamkos and St. Louis, its the Finnish center.
Pick the Goal Scorer
Get your guesses in now for the contest. Just add a comment with your pick for who will score the Blues' first goal. Win prizes and such later in the season.
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St Louis Blues Blogger • 
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